Walker Jenkins and the Path to the Twins Opening Day Roster

[LyleCole]

40 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Well my point is semi moot as they have moved Jenkins to AAA. 
 

You asked who they will play in the outfield. Currently Larnach and Wallner. Jenkins wouldn’t be called up to be a 4th outfielder like Kiersey or Outman.  The guess is Larnach will no longer be on the team. Roden, Rodriguez, Gonzalez and now Jenkins are all possibilities to fill that hole.  The odds for Jenkins has gone up especially if he does well in AAA. 

So you think a couple of weeks of AAA will make a difference?   I am not against promoting Walker,  I am just saying the AAA seasoning isn't required if the player is going to be good.

Gary Gaetti  number of ABs in AAA - 0  Age debut 22

Kent Hrbek number of ABs in AAA - 0  (Nbr of ABs in AA - 0)  Age debut  21

Tom Brunansky  number of ABs in AAA 343  Age debut 20

Kirby Puckett  number of ABs in AAA  80  Age debut 24

You can either hit, or you can't.  

While Larnach etc might be on the roster, they make no difference to winning or losing. We will just be mediocre at best plugging them into the lineup.   Rodriguez, Culpepper, Jenkins are the future of the team.  Move them up.  Let them develop now at the MLB so they take their lumps like Frank VIola did in 82 and 83, as well as many of the other developing players sooner rather than later. 

This also plays into the ownership reducing payroll, so we might as well do it in 2026 rather than 2027 or later. 

 

 

 

 

[bunsen82]

12 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

So you think a couple of weeks of AAA will make a difference?   I am not against promoting Walker,  I am just saying the AAA seasoning isn't required if the player is going to be good.

Gary Gaetti  number of ABs in AAA - 0  Age debut 22

Kent Hrbek number of ABs in AAA - 0  (Nbr of ABs in AA - 0)  Age debut  21

Tom Brunansky  number of ABs in AAA 343  Age debut 20

Kirby Puckett  number of ABs in AAA  80  Age debut 24

You can either hit, or you can't.  

While Larnach etc might be on the roster, they make no difference to winning or losing. We will just be mediocre at best plugging them into the lineup.   Rodriguez, Culpepper, Jenkins are the future of the team.  Move them up.  Let them develop now at the MLB so they take their lumps like Frank VIola did in 82 and 83, as well as many of the other developing players sooner rather than later. 

This also plays into the ownership reducing payroll, so we might as well do it in 2026 rather than 2027 or later. 

 

 

 

 

You are basing this off of players in the 80’s.  Swanson and Benintendi are the last in MLB that I am aware of that played minor leagues then skipped AAA. You then have Crochet and Ryan Johnson who debuted at MLB level.  This is a different era. No I don’t think it’ll make a difference. I’m still thinking mid season.  But at least now if he does well I could understand if they started to plan for him to start with the big league team. 

[LyleCole]

43 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

You are basing this off of players in the 80’s.  Swanson and Benintendi are the last in MLB that I am aware of that played minor leagues then skipped AAA. You then have Crochet and Ryan Johnson who debuted at MLB level.  This is a different era. No I don’t think it’ll make a difference. I’m still thinking mid season.  But at least now if he does well I could understand if they started to plan for him to start with the big league team. 

I think your counter is pretty simplistic in that it was a "different era".  It still had the same development structure and similar timelines.  

Whatever Kaelen Culpepper's career potential is it will not be different if he skipped AAA completely and started as the Twins SS game 1 in 2026.  He either is a good player or he is not.  He could make the MLB adjustments starting in 2026 rather than 2027 or later.  The only difference is that his rookie/develomental mistakes will create losses at the big league level rather than less impactful minor league games.  But when you rebuild, wins and losses are immaterial.  Development is the key.

As I have demonstrated, the Twins development approach has not really worked with the vast majority of their internally developed players.  Since the ownership will not spend money to bring in higher cost players they depend on these developed players to make up the team.  Unless we get huge turnarounds by Lewis and a huge jump in Brooks Lee, Wallner, and a couple other players, and perhaps another above expectation years similar to Kerschall along with a return to form for Lopez and Ober, we will have another poor year out of contention.  

The other aspect of "pushing" players is that not every one of your prospects, even your top level guys, will be successful.  In the Twins original core group of what would be their 87/91 World Series team Jimmy Eisenreich was the starting CF jumping all the way from low A in 1981 to starting in MLB baseball in 1982 and Lenny Faedo, their 1978 first round pick was the starting SS.  Eisenreich had health issues and Faedo couldn't hit.   But by 1984 and 1985 they replaced them with better players (although that is a bit unfair to Jimmy because he was playing very well) in Kirby Puckett and Greg Gagne.  

