The Darnold Decision

[nicksaviking]

For what it's worth, I think the decision was made before this game:

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/kevin-oconnell-appreciates-sam-darnolds-work-but-says-it-did-not-work-out-in-the-end

Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said after Monday night’s loss to the Rams that quarterback Sam Darnold has a “special place in my heart” because of the way he played this season.

From my experience, players usually have a 'special place' in the coach's heart when they are heading out the door.

 

[TheLeviathan]

25 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

For what it's worth, I think the decision was made before this game:

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/kevin-oconnell-appreciates-sam-darnolds-work-but-says-it-did-not-work-out-in-the-end

Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said after Monday night’s loss to the Rams that quarterback Sam Darnold has a “special place in my heart” because of the way he played this season.

From my experience, players usually have a 'special place' in the coach's heart when they are heading out the door.

 

The postgame on KFAN had phrases like "I hope he takes what he learned with him"

[Aggies7]

I wonder if it will come out that his hand is more injured than anyone knows

[gunnarthor]

Final numbers on Sam Darnold are 14-3, 4,300 yards, 35 TDs, and a 102.5 rating and 60.7 QBR. As bad as the last two games were, those are pretty solid numbers and he's still young - the same age as Kyler Murray and only a year older than Tua. 

So the options are:

1) Let him walk
2) sign him to a team friendly bridge deal - something like Baker Mayfield did with TB after going 9-8 4,000 yards, 28 TDs, 94.6 rating and 55.1 QBR.
3) tag him for about 41m to be a bridge QB next year to ease McCarthy in/or trade during pre-season based on injuries around the league.
4) tag him for about 41m to be the QB for next year and listen to trade offers on McCarthy.
5) tag and trade.

I have to think the Vikings and his agent will be working the phone to find a sign and trade type deal. It would be tough to let him just walk, I would think. Teams that need a QB - Jets, Miami?, Steelers, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Giants, Saints, Panthers, Rams (if Stafford retires), Seahawks? (Smith is 35), 49ers? (if they can't get something done with Purdy?).

Anyway, I think #5 is the most likely with #3 next. With all our cap space, I don't think we can just let him walk and get nothing back (do we get draft compensation if he leaves?). 

[TheLeviathan]

10 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

I wonder if it will come out that his hand is more injured than anyone knows

I hope, for his sake, that this is the case.  It doesn't fully explain how frozen and frantic he was, but it at least helps protect him a bit as a person and a pro.  Gives him a shot to keep playing ball.

[Aggies7]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

I hope, for his sake, that this is the case.  It doesn't fully explain how frozen and frantic he was, but it at least helps protect him a bit as a person and a pro.  Gives him a shot to keep playing ball.

Yeah, it didn’t make him not even look at Jefferson on that WR screen 

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Final numbers on Sam Darnold are 14-3, 4,300 yards, 35 TDs, and a 102.5 rating and 60.7 QBR. As bad as the last two games were, those are pretty solid numbers and he's still young - the same age as Kyler Murray and only a year older than Tua. 

So the options are:

1) Let him walk
2) sign him to a team friendly bridge deal - something like Baker Mayfield did with TB after going 9-8 4,000 yards, 28 TDs, 94.6 rating and 55.1 QBR.
3) tag him for about 41m to be a bridge QB next year to ease McCarthy in/or trade during pre-season based on injuries around the league.
4) tag him for about 41m to be the QB for next year and listen to trade offers on McCarthy.
5) tag and trade.

I have to think the Vikings and his agent will be working the phone to find a sign and trade type deal. It would be tough to let him just walk, I would think. Teams that need a QB - Jets, Miami?, Steelers, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Giants, Saints, Panthers, Rams (if Stafford retires), Seahawks? (Smith is 35), 49ers? (if they can't get something done with Purdy?).

Anyway, I think #5 is the most likely with #3 next. With all our cap space, I don't think we can just let him walk and get nothing back (do we get draft compensation if he leaves?). 

The last two games are too fresh in our memories. I'd guess his value tanked hard, but not nearly as low as we currently think. He's still probably no less attractive than Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rodgers.

41M is way too high to pay him next year, but it still will most likely be less guaranteed money than Wilson or Cousins will get so you might get a taker. Hopefully we'll have more clarity in a few weeks.

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Yeah, it didn’t make him not even look at Jefferson on that WR screen 

If his hand was so injured it prevented him from throwing the ball away instead of taking sacks, then he shouldn't have been playing.

[Aggies7]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If his hand was so injured it prevented him from throwing the ball away instead of taking sacks, then he shouldn't have been playing.

It does happen a lot though that a guy plays with an injury that affects his play and then that shatters his confidence. You can’t play the qb position when you’re doubting yourself like that. I think he was mortified of throwing a bad pick, and when your accuracy is out the window, you end up hanging on to the ball too long. 

[gunnarthor]

In any event, I hope Darnold does well wherever he goes. He seems like a nice guy and I like that he rejuvenated his career from bust to - at least - starting caliber QB. 

