Walker Jenkins and the Path to the Twins Opening Day Roster

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not assuming the rules in the next CBA remain the same, you are. I think there will be some changes made. It's just two viewpoints. We can both be certain of one thing - we don't know what changes will be made within the next CBA.

He will have already debuted.  The chances of them applying new rules retroactively are 1/10 of one percent.  

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I am not sure of your point.  I didn't offer an opinion on Skenes.  The question before us is if it's worth a year of control for Jenkin's in his prime to gain a few weeks in 2026 when the team has virtually no chance of being a contender.  You have often stated your priority is building a true contender.  What will the team gain by getting an extra month of Jenkins in 2026?  

The point is that you aren't guaranteed that extra year. The Pirates didn't get an extra year with Skenes. They didn't call him up until well after the service time cutoff date, but he was still awarded a full year of service time for winning rookie of the year. The Pirates could've gained an extra first round draft pick from that extra time with Skenes in the majors. But instead, they gained nothing at all. That's a very bad value proposition, I'd say.

So, if you're going to manipulate service time with the elite prospects of the world, you better manipulate it hard. Better hold him out half the season. And if you're going to hold him out for half the season in 2026, why not just hold him out the whole thing and see what happens in 2027 with a potential lockout and maybe you don't have to start his clock until he's 23 or 24 and you get his whole prime without ever having to pay him.

[bunsen82]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The point is that you aren't guaranteed that extra year. The Pirates didn't get an extra year with Skenes. They didn't call him up until well after the service time cutoff date, but he was still awarded a full year of service time for winning rookie of the year. The Pirates could've gained an extra first round draft pick from that extra time with Skenes in the majors. But instead, they gained nothing at all. That's a very bad value proposition, I'd say.

So, if you're going to manipulate service time with the elite prospects of the world, you better manipulate it hard. Better hold him out half the season. And if you're going to hold him out for half the season in 2026, why not just hold him out the whole thing and see what happens in 2027 with a potential lockout and maybe you don't have to start his clock until he's 23 or 24 and you get his whole prime without ever having to pay him.

I am ok with what you are suggesting chpettit.  We will see if they plan to bring up at the start of the season, otherwise we will be on Walker Jenkins watch the rest of the year.    If they do bring him up for a cup of coffee at the end of the season it does increase the probabilities they are willing to bring him up at the start of the season.   

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The point is that you aren't guaranteed that extra year. The Pirates didn't get an extra year with Skenes. They didn't call him up until well after the service time cutoff date, but he was still awarded a full year of service time for winning rookie of the year. The Pirates could've gained an extra first round draft pick from that extra time with Skenes in the majors. But instead, they gained nothing at all. That's a very bad value proposition, I'd say.

So, if you're going to manipulate service time with the elite prospects of the world, you better manipulate it hard. Better hold him out half the season. And if you're going to hold him out for half the season in 2026, why not just hold him out the whole thing and see what happens in 2027 with a potential lockout and maybe you don't have to start his clock until he's 23 or 24 and you get his whole prime without ever having to pay him.

Your "what if" is a valid consideration but what would you estimate the odds are Jenkins wins ROY?  My guess is less than 20% so I am not making decisions based on that assumption.  

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Your "what if" is a valid consideration but what would you estimate the odds are Jenkins wins ROY?  My guess is less than 20% so I am not making decisions based on that assumption.  

If Baltimore lets Basallo play out the rest of the season and exhaust his rookie eligibility (stupid move) and the Twins put Jenkins on their opening day roster, there'd be a very good chance he's the odds on favorite to win. He'd be the best prospect in the AL with the most opportunity. Give that whatever percent you want. And then you're talking about adding another late first round pick to the minor league system which is a wonderful value add to the Twins chances of building a true contender if they can add another Keaschall with that pick.

[IndianaTwin]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If Baltimore lets Basallo play out the rest of the season and exhaust his rookie eligibility (stupid move) and the Twins put Jenkins on their opening day roster, there'd be a very good chance he's the odds on favorite to win. He'd be the best prospect in the AL with the most opportunity. Give that whatever percent you want. And then you're talking about adding another late first round pick to the minor league system which is a wonderful value add to the Twins chances of building a true contender if they can add another Keaschall with that pick.

