5 First Half Surprises for the Minnesota Twins

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins head into the All-Star break firmly in playoff position. To get to this point, there have been some surprise performances up and down the lineup. Will these surprises continue into the second half, or is the regression monster warming in the baseball gods' bullpen?

Image courtesy of Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins entered the season projected to win 85 or more games, and to repeat as champions of the AL Central. Cleveland has been one of baseball’s biggest surprises. Few believed they would be near the top of the AL at the All-Star break, but there they stand. Minnesota has played well in recent weeks, and many of the surprises below are part of why the team has a solid chance to make the playoffs. Can these surprises continue into the second half? The answers aren’t straightforward.

José Miranda, 3B/1B
2.6 rWAR, 148 OPS+
Miranda struggled through a shoulder injury last season, and the Twins didn’t have complete confidence in him entering the 2024 campaign. He began the year at Triple-A, because Minnesota had other options ahead of him on the organizational depth chart. He’s reestablished himself, though, with Baseball Reference ranking him second in WAR behind Carlos Correa. When healthy, Miranda has been one of the organization’s best hitters, and he’s proving his doubters wrong, with a first half that should have earned him consideration for the All-Star team. 

Byron Buxton, CF
2.5 rWAR, 131 OPS+
Last season, there were questions about whether or not Buxton would be able to play center field regularly. Not only has he returned to center field, but he's playing at an elite level on both sides of the ball. Aaron Judge and Jarren Duran are the only AL center fielders with more fWAR than Buxton, and Buxton ranks second to Judge according to wRC+. Defensively, he ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in OAA, Fielding Run Value, Arm Value, and Arm Strength. Even more encouraging is his sprint speed, which is in the 97th percentile. Buxton is on pace to play over 100 games for only the second time in his career, and the Twins are better when Buxton is at his best. 

Simeon Woods Richardson, SP
1.6 rWAR, 116 ERA+
Woods Richardson had much to prove in 2024, after a disastrous 2023 season that saw opponents hit him around at Triple-A with diminished velocity. He revamped his mechanics this winter, and the results speak for themselves. His velocity on his fastball increased from 90.5 to 93.1 MPH, and his other pitches have seen improvements, too. In 16 starts, he's posted a 116 ERA+ with a 20.9 K% and a 7.1 BB%. More importantly, he has put the Twins in position to win, with the Twins going 12-4 in games he started. SWR may be due for some regression in the second half, but he has helped stabilize the back end of the rotation.   

Jorge Alcalá, RP
1.4 rWAR, 261 ERA+
In recent seasons, Alcalá has been impacted by injuries, but the 2024 season might be his coming-out party. His Hard-Hit% is in the 100th percentile, as batters struggle to make solid contact against him. He also ranks in the 88th percentile in average exit velocity, Whiff%, xBA, and xERA. In 30 appearances, Alcalá has a 1.57 ERA, with a 0.96 WHIP and a 24.1 K%. He’s tied with Griffin Jax for the highest rWAR among the team’s relievers. Alcalá has emerged as one of the Twins’ most reliable relief options, and that must continue in the second half for the team to chase down the Guardians.

Josh Staumont, RP
0.7 rWAR, 475 ERA+
Minnesota’s front office hoped Staumont would rediscover his dominant late-inning stuff after two injury-wrecked seasons. It has taken some time, but he might be rounding back into his former self. He didn’t allow any earned runs in his first 19 appearances and left the first half with a 0.87 ERA. His fastball velocity has increased throughout the season, including hitting 101 earlier this month. Staumont may never be the pitcher he was with the Royals. However, this year, he has been better than expected in a middle-inning relief role.

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Do you agree with the five players listed above? What other players should have made the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[mikelink45]

Ryan Jeffers was the first quarter surprise. Margot and Santana have come back from terrible first quarters.  

The disappointments are Farmer and Vasquez and the inconsistency of Lopez (not an Ace yet).  I would add Varland and Julien to the disappointment list too.  

Correa and Castro are proving that last year was not a fluke.  lee and Lewis look to be leaders of the future if Lewis can figure out how to stay healthy.

