Could Louis Varland’s Emergence Lead to a Jhoan Duran Trade?

[SD happy]

Thank you for the article. While I totally agree that I’m not in favor of trading Duran as long as we are in the pennant/wild card race, I appreciate articles like this because it does give us ‘food for thought’ about the Twins. I think that’s a good thing.

[Bodie]

Makes more sense to me if you keep Varland out of the discussion....

Using Varland's performance to justify this is inane!  We know what to expect from Varland, just not the when.

[Doc Lenz]

What would you like to drink?

I’ll have what the writer of this article is drinking.

[Doctor Gast]

Twins went through their 13-game winning streak, w/o their early top offensive player, Wallner. IMO, Royce Lewis will return to being Royce Lewis. Return of Wallner & Castro, we haven't peaked out yet offensively. So, IMO, we don't need another bat. I'm more concerned with the rotation, BP, & catcher wearing down.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Ryan O'Hearn will be traded by the Orioles. He has a 172 OPS+ and a tiny $8M salary for 2025. He's a great fit for the Twins since he can play the field at 1B and corner OF. That also makes him a great fit for almost every other contending team.

Alex Bregman has an opt-out and could be traded by the Red Sox, but he also has a $40M salary for this season. Bregman is 4th in WAR in the American League.

Atlanta could sell Marcell Ozuna. He has a 147 OPS+ and a $16M salary for 2025. He's a pure DH.

Those are the best hitters likely to move at the deadline.

One of the main premises of the article was that Duran was going to cost the team 7M next year so adding salary much beyond that wouldn't really help the team payroll other than allocating more dollars to the hitting side.  So spending more than what Duran would cost doesn't add up to helping out team payroll IMO. Maybe I misread the OP but I also thought we were talking longer than a deadline deal.

I don't think you would trade your top bullpen arm with three years of control for a deadline pickup.  I don't think I have seen that done before by a team contending for a playoff spot.

If the Orioles don't think they can sign O'Hearn in the offseason I don't see the Twins getting that done.  Same with Bregman.  

They would need a younger player with years of control as they don't have much room to add to payroll.  With arb raises next year things are likely to get tighter again. I think it would be hard to execute a trade that would be a win, win especially payroll wise for Duran deal, but anything is possible if another team is interested enough.

[arby58]

4 hours ago, djvang said:

No. Just no.

You forgot to add "A thousand times no."

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, Dman said:

They would need a younger player with years of control as they don't have much room to add to payroll.  With arb raises next year things are likely to get tighter again. I think it would be hard to execute a trade that would be a win, win especially payroll wise for Duran deal, but anything is possible if another team is interested enough.

Those guys don't get sold at the deadline. Deadline deals are almost always vets for prospects. If you're buying, you're giving up the years of team control to get the expiring contract. The Twins would be buying so they would be giving up the years of team control on Duran to add value in 2025.

The only player who might get traded who actually makes the team better in a Duran trade is Bregman. Duran is more valuable this season than O'Hearn and Ozuna.

[arby58]

4 hours ago, Muppet said:

The problem I see isn't that the Twins lack a good bat in the lineup. Its that they lack several good bats in the lineup.

An interesting fact is that lots of teams this year (even good ones) have a hitting vs. pitching disparity. If you look at the top 10 teams in runs scored it is: Dodgers, Cubs, Cards, Yankees, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, A's, Astros, Jays. 

If you look at the top 10 teams in ERA, it is Mets, Giants, Rangers, Royals, Twins, Tigers, Rays, Yankees, Padres, Astros, Braves.  Only 2 teams (Yankees and Astros) are on both lists.

[Twins GFP]

I have long felt that trading Duran was a viable option. Yes, he has been lights-out this year, but we can't say that about previous years. He has almost always underperformed expectations. So goes the life of a reliever...

Unless the Twins are 100% sure Duran is the second coming of Joe Nathan, the Twins should be willing to move him this offseason, especially if a team is willing to overpay and the Twins can fill an area of need (Catcher, 1B) 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

NOOOOOOOO

You search years for a guy that has the stuff and the cajones to close games.  The Twins have one and you want to trade him away.