The Orioles won’t let Basallo exhaust his rookie eligibility. They pretty openly announced that they weren’t going to bring up Beavers and Basallo in time for them to get 45 service days. If they made the service time statement that openly, they aren’t going to let either of them get 130 at bats either. 

This isn’t a statement against Jenkins starting the season on the roster. I think there’s a reasonable chance they are positioning him to do so. Just a statement saying it’s also pretty likely Basallo will still be a rookie, 

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

The Orioles won’t let Basallo exhaust his rookie eligibility. They pretty openly announced that they weren’t going to bring up Beavers and Basallo in time for them to get 45 service days. If they made the service time statement that openly, they aren’t going to let either of them get 130 at bats either. 

This isn’t a statement against Jenkins starting the season on the roster. I think there’s a reasonable chance they are positioning him to do so. Just a statement saying it’s also pretty likely Basallo will still be a rookie, 

I hadn't seen that, thanks for the info. Smart move by them. I think getting your elite prospect's feet wet the year before and then letting them have a full go at the RoY award the next year is the smart move.

[jorgenswest]

The pick should not be a factor. By the time the draft gets into the 30s there is a pretty small chance of a significant major league career. Of the players drafted and signed at pick 31 you will find Greg Maddux and then Jarrod Washburn. No one else has surpassed 10 career WAR.

I have no idea if Jenkins will give them the better chance of winning games next April. The Twins need him though. This organization needs hope. He ought to have a chance to win the job in spring training. I wouldn’t worry about the year of service time either though I think it has more potential value than a pick in the 30s.

They shouldn’t make the decision based on a pick or service time. They need to get this man in a major league uniform when they determine he can help them win games. I hope it is opening day next year. They need to send a massage that winning is top priority from day one next year.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I hadn't seen that, thanks for the info. Smart move by them. I think getting your elite prospect's feet wet the year before and then letting them have a full go at the RoY award the next year is the smart move.

Here’s the quote. Maybe not quite as explicit as I was remembering, but not hard to read between the lines: 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/mike-elias-discusses-possible-prospect-promotions.html

They brought Beavers up the very day that gives him 45 days. The Mets did the same with Nolan McLean. A couple of other teams did it in the next several days.

I agree it was a smart move. Who knows what the next CBA brings, but if this rule stays the same, I think this will become pretty common practice. 

[gman]

Anymore I don't know if it so much is the player ready for the majors it's more about will the coaching staff be ready to work with the player. Maybe they need a transitional staff? In any case since the Twins will have one of the top 3 selections in next years draft, I think they should plan to work with the minor league players from the first foot in the door next spring.

[The Great Hambino]

23 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I am not sure of your point.  I didn't offer an opinion on Skenes.  The question before us is if it's worth a year of control for Jenkin's in his prime to gain a few weeks in 2026 when the team has virtually no chance of being a contender.  You have often stated your priority is building a true contender.  What will the team gain by getting an extra month of Jenkins in 2026?  

I'm not saying it automatically overrides the potential of an extra year of his prime (which is not a certainty if his service time gets manipulated like you suggest - that assumes he has no setbacks in his development that would require a future stay in the minors; it also assumes no material change to service time rules in a CBA that looks like it's prime for several material changes), but you have to at least acknowledge the chance bringing him up to start the year results in an additional first round pick - and the slot dollars that come along with it.  Does that override an extra prime year if service time rules don't change and he sticks immediately? I don't know, probably not.  But it is an element in the equation.

Also, you run the risk of a Kris Bryant-esque grievance if his service time gets manipulated that blatantly.  In fact, doesn't he get credited with a full year of service time anyway if he finishes top 2 in rookie of the year balloting?

