Are the Twins Using Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa Optimally?

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You have to consider the quality of the "healthy" player vs Buxton/Correa.  From a chance-to-win standpoint, I would take 50% of Buxton/Correa vs 100% of any of the 4A guys they have been running out lately.

Also, just because they aren't playing full-time right now doesn't mean they can't if needed.  They are trying to protect them as much as they think they can. 

What percentage of Buxton did we get last year? Was that 50%? Cuz if that was 50% Buxton I'll take any 4A player over that.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What percentage of Buxton did we get last year? Was that 50%? Cuz if that was 50% Buxton I'll take any 4A player over that.

Now you are mincing words...

This isn't last year, this is now.  Personally I would rather have Buxton and Correa playing at 85-95% health on a part time basis then whatever healthy 4A player could give us for the remainder of the season.

I bet they do not sit at all if the need is there and/or when the playoffs start.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Now you are mincing words...

This isn't last year, this is now.  Personally I would rather have Buxton and Correa playing at 85-95% health on a part time basis then whatever healthy 4A player could give us for the remainder of the season.

I bet they do not sit at all if the need is there and/or when the playoffs start.

I'm not mincing words. You said you'd take 50% Buxton over a 4A player. I'm trying to figure out what 50% Buxton is. 

And now I'm going to ask if you think they're 85-95% right now. That matters in this conversation. If they're only 50% it's very different than them being 95%. If they're 95% and they are sitting at all that's embarrassing. If they're 85% and sitting at all the Twins really do baby their guys as much as some people say. It's the end of September. They're playing their 150th game of the season. Nobody is 100%.

That's a huge part of this conversation. How healthy are they? If they're 85% they should've played yesterday, and they should play the next 12 games without a question. Of course 85% Buxton is better than a 4A player. The question is if he's 85%, 75%, 65%, 50% and where the line is that makes sense to play him.

And you've already lost that bet. They sat yesterday when the need was there. After having played a whopping 4 innings the night before. 

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

We got Buxton back on Friday and we lost. 

We had Buxton and Correa back on Saturday and we lost. 

Sunday... they both sat out and we win. 

I'm not diminishing the importance of Buxton and Correa by pointing that out. I'm not saying that Buxton and Correa out is why we won. 

Those two are very important but why I'm pointing out is this. 

It's a team game. Just having them on the field means nothing,,, if the other 24 players are not getting the job done.

We need everyone to step up... Offense, defense. bullpen, starters... right here.. right now. We are trying to make the playoffs and in order to do that... we need to realize that we are in the playoffs right now. 

Cleveland is going to throw two left handed starters at us. They have two more in the bullpen. 

You make a good point but I would add that Buxton homered in first game and Team lost. Correa doubled and Buxton helped as well and Team lost. ………..The other dozen hitters need to get together……..they did that on Sunday. Those dozen guys are the ones that lost 17 of 25 or whatever. If they don’t get going it won’t matter what CC & Buxton do.

[Riverbrian]

17 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

You make a good point but I would add that Buxton homered in first game and Team lost. Correa doubled and Buxton helped as well and Team lost. ………..The other dozen hitters need to get together……..they did that on Sunday. Those dozen guys are the ones that lost 17 of 25 or whatever. If they don’t get going it won’t matter what CC & Buxton do.

Buck hit a nice shot in his first game and it is nice to have Correa back. 

My post wasn't a knock on either of those guys... They are potentially big additions. 

I was just trying to say that they are most likely NOT the missing ingredient at this moment. 

The team needs to remember how to play baseball. They have seemed to forgotten how for a stretch. 

If they can get the team playing baseball around them like they did on Sunday without them. Then Buxton and Correa can be Cinnamon and Nutmeg in the team cookie and people will buy that cookie by the dozens. 

I admit that I don't know if cinnamon and nutmeg go into a cookie. 

[KirbyDome89]

12 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You have to consider the quality of the "healthy" player vs Buxton/Correa.  From a chance-to-win standpoint, I would take 50% of Buxton/Correa vs 100% of any of the 4A guys they have been running out lately.

Also, just because they aren't playing full-time right now doesn't mean they can't if needed.  They are trying to protect them as much as they think they can. 

To start, healthy players have full range on defense. They can run the bases, and they're available to come into games. You're ignoring the tradeoff. What does the lineup look like when your CF and SS are on the bench and won't be substituted into a game? How does locking Margot or Farmer into playing time alleviate the 4A dilemma? 

Huh? Do you honestly believe both players are capable of playing full-time but simply aren't while this team is dangerously close to pissing away the final playoff spot? 

