Make Or Break Players On The 2025 Twins: Brooks Lee

[mikelink45]

Too early.  I agree with others that we need to revamp the MLB coaching to help rookies adjust - too many with real potential hit mlb and stagnate while clubs like the Orioles see their rookies come in adjust and prosper.

[TwinsDr2021]

57 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Joe Ryan was a sure fire prospect and Lewis who has already made it. Neither will be optioned back to AAA. 

When was Joe Ryan a sure fire prospect?

He was a 7th round pick in 2018, wasn't the Rays top 30 prospects in 2019, 2020 he was their 8th, 2021 he was their 14th, was traded to the Twins and was the 4th rated prospect in 2022. Not trying to take anything away from him because he has been pretty darn good.

Lewis will be 26 in July and hasn't played more than 82 games in the majors, he hasn't made it yet, but he sure does look like if he can stay healthy he will. Just for comparisons Buxton had played in 393 games going into his age 26 season and had a WAR of 9, Lewis has played in 152 games with a WAR of 3.4.

 

[HelmetTip]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Brooks Lee was very rough at the MLB level. He showed the limits of his athleticism matched criticism in scouting reports. If he puts up another 200+ plate appearances which look like last year, his MLB career will be limited to utility/spotty playing time and the clock will start on his opportunities going forward.

Judging any baseball player - much less a top prospect like Lee - by the results of under 200 at bats flies in the face of MLB wisdom. I've heard/read a number of times it takes 1,000 to 1,500 at bats in the major leagues to find out what kind a hitter a prospect is going to be. 

Not to mention using your own words to debunk this low sample size silliness. We're in full agreement that 114 at bats is a "tiny stretch" & that's not far off of 185 at bats! 

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Lee was pretty miserable in 168 PA in AAA during 2023, but in 114 PA he was great in 2024, but Lee's .298 ISO driven by 8 HR in that tiny stretch suggested severe regression was on its way unless you believe he's a 30-40 HR slugger.

 

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

When was Joe Ryan a sure fire prospect?

He was a 7th round pick in 2018, wasn't the Rays top 30 prospects in 2019, 2020 he was their 8th, 2021 he was their 14th, was traded to the Twins and was the 4th rated prospect in 2022. Not trying to take anything away from him because he has been pretty darn good.

Lewis will be 26 in July and hasn't played more than 82 games in the majors, he hasn't made it yet, but he sure does look like if he can stay healthy he will. Just for comparisons Buxton had played in 393 games going into his age 26 season and had a WAR of 9, Lewis has played in 152 games with a WAR of 3.4.

 

Thank you.

You can also add in the confusion about what position Lewis will play.  He’s played multiple spots and virtually every day on this thread there is discussion about him playing 3B, 2B, SS, and 1B (the OF experiment seems to be off the table, but who knows with Rocco et al).  This is not how superstars are developed.

[Nashvilletwin]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Joe Ryan was a sure fire prospect and Lewis who has already made it. Neither will be optioned back to AAA. 

1. My point was about position players.

2. Ryan was mostly developed in the TB system, anyway.

3. Lewis is not a hit yet - he plays below average 3B (and we don’t even know if that is where he will stay) and his hitting still has a way to go in it’s consistency.  
 

Question for you: is Lewis where you think he should be or you’d hoped he be at this point?  We can all agree he’s behind schedule for someone who was being compared to Mike Trout. Let’s just call it like it is - the Twins under Rocco and Falvey just stink at developing position players. The fact that some DNers look at Lewis as their big success story just proves it.

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Joe Ryan was a sure fire prospect and Lewis who has already made it. Neither will be optioned back to AAA. 

Lewis , if the pitchers have already found his weak spot, like they have for Julien, he could just as easily end up back in AAA as any other rookie, or quasi-rookie.

He hit a few fortunate, bases loaded home runs, which means little in reality. Had they been single run dingers the rose would have never bloomed.