[Major League Ready]

49 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I'm not saying it automatically overrides the potential of an extra year of his prime (which is not a certainty if his service time gets manipulated like you suggest - that assumes he has no setbacks in his development that would require a future stay in the minors; it also assumes no material change to service time rules in a CBA that looks like it's prime for several material changes), but you have to at least acknowledge the chance bringing him up to start the year results in an additional first round pick - and the slot dollars that come along with it.  Does that override an extra prime year if service time rules don't change and he sticks immediately? I don't know, probably not.  But it is an element in the equation.

Also, you run the risk of a Kris Bryant-esque grievance if his service time gets manipulated that blatantly.  In fact, doesn't he get credited with a full year of service time anyway if he finishes top 2 in rookie of the year balloting?

Jenkins is going to play a max of 21 games at AAA,  He would have to have video game numbers at AA and AAA to warrant calling holding him down manipulation.  His number at AA were good but nowhere near what Bryant accomplished.  Bryant had an OPS of 1160 at AA the year before he made the big-league club. in 2014.  He was promoted to AAA and had an OPS of 1057 over 70 games.  J It will not be a blatant manipulation even if he has an 1100 OPS.   

The new CBA will be agreed upon after Jenkins debuts unless things go terribly wrong.  There is not going to be retroactive application of service time.  

[The Great Hambino]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

Jenkins is going to play a max of 21 games at AAA,  He would have to have video game numbers at AA and AAA to warrant calling holding him down manipulation.  His number at AA were good but nowhere near what Bryant accomplished.  Bryant had an OPS of 1160 at AA the year before he made the big-league club. in 2014.  He was promoted to AAA and had an OPS of 1057 over 70 games.  J It will not be a blatant manipulation even if he has an 1100 OPS.   

The new CBA will be agreed upon after Jenkins debuts unless things go terribly wrong.  There is not going to be retroactive application of service time.  

I'm talking about the possibility of free agency being divorced from service time altogether (I didn't express that very well in my original comment).  Some proposals that have been thrown around peg free agency to age or years since their initial pro contract, similar to how rule 5 eligibility is determined.  That would definitely put an end to service time manipulation - which holding Jenkins down for three weeks absolutely would be, regardless of how blatant it appears compared to the most blatant case on record. 

Now how about the draft pick and rookie of the year implications?

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 8/24/2025 at 8:46 AM, LyleCole said:

Again, the Twins need to be aggressive in rebuilding.  

I would commit to having an outfield of Jenkins-Buxton-Rodriguez (if you don't trade Buxton in offseason).  I would start the season with Kaelen Culpepper as the starting shortstop.    These guys are the top prospects in the system, and if they cannot replace the players we have on the roster then having them play more in minor league baseball will not make a difference.

Pushing them gets the rebuild process that much faster.  Delaying just drags out another terrible to mediocre year for Twins fans watching Jonah Bride and DeShawn Keirsey level players lose for no purpose.  AS the greatest core group of players in Twins history proved, you have to take your lumps at the major league level, but if the players are real talents they will develop and develop together.   

I agree with your theory of pushing players now while we're in a rebuild (that's what this is). Love the idea of Jenkins starting next year in LF. I can't agree on Rodriguez. He's not ready and isn't ever healthy. My thought of the "push ahead to build quickly 2026 roister":

OF - Buxton, Jenkins, Wallner, Martin, Fedko/Gonzalez/Outman

IF - Keaschall (1B), Lee (SS), Lewis (3B), K Culpepper (2B), Clemens (1B/2B/OF), Eeles/Holland (UTL)

C - Jeffers, Vasquez (yup, the team ERA since he got hurt shows his value) or vet glove first FA

SP - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Bradley

RP - Topa, Sands, Hatch, Funderburk, Festa, SWR, Coulombe, Ohl/Lawyerson/FA/RP acquired by trading Larnach. Festa and Topa start as co-closers, Festa is closer by mid-season. 