If you delay getting the player to the big leagues in a rebuild, you delay getting the determination of who is going to be the quality players and who will not.  IN a franchise that cannot buy its way to success, this time frame is very important.  

Get the main group of prospects to the Twins next year and start the rebuild now rather than pretending the team is something they are not and keeping the low end mediocrity going.  Of the 12 players that had plate appearances in today's bust of a game against the White Sox, half are low end replacement players at best (Outman, Fitzgerald, Clemens, Gasper, Julien, Martin).  Why bother.  At least on the mound, as bad as the starter was, getting Bradley and Ohl innings at this level is important.  Just like how the Twins handed the ball to Frank Viola in 1982 and 83 when he had ERA's above 5.00, they need to get Ohl, Abel, and Bradley the innings to close out the year.  

[Whitey333]

I am just so skeptical about the Twins ability to develop top prospects at the major league level.  IMO the have ruined or hurt the careers of too many so called can't miss prospects.  Jenkins and the other prospects deserve better.  The clown show of Falve and Baldelli must be terminated for Jenkins and others to have a chance to achieve their true potential.

[LambchoP]

I think they should let him play out the season in St Paul. Give him an invite to major league spring training to see how he does against better talent. Start the year in AAA and if/when he forces the issue, call him up. I'd do the same with Fedko. Once it looks like Jenkins, Fedko, Rodriguez, Gonzalez or Rosario start to look like they're ready for MLB, we can finally move on from Wallner and Larnach.

[MesaTwinsFan]

Bring them all up and maybe we have a low minor manager or coach that can relate and not make all decisions based on computer algorithms

[umterp23]

11 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

You are basing this off of players in the 80’s.  Swanson and Benintendi are the last in MLB that I am aware of that played minor leagues then skipped AAA. You then have Crochet and Ryan Johnson who debuted at MLB level.  This is a different era. No I don’t think it’ll make a difference. I’m still thinking mid season.  But at least now if he does well I could understand if they started to plan for him to start with the big league team. 

Everyone seems to not remember that Jeffers skipped AAA during Covid year in ‘20. Graver took one foul ball to you know what man parts and Jeffers was called up from extended training camp. Finished the year with twins that year. Then he made big league roster in ‘21 coming out of spring camp. Wasn’t playing a bunch and sent down to AAA for month of may. Returned in June of that year to big league club. Rehab assignment in late ‘21 for broken bone in hand. So total of 33 games in AAA. 
 

Some promotion scenarios are done out of need, injury, skill, etc. Jenkins and others now have that opportunity in front of them. 

[hitterscount]

12 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

You are basing this off of players in the 80’s.  Swanson and Benintendi are the last in MLB that I am aware of that played minor leagues then skipped AAA. You then have Crochet and Ryan Johnson who debuted at MLB level.  This is a different era. No I don’t think it’ll make a difference. I’m still thinking mid season.  But at least now if he does well I could understand if they started to plan for him to start with the big league team. 

80's 90's.... players are players. This is about manipulation and money.... which is wise if you have a real MLB roster and there isn't room for high performing minor league players. This isn't the case for this team. We have 3-4 MLB players (if that) in our lineup. When you have a real FO that can field a real team, that can stockpile talent, than options  are there to manipulate team control, eg... holding a player back as a replacement for a player that the team plans on moving on from or using the minor leaguer as trade capital. None of this is the case for this FO... If Jenkins, Culpepper can play they should be up here next year. But this FO and manager are clueless without a plan.

[jorgenswest]

They aren’t going to know if he is ready. No team really knows. One thing in his favor is his glove. If he has struggles at the plate he still should have a plus glove on a corner while he grows with his bat. He needs a real shot to win the job in the spring.

[chpettit19]

14 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

You are basing this off of players in the 80’s.  Swanson and Benintendi are the last in MLB that I am aware of that played minor leagues then skipped AAA. You then have Crochet and Ryan Johnson who debuted at MLB level.  This is a different era. No I don’t think it’ll make a difference. I’m still thinking mid season.  But at least now if he does well I could understand if they started to plan for him to start with the big league team. 

Jackson Merrill (totally skipped AAA before he debuted at age 20), Jackson Chourio (24 AAA PAs before he debuted at age 20), Nolan Schanuel (totally skipped AAA and debuted at age 21 the year he was drafted), Zach Neto (16 AAA PAs before he debuted), Michael Harris (completely skipped AAA before debuting at age 21).

