Comparing AL Central Rosters: Part 4 (Bullpens)

[Seth Stohs]

In the final breakdown of the AL Central rosters (currently), I'll consider the bullpens of each of the five teams. How do the Twins rank? Who has the best bullpen? 

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images (photos of Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran), Ken Blaze-Imagn Images (photos of Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith)

A week ago, I started an attempt at comparing the Twins roster (if the season opened today) to the other teams in the AL Central. If you missed any of the first three installments of this series, you can look back here: 

Part 1: Infielders/Catchers
Part 2: Outfielders/DH/Bench
Part 3: Starting Pitchers
Part 4: Relief Pitchers (Today) 

In my mind, comparing bullpens can be quite difficult. Sure, for most teams we know the closer, but after that, one could argue that they are all underrated, or at least aren’t talked about as much as they should be. As we all know, aside from some closers, the only time you really hear about a reliever is when they don’t do well. Think about it. Twins fans saw how amazing that Griffin Jax was the last couple of years, and he wasn’t even mentioned among the Top 10 relief pitchers in baseball. In reality, he was Top 3 in MLB, and the other two are also in the AL Central (arguably). 

In addition, a lot of teams use the back half of their bullpen to shift players between Triple-A and the big leagues. When there are DFAs, they often happen with players at lowest-leverage roster spots. And how do you compare an 8th inning, high-leverage reliever to a long reliever who pitches in blowouts. 

So, I broke it into five parts, which may be too many. Those categories are: The Closer, Top Set Up Guy, Top Lefty, Next Two, and then Bottom Three. 

The Closer: Obviously the ninth-inning guy. The guy who gets the Saves.

The Top Set Up Guy: Often the team’s best relief pitcher. He may be called upon for the biggest outs of the game whether they happen in the eighth inning or sixth inning. 

Top Lefty: I’m not sure if this is as important as it was before the three-batter minimum rule came into place. However, most teams want to have at least one high-quality lefty reliever in their bullpen. 

The Next Two: I guess, looking at Twins terms, this is the rest of The A Team. These are the two other relievers that are called upon in high leverage situations and with leads. 

The Bottom Three: I need a better name for this group, but this is really just the final three bullpen spots. One could be a long-reliever. One could be a Rule 5 pick or a younger reliever that they don’t want to use in high-leverage situations. 

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Bullpen 
Twins: Jhoan Duran (1.2), Griffin Jax (2.6), Cole Sands (1.5), Jorge Alcala (0.3), Kody Funderburk (-0.1), Justin Topa (0.1), Michael Tonkin (0.4), Eiberson Castellano (R5), Brock Stewart (IL, 0.1)
Guardians: Emmanuel Clase (2.2), Cade Smith (2.7), Hunter Gaddis (1.6), Tim Herrin (1.0), Pedro Avila (0.3), Slade Cecconi (0.2), Sam Hentges (0.3), Logan Allen (-0.7), Trevor Stephan (IL). 
Royals: Lucas Erceg (1.4), James McArthur (0.1), Sam Long (0.2), Chris Stratton (0.0), John Schreiber (1.1), Angel Zerpa (0.2), Carlos Hernandez (0.2), Daniel Lynch (0.2). 
Tigers: Beau Briske (0.5), Alex Lange (0.1), Alex Faedo (-0.5), Matt Manning (0.2), Will Vest (1.1), Sean Guenther (0.4), Keider Montero (-0.1), Kenta Maeda (0.0). 
White Sox: Justin Anderson (0.2), Jared Shuster (0.2), Steven Wilson (-0.7), Fraser Ellard (0.1), Jordan Leasure (-0.4), Prelander Berroa (0.1), Gus Varland (0.5), Cam Booser (0.3), Bryse Wilson (-0.2). 