[Aggies7]

9 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

In any event, I hope Darnold does well wherever he goes. He seems like a nice guy and I like that he rejuvenated his career from bust to - at least - starting caliber QB. 

He’ll get a shot bc so many teams need a guy, but now he may be going to one of those bad situation teams where he’s got much less talent around him. Not only cost himself big money but also probably cost himself a shot with a good team. Although I guess maybe a Pittsburgh type team could grab him

[Parfigliano]

49 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

I wonder if it will come out that his hand is more injured than anyone knows

He was literally scared to throw the ball on a lot of those 9 sacks.  Pain?  Brain freeze?  He looked like a completely different guy.   The last 2 games he looked like he did as a NYJ.

[Aggies7]

3 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

He was literally scared to throw the ball on a lot of those 9 sacks.  Pain?  Brain freeze?  He looked like a completely different guy.   The last 2 games he looked like he did as a NYJ.

The psyche of an athlete is extremely complicated 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

11 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

See that, mods! I tried it your way and look how it went! 😂

Double kudos, since you were the biggest Kirk supporter here, and you haven’t played that card at all the last two weeks 😀

[TheLeviathan]

Just now, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Double kudos, since you were the biggest Kirk supporter here, and you haven’t played that card at all the last two weeks 😀

It's amazing how we went from Captain Checkdown in big games to Captain Never Checkdown in one year.

[Aggies7]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

It's amazing how we went from Captain Checkdown in big games to Captain Never Checkdown in one year.

Next year McCarthy will take the snaps and just sit down. Only logical progression 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Final numbers on Sam Darnold are 14-3, 4,300 yards, 35 TDs, and a 102.5 rating and 60.7 QBR. As bad as the last two games were, those are pretty solid numbers and he's still young - the same age as Kyler Murray and only a year older than Tua. 

So the options are:

1) Let him walk
2) sign him to a team friendly bridge deal - something like Baker Mayfield did with TB after going 9-8 4,000 yards, 28 TDs, 94.6 rating and 55.1 QBR.
3) tag him for about 41m to be a bridge QB next year to ease McCarthy in/or trade during pre-season based on injuries around the league.
4) tag him for about 41m to be the QB for next year and listen to trade offers on McCarthy.
5) tag and trade.

I have to think the Vikings and his agent will be working the phone to find a sign and trade type deal. It would be tough to let him just walk, I would think. Teams that need a QB - Jets, Miami?, Steelers, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Giants, Saints, Panthers, Rams (if Stafford retires), Seahawks? (Smith is 35), 49ers? (if they can't get something done with Purdy?).

Anyway, I think #5 is the most likely with #3 next. With all our cap space, I don't think we can just let him walk and get nothing back (do we get draft compensation if he leaves?). 

Good list. #5 looks realistic. I just don’t know how Darnold can command any confidence in his Vikings teammates after what just happened. Every regular season win next year would be clouded with the narrative “yeah but wait until the playoffs”

[Aggies7]

5 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Double kudos, since you were the biggest Kirk supporter here, and you haven’t played that card at all the last two weeks 😀

It will be interesting to see if Kirk is any better next year, with the extra recovery time for his Achilles. He is not as bad a qb as he showed in Atlanta 

[Aggies7]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Good list. #5 looks realistic. I just don’t know how Darnold can command any confidence in his Vikings teammates after what just happened. Every regular season win next year would be clouded with the narrative “yeah but wait until the playoffs”

This here is the worst part. They could win another 12+ games next season and all the while, nobody is going to believe in them because of the QB. And that nobody includes the team. If you show you melt under the pressure, everyone waits for it to happen, like a self-fulfilling prophecy 

[gunnarthor]

36 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

This here is the worst part. They could win another 12+ games next season and all the while, nobody is going to believe in them because of the QB. And that nobody includes the team. If you show you melt under the pressure, everyone waits for it to happen, like a self-fulfilling prophecy 

Wasn't that the Kirk narrative until it wasn't? Like, he couldn't win prime time games or in the playoffs. I don't recall that really affecting his teammates. My guess is that players generally are less concerned about potential mental blocks than fans are. Just a guess though. 

[Aggies7]

8 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Wasn't that the Kirk narrative until it wasn't? Like, he couldn't win prime time games or in the playoffs. I don't recall that really affecting his teammates. My guess is that players generally are less concerned about potential mental blocks than fans are. Just a guess though. 

Kirk was competent to good in 2/3 playoff games though. Sam has looked like Joe Webb. You can lose but you can’t lose like THAT.

I think it’s very taxing on a defense when they’re giving the offense opportunities and they’re doing nothing with it. Huge part of the last two games 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Wasn't that the Kirk narrative until it wasn't? Like, he couldn't win prime time games or in the playoffs. I don't recall that really affecting his teammates. My guess is that players generally are less concerned about potential mental blocks than fans are. Just a guess though. 