Those are just off the top of my head. This isn't a different era. These are all guys who've skipped, or essentially skipped, AAA in the last 3 years. Shoot, Jackson Merrill moved to a position he'd never played in his life in spring training at the age of 20 and debuted in the majors at that position on opening day last year. Swanson and Benintendi are absolutely not the last MLB players to skip AAA. It's happening more and more. Jenkins debuting on opening day would not be weird at all. You have a pretty nice lineup going with the 5 guys I listed above. Better than the Twins lineup. And they didn't need AAA.

[bunsen82]

44 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Jackson Merrill (totally skipped AAA before he debuted at age 20), Jackson Chourio (24 AAA PAs before he debuted at age 20), Nolan Schanuel (totally skipped AAA and debuted at age 21 the year he was drafted), Zach Neto (16 AAA PAs before he debuted), Michael Harris (completely skipped AAA before debuting at age 21).

Those are just off the top of my head. This isn't a different era. These are all guys who've skipped, or essentially skipped, AAA in the last 3 years. Shoot, Jackson Merrill moved to a position he'd never played in his life in spring training at the age of 20 and debuted in the majors at that position on opening day last year. Swanson and Benintendi are absolutely not the last MLB players to skip AAA. It's happening more and more. Jenkins debuting on opening day would not be weird at all. You have a pretty nice lineup going with the 5 guys I listed above. Better than the Twins lineup. And they didn't need AAA.

Neto played A+, AA and AAA and debutted in 2023.  He was also 22 years old. (angels)

Schanuel yes skipped AAA.   But also 21 (angels)  

Chourio - Had been in the minor league system for 4 years before debuted yes he was young.  1080 minor league at bats.  Chourio had also already signed an extension through 2031 with 2 option years.   There was no games to be played with service time.  

Merrill -  Yes skipped AAA but again had been in the minor league system for 3 years.   750 minor league at bats.  

So yes - with the best of best players you are taking a college player and advancing them quickly.  You have an organizational philosophy of pushing them hard  - Angels account for 3 of the cases (they also have a minor league and major league system that is devoid of talent).   Or high school draft picks that have been in the system for around 3 years and at 750 to 1000 minor league at bats.  

 

Walker Jenkins is just at 600 at bats.   So yes can it happen yes.  It is extremely rare.  There are either certain organization more willing to do it.  In this case the Twins have already moved him up.  If you read my post later I already said my point was null.  

The argument was bringing up 6-7 players from the 80's just from the Twins when it was a much more prevalent situation than it is now.     

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Neto played A+, AA and AAA and debutted in 2023.  He was also 22 years old. (angels)

Schanuel yes skipped AAA.   But also 21 (angels)  

Chourio - Had been in the minor league system for 4 years before debuted yes he was young.  1080 minor league at bats.  Chourio had also already signed an extension through 2031 with 2 option years.   There was no games to be played with service time.  

Merrill -  Yes skipped AAA but again had been in the minor league system for 3 years.   750 minor league at bats.  

So yes - with the best of best players you are taking a college player and advancing them quickly.  You have an organizational philosophy of pushing them hard  - Angels account for 3 of the cases (they also have a minor league and major league system that is devoid of talent).   Or high school draft picks that have been in the system for around 3 years and at 750 to 1000 minor league at bats.  

 

Walker Jenkins is just at 600 at bats.   So yes can it happen yes.  It is extremely rare.  There are either certain organization more willing to do it.  In this case the Twins have already moved him up.  If you read my post later I already said my point was null.  

The argument was bringing up 6-7 players from the 80's just from the Twins when it was a much more prevalent situation than it is now.     

Jenkins will be 21 next year. Let's not act like Neto being 22 is some crazy difference. Your argument everywhere else is that it's about "minor league at bats," but now it's age? Neto had fewer than 200 minor league at bats before his debut. But he was 22 and had a whopping 16 plate appearances in AAA. That's your argument?

Again, Jenkins will be 21 before next season. So, that's the same as Schanuel who has, to this day, a staggering 97 plate appearances in minor league baseball. Not AAA. Not even AA (only 76 there). But the minor leagues as a whole. 97 PAs.

Chourio's first "year" in the minors was when he was 17 and was the Dominican summer league. Let's not pretend that's some wildly competitive minor league significantly higher than the showcase circuit Walker played at the same age. Then he played 3 years of minor league ball in the states. That's half a season more than Walker. If the Twins are playing service time games with the incredibly high likelihood of a 2027 lockout, they're even bigger fools than many already think.

Jenkins has been in the Twins system for as long as Merrill was in the Padres before he debuted. Walker Jenkins has 752 plate appearances in the minors. He'll be over 800 by the end of the season. Just like Jackson Merrill.