[Linus]

Lee was the wrong choice to the subject of this article when we have several others who are truly in a make or break season.  Miranda, Larnach, Martin, Julien for sure and then to a lesser extent you have Wallner and Lewis.  And the bar to clear is going to somewhat high because none of these guys are great fielders and most are slow or slowish runners.  I still maintain that this has to be the year these guys step up or step down.  We have to get these answers if we are going to take a decisive step forward.

[sweetmusicviola16]

6 minutes ago, RpR said:

Lewis , if the pitchers have already found his weak spot, like they have for Julien, he could just as easily end up back in AAA as any other rookie, or quasi-rookie.

He hit a few fortunate, bases loaded home runs, which means little in reality. Had them been single run dingers the rose would have never bloomed.

I agree, Lewis has a lot to prove.  First and foremost he has to prove that he can stay healthy. If he can't do this then he is a wash. 50-60 games a year is not a player a team can truly build around. I do believe that he can hit. But health is huge. Then we go to defense. He's not a SS. I don't think he's a good 3B. He's largely unproven in the OF and at his age I don't see a future for him there. No clue as to whether he can be at 1B. It's not as easy of a position to play as most seem to think it is. So I'm not looking to him to ever be at 1B. I think he best profiles at 2B and should be put there. Then the guy that this article is referring to, Lee, could be put at 3B. Does Lee have the bat for 3B? Probably isn't going to be 30HR power but does appear to have the defensive abilities that we should be looking for at third. Just my opinions. Time for this org to develop a 1B and C. 

[Nashvilletwin]

4 minutes ago, Linus said:

Lee was the wrong choice to the subject of this article when we have several others who are truly in a make or break season.  Miranda, Larnach, Martin, Julien for sure and then to a lesser extent you have Wallner and Lewis.  And the bar to clear is going to somewhat high because none of these guys are great fielders and most are slow or slowish runners.  I still maintain that this has to be the year these guys step up or step down.  We have to get these answers if we are going to take a decisive step forward.

Yep, all of our highly touted “can’t missers” (Julien was more of a surprise, granted).  That is seven players we have all been brainwashed into thinking they are our future core.  

The reality is that, although every single one of them was projected to be an everyday above average position player, there is a decent chance none of them will be.

Btw, are they inherently poor fielders or is it because they’ve been moved around the diamond so much?

Rocco and Falvey should write a book entitled How to Ruin a Can’t Miss Prospect”.
 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Lee has less at bats than Rooker did when they gave up on him*

Yet people are giving up on Lee and Julien ...

* Not sure this is true, but it's in the ballpark and makes the point.

[Linus]

15 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yep, all of our highly touted “can’t missers” (Julien was more of a surprise, granted).  That is seven players we have all been brainwashed into thinking they are our future core.  

The reality is that, although every single one of them was projected to be an everyday above average position player, there is a decent chance none of them will be.

Btw, are they inherently poor fielders or is it because they’ve been moved around the diamond so much?

Rocco and Falvey should write a book entitled How to Ruin a Can’t Miss Prospect”.
 

 

I don’t believe serious baseball people considered any of those guys were can’t miss or anbove anverage every day players except Lewis.  Fans get way ahead of themselves when it comes to prospects - they provide an addictive drug called hope.  It’s the second string quarterback syndrome - I call it Prospect Puppy Love.  Fact is most prospects fail even guys that have some success at AAA.  This is especially true when they are defensively flawed and aren’t particularly athletic.  So yea I do believe they are inherently flawed fielders because they don’t possess the attributes to be anything else.  I do agree if they focused on one position they would be better than they are now.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I personally would have Lee starting at Target starting out 2025. Sending him to St. Paul will prove nothing. What is the alternative at this point? Signing Whit Merrifield or Nick Senzel? Lee has 185 PA's in the majors is all. Let's see what he does with 550 this season so we have a better idea of who we have.  I believe we have a solid everyday player. Not necessarily an all-star but a solid player.