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Full Disclosure: I didn’t take a ton of time considering the final bullpen spots. However, for the Twins, I included Eiberson Castellano since he is a Rule 5 pick so until he’s not on the roster, he’ll be on the roster. That means that someone like Louie Varland may have to start the season in St. Paul. The Twins signed Michael Tonkin and Justin Topa to avoid arbitration. Tonkin has long been out of options. Ronny Henriquez is also out of options, so would the team let him go for nothing, or could Topa, who has two options remaining, wind up in St. Paul? 

The Guardians have several pitchers coming back from injuries, and several lefties. The Royals have a lot of arms, some who have shown potential at times. I included a couple of starter/long relievers on the Tigers list. And frankly, I have no idea what the White Sox bullpen will look like. I just want to see #OldFriends Prelander Berroa and Cam Booser get an opportunity, and it would be fun to see Varland vs Varland games for the next several years. 

Closers: Is there any question that right now Emmanuel Clase is the class of the division’s closer group. Duran came down to earth in 2024, so he’ll need to have a comeback season to stay ahead of Erceg. 

Top Set-Up Guys: I’ll put Griffin Jax up against any other reliever in the game, but former Twins draft pick Cade Smith was best in baseball in 2024. The Tigers don’t necessarily have a shut-down closer, but they do have some really big arms with stuff to go with it, guys like Alex Lange and Alex Faedo.

Top Lefty: I like Kody Funderburk, and when healthy, his stuff can generate a lot of strikeouts. Mid-90s fastball with a sharp slider. He came up through the organization as a starter so he, at times, can have a third pitch too. Herrin and Vest are the top guys on this list. And Cleveland’s got Minnesota Sam Hentges coming back from injury too. 

The Next Two: Cole Sands came on in 2024 and was more than anyone could have fairly hoped he would become. Jorge Alcala was healthy in 2024 and outside of one really bad game, he was quite good. Again, Cleveland has big arms and depth. Hunter Gaddis has been really good at times. The Tigers and the Royals have a bit of depth too. 

The Bottom Three: The Twins have a couple of mid-30s options with lots of service time. If not Tonkin/Top, then it’s youth in the form of Castellano, Varland, and Henriquez. Cleveland added Slade Cecconi in the Josh Naylor deal. While he hasn’t yet done it in the big leagues, he does have some interesting stuff.

SUMMARY
I went with a little different format for the starting pitchers than the hitters, and with the bullpens, my system goes back to what we did for the hitters. In the first chart, it is just a simple ranking of the five closers (and other categories). The team with the best gets five points. Four points for the second-best. One point for the fifth best, also known as "the worst." 

Then in the second chart, I again gave 10 total points per category. Those 10 points are then allocated between the five teams. In theory, if you felt all of the teams were exactly the same as each other, all of them would get two points. For these, the highest points I gave to anyone was 3.5. 

But I think that what we find is that the Cleveland Guardians have the top bullpen on paper heading into the season. The Twins aren't far behind, especially when, in chart 2, we are able to show scale or differentiation more clearly. The Royals and Tigers both have some good arms but are clearly behind the top two teams. And then there are the White Sox. 

What do you think of these rankings, and how would your rankings look different? 

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[Doctor Gast]

I agree with everything you say. In the near future, CWS will develop some good pitchers.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Really a fun series of articles. Just what I need to read in mid-January. Thanks Seth. I sincerely appreciate your insight. 

[Twinsgypsy]

I think you wrote some really good material in doing the comparisons.  I thought you came up with a nice clean simple scoring system.  It will be interesting to see what the Twins can do to make the team better with all restrictions the team has.  It will take some good creativity on the FO to really make this team have a chance to win the Central,  I think the Guardians , Royals & Twins will make it competitive. The Tigers are also going to be in the mix based on how they finished the second half of last season.  Thanks again creating some good off season reading material.

[jmlease1]

I think a LH specialist in the bullpen is increasingly overrated with the rules on minimum batters faced, so giving that slot the same impact as the closer/fireman or top set-up guy doesn't work for me. frankly, having more depth in your bullpen is more important than having a LH specialist IMHO.

