Can Another Twins Starter Become a Valuable October Bullpen Option?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have officially moved Louie Varland to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. Will another starter join him in the October relief corps?

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

With October baseball looming, the Minnesota Twins have an exciting mix of arms. While the rotation seems poised with four solid options (Pablo López, Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson), the club faces an intriguing decision regarding Zebby Matthews. He has risen through the ranks quickly this season, and Matthews’s pitch mix and demeanor on the mound suggest that a move to the bullpen could be the key to unlocking his potential this October.

Matthews has relied mainly on a three-pitch mix as a starter, featuring a fastball, slider, and cutter. His fastball has averaged 94.8 MPH, but the movement and location have been essential to his success. When he’s on, Matthews's fastball beautifully sets up the rest of his arsenal. However, the demands of a starter often prevent him from maxing out his velocity. That fastball could tick up a few extra miles per hour in shorter stints, making it a more potent weapon in high-leverage situations.

His slider has been another effective tool, with a 39.3 Whiff% and a 23.5 Put Away% when he deploys it with two strikes. When he’s sharp, the break can leave hitters off-balance, and in a relief role, Matthews could rely more heavily on it, knowing he won’t need to conserve energy for multiple innings. His cutter has produced the lowest exit velocity (87.9 MPH) among his top three pitches, but opponents have their highest xSLG (.737) against this pitch. The slider-fastball combination is likely where Matthews would live out of the bullpen.

What could truly separate Matthews as a reliever is his ability to pitch aggressively. His strikeout rates have been solid (21.2 K%), but he’s not overpowering. Shorter outings could allow him to attack hitters, challenging them early in the count and working primarily with his best two pitches. He’s also closing in on a career-high number of innings pitched, so a switch to the bullpen can help the Twins to manage his innings and keep him fresh.

Minnesota’s bullpen has shown some flaws (or at least signs of overuse) in recent weeks, with the manager having a tough time relying on anyone outside of Griffin Jax. Jhoan Durán has allowed seven earned runs in his last 10 innings pitched, but has a 0.88 FIP and a .483 BABIP allowed in that same span. Cole Sands has shown the ability to pitch multiple innings and get outs in high-leverage situations. Jorge Alcalá has allowed runs in five of his last 11 appearances after earning a late-inning role in the season’s middle months. Matthews can’t be a savior for this group, but he can provide another viable option, in the stead of Alcalá if needed or in support of all four of those named above.

Matthews can serve as a swing piece out of the bullpen—ready to enter at critical moments and provide the flexibility Rocco Baldelli values in late-game situations. Also, the postseason always demands flexibility, and teams that can get creative with their pitching staff often succeed more. Matthews could give the Twins that much-needed versatility in October. Whether providing a bridge in the middle innings or stepping up in high-leverage situations, his ability to shift to the bullpen could be a game-changer.

The Twins have seen how valuable converted starters can be in relief roles. Durán, Jax, and Sands were all starters before switching to the bullpen at the big-league level. With Matthews’s pitch mix and the potential to increase his fastball velocity in shorter outings, the team should seriously consider this transition. As the bullpen has endured its ups and downs throughout the season, having a fresh, dynamic arm could provide a critical edge when the shape of the schedule changes next month

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Will the Twins allow Matthews to pitch in relief? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[LambchoP]

Intriguing idea. But do you really want to move a rookie who's learning on the fly back and forth from the pen to the rotation? He was moved up too quickly and should be starting in AA or AAA still. What I really wonder about is Paddack. All his MRI's and imaging have come back clean from the beginning. So what's with the prolonged absence if there's nothing wrong with him. I thought he could be a perfect guy to pitch multiple innings from the pen, just like they did last year with him and Varland. They finally just made the right move to put Varland out there, it'd be nice if they would do the same with Paddack, if he hadn't given up on the season already:( I guess if Paddacks season is done, Zebby to the pen would be the next best option. Who takes his place in the rotation the rest of the way though? Bouschly? Dobnak? That's scary....

[chpettit19]

I think everyone not named Pablo Lopez or Bailey Ober will be bullpen arms come October. Obviously, somebody has to start the game, but I don't think there's another arm on the roster they'll let go through a lineup more than once in a playoff game. 