I suppose I should delete the Merrifield/Senzel quip, otherwise Falvey/Rocco could think it's actually a good idea.

[Nashvilletwin]

21 minutes ago, Linus said:

I don’t believe serious baseball people considered any of those guys were can’t miss or anbove anverage every day players except Lewis.  Fans get way ahead of themselves when it comes to prospects - they provide an addictive drug called hope.  It’s the second string quarterback syndrome - I call it Prospect Puppy Love.  Fact is most prospects fail even guys that have some success at AAA.  This is especially true when they are defensively flawed and aren’t particularly athletic.  So yea I do believe they are inherently flawed fielders because they don’t possess the attributes to be anything else.  I do agree if they focused on one position they would be better than they are now.

Lewis was being compared to Trout - he can’t even hold his jock strap at this point.  Lee was the eighth pick after a huge college career and was a consensus top 40 prospect.  Most, if not all of the rest were top 100s or close - according to the professionals. If these types of players are not considered to be potential everyday major league starters, then who is?

The sad truth is that you do not want to be a top prospect within the Twins organization. Right now, I’d wager every single one of those players, with maybe the exception of Lewis, would welcome a trade to any team that would truly make the investment in them to see what they can be.  That’s what any young professional - in any pursuit - seeks.

The Twins just won’t make that investment. 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Lewis was being compared to Trout - he can’t even hold his jock strap at this point.  Lee was the eighth pick after a huge college career and was a consensus top 40 prospect.  Most, if not all of the rest were top 100s or close - according to the professionals. If these types of players are not considered to be potential everyday major league starters, then who is?

The sad truth is that you do not want to be a top prospect within the Twins organization. Right now, I’d wager every single one of those players, with maybe the exception of Lewis, would welcome a trade to any team that would truly make the investment in them to see what they can be.  That’s what any young professional - in any pursuit - seeks.

The Twins just won’t make that investment. 

I'm not sure how it is the Twins' fault Lewis is hurt all the time. I won't judge them for that at all. I don't think any serious person compared him to Trout, ever. There were questions about his position in every national write up, for one thing......

I agree, though, this team loves it's veterans and I wouldn't want to be drafted by them (except pitchers, I'd be happy to be in MN then).

[Linus]

1 minute ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Lewis was being compared to Trout - he can’t even hold his jock strap at this point.  Lee was the eighth pick after a huge college career and was a consensus top 40 prospect.  Most, if not all of the rest were top 100s or close - according to the professionals. If these type of players are not considered to be potential everyday major league starters, then who is?

The sad truth is that you do not want to be a top prospect within the Twins organization. Right now, I’d wager every single one of those players, with maybe the exception of Lewis, would welcome a trade to any team that would truly make the investment in them to see what they can be.  That’s what any young professional - in any pursuit - seeks.

The Twins just won’t make that investment. 

I excepted Lewis and Lee wasn’t on my list.  No serious baseball person compared Lewis to Trout.  None of the rest of those guys were that highly regarded.  One source of the difference of our opinions might be that I don’t consider prospect lists as indicative of much.  Regardless I think we are in agreement on the main point which is the Twins are not producing enough ball players that could be considered difference makers.  I respect your opinions.

[Doctor Gast]

On 2/17/2025 at 10:22 AM, Blyleven2011 said:

While I agree the twins haven't matured our prospects as we would like , the prospects have faired well at each level of the minors , but once here in the major leagues   , it seems the coaching staff doesn't bring the prospects up to play at this level , this is a new level and much harder , they have to teach them this , take the talent and make them a better talent here at MLB  ...

I don't agree with trading every one on your list , not yet anyway , they could stop hoarding the players that they don't play regularly and dont have a future with the twins ...

