How Does ZiPS View the Minnesota Twins' Top Prospects for 2025?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have three consensus top-100 prospects entering the 2025 season. How does ZiPS project the Twins' top prospects will perform this year? Let’s dive in.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

To be successful in a sustainable way, teams must find value around the margins. For some teams, that means knowing when a prospect is ready to jump to the MLB level. Recently, at FanGraphs, Dan Szymborski released his 2025 Top 100 Prospects based on ZiPS, a projection system built to forecast how players will perform in both the immediate and the longer-term future. He clarifies that ZiPS is only one way to project players and that scouting should still play an evaluative role. His top-100 lists, however, are based on data and don’t have room for individual interpretation. 

On the 2025 list, the Twins' top three prospects are ranked differently than most national lists. Emmanuel Rodriguez is the highest-ranked Twins prospect and sits at No. 8 overall. He finished last season at Triple-A, so ZiPS values his proximity to the majors and his high ceiling. Rodriguez is also the third-ranked outfielder. Walker Jenkins ranks 41st, even though he is widely considered the organization’s top prospect. Luke Keaschall is two spots lower than Jenkins, roughly where he ranks on national top prospect lists. 

Only two teams (Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox) have more prospects in the top 50 ZiPS prospects than do the Twins. When the list is expanded to top-500, the Twins are tied for eighth overall, with 19 ranked prospects. Among AL Central teams, the White Sox (21 players) and Guardians (20 players) are the only teams who rank higher than the Twins on the top-500 list. The Twins have rebuilt their farm system, and the results point to the big-league team keeping their winning window open. 

Danny De Andrade was the most surprising Twins prospect on the 2024 ZiPS list, ranking 68th overall. He was coming off a breakout season in the Florida State League. In 105 games in 2023, he hit .244/.354/.396, with 21 doubles, three triples, and 11 home runs. Over 98 percent of his plate appearances came against older pitchers; he was one of the youngest players at his level. Projections were high on him because he showed moderate power and thought he could stick at shortstop. In 2024, he spent the year at High-A and saw his OPS dip to .693 while continuing to face older pitchers. He continues to be viewed promisingly with Twins Daily ranking him as the team’s 18th-best prospect, but he certainly isn't on the national radar anymore.  

Rodriguez suffered an ankle injury before camp started, so he will be delayed for a week or two from participating in camp. It is an unfortunate setback, but it shouldn’t significantly impact his long-term outlook. He has already established himself as one of the most well-rounded hitters in the Twins system, showing a strong ability to control the strike zone while tapping into impressive power. Even if the injury delays the start of his season, Rodriguez should still be in line for a midseason call-up, assuming he performs well in Triple-A. If everything clicks, he has the potential to be an impact bat in the middle of Minnesota’s lineup for years to come.  

Jenkins, meanwhile, may have the highest ceiling of any prospect in the organization, but patience will be key. His quick rise to Double-A last season was impressive, especially considering it was his first full professional season. However, the Twins have typically been cautious with their top-position prospects, and there’s no need to rush him with depth in the big-league outfield. A strong showing in the upper minors could put him in line for a late-season debut, but 2026 is a more realistic target for him to break into the lineup as a regular contributor.  

Keaschall’s situation is a little different. Returning from Tommy John surgery, he will need to prove that he can handle the rigors of everyday play, but his inclusion in full spring training is a positive sign. He brings a versatile defensive skill set, which could allow him to carve out a role in Minnesota sooner rather than later. If his bat continues to develop and he maintains the strong plate discipline he showed last year, he could force his way into the conversation for a call-up by season’s end.

The ZiPS projections highlight the Twins' talent coming through the pipeline, even if the big-league club won’t see an immediate influx of these prospects in 2025. Rodriguez is the closest to contributing, while Jenkins and Keaschall will likely need more time to refine their skills. If things break right, this trio could form a key part of Minnesota’s next wave of homegrown talent, helping sustain the club’s competitive window for years.

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Do you agree with the ZiPS rankings? Which player will have the most significant impact on the Twins roster this season? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[DocBauer]

So the Zips projections are that the top 3 Twins prospects are also their top 3 Twins prospects? And all 3 could help the Twins in the near future?

Pretty bold stuff there. 

I was expecting some arrival and numbers projections. Or is my screen broken?

[DJL44]

Interesting that ZIPS projected Rodriguez to have the highest OPS+ of any prospect on the list.

[Cody Christie]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

So the Zips projections are that the top 3 Twins prospects are also their top 3 Twins prospects? And all 3 could help the Twins in the near future?

Pretty bold stuff there. 

I was expecting some arrival and numbers projections. Or is my screen broken?

Rodriguez being higher than Jenkins is different than nearly every national list. It was also important to look at how the Twins compare to the rest of the AL Central since those are the teams Minnesota will be competing against. It's also a look back at the list from a decade ago to see how those players developed at the big-league level. I also tried to highlight that ZiPS sometimes values players that aren't always on national lists like they did with Danny De Andrade. Overall, ZiPS tends to have a different view of baseball's top-100 prospects so this was meant to review their rankings. 