And Wallner is looking like the prize he was at the end of last season.  Kepler is okay, as is Larnach.  The moves are going to get harder as Lewis returns and if Correa is out for a while I would put Lee at SS over Castro.

Ryan still is rolling and if we can keep Ober from facing KC he is doing very well.  Paddock like Lopez is erratic but as a number five he is fine. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Willi Castro should be on this list in my opinion. 

[Karbo]

I'm really not surprised by Miranda and Buxton doing well, now that they seem to be healthy. Biggest surprise to me is Staumont and to a lesser extent Alcala. I can't wait to see the list of biggest disappointments.

[Doctor Gast]

These guys were surprises because they were given the chance & I'd put All-Star Castro on that list. IMO there are more surprises out there if given sufficient opportunities.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I'm really not surprised by Miranda and Buxton doing well, now that they seem to be healthy. Biggest surprise to me is Staumont and to a lesser extent Alcala. I can't wait to see the list of biggest disappointments.

Gotta say Julien tops the Cape Disappointment list, with Kiriloff right behind, and Pablo and Vazquez not nearly as good as we hoped but at least serviceable and having good moments. Farmer has been horrible at the plate but we didn't really need to see him as much if Julien hadn't been so bad.

Duran hasn't been as dominating as last year but he has been pretty effective.

 

[JD-TWINS]

OPS+ for probable roster when healthy:

Martin - 99

Kepler - 98

Castro - 119

Santana - 112

Larnach - 107

Lee - 109

Lewis - 185

Wallner - 132

Buxton - 131

Jeffers - 121

Correa - 151

Miranda - 148

Vazquez - 44

Gotta be as good of 13 as there are assembled in the game, as of July 17. Can they get healthy soon to get these guys assembled at the same time? ……..that seems to be the key. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Gotta say Julien tops the Cape Disappointment list, with Kiriloff right behind, and Pablo and Vazquez not nearly as good as we hoped but at least serviceable and having good moments. Farmer has been horrible at the plate but we didn't really need to see him as much if Julien hadn't been so bad.

Duran hasn't been as dominating as last year but he has been pretty effective.

 

I think Farmer's baseball to the face had a greater impact than expected.

[JD-TWINS]

Staumont & Alcala have been excellent!

Okert is 1 good - 1 great - 1 bad…..typical “decent middle reliever”. Not reliable.

Thielbar & Funderburk have to be nearing the unusable mode. They are 1 decent - 1 bad - 1 mediocre & repeat. Disappointing after ‘23 levels.

Jax & Stewart (when healthy) are dominant.

Sands has generally filled his role with pretty good results!

Duran’s velocity issues are overstated. He’s still got electric stuff. His speed down 1.5-2.0 MPH on his fastball makes him comparable to Cleveland’s closer, Clase’. His pitch choices (guidance on pitches) seem to be off - he try’s to fool people with his breaking stuff and needs to set everything up off his fastball.

Would like to see Topa contribute the last 45 days & maybe Henriquez to keep arms fresh.

[bean5302]

Happily Surprised
Carlos Correa - Expected wRC+ 130ish 4 WAR pace
Willi Castro - Expected wRC+ 105ish 2.5 WAR pace
Jose Miranda - Expected wRC+ 120ish 2.5 WAR pace
Carlos Santana - Expected wRC+ 95ish 1 WAR pace

About what I expected
Trevor Larnach - Expected wRC+ 100ish 1.5 WAR pace
Ryan Jeffers - Expected wRC+ 105ish 3 WAR pace. 
Brooks Lee - Expected wRC+ 100ish 1.5 WAR pace.
Austin Martin - Expected wRC+ 95ish 1 WAR pace.
Manuel Margot - Expected wRC+ 90ish 1 WAR pace.
Alex Kirilloff - Expected wRC+ 100ish 0 WAR pace.


Big disappointments
Royce Lewis - Expected wRC+ 160ish, 6 WAR pace.
Kyle Farmer - Expected wRC+ 100ish, 2 WAR pace.
Matt Wallner - Expected wRC+ 150ish, 4 WAR pace.
Edouard Julien - Expected wRC+ 110ish, 3 WAR pace.
Max Kepler - Expected wRC+ 120ish, 3 WAR pace.
Christian Vazquez - Expected wRC+ 80ish, 2 WAR pace.