But ranking Cleveland over the Twins is...fine? I think they're very close, and very strong in comparison to the rest of the division and the league.

I know a lot of people are very down on the Twins bullpen, but even in a down season Duran was good and has never been bad for the Twins. That matters when relievers often vary so wildly from year to year. Alcala had some notable implosions, but even with those on his record, he was very effective for the Twins, and he's arguably their 4th or 5th best reliever? The depth is really good here, especially if a couple of the injury guys (Stewart, Topa) are able to go, and that's really impactful over a long season. Don't let recency bias drag you down too far.

[JD-TWINS]

I do like & appreciate the information and comparative thoughts on all the players/positions in the Division! Thanks.

I too think the “lefty” can be valuable but isn’t necessary to thrive within a Team’s PEN.

I opt for Paddack to stick and be an 80-90 inning long/bridge reliever and spot starter once a month. Also, I think the Rule 5 guy will be released or traded for so his status changes and is very doubtful to take a roster spot if it risks somebody with talent and Team history.

Paddack - Varland - Stewart - Topa - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Duran………talent wise, as good of a list of 8, top to bottom as you’ll find. Health???

I think as health gets sorted in Spring, or prior, Tonkin & Henriquez and/or Paddack & Duran are all traded to help infuse more talent on the field at C - 1B!!

I know this is a Reliever Post but how about Pete Alonso on the 1 year deal with player opt outs over a 3 year deal……at $26M/yr?? Seems his market is adrift and Boras has worked this deal with Twins previously…….. (Castro/Paddack/Duran/Vazquez …..team covers $3M…… it’s $28.5M less the $3M……Pete’s covered & we traded for a good young g Catcher) BLUE SKY!!

[Twodogs]

40 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I do like & appreciate the information and comparative thoughts on all the players/positions in the Division! Thanks.

I too think the “lefty” can be valuable but isn’t necessary to thrive within a Team’s PEN.

I opt for Paddack to stick and be an 80-90 inning long/bridge reliever and spot starter once a month. Also, I think the Rule 5 guy will be released or traded for so his status changes and is very doubtful to take a roster spot if it risks somebody with talent and Team history.

Paddack - Varland - Stewart - Topa - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Duran………talent wise, as good of a list of 8, top to bottom as you’ll find. Health???

I think as health gets sorted in Spring, or prior, Tonkin & Henriquez and/or Paddack & Duran are all traded to help infuse more talent on the field at C - 1B!!

I know this is a Reliever Post but how about Pete Alonso on the 1 year deal with player opt outs over a 3 year deal……at $26M/yr?? Seems his market is adrift and Boras has worked this deal with Twins previously…….. (Castro/Paddack/Duran/Vazquez …..team covers $3M…… it’s $28.5M less the $3M……Pete’s covered & we traded for a good young g Catcher) BLUE SKY!!

Probably trade Duran to the Dodgers for Trevor May.  I mean they've got no use for him anymore.   Then make Jax the closer.  You should start a different thread for the Alonzo idea?  I mean it doesn't really fit here, but it might be cool to talk about?  

[IndianaTwin]

There's another distinct role to pull out from The Bottom Three -- The Vulture -- the guy you bring in when you are down one or two in the 5th, 6th or 7th, still in the game but not wanting to use the Closer, TSUG or N2. You want the Vulture to keep it close and hope that your bats can come through. In essence, when you're down a run or two midgame, the Vulture is the guy who determines whether you use the top four or five in the final innings or the Nos. 7 and 8 guy.

Often, but not always, the Vulture is a younger guy working his way up the ladder. They usually end up with sparkling records, since it's hard for them to get a loss. In last year's pen, Cole Sands was probably the closest to it. This may be a polarizing statement, but if you go back to 2023, you'll see that Emilio Pagan actually pitched pretty when he was in that role. Guys like Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek served well in that role for a time before moving toward N2 or TSUG roles.   