[ashbury]

Listing Jenkins and Keaschall as DH makes me wonder what it is we're seeing here.

[Cody Christie]

36 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Listing Jenkins and Keaschall as DH makes me wonder what it is we're seeing here.

Both players had the most at-bats at DH last season so he has to put them into the projection system that way. Keaschall made 53 starts at DH, 16 in CF, and 20 at 2B. Jenkins made 45 starts at DH, 35 in CF, and 2 in RF. The Twins knew Keaschall would need TJ surgery but were trying to get him as many at-bats as possible before going under the knife. Jenkins was coming back from his early season leg injury so the Twins were being cautious with him. 

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, Cody Christie said:

Both players had the most at-bats at DH last season so he has to put them into the projection system that way. Keaschall made 53 starts at DH, 16 in CF, and 20 at 2B. Jenkins made 45 starts at DH, 35 in CF, and 2 in RF. The Twins knew Keaschall would need TJ surgery but were trying to get him as many at-bats as possible before going under the knife. Jenkins was coming back from his early season leg injury so the Twins were being cautious with him. 

As with the old cliche about sausage, I do not actually LIKE knowing the details about how projections are made, as it reduces my confidence in the process rather than increasing it.  😀

[nicksaviking]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

As with the old cliche about sausage, I do not actually LIKE knowing the details about how projections are made, as it reduces my confidence in the process rather than increasing it.  😀

Of course ZIPs is Dan's system. He can make or break the rules as he sees fit. He didn't HAVE to put them at DH, he chose to based on his own arbitrary prerogative.

 

[Linus]

Wow, this and 50 cents won’t get you a cup of coffee.

[Wizard11]

There is a great interview with Walker Jenkins on FanGraphs.  It gives a nice insight into how he mentally approaches his development 

[dxpavelka]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So the Zips projections are that the top 3 Twins prospects are also their top 3 Twins prospects? And all 3 could help the Twins in the near future?

Pretty bold stuff there. 

I was expecting some arrival and numbers projections. Or is my screen broken?

was just getting ready to type the same thing

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Rodriguez being higher than Jenkins is different than nearly every national list. It was also important to look at how the Twins compare to the rest of the AL Central since those are the teams Minnesota will be competing against. It's also a look back at the list from a decade ago to see how those players developed at the big-league level. I also tried to highlight that ZiPS sometimes values players that aren't always on national lists like they did with Danny De Andrade. Overall, ZiPS tends to have a different view of baseball's top-100 prospects so this was meant to review their rankings. 

gotta be honest, there wasn't much there, there.

 

[dxpavelka]

12 hours ago, Linus said:

Wow, this and 50 cents won’t get you a cup of coffee.

Wow.  That's my line.  Except I use a quarter.  "That and a quarter will get you a cup of coffee.  Not the good kind but the crappy kind you get for a quarter."  Maybe I'm just old.  But, yeah I was expecting some arrival date and stat projections.  You know, to get us excited for what might be coming.

[Fatbat]

Surprise. Erod has a minor ankle injury already. No chance we will see him play in MLB until July at the earliest. I sure would like him and Jenkins to absolutely destroy milb pitching so next off season no one will talk about picking up or trading for ANOTHER below average OF.  
Keaschall is gonna be in the show soon. Sit back and enjoy watching that kid!

[LambchoP]

Everyone seems to be ready to hand Rodriguez and everyday OF job, but the kids only played 47 games last year, most of them in AA. He's never even played half a season as a pro. Let's temper the expectations a bit and hope for a full healthy year of production first, then talk about a possible September call up. Keaschal seems more likely to get his debut first. With all the questions marks at first and second base, if Keaschal's bat looks ready, I could see him making his debut fairly early 

[IndianaTwin]

15 hours ago, Linus said:

Wow, this and 50 cents won’t get you a cup of coffee.

Coffee is free in the break room,*

*though I don't drink coffee. What the break room really needs is Diet Dew on tap. 

[Cody Christie]

10 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

There is a great interview with Walker Jenkins on FanGraphs.  It gives a nice insight into how he mentally approaches his development 

Here's the article for those that want to read it. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/walker-jenkins-wants-to-hit-the-ball-hard-and-usually-does/

[Cody Christie]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

was just getting ready to type the same thing

ZiPS is a projection system. It is not made to project arrivals. 

Their ZiPS numbers were released at the beginning of January. There have been multiple articles on the site talking about the numbers already. If you would like to see them, there are available here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

[Cody Christie]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

gotta be honest, there wasn't much there, there.

 

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

ZiPS is a projection system. It is not made to project arrivals. 

Their ZiPS numbers were released at the beginning of January. There have been multiple articles on the site talking about the numbers already. If you would like to see them, there are available here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

Zips might not project arrivals but that doesn't mean the article can't.