The Angels account for 2 of the cases (and the Twins have a major league system devoid of talent, despite you not wanting to admit it. There's a reason they continue to get their butts kicked by bad teams, they are a bad team lacking talent). 

The article is about Jenkins on the opening day roster. He'll still well below 100 AAA PAs. Him making the opening day roster would be him essentially skipping AAA. The other poster didn't name 6-7 players, they named 4. And those 4 weren't all called up in the same year. Nor were they called up on opening day. Nor did they all totally skip AAA.

[bunsen82]

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Jenkins will be 21 next year. Let's not act like Neto being 22 is some crazy difference. Your argument everywhere else is that it's about "minor league at bats," but now it's age? Neto had fewer than 200 minor league at bats before his debut. But he was 22 and had a whopping 16 plate appearances in AAA. That's your argument?

Again, Jenkins will be 21 before next season. So, that's the same as Schanuel who has, to this day, a staggering 97 plate appearances in minor league baseball. Not AAA. Not even AA (only 76 there). But the minor leagues as a whole. 97 PAs.

Chourio's first "year" in the minors was when he was 17 and was the Dominican summer league. Let's not pretend that's some wildly competitive minor league significantly higher than the showcase circuit Walker played at the same age. Then he played 3 years of minor league ball in the states. That's half a season more than Walker. If the Twins are playing service time games with the incredibly high likelihood of a 2027 lockout, they're even bigger fools than many already think.

Jenkins has been in the Twins system for as long as Merrill was in the Padres before he debuted. Walker Jenkins has 752 plate appearances in the minors. He'll be over 800 by the end of the season. Just like Jackson Merrill.

The Angels account for 2 of the cases (and the Twins have a major league system devoid of talent, despite you not wanting to admit it. There's a reason they continue to get their butts kicked by bad teams, they are a bad team lacking talent). 

The article is about Jenkins on the opening day roster. He'll still well below 100 AAA PAs. Him making the opening day roster would be him essentially skipping AAA. The other poster didn't name 6-7 players, they named 4. And those 4 weren't all called up in the same year. Nor were they called up on opening day. Nor did they all totally skip AAA.

My argument is multi faceted.   If you have an 3 year college player and you are in the Angels org they are more willing to throw you to the wolves.   Angels have had 3 players, Neto Shanuel and Ryan Johnson.  (4 if you include Christian Walker)

I look at at bats not plate appearances.    So apples to apples on what I utilized there is some variation.  

Look the premise was to throw Jenkins up basically for 2 reasons - 1 was draft comp - 2ndly to basically give the fans something to cheer for.  

Ive said all along if the Twins think he is ready fine.  No offense the Twins obviously thought it was prudent to move him to AAA and not just jack him up to MLB level.  Maybe they will decide to give him a few games at the end of the season.  Maybe they do start him at the MLB level.  However it is not a mandated thing that they do.  If they do start him before mid April that would mean his free agency would be after 2031.  If he joins the roster after that it is 2032.  If you don't understand teams in getting that extra year I don't know what to say.  As noted in the article though if he is ready and he does get rookie of the year he gets an extra draft pick for the organization.  It all comes down to whether he is ready,  and neither me or you or any other poster on here is making that decision.  The 2027 lockout is not having any affect on how they deal with their minor leaguers.   

 

The Twins are getting their butts kicked because we are throwing 2 legitimate starter pitchers,  a bullpen than has been completely traded,  and playing 3-4 AAAA players in the field on a regular basis seeing if they have any value for 2026 and moving forward but ultimately to lose games for a better draft pick in the 2026 draft.  Even still they were 7-7 at one point after the trade deadline.  They just fell apart last week.   They are tanking whether individuals want to admit it or not.  I accepted the Twins were tanking long ago and posted as much.   

 

[Mike Sixel]

Corbin Carrol had 157 AAA at bats......Jenkins would need to play all of 2-3 weeks next year to hit that level...would that really matter? I doubt it.

I have no idea if Jenkins is ready to start in the majors next year or not. But this idea that guys need a ton of AAA at bats seems off to me. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

My argument is multi faceted.   If you have an 3 year college player and you are in the Angels org they are more willing to throw you to the wolves.   

I look at at bats not plate appearances.    So apples to apples on what I utilized there is some variation.  

Look the premise was to throw Jenkins up basically for 2 reasons - 1 was draft comp - 2ndly to basically give the fans something to cheer for.  