With a couple of late implosions, I actually wonder if Alcala might fit well in that role, particularly since the team can be well-served if the Vulture can go more than an inning as Alcala can and particularly if guys like Stewart and Topa show they can be N2 guys. 

[Fatbat]

Please, let the white socks suck for another year. 

[Twinsgypsy]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

There's another distinct role to pull out from The Bottom Three -- The Vulture -- the guy you bring in when you are down one or two in the 5th, 6th or 7th, still in the game but not wanting to use the Closer, TSUG or N2. You want the Vulture to keep it close and hope that your bats can come through. In essence, when you're down a run or two midgame, the Vulture is the guy who determines whether you use the top four or five in the final innings or the Nos. 7 and 8 guy.

Often, but not always, the Vulture is a younger guy working his way up the ladder. They usually end up with sparkling records, since it's hard for them to get a loss. In last year's pen, Cole Sands was probably the closest to it. This may be a polarizing statement, but if you go back to 2023, you'll see that Emilio Pagan actually pitched pretty when he was in that role. Guys like Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek served well in that role for a time before moving toward N2 or TSUG roles.   

With a couple of late implosions, I actually wonder if Alcala might fit well in that role, particularly since the team can be well-served if the Vulture can go more than an inning as Alcala can and particularly if guys like Stewart and Topa show they can be N2 guys. 

I wonder if our new Rule 5 draft acquisition could fit into that if they can do a couple of tweaks or if that might be where Louie fits on the Twins pitching staff.

[tony&rodney]

Good series - thanks.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, Twinsgypsy said:

I wonder if our new Rule 5 draft acquisition could fit into that if they can do a couple of tweaks or if that might be where Louie fits on the Twins pitching staff.

Castellano has to pass the Audition Guy test before getting moved into the Vulture role. What's the Audition Guy test? Read on. 

Here's my full bullpen roster: 

• Closer.
• 8th Inning Guy: He becomes the Closer if Closer is n/a.
• 7th Inning Guy No. 1: He becomes the 8th inning guy if closer is n/a.
• 7th Inning Guy No. 2: He's the other option for the 7th inning guy, since on most days, one of the three guys above are n/a.
• Strand Guy: The guy who comes in with runners on base or to otherwise complete an inning. 
• Vulture: Described above, he's the guy who comes in when the game is tied or down a run or two, particularly in the fifth, sixth or even the seventh, when you don't want to use one of the five guys above, but you want to keep it close enough for the hitters to come through.
• Long Guy/Shuttle Guy: The guy who takes one for the team in blowouts and other short starts. Preferably has an option, since he'll get sent to St. Paul after the game. If he doesn't have an option, he's the guy who's going to get DFAed. At some level, he's also an Audition Guy, hoping to pitch well enough to move up the food chain. 
• Audition Guy: The guy who has just been called up, perhaps as an injury replacement. Gets used in the lowest leverage roles. He's up until he shows that he's ready to move into the one of the upper roles (probably 7th inning Guy 2) or that he's not ready, so he gets sent down for the next Audition Guy. A Rule 5 guy goes here until they earn their way up the ladder or earn a return trip to their former team.

If there were no injuries in spring training*, here's where I'd start. 

• Closer: Duran
• 8th Inning Guy: Jax (I recognize that some want to swap them, but play along.)
• 7th Inning Guy No. 1: Sands, based on how he pitched last year.
• 7th Inning Guy No. 2: Tonkin (no options remaining)
• Strand Guy: Stewart.
• Vulture: Alcala (see my comment above).
• Long Guy/Shuttle Guy: Henriquez. Also out of options, so he has to make the team.
• Audition Guy: Castellano. He can't be sent down, so he has to start on the roster. 