Game 1: Pablo 
Game 2: Ober
Game 3: SWR once through followed by Varland once through- Hope to get 5 or 6 innings combined
Game 1: Festa once through followed by Zebby once through- Hope to get 5 or 6 innings combined
Game 2: Pablo
Game 3: Ober
Repeat as needed

Depending on how many games they play each series, and where the off days fall, and how rested Pablo and Ober are coming into the postseason things could change and they could get away with fewer "bullpen" days here and there, but that'd be my guess for what their plan will be in the playoffs (with the obligatory "if they get there"). I don't think there's any chance they're letting any of the young guys go more than 4 innings in any game. The real challenge comes if they have to fight until the last day or 2 of the season just to get in and don't have the chance to line up their rotation. Then you might end up with Pablo and Ober not being available until game 3 or something real bad.

[Trov]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think everyone not named Pablo Lopez or Bailey Ober will be bullpen arms come October. Obviously, somebody has to start the game, but I don't think there's another arm on the roster they'll let go through a lineup more than once in a playoff game. 

Game 1: Pablo 
Game 2: Ober
Game 3: SWR once through followed by Varland once through- Hope to get 5 or 6 innings combined
Game 1: Festa once through followed by Zebby once through- Hope to get 5 or 6 innings combined
Game 2: Pablo
Game 3: Ober
Repeat as needed

Depending on how many games they play each series, and where the off days fall, and how rested Pablo and Ober are coming into the postseason things could change and they could get away with fewer "bullpen" days here and there, but that'd be my guess for what their plan will be in the playoffs (with the obligatory "if they get there"). I don't think there's any chance they're letting any of the young guys go more than 4 innings in any game. The real challenge comes if they have to fight until the last day or 2 of the season just to get in and don't have the chance to line up their rotation. Then you might end up with Pablo and Ober not being available until game 3 or something real bad.

Overall I like the idea.  The only thing I would add is do not be rigid with the 1 time through for the rookies.  If they are doing well let them go some extra hitters.  I hate the, well they normally will fail so despite dominating right now we need to change it up. 

[mickster]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think everyone not named Pablo Lopez or Bailey Ober will be bullpen arms come October. Obviously, somebody has to start the game, but I don't think there's another arm on the roster they'll let go through a lineup more than once in a playoff game. 

Game 1: Pablo 
Game 2: Ober
Game 3: SWR once through followed by Varland once through- Hope to get 5 or 6 innings combined
Game 1: Festa once through followed by Zebby once through- Hope to get 5 or 6 innings combined
Game 2: Pablo
Game 3: Ober
Repeat as needed

Depending on how many games they play each series, and where the off days fall, and how rested Pablo and Ober are coming into the postseason things could change and they could get away with fewer "bullpen" days here and there, but that'd be my guess for what their plan will be in the playoffs (with the obligatory "if they get there"). I don't think there's any chance they're letting any of the young guys go more than 4 innings in any game. The real challenge comes if they have to fight until the last day or 2 of the season just to get in and don't have the chance to line up their rotation. Then you might end up with Pablo and Ober not being available until game 3 or something real bad.

I would go with Sands once through over Varland - as Varland looks to be a one inning pitcher.  7th Varland, 8th and 9th Jax/Duran

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

20 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Intriguing idea. But do you really want to move a rookie who's learning on the fly back and forth from the pen to the rotation? He was moved up too quickly and should be starting in AA or AAA still. What I really wonder about is Paddack. All his MRI's and imaging have come back clean from the beginning. So what's with the prolonged absence if there's nothing wrong with him. I thought he could be a perfect guy to pitch multiple innings from the pen, just like they did last year with him and Varland. They finally just made the right move to put Varland out there, it'd be nice if they would do the same with Paddack, if he hadn't given up on the season already:( I guess if Paddacks season is done, Zebby to the pen would be the next best option. Who takes his place in the rotation the rest of the way though? Bouschly? Dobnak? That's scary....