[IndianaTwin]

10 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

….. 

I admit that I don't know if cinnamon and nutmeg go into a cookie. 

They go into Mrs. IT’s pumpkin pie, so your analogy at least works there.  

[JD-TWINS]

When this was written Buxton had been activated for 3 games ……,. Correa had been activated for 2 games. They had both sat out Sunday.

The answer is YES.

The two will play as many innings they are able while the Team is competitive. Correa had been out 2 months for a reason - his foot is screwed up. Buxton was out for a reason - his hip is screwed up. Playing any pro sport with a lower body injury is beyond challenging.

Expecting guys to actually go at full tilt for the first time or two and not have to “see how they react” and maybe sit a game ……… and that being negative or unusual is naive, to me.

[Whitey333]

It is a very odd situation.  50% of Buxton and Correa better than 100% of of a 4A type player?  No.  I'd rather have the player that can play everyday. Bringing Buxton and Correa "back" if they can't play seems counter productive.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

When this was written Buxton had been activated for 3 games ……,. Correa had been activated for 2 games. They had both sat out Sunday.

The answer is YES.

The two will play as many innings they are able while the Team is competitive. Correa had been out 2 months for a reason - his foot is screwed up. Buxton was out for a reason - his hip is screwed up. Playing any pro sport with a lower body injury is beyond challenging.

Expecting guys to actually go at full tilt for the first time or two and not have to “see how they react” and maybe sit a game ……… and that being negative or unusual is naive, to me.

Concur, particularly with the bolded statement. I think it's also naive to think that any of us on TD has access to the medical information to be able to speak authoritatively on this subject. 

[USAFChief]

Watching Buxton back off and play Ramirez's "single" on a hop in the 6th inning last night made me sad. The ball landed about 10 feet from him AFTER he backed up. Any MLB centerfielder catches that easily.

 

 

 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not mincing words. You said you'd take 50% Buxton over a 4A player. I'm trying to figure out what 50% Buxton is. 

And now I'm going to ask if you think they're 85-95% right now. That matters in this conversation. If they're only 50% it's very different than them being 95%. If they're 95% and they are sitting at all that's embarrassing. If they're 85% and sitting at all the Twins really do baby their guys as much as some people say. It's the end of September. They're playing their 150th game of the season. Nobody is 100%.

That's a huge part of this conversation. How healthy are they? If they're 85% they should've played yesterday, and they should play the next 12 games without a question. Of course 85% Buxton is better than a 4A player. The question is if he's 85%, 75%, 65%, 50% and where the line is that makes sense to play him.

And you've already lost that bet. They sat yesterday when the need was there. After having played a whopping 4 innings the night before. 

I am going to change the discussion a bit as using percentages doesn't seem to be adequately addressing the main point.

Buxton and Correa were activated because the team felt that, whatever their health condition is, they were a better option then running out the 4A guys that are not producing.  Yes, there is a balance of getting the innings they can, while still trying to keep them on the field.  That means sitting.  Buxton and Correa have looked pretty "normal" when they have played, but we do not know the specifics it takes to get them physically on the field, nor the after affects of playing.  My best guess is that they are healthy, but not healthy enough that a flare up could happen if they overfatigue themselves, or push it to the limit.  That would indicate the reason for not playing every day.  Not knowing specifics makes it hard to fully understand the balancing act.

There are currently 12 games left in the season.  If I have to choose between Kiersey/Castillo types playing all 12 games, or Correa/Buxton playing 7 games while being available to PH the other 5, I choose the latter.   I would also anticipate that the odds of them playing more or all games go dramatically higher the closer we get to the end of season and playoffs.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am going to change the discussion a bit as using percentages doesn't seem to be adequately addressing the main point.

Buxton and Correa were activated because the team felt that, whatever their health condition is, they were a better option then running out the 4A guys that are not producing.  Yes, there is a balance of getting the innings they can, while still trying to keep them on the field.  That means sitting.  Buxton and Correa have looked pretty "normal" when they have played, but we do not know the specifics it takes to get them physically on the field, nor the after affects of playing.  My best guess is that they are healthy, but not healthy enough that a flare up could happen if they overfatigue themselves, or push it to the limit.  That would indicate the reason for not playing every day.  Not knowing specifics makes it hard to fully understand the balancing act.

There are currently 12 games left in the season.  If I have to choose between Kiersey/Castillo types playing all 12 games, or Correa/Buxton playing 7 games while being available to PH the other 5, I choose the latter.   I would also anticipate that the odds of them playing more or all games go dramatically higher the closer we get to the end of season and playoffs.