Gone (or in AAA as Depth) - Larnach, Julien, Tonkin, Kriske, Cabrera, Gaspar, Fitzgerald, Tonkin

AAA rotation - Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Klein, CJ Culpepper, Morris, Raya 

This team is more athletic, faster, but inexperienced and the bullpen is a question mark. Rotation is a real strength without injury and has real depth. On offense, run wild like they are now. Buxton and Keaschall should have 20+ stolen bases, Lee, Lews, Martin, Wallner, Jenkins, and Culpepper should have at least 10. We're going to need to manufacture runs and now you have the pieces to do that. Help the bullpen and starters with a number 2 catcher like Vasquez; Jeffers is the DH when he doesn't catch. Put Culpeper at 2B because Lee has come alive since becoming the starting SS. Really try hard to trade Larnach (plus prospect(s) if necessary) for an established average or better reliever or sign one as a FA. Hatch and SWR are 2 plus innings at a time guys. They cover the 4 or 5 inning starts and start on short notice when necessary. No more inning at a time in the middle innings. Bring back Coulombe as the second LH. Topa, Sands, Festa, Funderburk, Coulombe, and the FA handle the late innings - bring your antacids. 

This team could win 85-90 games; it could win 70-75 games. Wide variation but more fun to watch and better positioned to get better as the year goes on. 

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with your theory of pushing players now while we're in a rebuild (that's what this is). Love the idea of Jenkins starting next year in LF. I can't agree on Rodriguez. He's not ready and isn't ever healthy. My thought of the "push ahead to build quickly 2026 roister":

OF - Buxton, Jenkins, Wallner, Martin, Fedko/Gonzalez/Outman

IF - Keaschall (1B), Lee (SS), Lewis (3B), K Culpepper (2B), Clemens (1B/2B/OF), Eeles/Holland (UTL)

C - Jeffers, Vasquez (yup, the team ERA since he got hurt shows his value) or vet glove first FA

SP - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Bradley

RP - Topa, Sands, Hatch, Funderburk, Festa, SWR, Coulombe, Ohl/Lawyerson/FA/RP acquired by trading Larnach. Festa and Topa start as co-closers, Festa is closer by mid-season. 

Gone (or in AAA as Depth) - Larnach, Julien, Tonkin, Kriske, Cabrera, Gaspar, Fitzgerald, Tonkin

AAA rotation - Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Klein, CJ Culpepper, Morris, Raya 

This team is more athletic, faster, but inexperienced and the bullpen is a question mark. Rotation is a real strength without injury and has real depth. On offense, run wild like they are now. Buxton and Keaschall should have 20+ stolen bases, Lee, Lews, Martin, Wallner, Jenkins, and Culpepper should have at least 10. We're going to need to manufacture runs and now you have the pieces to do that. Help the bullpen and starters with a number 2 catcher like Vasquez; Jeffers is the DH when he doesn't catch. Put Culpeper at 2B because Lee has come alive since becoming the starting SS. Really try hard to trade Larnach (plus prospect(s) if necessary) for an established average or better reliever or sign one as a FA. Hatch and SWR are 2 plus innings at a time guys. They cover the 4 or 5 inning starts and start on short notice when necessary. No more inning at a time in the middle innings. Bring back Coulombe as the second LH. Topa, Sands, Festa, Funderburk, Coulombe, and the FA handle the late innings - bring your antacids. 

This team could win 85-90 games; it could win 70-75 games. Wide variation but more fun to watch and better positioned to get better as the year goes on. 

Next year is Rodriguez's last option year. Whether he's ready or not it's time for him to get as much MLB time as possible. I wouldn't use that option on opening day unless he's the worst hitter they have in camp. Certainly not burning his last option to get Fedko, Clemens, or Will Holland on the roster.

And tying the team ERA to Vazquez's injury when they're running this pitching staff out there is pretty aggressive. In the 3 years Vazquez has been here, the team has had a better ERA with Jeffers behind the plate than Vazquez behind the plate. His injury is not the reason a staff full of guys most posters (die hard baseball fanatics) have never even heard of are pitching poorly. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I didn't see that next year is Rodriguez's last option year. If that's the case, he's got to be the 4th/5th OF next year behind Buxton, Jenkins, and Wallner, and it's a fight between Martin, Outman, and Fedko for the other backup OF job with Martin probably winning that job.  