FO loves to hoard prospects & protect their favorite players which makes no sense to keep. 3 players I was vehemently wanting the Twins to trade high last offseason. 1st Gabriel Gonzalez at 13.1 surplus trade value, I wanted to use him for a high-leverage LHRP because he'll never make it to the Twins club, he's now at 1.6; 2nd Julien if they weren't going to use him at 1B then trade him high at 34.5, now 17.6; 3rd Jeffers, he would be too expense to extend better to have sold high at 33.3, now 19.5. They could have been traded for a top of the rotation SP & a promising young MLB-ready catcher. Gonzalez has bottomed out but Julien & Jeffers still have some hype to trade for a promising young catcher or two. But I'm not holding my breath. They hang unto them until they are worthless.

[Doctor Gast]

Lee will figure it out. He can field anywhere in the INF. IMO his bat will come around. What concerns me about Lee is his back. It appears to be a chronic thing where he's managing the pain. He was very nonchalant when he mentioned it so maybe he does have it under control. I hope so.

[Blyleven2011]

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

FO loves to hoard prospects & protect their favorite players which makes no sense to keep. 3 players I was vehemently wanting the Twins to trade high last offseason. 1st Gabriel Gonzalez at 13.1 surplus trade value, I wanted to use him for a high-leverage LHRP because he'll never make it to the Twins club, he's now at 1.6; 2nd Julien if they weren't going to use him at 1B then trade him high at 34.5, now 17.6; 3rd Jeffers, he would be too expense to extend better to have sold high at 33.3, now 19.5. They could have been traded for a top of the rotation SP & a promising young MLB-ready catcher. Gonzalez has bottomed out but Julien & Jeffers still have some hype to trade for a promising young catcher or two. But I'm not holding my breath. They hang unto them until they are worthless.

Just read trade rumors and it's posted that the club is going to use Bader alot in left field  and fill in at centerfield , guy can't hit and we need hitting , looks like the twins want defense and strong pitching and no hitters ...

Still predicting a 3rd or 4th place finish , to bad they can't learn to trade a player when their value is high and can't figure out if they have a future for the twins , evaluation is all about knowing if they are a part of the future or not ...

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Lewis , if the pitchers have already found his weak spot, like they have for Julien, he could just as easily end up back in AAA as any other rookie, or quasi-rookie.

He hit a few fortunate, bases loaded home runs, which means little in reality. Had they been single run dingers the rose would have never bloomed.

Lewis & Julien are completely different hitters. Lewis is more of a pure hitter & Julien embraced the "all or nothing" approach. Though he had a lot of success with it until last season, the league has his number so he'll have to reinvent himself.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure how it is the Twins' fault Lewis is hurt all the time. I won't judge them for that at all. I don't think any serious person compared him to Trout, ever. There were questions about his position in every national write up, for one thing......

I agree, though, this team loves it's veterans and I wouldn't want to be drafted by them (except pitchers, I'd be happy to be in MN then).

When they brought up zebby , they were comparing him to the Yankees Cole  , I've never head a comparison of Lewis and trout  ....

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Blyleven2011 said:

When they brought up zebby , they were comparing him to the Yankees Cole  , I've never head a comparison of Lewis and trout  ....

Who's "they", because I sure as heck don't recall that. Anyone who said he was likely Cole is silly in their analysis, imo.

Fangraphs said Zebby would be around the 50-60th best prospect, if he still was one, btw. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who's "they", because I sure as heck don't recall that. Anyone who said he was likely Cole is silly in their analysis, imo.

Fangraphs said Zebby would be around the 50-60th best prospect, if he still was one, btw. 

I don't remember hearing that, but it wouldn't surprise me that people did, I have seen quite a few Twins prospects compared to Hall of Fame type players. (It was only 7 days ago where Seth Stohs said - Oh, and be sure to get Luke Keaschall and his Trout-like swing ) Sano to Cabrera, EROD being compared to Soto, Eeles compared to Altuve, McCusker to Nelson Cruz, Keirsey to some late blooming HOF outfielder, even Martin being the next Arraez with speed and many others I am leaving out.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't remember hearing that, but it wouldn't surprise me that people did, I have seen quite a few Twins prospects compared to Hall of Fame type players. (It was only 7 days ago where Seth Stohs said - Oh, and be sure to get Luke Keaschall and his Trout-like swing ) Sano to Cabrera, EROD being compared to Soto, Eeles compared to Altuve, McCusker to Nelson Cruz, Keirsey to some late blooming HOF outfielder, even Martin being the next Arraez with speed and many others I am leaving out.