It was, but my recollection is that Cousins tended to make the big moment mistake.  Huge turnover.  Throw short of the sticks.  Throw a pick.  That sort of thing.

Not have a catastrophically terrible game from snap one.  It might be pretty demoralizing as a defense to watch your offense keep going out there and your leader and QB looks that freaking terrible.  Not even a turnover or a big play feels like enough to get them across the line.  It felt like that at home on the couch in the Detroit game.  Darnold was so bad they handed him the ball inside the ten like 3 times and still went 0-fer.  That has to hit your psyche at some point.

Or maybe not, that kind of pressure is unlike anything I've experience personally.

[Musk21]

I don't think I'd be opposed to a Baker Mayfield-like contract for Darnold. As this article lays out, the Mayfield/Darnold situations are similar and the Bucs signed him to pretty friendly deal (somehow his 2024 cap hit was only $6.9M) if they chose to move on from him.

https://www.theringer.com/2025/01/14/nfl/minnesota-vikings-sam-darnold-long-term-contract-jj-mccarthy-wild-card-playoffs

If Darnold would rather go get long-term, mostly guaranteed money from a NYG or TEN or a team like that, you let him go.

[gunnarthor]

20 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

It was, but my recollection is that Cousins tended to make the big moment mistake.  Huge turnover.  Throw short of the sticks.  Throw a pick.  That sort of thing.

Not have a catastrophically terrible game from snap one.  It might be pretty demoralizing as a defense to watch your offense keep going out there and your leader and QB looks that freaking terrible.  Not even a turnover or a big play feels like enough to get them across the line.  It felt like that at home on the couch in the Detroit game.  Darnold was so bad they handed him the ball inside the ten like 3 times and still went 0-fer.  That has to hit your psyche at some point.

Or maybe not, that kind of pressure is unlike anything I've experience personally.

I think your general point is right and Cousins is the better QB but he had some pretty bad games for us on national tv and, even after he finally won a playoff game, he followed that up with a stinker against the 49ers. Ironically, his best playoff game - statwise -was the Giants loss. Which kind of sums up Cousins career. 

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, Musk21 said:

I don't think I'd be opposed to a Baker Mayfield-like contract for Darnold. As this article lays out, the Mayfield/Darnold situations are similar and the Bucs signed him to pretty friendly deal (somehow his 2024 cap hit was only $6.9M) if they chose to move on from him.

https://www.theringer.com/2025/01/14/nfl/minnesota-vikings-sam-darnold-long-term-contract-jj-mccarthy-wild-card-playoffs

If Darnold would rather go get long-term, mostly guaranteed money from a NYG or TEN or a team like that, you let him go.

Nope. He showed that even after half a decade in the game, he's not able to play on the big stage. I could forget one game, but not both of these. The Bucs didn't have their QB if the future in the roster. They made their bed drafting McCarthy, now they have to use that cap space wisely.

[TheLeviathan]

36 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I think your general point is right and Cousins is the better QB but he had some pretty bad games for us on national tv and, even after he finally won a playoff game, he followed that up with a stinker against the 49ers. Ironically, his best playoff game - statwise -was the Giants loss. Which kind of sums up Cousins career. 

Maybe Cousins had a more eclectic series of games than I remember.  

I just feel like (so it's more emotional than a logical argument) that the misery that was Sam Darnold the last two games felt more gut-punching than Cousins ever did.

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

He was literally scared to throw the ball on a lot of those 9 sacks.  Pain?  Brain freeze?  He looked like a completely different guy.   The last 2 games he looked like he did as a NYJ.

No one to throw to.

The Rams pass defense was as dominating as the Lions the week before.

The Rams could make a catch with a defender all over them; the Vikings could not.

[Aggies7]

22 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Maybe Cousins had a more eclectic series of games than I remember.  

I just feel like (so it's more emotional than a logical argument) that the misery that was Sam Darnold the last two games felt more gut-punching than Cousins ever did.

The Vikings were not beating prime SF on the road in 2020. It was not happening. But Kirk won them that game in New Orleans the week prior. The dime he dropped to thielen and then the fade pass to Rudolph on 4th down in OT were arguably the throws of his career. 

Maybe some day Darnold can do that for some other team, but it won’t be for Minnesota from the sound of it.

[Twodogs]

It comes down to this.  If the Vikings could pay Darnold and still address all of their needs on the lines and in the defensive backfield and maybe running back.  Then I think they'd bring him back.  But with McCarthy in there on a rookie contract, I think they let Darnold go and use the money to address other needs.  That is the NFL salary cap.  We saw it with Cousins, when they signed him to big money it was difficult to get anything else done.  If there wasn't a money issue they'd probably definitely bring him back and if he played poorly they'd just bring in the next guy.  But the Cap affects QB decision for sure.

[RpR]

As the announcers said last night, where ever Darnold ends up, it will be for less money now.

Unless they fix the offense front line, who ever is quaterback had better learn to scramble , a Lot.