On the catching side, I'm influenced by the change in Ryan's performance after losing Vasquez who kind of became his personal catcher. My point is we need a backup, can't be Micky Gasar (shudder), and Vasquez has the history and rapport with these pitchers. You're right that Genesis Cabrera and Blake Kriske at the very least should not be gracing a big league mound and that's the root problem. Still, I want a good catcher to team with Jeffers next year like Vasquez or Austin Hedges, not a good bat who also catches like Danny Jansen.I wh ishwe had someone ready at AAA but I just think we don't.  

[Otaknam]

On 8/24/2025 at 6:35 AM, The Mad King said:

Seems like that rule could also work the opposite way. Keeping a player down an extra season to get that extra pick...

Let's say he doesn't break camp and he's sent to St Paul. Why bring him up in June or July instead of just wait till the next season? Especially if you're not in contention. 

Because that would be management malfeasance to hold a top young prospect back who could help the team now, just to reduce his service time and hold out for another draft pick the next year. That’s why MLB has the new program, to incentivize promotion to the big leagues instead stashing minor leaguers to delay free agency. And it’s not like the NFL OR NBA, where draft choices are easier to scout and project than in baseball, where deciding who to draft can be a bit of a crapshoot. 

[LyleCole]

On 8/28/2025 at 1:43 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I didn't see that next year is Rodriguez's last option year. If that's the case, he's got to be the 4th/5th OF next year behind Buxton, Jenkins, and Wallner, and it's a fight between Martin, Outman, and Fedko for the other backup OF job with Martin probably winning that job.  

On the catching side, I'm influenced by the change in Ryan's performance after losing Vasquez who kind of became his personal catcher. My point is we need a backup, can't be Micky Gasar (shudder), and Vasquez has the history and rapport with these pitchers. You're right that Genesis Cabrera and Blake Kriske at the very least should not be gracing a big league mound and that's the root problem. Still, I want a good catcher to team with Jeffers next year like Vasquez or Austin Hedges, not a good bat who also catches like Danny Jansen.I wh ishwe had someone ready at AAA but I just think we don't.  

Rodriguez who has been ranked in the top 3 prospect for many years has to be the starter in RF. 

The concept of "isn't ready" isn't  the proper way of evaluating the decision.  Of course he will not "be ready" for major league baseball.   Very few young players are when they reach that level.  There is a developmental curve for almost every player at the major league level.  When you rebuild you expect the young players you put into the lineup to "not be ready".  You expect to LOSE games.

But those losses are an investment in the future of the team.  Long time Minnesota Twins fans know that the 1982 team wasn't ready and they put 22 year old Frank Viola out on the mound despite his 5.21 ERA and 4-10 record (followed up by a 5.49 ERA in 1983) knowing he "wasn't ready".

And, as the 1982 team knew the other aspect of rebuilding is who the hell else are you going to throw there?  Mickey Gasper (29 yo, .479 OPS), DaShawn Keirsey (28, .324 OPS), Jonah Bride (29, .511 OPS), James Outman (28, .456 OPS), Ryan Fitzgeral (31, .551 OPS).  Throw Genesis Cabrera and Noah Davis out on the mound to "eat up innings" and a bunch of 30+ pitchers like Jose Urena, Erasmo Ramirez, Brooks Kriske, Joey Wents (not 30+ but hey), Anthony Misiewics?

IF Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodrigquez, Kaelen Culpepper cannot hit better than the guys I listed above then we have overrated them so badly that the scouts should be ashamed.   And if we do not have pitchers in the system who cannot pitch better than these below replacement level players then that should make the entire organization ashamed.

The last point, and I know I dragged on, is another factor of the 1982 rebuild that should make it a model is that basically the entire roster was in the "same phase".   They came up together.  They lost together.  They got better together.  They won together.  Half way measures give half way results.  I don't think the Twins management will do this because I think they believe they can at least contend for a wild card spot by filling in low level replacement players around Lewis, Buxton, Lee, Wallner Lopez, Ryan, and Ober, finding a cheap but somewhat mediocre closer and set up guy.  I don't think it is possible but I don't run the team.