Need I remind people of how Grifiin Jax has performed in the closer role?  I am so pleased that Rocco has seemingly learned his lesson trying to filp/flop Duran and Jax based on matchups.  Duran is the CLOSER.  PERIOD. 

Also, there is absolutely no indication that Louie is ready to close games.  A month of good performance does not mean he is ready for that......

Finally, I've made this point in the past and have plenty who disagree with it, but there is a major difference between pitching in the 7th and 8th inning compared to trying to close a game in the 9th.  Duran can do it.  Let him do it.  Pay the man when it's time to pay him.

[Trov]

I am not one that likes to overvalue closers I am one that is all for trading them if you can get great value for them.  However, I would not trade a pen guy midseason when you are competing for a playoff spot.  Mainly because it will have a domino affect.  You move Varland into 8th or 9th inning roll along with Jax, you need to lean on others in the 7th inning roll more.  Also, your ability to use guess on multiple days in a row is hurt, then at times needing to rely on guys to step up more in the higher leverage roll because you burned your normal guys up days prior.

In the playoffs having 3 or 4 guys you would be willing to use in the 9th is huge.  It really shrinks the games, like the Royals did their WS a decade ago. Also, who during the year will give up a big enough offense piece just to add to their pen? Trading Duran in offseason would be better idea. 

[Greglw3]

9 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Seriously what are we doing here.  Lets trade some of our better players this year because they are doing well.  I am all for accumulating value and assets, but this is just moronic.  If you want to adjust the plan after the season,  or we suddenly start to fall apart and you can get great value I would be ok with it.   

However we seem to have more than enough trade bait if we need something this year.  You have Keashall, Debarge, K. Culpepper, Eeles and Schobel, and I would say Lee that you have ample infield options options for the foreseeable future.  You could easily trade 1 or multiple.   

And ironically, Keaschall is probably a better hitter than the one that Duran would bring back. The only player I would trade Duran for is Carew in his prime, a .388 hitter with 36 doubles 14 triples and 14 HR.

There was talk of Jared Duran being traded. He’d be a good pickup for the Twins but at a price less than Duran or Keaschall for that matter.

I agree the Twins need at least one more bat and open to multiple ways to do it, but Duran could be a key cog in a world championship.

 

[Parfigliano]

Based on the comments to this article trading Duran seems about as popular as rabies.

[h2oface]

You love to dream up a trade of players that are in a role that make this team worth watching now, for someone(s) who won't.

[dxpavelka]

Don't do it.  Yet.  But, maybe in the off-season.  You don't get better when your best players are playing for other teams.  But, we will need to trade him prior to him reaching free agency.  He will NEVER re-sign here.

[Parfigliano]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Don't do it.  Yet.  But, maybe in the off-season.  You don't get better when your best players are playing for other teams.  But, we will need to trade him prior to him reaching free agency.  He will NEVER re-sign here.

He'll sign here if here offers more money then wherever somewhere else is.

[dxpavelka]

18 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

He'll sign here if here offers more money then wherever somewhere else is.

We won't cuz we don't pay relief pitchers.  HE realized that the day we made him a relieve at the big league level after being a starter in the minors.  Cost him millions over the course of a career.  Save this and throw it at me if he re-signs.

[Parfigliano]

40 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

We won't cuz we don't pay relief pitchers.  HE realized that the day we made him a relieve at the big league level after being a starter in the minors.  Cost him millions over the course of a career.  Save this and throw it at me if he re-signs.

Cost him millions or made him millions by turning him into a dominate relief pitcher?  He might have washed out as a starter but he's definitely a reliever.

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Cost him millions or made him millions by turning him into a dominate relief pitcher?  He might have washed out as a starter but he's definitely a reliever.

Or might have been dominant starter and worth FAR more on the open market.  Pretty sure the competitor in him thinks that. He'll never re-sign here.