Trevor Larnach, Accident Hitter, and What's Gone Wrong with Twins' Player Development - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Few hitters in baseball have changed as clearly and concretely as Trevor Larnach has this season. That transformation began last year, when Larnach learned to slightly dampen his whiff rate on breaking and offspeed pitches by getting slightly more aggressive within the strike zone. It was last year that he slashed his strikeout rate (33.6% across his first three seasons, interrupted by injuries and demotions to the minor leagues; 22.3% in 2024) without seeing any attendant losses in his power or walk rate, or even the ability to find hits on balls in play. In short, he went from a frustratingly average-minus hitter (97 DRC+ in 2023, where 100 is average and higher is better) to a downright solid one (122 DRC+ in 2024) by altering his approach.

He carried over some of those changes into 2025, so we can compare him to his 2023 self to see how his control of the strike zone has shifted. Here's his swing rate by pitch location for both 2023 and this year.

These charts tell the story of an intelligent adjustment. Larnach still wants to do his damage on fastballs, and likes to look for the ball up, but he knows he needs to cover the bottom half of the zone to avoid being called out on strikes at a galling rate or whiffing wildly when he's fooled into fishing for something soft. His approach indicates a conscious alteration to do just that.

It runs deeper, though, and big changes have happened just since last year. No hitter in baseball has flattened their swing path (as measured by Tilt, via Statcast, the degree of the angle formed by the bat relative to an imaginary line parallel to the ground and through the handle) more than Larnach has this year, and this is not one of those numbers that changes by mere coincidence. To have gone from 40° (one of the steeper swings in baseball) to 35° requires Larnach to have materially changed the way his swing works. It's had material effects on his batted-ball profile and his timing. He's also much more spread-out in the batter's box, on average, changing his stride signature and how his swing needs to work to catch the ball on the barrel.

Here's the thing: Larnach says he hasn't done any of it on purpose.

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[old nurse]

Of the 270 batters that have the most pate appearance, Larnach sits at 147.th best in WRC+. That would be below average for a starter. As DH, he was 29th out of the 33 used as DH with at least 300 AB The problem with the + stats are that there are people who catch and can’t hit but their AB still count in the + stats. There is a fie example of that in Vasquez.  Then there are the Outman, Martin, Brides, Kierseys, Julian and Lees of the world learning but not performing well. All of their AB count, too. With Larnach , the consideration should be a comparison to starting players. He is slightly below average . As a DH, they need to find better 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Given the amount of activity at the trade deadline, Larnach was a player I expected to be moved -- perhaps for another player in a similar situation who is solid in some ways but not living up to expectations/ability.  Depending on the raise he gets in arbitration, he may be a non-tender candidate this winter. 

I agree with @old nurse that he needs to be better than slightly below or even slightly above average as a DH or corner outfielder (who isn't a great fielder).  His production just doesn't play at a position where all of the value comes from hitting.  The problem, however, is that the Twins don't really have anybody to replace him right now.  Alan Roden may yet be that guy, but since he's injured it makes comparisons and competition a bit of a challenge.  

[DocBauer]

There were rumors the Astos were interested in Larnach.  I'm betting there are other teams that would be interested in a power LH bat with a career .766 OPS against RHP. 

His career numbers against RHP and being an OK OF with  a good arm still tells me he's enticing enough to bring a solid prospect back. I'd package him with a decent prospect for a solid BP arm for 2026.

But Larnach by himself is not an indictment of poor development of the Twins MLB system. Lee has been a disappointment so far despite the fact he's a virtual rookie. I'd argue Wallner is a successful story DESPITE his injury this season, and a RIDICULOUS demotion in 2024 after a limited number of AB and then SITTING TOO LONG before bringing him back up.

Keaschall is looking like a potential star.  A HEALTHY Wallner is a potential great player, and has been.

 And MAYBE Lewis has dealt with so many injuries that nobody knows how to get him right at this point. 

How much blame on Twins development when Larnach  hasn't  developed to what we hoped for, or Lewis not being a STUD at this point despite injuries.? Lee entered this season as a virtual rookie. That he doesn't look like a future STUD player is WAY too soon to declare him a BUST at this point. 