Ive said all along if the Twins think he is ready fine.  No offense the Twins obviously thought it was prudent to move him to AAA and not just jack him up to MLB level.  Maybe they will decide to give him a few games at the end of the season.  Maybe they do start him at the MLB level.  However it is not a mandated thing that they do.  If they do start him before mid April that would mean his free agency would be after 2031.  If he joins the roster after that it is 2032.  If you don't understand teams in getting that extra year I don't know what to say.  As noted in the article though if he is ready and he does get rookie of the year he gets an extra draft pick for the organization.  It all comes down to whether he is ready,  and neither me or you or any other poster on here is making that decision.  The 2027 lockout is not having any affect on how they deal with their minor leaguers.   

Angels have had 3 players, Neto Shanuel and Ryan Johnson.  

The Twins are getting their butts kicked because we are throwing 2 legitimate starter pitchers,  a bullpen than has been completely traded,  and playing 3-4 AAAA players in the field on a regular basis seeing if they have any value for 2026 and moving forward but ultimately to lose games for a better draft pick in the 2026 draft.  They are tanking whether individuals want to admit it or not.  I accepted the Twins were tanking long ago and posted as much.   

 

Why would you look at at bats? Legitimate question. Why wouldn't you look at the number of times they stepped to the plate?

Who ever said anything was mandated? Are you attempting to prove me wrong by pointing to something the Twins did as proof that it was the right thing to do? An appeal to power by using the Twins as the example of intelligent baseball ops operation and prospect development? What about how they've developed players suggests they have it figured out and what they do is proof that it's clearly the right call? All offense meant by that towards them (not you). The reason they're in this position is because they've completely and utterly failed at developing even a single consistently productive all around position player prospect. Excuse me if their belief that "it was prudent to move him to AAA" isn't impressive to me. They haven't earned the right to have their decisions be unquestioned proof that it's the right decision.

I understand how service time works. I also understand that if you call him up after the service time date to try to get that extra year and he wins rookie of the year (like Paul Skenes) you don't get that extra draft pick or the extra year of control. That would be less than ideal, no? See, the Pirates didn't call Skenes up until 5/11/2024 to make his debut. Should've gotten an extra year of control out of that, right? Except he was good. Like really, really good. So, he won rookie of the year. And that meant he got a full year of service time anyways and they didn't get that extra year. And they didn't get the extra pick because he wasn't up in time. And he'll win the Cy Young this year and they still won't get the extra pick. See, not so clear cut when you have a potential star. The 2027 lockout should have an effect on their desire to keep a player down just to manipulate service time. Their development should be their only concern when you may lose an entire year of baseball.

Sorry, I was going off just my list, which only had 2 Angels on it. If you're doing total Angels you can add Christian Moore who had fewer than 100 AAA PAs before he debuted.

Yes, so they're devoid of major league talent. Which you listed as a reason to call up prospects quickly. And I hope they aren't playing for a better 2026 draft pick. The lottery is far too volatile and the draft is far too much of a crap shoot for that. Developing your prospects you have in hand should be a far bigger concern than trying to lose games for draft pick placement.

[bunsen82]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would you look at at bats? Legitimate question. Why wouldn't you look at the number of times they stepped to the plate?

Who ever said anything was mandated? Are you attempting to prove me wrong by pointing to something the Twins did as proof that it was the right thing to do? An appeal to power by using the Twins as the example of intelligent baseball ops operation and prospect development? What about how they've developed players suggests they have it figured out and what they do is proof that it's clearly the right call? All offense meant by that towards them (not you). The reason they're in this position is because they've completely and utterly failed at developing even a single consistently productive all around position player prospect. Excuse me if their belief that "it was prudent to move him to AAA" isn't impressive to me. They haven't earned the right to have their decisions be unquestioned proof that it's the right decision.

I understand how service time works. I also understand that if you call him up after the service time date to try to get that extra year and he wins rookie of the year (like Paul Skenes) you don't get that extra draft pick or the extra year of control. That would be less than ideal, no? See, the Pirates didn't call Skenes up until 5/11/2024 to make his debut. Should've gotten an extra year of control out of that, right? Except he was good. Like really, really good. So, he won rookie of the year. And that meant he got a full year of service time anyways and they didn't get that extra year. And they didn't get the extra pick because he wasn't up in time. And he'll win the Cy Young this year and they still won't get the extra pick. See, not so clear cut when you have a potential star. The 2027 lockout should have an effect on their desire to keep a player down just to manipulate service time. Their development should be their only concern when you may lose an entire year of baseball.

Sorry, I was going off just my list, which only had 2 Angels on it. If you're doing total Angels you can add Christian Moore who had fewer than 100 AAA PAs before he debuted.

