Why Keeping Simeon Woods Richardson in the Minnesota Twins Rotation Makes Sense

[mikelink45]

5 hours ago, Patzky said:

Trade Alcala lol. What are you expecting?

Nothing works for me, but there is such craziness in RP market - who knows.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not sure but I thought all 3 guys, before Ryan’s injury, were in a few Top 35’s last year relative to pitching stats? …… not sure what Lopez needs to do to cement a #2 status? 

Putting aside the coulda, woulda, shoulda stats to focus on real results, and looking at starters with 70+ innings (156 in 2024).
2024 ERA, Career ERA+
Pablo Lopez = 87th, 109
Joe Ryan = 55th, 107
Bailey Ober = 81st, 110

When it comes to comparing them to their peers in terms of how often they go out and give the Twins a quality start or even better yet, a start of 5.0+ innings with an ERA of 3.99 or better, Lopez is the best of the 3, though he falls into that #2 range historically. He wasn't good last year, and he's approaching 30 where things typically start a decline. We'll have to watch this year to see if he can bounce back from what was a rough season.

 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Are you advocating for the trade because you think he could bring a real haul back based on his league minimum salary, and more than 5 years of team control remaining? For sure, that's an enormous value, but it's also an enormous loss with limited control remaining over almost the entire current rotation.

Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober aren't better than #3's and Lopez is probably slipping from his #2 status. Festa's ceiling is probably as good as any of them. 

Correct - he would bring back the best return based on what you have said.  I will disagree on the Ryan/Ober comparison, and I hope I am wrong, but I think he is a bit over-rated in this forum and both Ryan and Ober should be ahead of him.    I would like to see him traded based on what his future could be versus waiting for the reality and his value drops

 

[Major League Ready]

My guess is that they are hoping for Paddack to pitch well enough that they can get something for him while off-loading his salary.  It's $5M saved if they get rid of him by game 54.  Maybe they would even be willing to eat most of it if they could get a decent return.  Regardless, I believe their first choice is to move Paddack out and Matthews in.  I seriously doubt SWR is going anywhere right now unless the return is beyond what we might reasonably expect.

[Fatbat]

I can’t think of a single reason to demote SWR to AAA. Also being one of Paddacks biggest fans’, we are doing him a disservice by not getting him into the pen where he will easily become a huge asset! How mngmnt fails to put guys into roles where they WILL succeed is rediculous.

[weitz41]

You keep going with SWR because every inning counts over 162 games. April game count just not as much as October ones. Yes, I know the current record. A guy who get outs over innings is much more valuable late in the season. Inning now K's/9 later

[arby58]

22 hours ago, Patzky said:

Sim is fine. Festa is fine. Paddack is fine. We really need to focus on the batting and defense.

Paddock is 0-3, Twins are 0-5 in his 5 starts. 6.45 ERA, 5.93 FIP. 13 BB in 22.1 innings pitched. If this is fine, I shudder to think what 'not fine' looks like.

5 starts does not make a season, but with these results, he's never going to make it up on volume. I'd guess he gets another 5 to at least begin to turn it around. I'll take the under.

[arby58]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Lopez is the best of the 3, though he falls into that #2 range historically. He wasn't good last year, and he's approaching 30 where things typically start a decline. We'll have to watch this year to see if he can bounce back from what was a rough season.

Lopez 'wasn't good' and 'had a rough season' based on what? He was 15-10, 4.08 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 1.192 WHIP, and a 2.5 WAR. If this is 'not good' give me 5 of them.

[strumdatjag]

And we are not even factoring in Knuckleballer Cory Lewis and Lefty Connor Prielipp.   It could be said that this  conversation here is Pre-Prielipp. 
Their numbers so far at AAA and AA are not that great.  So, maybe this thought is PRIE-mature, even for a PRIE-liminary discussion. 

[Rosterman]

As long as he eaminas productive, you keep giving him the reps.

I was more thinking that Festa might push Paddack to the pen.

SWR was pushed last year, wore out, but should be good for the full 30+ starts. He will only improve with experience. If he wishes, too. And he is still the youngest arm of all the Twins rotation arms with major league experience.

The Twins have three 29-year-old gems and they have to make a hard (and expensive) decision on which one to keep. I doubt that they will keep two. But we can rest assure that we will have Matthews, Festa and SWR in the rotation come '27-28, and also the next wave of arms, hopefuly keeping he Twins drom the dustbin of free agent needs.

Are we missing Chae Petty yet?

 

[laloesch]

19 hours ago, Jham said:

I thought Paddock looked outstanding out of the pen a couple years ago. He's a strike thrower with no pitch mix to speak of? To have a fireman that can come in and not walk guys is big. He's worked so hard to get back into the rotation. Gotta respect that. But... I just wonder if he'd be more effective and healthier as a set-up guy.

And the twins need bullpen help.  If Paddock can do that and pitch more games out of the pen it's a win win.

[twinfan]

It's a numbers game right now and Festa has the better numbers as far as team control. Both are no better than #3 or 4 starters. Things could change by the trade deadline and both could be here or gone. I am not giving up on Paddack just yet. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

Paddock is 0-3, Twins are 0-5 in his 5 starts. 6.45 ERA, 5.93 FIP. 13 BB in 22.1 innings pitched. If this is fine, I shudder to think what 'not fine' looks like.

5 starts does not make a season, but with these results, he's never going to make it up on volume. I'd guess he gets another 5 to at least begin to turn it around. I'll take the under.

They scored zero runs in two of his starts. I'm not sure how that's his fault. His last three starts have been quite good. 

[Patzky]

On 4/28/2025 at 10:50 AM, madtowntwin said:

Paddack's start tomorrow in Cleveland will be factorially huge contextually to this whole conversation. Win Twins!!

I think we have the Rain, Interrupted possibility tonight as well.

[arby58]

On 4/29/2025 at 9:45 AM, Mike Sixel said:

They scored zero runs in two of his starts. I'm not sure how that's his fault. His last three starts have been quite good. 

Fair enough, and he was good in his last start against Cleveland. I will concede this one. In that case, I don't think we will be seeing Zebby, unless one of the 5 current SPs ends up on the IL (in other words, probably sooner than we would hope).