Luis Gil

[Linus]

Former Twins farmhand Luis Gil was named AL Rookie of the Year. He was traded to the Yankees for Jake Cave. While it was a while ago this trade stings. Even though Gil was a lottery ticket conceptually I would never trade a legit pitching prospect for a bench player. My forever image of the Caveman will be him running in and diving for a ball and ending up 6 feet short of the ball. 

[Danchat]

A lottery ticket by definition isn’t a “legit” prospect, the odds of Gil panning out were slim. And it’s not as if Cave was acquired to just be a bench player, he accrued 2.5 WAR over 530 PAs his first two years. The wheels started to come off after that but I can’t blame the front office for trading a low-odds prospect who won’t have his rookie season for another 6 years for a player who can help the current team.

They lose the trade in hindsight, but the process is fine in my opinion. I’d greenlight the front office to acquire a MLB ready 4th outfielder prospect at the cost of a 19 year old non top 20 pitching prospect again.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

A lottery ticket by definition isn’t a “legit” prospect, the odds of Gil panning out were slim. And it’s not as if Cave was acquired to just be a bench player, he accrued 2.5 WAR over 530 PAs his first two years. The wheels started to come off after that but I can’t blame the front office for trading a low-odds prospect who won’t have his rookie season for another 6 years for a player who can help the current team.

They lose the trade in hindsight, but the process is fine in my opinion. I’d greenlight the front office to acquire a MLB ready 4th outfielder prospect at the cost of a 19 year old non top 20 pitching prospect again.

My definition of a lottery ticket is someone from the low minors. He was no more low odds than any prospect not in the elite category. As far as the time has passed it’s not really relevant. It’s not like the time value of money where the talent is worth more in the short run. You cited Caves 553 plate appearances over two years. That’s the very definition of a bench player. He wasn’t worth much but Falvey rolled the dice and got burned. 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

A lottery ticket by definition isn’t a “legit” prospect, the odds of Gil panning out were slim. And it’s not as if Cave was acquired to just be a bench player, he accrued 2.5 WAR over 530 PAs his first two years. The wheels started to come off after that but I can’t blame the front office for trading a low-odds prospect who won’t have his rookie season for another 6 years for a player who can help the current team.

They lose the trade in hindsight, but the process is fine in my opinion. I’d greenlight the front office to acquire a MLB ready 4th outfielder prospect at the cost of a 19 year old non top 20 pitching prospect again.

Yeah, it didn't turn out to be a good trade, but the Twins traded an A ball no-namer for a AAA prospect who had legit five tool upside. 

[Mike Sixel]

Cool. Cool Let's second guess trading an injured A ball player for a AAA player they actually used at the MLB level. Dude was never highly regarded. If you can't trade this type of player, just quit being a GM. 

[Twodogs]

We are looking at finished products in Gil for Cave trade.  But even had Gil stayed with the Twins, he most likely doesn't pan out the same.  It might have been something he did in NY or some coach he gravitated towards once he was in the NY organization that honestly might not have happened in the Twins organization.  So just because he's lights out now, doesn't mean that had he stayed with the Twins that those same exact things would have happened.  But I mean yeah, wouldn't it be cool to have 

Lopez

Ryan

Ober

Gil

Whatever at 5th.  I mean it's great to fantasize about, but in reality it probably doesn't work out the same.  

[weitz41]

To me it doesn't sting at all. It's like trading Eduardo Escobar for a package with Jhoan Duran in it. Not unlike the Yankees. The Twins traded a player they didn't need that season for a scratch off ticket. Sometimes you get more then you gave up. Most times you don't. There is no way the Diamond backs could have seen Jhoan being what he is today just like Gil to the Twins. Congrats and move on.

[Doctor Wu]

Sure, in retrospect it looks like an awful trade, but that was so many years ago, and giving up a low-level prospect like Gil, and one with injury concerns, didn't seem like a big loss at all. What can you do? Trades like that are the quirks and magic of baseball. No way to properly evaluate all the variables, sometime you just have to take a chance. And hey, Cave wasn't a total wash at all. 

[Riverbrian]

Most trades are equal value at the time of the trade. GM's would have to be pretty in tune to the value of each player. 

There is one sure way to win a trade.

That one sure way is to increase the value of the player you acquired. Make the player you acquire better. 

There is one sure way to lose a trade. 

That one sure way is to decrease the value of the player you acquired. Fail to make the player you acquire better.  

The Yankees didn't win the trade at the time of the deal... they didn't acquire a rookie of the year when the trade was made. They won the trade by developing a rookie of the year.

The Twins lost the trade because Jake Cave after a couple of OK seasons at age 25 and 26... fell apart in his prime at age 27 and decreased in value to the point that he was placed on waivers (Zero Value). Jake Cave wasn't an old vet... He was a 25 year old also with a future in front of him. 

The Twins can't be blamed for the Yankees doing a good job developing Gil. The Twins can be blamed for failing to develop Cave. We needed Cave at the time because we failed to develop a Cave.  

   

[Parfigliano]

On 11/19/2024 at 3:45 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Cool. Cool Let's second guess trading an injured A ball player for a AAA player they actually used at the MLB level. Dude was never highly regarded. If you can't trade this type of player, just quit being a GM. 

Yup.  At trade time Gil was a throw away.  It boomeranged.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Yup.  At trade time Gil was a throw away.  It boomeranged.

great line!

[Doctor Gast]

I'd believe the Twins should have had more faith in Gil & their pitching staff. Cave's best season during the juiced ball, Sid Hartman came out with an article I'll never forget. It stated that in games Buxton started in CF the Twins won 2 out of 3 games, The games that others (Cave) started they lost 2 out of 3 games. Twins desperately needed a CF sub & Cave wasn't it, Wade was a better option but he wasn't the type of hitter that the Twins liked. Cave was a good cOF sub but he wasn't a CF. Twins didn't develop a good CF sub if they had found a better option than Cave then it'd have been worth trading Gil.

[Doctor Gast]

I brought up a '18 MN top prospect list, Gil was not on it. I was surprised on who was on it & how the pitchers fared. None of them are with the Twins the only pitcher that did anything was #7 Graterol (RP).

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2018/twins/

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I brought up a '18 MN top prospect list, Gil was not on it. I was surprised on who was on it & how the pitchers fared. None of them are with the Twins the only pitcher that did anything was #7 Graterol (RP).

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2018/twins/

Got a WS ring.  Trade worked great for Graterol.

[tony&rodney]

Did I count 12 of 20 2018 Twins prospects still in MLB?

[ashbury]

On 11/19/2024 at 11:47 AM, Linus said:

My forever image of the Caveman will be him running in and diving for a ball and ending up 6 feet short of the ball. 

Was that a game in Kansas City? 

If so, then son Cashbury and I were there, to watch the play develop and have the image seared into our retinas too.  It's not just that it was a bad dive, it's that for all intents and purposes he lost the game for them on the spot with that inside-the-park HR; whereas a conservative take on the Texas Leaguer coming his way would have let the pitcher survive for one more batter and maybe still wriggle out with the lead.

If not, then how many such plays did he have, anyway???