Yes, so they're devoid of major league talent. Which you listed as a reason to call up prospects quickly. And I hope they aren't playing for a better 2026 draft pick. The lottery is far too volatile and the draft is far too much of a crap shoot for that. Developing your prospects you have in hand should be a far bigger concern than trying to lose games for draft pick placement.

As to why I utilize at bats - I always have.   Don't know why.  

I also don't think its smart to bring Jenkins up in April or May - give him 1/2 a season at AAA and make sure he is ready.   If he comes up in July the odds of him getting rookie of the year are beyond small.  The draft isn't as volatile in 2026 for a couple of reasons.  2 of the top 4 teams, are ineligible for a top 9 pick.   Colorado and Washington.  Meaning the % are much much higher than normal years.  The White Sox currently have 25% chance at the 1st pick and something like a a 70% chance at a top 3 pick.   Currently they are around 50%.    If Pittsburg passes them they jump to 20% and like 60%.   If Pittsburg and Washington pass them they will go up to like 22.5 % and 65%.   

The other is there is expected to be 3-5 or more really good prospects in the 2026 draft.  It is a much deeper draft, similar to the 2023 draft.  You could end up with a #4 or #5 pick like the Twins did and get a Walker Jenkins caliber player.  Increasing your odds on extremely highly talented prospects is the best way to find stars for the MLB team period.  

Those 2 things are drastically changing the calculations on tanking and making apparent at least to me that this is a strategy the front office is taking.  

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

As to why I utilize at bats - I always have.   Don't know why.  

I also don't think its smart to bring Jenkins up in April or May - give him 1/2 a season at AAA and make sure he is ready.   If he comes up in July the odds of him getting rookie of the year are beyond small.  The draft isn't as volatile in 2026 for a couple of reasons.  2 of the top 4 teams, are ineligible for a top 9 pick.   Colorado and Washington.  Meaning the % are much much higher than normal years.  The White Sox currently have 25% chance at the 1st pick and something like a a 70% chance at a top 3 pick.   Currently they are around 50%.    If Pittsburg passes them they jump to 20% and like 60%.   If Pittsburg and Washington pass them they will go up to like 22.5 % and 65%.   

The other is there is expected to be 3-5 or more really good prospects in the 2026 draft.  It is a much deeper draft, similar to the 2023 draft.  You could end up with a #4 or #5 pick like the Twins did and get a Walker Jenkins caliber player.  Increasing your odds on extremely highly talented prospects is the best way to find stars for the MLB team period.  

Those 2 things are drastically changing the calculations on tanking and making apparent at least to me that this is a strategy the front office is taking.  

How does one "make sure" a player is ready? It's not like a high OPS (Outman, Roden) guarantee anything.....

Why call him up for half a year next year, if you expect a lockout in '27?

[bunsen82]

NM

[bunsen82]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

How does one "make sure" a player is ready? It's not like a high OPS (Outman, Roden) guarantee anything.....

Why call him up for half a year next year, if you expect a lockout in '27?

1 you call him up when he has shown at least the ability to handle AAA pitching.   The second is I don't expect a lockout.   They may balk and threaten but ultimately the 2 will come to the table.  Both sides lose more when they lockout, so it shouldn't be a part of the math.  

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

1 you call him up when he has shown at least the ability to handle AAA pitching.   The second is I don't expect a lockout.   They may balk and threaten but ultimately the 2 will come to the table.  Both sides lose more when they lockout, so it shouldn't be a part of the math.  

What does hanlde AAA pitching mean? Like, I'm curious how we would know. Because stat lines don't appear as predictive as one would think. 

[bunsen82]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What does hanlde AAA pitching mean? Like, I'm curious how we would know. Because stat lines don't appear as predictive as one would think. 

Well if he is hitting .150/.240/.350 it would be pretty apparent he is not quite ready.  So yes in general for the type of player that Jenkins is  .280/.330+/.400+  is likely what you would be looking for in AAA.  Also that he is continuing to have solid plate appearances.  He will be seeing a higher amount of off speed pitches and better quality.  Its the secondary pitches that improve at each level past AA.  

Your issue is they are not as predictive as the past due to a much larger talent gap between AAA and MLB level.  Which is why you can have a Roden and Abel dominate AAA and struggle at MLB.  There is a significant improvement which requires on the pitching side, better control and if the MLB pitchers find a hole in your swing they will pound it.  Go watch Lewis yesterday.  Every single pitch thrown to the outside corner.  This isn't rocket science.  Until Lewis begins to go the other way he won't see any more pitches inside that he can crush.  