I agree that that's the logical conclusion to draw from them being on the roster over other players. The discussion on this thread is whether or not we agree with the Twins based on the information we have.

I just don't know how much closer they need to get to the end of the season and playoffs for those odds to "go dramatically higher." They have 12 games left, as you note. That's not very many. And they have a 1.5 game (really 2 since they have the tie breaker) lead in the wild card race. They're completely falling apart while 2 other teams are coming up very quickly on them.

I don't think preferring 7 games of Buxton/Correa to 12 games of Keirsey/Castillo is crazy, but there's real risk in it. What if you only get 5 games from Buxton or Correa? They couldn't play the day after playing 4 innings with their team on the brink of being swept by a sub-.500 team before heading off to play the division leading team that's owned them all season.

How much more desperate do they have to be before they just put them out there and see what happens? Not until Detroit passes them? Not until the last 6 games of the season when multiple teams could've passed them? Your last sentence is my concern. If they're healthy enough to play, now is the time that the odds need to be dramatically higher. You're going to sit them to prevent them not being able to play? So you're not playing them because you might end up having to not play them? It's now. This is the time the team needs them. If they're healthy enough to play today they need to play today. If they come in any day and aren't capable of playing they get 1 more day. If they come in the next day and still can't play it's time to just admit they're hurt and they can't play.

Healthy players don't need to sit proactively because they might have a flare up. Especially when the team is in the midst of a massive collapse and there's only 12 games left. Either they're healthy or they aren't. If they're healthy put them on the field and cross your fingers they don't get hurt. The time for scheduled off days and preventative rest to help guys stay healthy is gone. It's time to put your best 9 on the field and try to beat their 9. There's nothing left to save them for. 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree that that's the logical conclusion to draw from them being on the roster over other players. The discussion on this thread is whether or not we agree with the Twins based on the information we have.

I just don't know how much closer they need to get to the end of the season and playoffs for those odds to "go dramatically higher." They have 12 games left, as you note. That's not very many. And they have a 1.5 game (really 2 since they have the tie breaker) lead in the wild card race. They're completely falling apart while 2 other teams are coming up very quickly on them.

I don't think preferring 7 games of Buxton/Correa to 12 games of Keirsey/Castillo is crazy, but there's real risk in it. What if you only get 5 games from Buxton or Correa? They couldn't play the day after playing 4 innings with their team on the brink of being swept by a sub-.500 team before heading off to play the division leading team that's owned them all season.

How much more desperate do they have to be before they just put them out there and see what happens? Not until Detroit passes them? Not until the last 6 games of the season when multiple teams could've passed them? Your last sentence is my concern. If they're healthy enough to play, now is the time that the odds need to be dramatically higher. You're going to sit them to prevent them not being able to play? So you're not playing them because you might end up having to not play them? It's now. This is the time the team needs them. If they're healthy enough to play today they need to play today. If they come in any day and aren't capable of playing they get 1 more day. If they come in the next day and still can't play it's time to just admit they're hurt and they can't play.

Healthy players don't need to sit proactively because they might have a flare up. Especially when the team is in the midst of a massive collapse and there's only 12 games left. Either they're healthy or they aren't. If they're healthy put them on the field and cross your fingers they don't get hurt. The time for scheduled off days and preventative rest to help guys stay healthy is gone. It's time to put your best 9 on the field and try to beat their 9. There's nothing left to save them for. 

 

You bring many valid points.  I agree the "playoffs" have already started.  No matter what decision they make (play/sit) there is risk.  Risk of keeping them part-time or losing them entirely.  It will be interesting to watch if they can/will increase their workload as time goes on.  Another game lost in the WC race today could really force the issue. 

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

It is a very odd situation.  50% of Buxton and Correa better than 100% of of a 4A type player?  No.  I'd rather have the player that can play everyday. Bringing Buxton and Correa "back" if they can't play seems counter productive.

Keirsey and Helman really don't add anything over playing Margot and Farmer. They're just another warm body. Correa and Buxton add upside on the days they can play. On the days they can't play you will see Farmer and Margot but you would see them just as often with Keirsey and Helman on the roster.

[ewen21]

Seriously?  Buxton missed about 40% of his games.  He’s played in over 100 games ONCE.  Somehow the Twins are doing him wrong?  Why aren’t we questioning his approach?

 

It is impossible to keep him on the field.  They’ve tried EVERYTHING.  This on him.