Trout like swing isn't saying at all he'll be Trout. Sure, a person or two will say big things, but to say that's how experts or most people feel is a huge leap. 

[Linus]

12 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't remember hearing that, but it wouldn't surprise me that people did, I have seen quite a few Twins prospects compared to Hall of Fame type players. (It was only 7 days ago where Seth Stohs said - Oh, and be sure to get Luke Keaschall and his Trout-like swing ) Sano to Cabrera, EROD being compared to Soto, Eeles compared to Altuve, McCusker to Nelson Cruz, Keirsey to some late blooming HOF outfielder, even Martin being the next Arraez with speed and many others I am leaving out.

Well isn’t it on us to not go for that crap?  When was the last time you read a critical piece on a Twins prospect on this site?  Most of the time the info provided on the prospect profiles (which I enjoy very much) does not mesh with independent scouting reports.  The funny thing is posters will talk about “the Twins” talking up prospects which I rarely hear the FO do.  It’s all fan stuff going nuts over their next perceived savior.

[jorgenswest]

It is really hard to hit major league pitching. The typical AAA pitcher is much closer to the typical AA pitcher than a major league pitcher. The jump is huge. For most players it takes time with a mix of success and an abundance of failure. The depth of those failures will be new for many players and they will need to learn how to respond to it.

I don’t know if Lee will be a successful regular in the major leagues. He may need to utilize his three options to get there. Let’s get to that third option and lots more major league PAs before we see this as make or break. I am hoping for a make this year but if much is spent in AAA I won’t call it a break.

[Blyleven2011]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who's "they", because I sure as heck don't recall that. Anyone who said he was likely Cole is silly in their analysis, imo.

Fangraphs said Zebby would be around the 50-60th best prospect, if he still was one, btw. 

The big hype on zebby's debut , the TV broadcasters were repeating what they had heard,  where they heard it from , nobody knows ...

[Fatbat]

Well its way too early to give up on Lee!  He had a herniated disc in his back last spring.  He has a couple more years until he hits his prime and will likely be a solid MLB’r this season. The whole season.

There was a lot of Lewis hype for sure but there was always reluctance to say he was “cant miss”.  he had a big leg kick, a busy swing, committed errors. Etc.  Now we know that he is buxton type fragile. Maybe thats in the past tho. 
 

The biggest knock on player development seems to be the coaches trying to turn everyone into a utility guy. Thats a strategy for a few players/prospects but not half of your team just because you have “very athletic guys”.  Yes, we draft a lot of up the middle defenders. Why? Because the best  athletes play the hardest defensive positions when they are young but at some point, coaching/development has to find them the beat defensive home that leads to their best suited position success.  

Even Julien can be wildly successful yet if he gets fixed. Same with Miranda and Martin. Will they all be serviceable? nope. Thats why we have a farm system. 

[Wizard11]

On 2/17/2025 at 5:30 PM, nicksaviking said:

I frankly put little stock into prospect rankings, as they don't take a practical approach to these evaluations. I understand the real world value of high contact, but the player market does not. Every team in the league can afford to pay Luis Arraez. Or Denard Span or Luis Castillo (Marlins/Twins, not Reds/Mariners). If you have a guy pop up on these lists who looks to be an 1980's archetype hitter, good for you, but he's not nearly as valuable as the guys you'd otherwise not be able to afford should they hit the free agent market.

And I'm not overvaluing Lee, I have also been the low guy on this site on him as well. I was always just that much lower on Martin who not only can't hit it out of the park, he rarely hit doubles either.

Austin Martin hit 18 doubles in 233 ABs last year.  Not sure what you are talking about on that