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

As to why I utilize at bats - I always have.   Don't know why.  

I also don't think its smart to bring Jenkins up in April or May - give him 1/2 a season at AAA and make sure he is ready.   If he comes up in July the odds of him getting rookie of the year are beyond small.  The draft isn't as volatile in 2026 for a couple of reasons.  2 of the top 4 teams, are ineligible for a top 9 pick.   Colorado and Washington.  Meaning the % are much much higher than normal years.  The White Sox currently have 25% chance at the 1st pick and something like a a 70% chance at a top 3 pick.   Currently they are around 50%.    If Pittsburg passes them they jump to 20% and like 60%.   If Pittsburg and Washington pass them they will go up to like 22.5 % and 65%.   

The other is there is expected to be 3-5 or more really good prospects in the 2026 draft.  It is a much deeper draft, similar to the 2023 draft.  You could end up with a #4 or #5 pick like the Twins did and get a Walker Jenkins caliber player.  Increasing your odds on extremely highly talented prospects is the best way to find stars for the MLB team period.  

Those 2 things are drastically changing the calculations on tanking and making apparent at least to me that this is a strategy the front office is taking.  

You've already decided it isn't smart to bring him up in April or May? So, he could spend the next 4 weeks putting up a 1.200 OPS, handling every type of pitch they throw him, and showing he's got no real problems with AAA pitching. Then go to spring training next year and face a bunch of MLB pitching and show he can handle that, but it's still not smart to call him up until July? All for an extra year of control that they're more likely to trade him before they can take advantage of anyways? Or are we still on the "you have to do your time in AAA to be ready for the majors" thing?

The draft is volatile every year. You're arguing the lottery is less volatile than typical, but the draft is still volatile. Sure, you could end up with that, or you could end up with the #7 pick (like the Marlins just did with a 22.5% chance of getting the #1 pick). Or you could end up with the #3 pick and the draft class turns out to be way less talented than expected. Because the draft is volatile. Every. Year. 

And I disagree the draft is the best way to find stars. Trading for high minors prospects is the best way to find stars. 

The Twins should be focused on developing the prospects they have in hand. If that strategy mixes well with improving their draft odds, great (it does, they have very little talent at the MLB level so they're going to lose a bunch of games).

[bunsen82]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You've already decided it isn't smart to bring him up in April or May? So, he could spend the next 4 weeks putting up a 1.200 OPS, handling every type of pitch they throw him, and showing he's got no real problems with AAA pitching. Then go to spring training next year and face a bunch of MLB pitching and show he can handle that, but it's still not smart to call him up until July? All for an extra year of control that they're more likely to trade him before they can take advantage of anyways? Or are we still on the "you have to do your time in AAA to be ready for the majors" thing?

The draft is volatile every year. You're arguing the lottery is less volatile than typical, but the draft is still volatile. Sure, you could end up with that, or you could end up with the #7 pick (like the Marlins just did with a 22.5% chance of getting the #1 pick). Or you could end up with the #3 pick and the draft class turns out to be way less talented than expected. Because the draft is volatile. Every. Year. 

And I disagree the draft is the best way to find stars. Trading for high minors prospects is the best way to find stars. 

The Twins should be focused on developing the prospects they have in hand. If that strategy mixes well with improving their draft odds, great (it does, they have very little talent at the MLB level so they're going to lose a bunch of games).

Me and you view it differently. That’s ok. I think they should develop and take advantage of draft opportunities. It’s not an either or proposition. The discussion of development at the MLB level is valid. Go look at the 2023 draft though and tell me if the odds were better than say 21 or 22.  I think drafting top 5 is much more valuable than drafting 13-15 which is just a few wins away. 

You have also ignored that I said my argument is null since they brought him up. My preference for further seasoning doesn’t matter much. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, bunsen82 said:

Me and you view it differently. That’s ok. I think they should develop and take advantage of draft opportunities. It’s not an either or proposition. The discussion of development at the MLB level is valid. Go look at the 2023 draft though and tell me if the odds were better than say 21 or 22. 

Have you looked at the 2021 top 5? Henry Davis certainly isn't worthy of the #1 pick, but Jack Leiter, Jackson Jobe, Marcelo Mayer, and Colton Cowser is not a bad top 5. Dylan Crews is not at all looking like the star people thought he was. The Nats would rather have Cowser, I bet. Skenes is obviously a freak. Langford is looking really good. We'll see what Jenkins and Clark can do, but Mayer is looking like a star in that 21 class and Lawlar has debuted as well. 

