Watch Out, World: Reliever Mode Louis Varland Has a Jhoan Duran-Caliber Curveball - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

As we wrestle with his ever-changing name, maybe we need to try 'Luke' next—because this version of his curveball is going to hang a lot of new Ks.

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

Whether he and the Twins are ready to say so out loud or not, Louis Varland is now a reliever, in full. He was the (count 'em) fifth pitcher into the fray in Tuesday afternoon's spring training contest with the Yankees, working a clean sixth inning and striking out two. That's not bad news, though, because as Varland has flipped that switch, he also appears to have revved up his curveball into the kind of out pitch every dominant high-leverage reliever needs.

Varland threw four knuckle-curves Tuesday, and all of them met the following criteria:

• 86 mph or faster (specifically, 86.6 or better, in this case)
• Between 2 and 6 inches of glove-side horizontal movement
• Between -4 and -8 inches of induced vertical break

For those who don't intimately know the context of pitch movement data, that's a very hard curveball, with a small amount of movement away from a same-handed batter and a roughly medium amount of vertical depth. On video, it looks like a very sharp pitch, especially because of the speed on it. The league only threw a total of 330 curveballs that met those criteria last season. Varland himself threw nine of those, though that was just 6.4% of the 140 total curves he threw while in the majors. Curves like the ones Varland threw Tuesday are outlier pitches—even within the arsenals of most of the pitchers who throw them.

Four pitchers did meet those criteria on over 10% of their curves last season, though:

1. Brendon Little, LHP, Blue Jays - 28.1%
2. Trevor Megill, RHP, Brewers - 20.5%
3. Ben Brown, RHP, Cubs - 11.9%
4. Jhoan Durán, RHP, Twins - 10.2%

Ohp. Hey! We know him!

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[Karbo]

If he can consistently pitch like that he will be a big part of the pen!

[Linus]

Glass half full: if Varland can find one breaking ball that works he could be a really good reliever.

Glass half empty: Varland has been trying to improve his secondary pitches for years and hasn’t done it.

It’s worth the effort because the right answer is different for each pitcher.  Sometimes it’s to throw harder with less break, sometimes to throw slower with more break and all the options in between.

[Dman]

I f Louis can make a Jax like transition over time that would be awesome!  Still It's very early and he didn't face elite bats yesterday.  It's spring and hope is in the air.  I hope that he has turned the corner as we could use more pen options this year.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This seems like a welcome development.  If his curveball can be dialed up like his fastball has been in the pen, he could really be a terrific reliever. 

I think we all need to pause and take stock of the fact that a guy like Varland will likely be on the outside looking in (at least temporarily) when the final bullpen group is announced.  In many (most? . . . all?) previous years, we would be asking Varland to quickly develop some pitches so that he could be our #2 or #3 guy out of the bullpen.  What's fun is that he might become that guy but what's even more fun is that we don't desperately need him to be that guy on day one.  With good health, this should be quite a fine group. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I'm wondering if maybe Varland starts out as the AAA closer to get him used to late inning, high stress relief work. He's then the first RP up and pitches in late inning situations and as the "backup closer" so Jax can stay as the guy that faces the heart of the other teams' lineup in the 7th or 8th inning. Those two plus Duran and the 30-40 innings we get from Stewart this year could be a pretty formidable back end of the bullpen.

[Parfigliano]

I'm so old I remember a fastball that only sat at 96mph was considered very good.

[Fatbat]

Looooooey is gonna miss a lot of bats with that knuclecurve.  Bring him in when a SP gets in trouble in the 5th/6th/7th, he gets the stop and then comes back in for another inning to set it up for Stewart/Jax/Duran….. probs will work well. 

[Doctor Gast]

I'm a big Varland fan & have advocated for him not to waste his bullets in AAA & let him focus in the MLB pen last season. With his knuckle-curve, would that make an argument for him to stay in the rotation?

[Cris E]

23 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'm wondering if maybe Varland starts out as the AAA closer to get him used to late inning, high stress relief work. He's then the first RP up and pitches in late inning situations and as the "backup closer" so Jax can stay as the guy that faces the heart of the other teams' lineup in the 7th or 8th inning. Those two plus Duran and the 30-40 innings we get from Stewart this year could be a pretty formidable back end of the bullpen.

Agree, except it's more likely he gets to be The Guy in St Paul until Stewart blows up on May 5. Then he can be the 7th inning guy until Jax and Duran get tired/hurt in mid-summer.  But the experience working late and without a net will prep him for the big innings when the top two guys inevitably falter.

[dex8425]

On 2/26/2025 at 11:02 AM, Parfigliano said:

I'm so old I remember a fastball that only sat at 96mph was considered very good.

I was watching some of the 1991 ALCS vs TOR on youtube last year and the announcer mentioned in game 4 preview that Todd Stottlemyre was a "power pitcher" who could "hit 90 mph". Yeah, times have changed. 

[AceWrigley]

On 2/26/2025 at 12:02 PM, Parfigliano said:

I'm so old I remember a fastball that only sat at 96mph was considered very good.

Agreed. 95+ was considered serious gas.

[Cris E]

I think how the radar guns measured speed changed somewhere around the early 90s.  Here's a great story from baseball America on the subject. "A 90 mph pitch on a Speedgun could register at 92 on a JUGS gun and 93-94 mph on a Stalker."  It's still not 97, but they weren't blowing out shoulders and elbows every other year either.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/the-measure-of-a-fastball-has-changed-over-the-years/

[arby58]

On 2/26/2025 at 12:43 PM, Doctor Gast said:

I'm a big Varland fan & have advocated for him not to waste his bullets in AAA & let him focus in the MLB pen last season. With his knuckle-curve, would that make an argument for him to stay in the rotation?

The pen is the place for him - and I'd much rather have him there than Tonkin. He's had more than ample opportunity to make it as a starter. Let him unleash that curve (and add a bit extra to the fast ball) one inning at a time.

[jkcarew]

Trevor Megill got much better after he left the Twins.

How is that POSSIBLE???