My confidence production levels stay the same varies based on the player. The biggest boost has been Jose Miranda. The production won't continue at wRC+ 150, but it might settle in at 130, and that's absolutely huge. Having a high contact guy to replace Luis Arraez and make the game more interesting is really nice. The biggest disappointment has been Royce Lewis and the gut punch of his opening day injury derailing my expectations he'll likely ever be healthy.

[bean5302]

On the pitching side of things.

Happily Surprised
Joe Ryan - 3.53 ERA, 3.44 FIP
SWR - 3.51 ERA, 3.69 FIP
Jorge Alcala - 1.56 ERA, 2.82 FIP
Cole Sands - 3.52 ERA, 2.84 FIP
Griffin Jax - 1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP

About what I expected
Josh Staumont - 2.83 ERA, 4.24 FIP
Steven Okert - 3.86 ERA, 4.02 FIP
Louie Varland - 6.48 ERA, 4.32 FIP
David Festa - 7.06 ERA, 4.38 FIP
Jay Jackson - 7.52 ERA, 5.44 FIP
Bailey Ober - 4.14 ERA, 3.93 FIP
Chris Paddack - 4.99 ERA, 4.18 FIP
Jhoan Duran - 2.93, 4.24 FIP

Big disappointments
Pablo Lopez - 5.11 ERA, 3.83 FIP
Brock Stewart - 0.68 ERA, 2.94 FIP
Kody Funderburk - 5.61 ERA, 4.65 FIP
Caleb Thielbar - 5.64 ERA, 4.61 FIP

The biggest positive is Simeon Woods Richardson. He's been huge and totally unexpected. I'd written him off after another year of consistently poor performance in the minors. He's sustained his success, and there is reason to expect he can continue being effective enough in the rotation at this point. I think he's outperforming expectations at the moment, but it couldn't have come at a better time. First half Joe Ryan showed up again, and I'm happy to see it. I hope his last 2 starts isn't the beginnings of the appearance of second half Joe Ryan. In the bullpen, it has to be Jax. He's been truly elite, and it's made up for hiccups from Jhoan Duran this year.

Biggest disappointments? Pablo Lopez. While his FIP is right about where I'd expect, the ERA is not. He's put the Twins in a hole time and again this year for a guy who is about to be making $20MM a year. It's been tough to watch especially with the departure of Gray. In the bullpen, Kody Funderburk. I was expecting him to be very good this year as I didn't expect Thielbar to be a long term asset, but reevaluating Funderburk as a lefty option has to happen at this point. Bummer.

[DocBauer]

Biggest surprise? The 7-13 start I NEVER saw coming! Nor did I see so many awful starts to a season from so many. Honestly, was Kirilloff the only one who hit at all during that stretch?

TIED: How good the team has been/played since then. Even with additional injuries and some guys heating up slowly, they've been on about a 100 win pace since that awful start. That's even better than I had projected.

Not overly surprised by Miranda, Buxton, or Alcala, other than Miranda being even better than I had expected/hoped. For these three it was just about being healthy and for Alacala to get the opportunity to be used correctly.

SWR HAS been a surprise, and a BIG one!

Not going to say Staumont is a surprise until I see more high leverage spots. His BB have been a little high and his K's a little low. Feel like I've seen a few too many inherited runners to score and I want to see him come through in a greater "clutch" time or two before I say he's really surprised me.

 

[Doctor Wu]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

SWR HAS been a surprise, and a BIG one!

Gotta agree with that take, I was certainly hoping that he would pitch well when called up, but he has been much more consistent than I had thought. Alcala has also been a pleasant surprise, now that he seems to be healthy. I knew next to nothing about Staumont before we picked him up, but he has also done a very good job so far. Still hoping that guys like Stewart and Topa are able to contribute by the end of the month, but we can't pin too much hope on that happening. 

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, bean5302 said:

On the pitching side of things.