I AM confused and frustrated and pissed off the FO doesn't seem to have an actual DIRECTION going forward.  But other than Larnach,  and Lewis TRYING to get his crap together, I'm not sure what the coaching staff could do.

Oh wait! The fired batting coach is in charge of a lineup leading  MLB  in  runs  while the Twins sit at 23rd in ML following his firing. 

Tell me this FO has actuall plan in place !!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Galen]

It looks to me like they are trying to make everyone dead pull homerun hitters...not to many can do that...need to just hit the ball where it is pitched & hit behind the runner.

[Mahoning]

Teams that win win with stars. When did the Twins' system last produce a star? Especially a hitting star? Torii Hunter? David Ortiz?

[Watkins]

39 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

Teams that win win with stars. When did the Twins' system last produce a star? Especially a hitting star? Torii Hunter? David Ortiz?

I mean..Mauer, Morneau, Arraez.. but Arraez is probably the last true hitting star as far as average but with no pop and meh defense. Alex Kirilloff was supposed to be the next good hitter with average and some power and obviously Lewis was expected to be up there as well. 

[Otaknam]

Larnach, Lewis, and Wallner have all been disappointing this year. Lewis is the most disappointing, given that he looked like a real impact player. Now he can’t hit a sweeper and seems to be trying to pull everything. Wallner and Larnach are stuck in neutral. I’m not sure what their RISP is, but it’s nothing to be proud of. Lee looks like an average player, is on pace to hit 18-20 homers and 65 rbi. Not great but not awful. Culpepper looks like the shortstop of the future, hopefully next year. With Keaschall proving his value offensively and at second,  and if Lewis finds his stroke next year, Lee might be relegated as a backup.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Mahoning said:

Teams that win win with stars. When did the Twins' system last produce a star? Especially a hitting star? Torii Hunter? David Ortiz?

Byron Buxton was leading off last evening.

[Trov]

3 hours ago, Mahoning said:

Teams that win win with stars. When did the Twins' system last produce a star? Especially a hitting star? Torii Hunter? David Ortiz?

Who is the star on the Brew Crew right now? Stars can for sure help, I would say Buck is a star, but also the biggest star in baseball the last decade has only made playoffs 1 time and lost first round.  Having a good team is what wins not just having a star or two. I mean the Angels had most likely the two biggest stars in the game for several years, how did they do? 

[C-Gangster]

12 hours ago, Watkins said:

I mean..Mauer, Morneau, Arraez.. but Arraez is probably the last true hitting star as far as average but with no pop and meh defense. Alex Kirilloff was supposed to be the next good hitter with average and some power and obviously Lewis was expected to be up there as well. 

Welcome to Twins Daily! Yes lewis has been a tad bit disappointing because of injury the last year and a half he's kind of had a up and down season. But he was arguably one of the best players in the AL in terms of hitting. Joining a notable list with the most homeruns in their first 25 games. He has been a little disappointing in terms of defense, But we kind of expected it. But he has had a improvement in defense ranking 11th among 3rd baseball this season with -2 outs above average. And Kiriloffs retitment was heart breaking. But I hear he's doing good he's a real estate agent now! Also arreaz was great but I'm einjoying pablo alot! Morneau and Mauer are the goats still don't get why Morneau is not in the hall of fame. But anyways welcome to twins daily! I hope you have a great time on this site and hope you are here for many more years to come! and Let's Go Twins!

 -"C-Gangster" (:

[Hubie29]

On 8/20/2025 at 7:09 AM, Mahoning said:

Teams that win win with stars. When did the Twins' system last produce a star? Especially a hitting star? Torii Hunter? David Ortiz?

Rod Carew, Harmon Killebrew?

[Twodogs]

On 8/20/2025 at 5:09 AM, Mahoning said:

Teams that win win with stars. When did the Twins' system last produce a star? Especially a hitting star? Torii Hunter? David Ortiz?

Brent Rooker?

.272 batting average 

226 runs

95 hrs

255 rbis

.865 ops 

All since 2023