MRI's coming back clean doesn't mean a guy is perfectly healthy and ready to go. The Twins' medical staff hasn't cleared him to pitch. Weird speculation that he's "given up on the season" - why are you saying that? 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Intriguing idea. But do you really want to move a rookie who's learning on the fly back and forth from the pen to the rotation? He was moved up too quickly and should be starting in AA or AAA still. What I really wonder about is Paddack. All his MRI's and imaging have come back clean from the beginning. So what's with the prolonged absence if there's nothing wrong with him. I thought he could be a perfect guy to pitch multiple innings from the pen, just like they did last year with him and Varland. They finally just made the right move to put Varland out there, it'd be nice if they would do the same with Paddack, if he hadn't given up on the season already:( I guess if Paddacks season is done, Zebby to the pen would be the next best option. Who takes his place in the rotation the rest of the way though? Bouschly? Dobnak? That's scary....

Morris would take his place.  He’s another up and comer recently promoted to AAA and has made 4-6 starts there.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

I would go with Sands once through over Varland - as Varland looks to be a one inning pitcher.  7th Varland, 8th and 9th Jax/Duran

I hope Paddack is available to go once through.

[DJL44]

Making a playoff pitching staff is an interesting task.

Starters: Lopez, Ober, Woods-Richardson

Relievers: Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Thielbar

That leaves 5 spots and you get to choose from Festa, Mathews, Tonkin, Varland, Henriquez, Blewett, Paddack (?), Funderburk (?). I would eliminate Blewett, take Paddack if he's healthy. The rest is an open competition. It might be Varland, Festa, Tonkin and Henriquez.

[thelanges5]

Unless they throw in a 6th starter next week with 10 games in a row the rest of the season breaks down like this. 
 

Remaining starts:

Pablo - 3

Zebby - 4

Ober - 4

SWR - 3

Festa - 3

[bean5302]

I'd expect Matthews would be left off the first round roster, assuming the Twins make the first round, where they will almost assuredly be 2 games and done.
Assuming the Twins make the playoffs, and assuming they win the first series, Matthews might be on the roster in the ALDS, but I don't think it'll be as a traditional reliever.

"Just see what happens!" doesn't seem like a great philosophy for the playoffs.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

Overall I like the idea.  The only thing I would add is do not be rigid with the 1 time through for the rookies.  If they are doing well let them go some extra hitters.  I hate the, well they normally will fail so despite dominating right now we need to change it up. 

I will be shocked if they let any of them go longer no matter how they're doing. They wouldn't let Ober and Ryan have unlimited leashes last year and they're better pitchers than any of these guys at this stage. It's just not how they believe in running the team. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, mickster said:

I would go with Sands once through over Varland - as Varland looks to be a one inning pitcher.  7th Varland, 8th and 9th Jax/Duran

Varland has done well in his 2nd innings. It's the 2nd time through the order that he falls apart. I have no problem with Sands being a once through guy, but Varland has performed well enough to be a multi-inning guy. Just not more than once through the lineup.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I'd expect Matthews would be left off the first round roster, assuming the Twins make the first round, where they will almost assuredly be 2 games and done.

Even if they only have a 30% chance of winning an individual game it's only 50/50 that they're 0-2.

[Riverbrian]

Throw away the starter label and the bullpen label for the playoffs. 

In the playoffs... you have 13 pitchers. All hands on deck... utilize as needed. 

162 game schedule rules or guidelines do not apply. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Agree with riverbrian. IF they makes the playoffs (a big IF), the only 2 set starters as in go 6 plus innings are Lopez and Ober. Everyone else is mix and match, all hands on deck, be ready when called upon.  

[mark sills]

I think you let Andrew Morris start next Thursday, and see if he can be pArt of the puzzle

[LambchoP]

How has Morris looked in his AAA starts since his promotion? I know he's pitched great at all the other levels, very similar numbers to Zebby actually. Of course Zebby looked great through AA but then got knocked around in his few AAA starts and has been inconsistent in the bigs. Both Zebby and Morris probably should be starting in St Paul the rest of the season and to start 2025. It's nice when a player forces the team to call them up with performance, not out of desperation because of injuries and lack of depth