Happily Surprised
Joe Ryan - 3.53 ERA, 3.44 FIP
SWR - 3.51 ERA, 3.69 FIP
Jorge Alcala - 1.56 ERA, 2.82 FIP
Cole Sands - 3.52 ERA, 2.84 FIP
Griffin Jax - 1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP

About what I expected
Josh Staumont - 2.83 ERA, 4.24 FIP
Steven Okert - 3.86 ERA, 4.02 FIP
Louie Varland - 6.48 ERA, 4.32 FIP
David Festa - 7.06 ERA, 4.38 FIP
Jay Jackson - 7.52 ERA, 5.44 FIP
Bailey Ober - 4.14 ERA, 3.93 FIP
Chris Paddack - 4.99 ERA, 4.18 FIP
Jhoan Duran - 2.93, 4.24 FIP

Big disappointments
Pablo Lopez - 5.11 ERA, 3.83 FIP
Brock Stewart - 0.68 ERA, 2.94 FIP
Kody Funderburk - 5.61 ERA, 4.65 FIP
Caleb Thielbar - 5.64 ERA, 4.61 FIP

The biggest positive is Simeon Woods Richardson. He's been huge and totally unexpected. I'd written him off after another year of consistently poor performance in the minors. He's sustained his success, and there is reason to expect he can continue being effective enough in the rotation at this point. I think he's outperforming expectations at the moment, but it couldn't have come at a better time. First half Joe Ryan showed up again, and I'm happy to see it. I hope his last 2 starts isn't the beginnings of the appearance of second half Joe Ryan. In the bullpen, it has to be Jax. He's been truly elite, and it's made up for hiccups from Jhoan Duran this year.

Biggest disappointments? Pablo Lopez. While his FIP is right about where I'd expect, the ERA is not. He's put the Twins in a hole time and again this year for a guy who is about to be making $20MM a year. It's been tough to watch especially with the departure of Gray. In the bullpen, Kody Funderburk. I was expecting him to be very good this year as I didn't expect Thielbar to be a long term asset, but reevaluating Funderburk as a lefty option has to happen at this point. Bummer.

On the pitching side I gotta say Varland & Jackson would fall into the Big Disappointment range for me. I thought Varland could be a 4.50 ERA - .500 type pitcher in ‘24. Hopefully, he can contribute over the last 6-8 weeks of the season………Jackson, while not great, I expected to have situational, shutdown stuff. He was all over relative to results but mostly poor.

Not sure how Staumont could have performed any better. Maybe a couple scares with Walks but that’s it for me …….my assumption is you are stating real time ERA’s and his is only 0.86 not the 2.83 you site above. Definitely, Happily Surprised!

[Otaknam]

20 hours ago, RpR said:

I think Farmer's baseball to the face had a greater impact than expected.

It didn’t affect him last year after the beaning, so I think he has moved on. Je is just playing bad baseball. 

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Gotta agree with that take, I was certainly hoping that he would pitch well when called up, but he has been much more consistent than I had thought. Alcala has also been a pleasant surprise, now that he seems to be healthy. I knew next to nothing about Staumont before we picked him up, but he has also done a very good job so far. Still hoping that guys like Stewart and Topa are able to contribute by the end of the month, but we can't pin too much hope on that happening. 

Speak for yourself. I'm pinning a TON of hope on Stewart! LOL

But seriously, he may just have an arm that only has 40-50 innings max in it. Or, maybe, after pitching so little for about 3 years or so due to injury and rehab, his arm is still getting used to the workload and he'll be stronger going forward?

But if they can just use hum for a single inning and never back to back, he's a real weapon that I'm hoping can make it through the next 3 months. (I'm not counting July).

It APPEARS Topa's knee is doing well. Again with the HOPE he can provide depth and help as a serious middle inning arm, if not better. I'm very encouraged by Staumont. As I stated, I just want to see a little more from him before I check the box that says he's back and reliable.

But I am very encouraged at the moment.

[JD-TWINS]

Just about every reliever comes in and brings along a sense of anxiousness for the Fans.

If he recently had a bad outing people are nervous that he’s losing it………if he had a good outing, he’s due to give up some hits or maybe a run or two. It’s a tough position from which to routinely satisfy the fans.