2022 has Jackson Holliday who reached the majors at 20. Kumar Rocker in an MLB rotation already. Cade Horton is going to pitch in the playoffs this year. I believe you're amongst the fans here who are still excited about that Brooks Lee fella who was a top 5 prospect that year but fella to 8. 

But I'll also point out the randomness of the draft with Bryce Eldridge going 16th and looking more ready than Jenkins already. Kyle Teel going 14th and already being in the bigs. Hurston Waldrep 24th and dominating the bigs already. Aiden Miller 27th and fans around here having wanted him back for Duran. Brice Matthews 28th and being an important part of what Houston is doing trying to make the playoffs. Already discussed Schanuel going 11th. Or Zach Neto from 2022 having gone 13th and having been the better choice than Lee at 8. Or Cole Young at 21. Or dang, imagine the Twins having taken Jackson Merrill instead of Chase Petty in 2021. Could you imagine if we'd traded him away for Sonny Gray? Heads would have exploded.

Of course they should develop and take advantage of draft odds. But it is sometimes an either or proposition. Sometimes they work together. Sometimes developing your young players leads to more losses and better draft odds. Sometimes developing your young players leads to more wins and worse draft odds. Sometimes it's essentially a push. All I'm saying is they shouldn't make 26-man and playing time decisions based on who they think gives them the best chance to lose (and I think you're wrong in that being their motivation or strategy). I think they should make them all based on what is best for the development of players who have a chance to be part of their future (I don't think that's their strategy either). I think they're still trying to win games. Or they're still just terrible at evaluating talent and honestly think Clemens and Gasper may be part of the 2026 team. No other reason for them to be playing.

[Major League Ready]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You've already decided it isn't smart to bring him up in April or May? So, he could spend the next 4 weeks putting up a 1.200 OPS, handling every type of pitch they throw him, and showing he's got no real problems with AAA pitching. Then go to spring training next year and face a bunch of MLB pitching and show he can handle that, but it's still not smart to call him up until July? All for an extra year of control that they're more likely to trade him before they can take advantage of anyways? Or are we still on the "you have to do your time in AAA to be ready for the majors" thing?

Trading him away would not negate the lost year.  He still becomes a free agent a year earlier so they would have to trade him a year earlier.  The value proposition here is gain the first 3 weeks with the major league club in what is very likely a lost year vs a full year in his prime when there would at least be a chance they were contenders.  What we all for at this point is that he is a key part of a new core that eventually contends.  Should we give up a year of Jenkins then for 3 weeks to start 2026?

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Should we give up a year of Jenkins then for 3 weeks to start 2026?

If he is ready and healthy next March, Walker Jenkins should be in the starting lineup for the first game of the year. Nobody knows how the CBA will be tweaked at this time. 

So if that is what you mean .... the answer is yes.

[Major League Ready]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If he is ready and healthy next March, Walker Jenkins should be in the starting lineup for the first game of the year. Nobody knows how the CBA will be tweaked at this time. 

So if that is what you mean .... the answer is yes.

You are entitled to your opinion.  What is gained by those three weeks?  The odds of it having an impact on making the playoffs in 2026 is 1% (give or take).   What is gained?  An entire year in his prime.   Giving up a year in his prime seems like an extremely poor value proposition.

[tony&rodney]

31 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You are entitled to your opinion.  What is gained by those three weeks?  The odds of it having an impact on making the playoffs in 2026 is 1% (give or take).   What is gained?  An entire year in his prime.   Giving up a year in his prime seems like an extremely poor value proposition.

I'm not assuming the rules in the next CBA remain the same, you are. I think there will be some changes made. It's just two viewpoints. We can both be certain of one thing - we don't know what changes will be made within the next CBA.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Trading him away would not negate the lost year.  He still becomes a free agent a year earlier so they would have to trade him a year earlier.  The value proposition here is gain the first 3 weeks with the major league club in what is very likely a lost year vs a full year in his prime when there would at least be a chance they were contenders.  What we all for at this point is that he is a key part of a new core that eventually contends.  Should we give up a year of Jenkins then for 3 weeks to start 2026?

Did the Pirates gain anything by keeping Paul Skenes in the minors until May 11th of 2024? What was the "value proposition" of that decision?

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Did the Pirates gain anything by keeping Paul Skenes in the minors until May 11th of 2024? What was the "value proposition" of that decision?

I am not sure of your point.  I didn't offer an opinion on Skenes.  The question before us is if it's worth a year of control for Jenkin's in his prime to gain a few weeks in 2026 when the team has virtually no chance of being a contender.  You have often stated your priority is building a true contender.  What will the team gain by getting an extra month of Jenkins in 2026?