Options matter. Topa and Funderburk have options left, so they only make the team if (when) one of these guys heads to the IL or when one of the out of option/Rule 5 guys shows themselves unworthy of staying on the 26-man. Same thing with Headrick, Varland and Canterino if they move to the pen. Because these guys are on the 40-man, they are followed by non-roster invitees who don't have opt outs.

Did I miss anyone?

*There will be injuries.

 

 

 

[mikelink45]

I am not comfortable with the Twins getting so much applause.  Duran was down, Thielbar dropped quickly and BPs can be so erratic.  I see Cleveland and then a three tie with Detroit, but I have no real confidence that anyone will look the same next year.  

However, I did really enjoy your series.  Thanks for the effort.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree with everything you say. In the near future, CWS will develop some good pitchers.

Yeah CWS. They're going to stink for a couple of more years. But if they ever get a good management team in place and the support of a good owner they will become a major force. Farm system is looking really good and they have no long term bad contracts. Whoever wants to be on top of the Central should take advantage of 2025 and 26 while they can. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Please, let the white socks suck for another year. 

OK   Your wish is granted. Sincerely, The Good Fairy

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I am not comfortable with the Twins getting so much applause.  Duran was down, Thielbar dropped quickly and BPs can be so erratic.  I see Cleveland and then a three tie with Detroit, but I have no real confidence that anyone will look the same next year.  

However, I did really enjoy your series.  Thanks for the effort.  

But speaking of erratic, if I'm a Cleveland fan, I'm asking myself what the chances are of getting this many innings out of guys a second year in a row with virtually no injuries. In order, Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin, Sandlin, Avila. I could have clipped one more and gotten Barlow's 55 innings.

I couldn't find an easy way to find innings pitched in relief, but in terms of games pitched in relief, Cleveland had guys who ranked tied for second, tied for fifth and two guys tied for ninth, plus tied for 34th and tied for 58th. That seems very hard to sustain.

[TopGunn#22]

Excellent point Indiana Twin.  Cleveland's BP was EPIC last year.  Clase had a year few closers have ever had.  That his WAR was just 2.1 amazes me.  But it wasn't just Clase, a LOT of guys in Cleveland's pen were absolutely outstanding.  Cade Smith especially.  There is a strong chance Cleveland's BP will still be good, but could also have some significant regression.  They were THAT good.

You could say the same about Griffin Jax.  He was really good last year.  Can he do it again?  I think so because he was pretty solid in 2023 as well.  There may be a slight regression from Jax, but he will still be good.  I look for Duran to bounce back and be dominant again.  I'm just not confident Rocco will use him exclusively as the CLOSER.  That's how Cleveland uses Clase.  That's what I think Rocco needs to do with Duran.  

The Royals and Tigers look to have a lot of question marks but it's certainly possible some guys will emerge.  I think some trades may get done for the Twins within a week or two and I'm hopeful they will create some excitement for Twins fans.  

[jmlease1]

22 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Excellent point Indiana Twin.  Cleveland's BP was EPIC last year.  Clase had a year few closers have ever had.  That his WAR was just 2.1 amazes me.  But it wasn't just Clase, a LOT of guys in Cleveland's pen were absolutely outstanding.  Cade Smith especially.  There is a strong chance Cleveland's BP will still be good, but could also have some significant regression.  They were THAT good.

Yeah, it'll be interesting. On the one hand, these are all guys that should be in their primes: they're basically all in their mid-20's. On the other hand, they had a bunch of guys whose FIP was quite a bit worse than their ERA, which suggests there may have been some luck in there. They had great health in their bullpen last season, with 4 guys making 70+ appearances (Twins had 1), and it was their best 4 guys too. Is it sustainable? We'll find out, but I think it's fair to expect some drop off.

If you're going to predict drop-off for Jax or Sands, then you should also be predicting the same for Clase or Gaddis or maybe Smith.

Of course in part 5 we're going to see why Cleveland needed such an awesome performance from the their bullpen last season...