Trade Market Slow To Develop & Likely An Extreme Seller's Market

[Brock Beauchamp]

Most years, not a lot happens in June trade-wise but this June has been particularly slow, with almost no note-worthy trades happening between teams.

That's primarily due to two reasons:

1. The new postseason format, as many predicted, is keeping more teams in the postseason race than ever before.
2. The ridiculous amount of parity in the leagues, particularly the National League.

As of this writing, only three American League teams and just two National League teams are clear sellers: Oakland, the White Sox, and the Angels in the AL, while Colorado and Miami are the only clear sellers in the NL.

In the American League, 12 of the 15 teams are in a postseason position or within 7.5 games of the third Wild Card spot. In the National League, 13 of the 15 teams are in a postseason position or within just 3.0 games of the third Wild Card spot.

As we head into July, it's likely we will see more stratification amongst the contenders and some teams will drop out of the race and eventually trade expiring contracts but it's hard to imagine many high-profile names moving in the first half of July. We could also see savvy teams like the Rays, currently 4.0 games out of the third Wild Card, take advantage of the seller's market and intentionally bow out of the race. On the other hand, some GMs/PoBOs should be concerned about their jobs, such as Jed Hoyer and the Cubs, and they may try to avoid making the obvious long-term decision of selling assets to improve in later seasons.

Time will tell how this all plays out but don't expect much to happen in the coming days or even weeks.

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

Yes.  On the bright side, it may keep us from making a bad trade — or not.  

[Brandon]

The Twins will be in on a small tweak addition probably a reliever or if they really need to trim payroll I wonder if they try to trade Velazquez or Margot or Farmer.  But I agree that I doubt the Twins do anything significant.  Do they really need to? 

[dxpavelka]

Twins trade their broadcast rights to somewhere where we can freaking watch them play.....

[cmoss84]

Let's make the first trade and set the market!!

[LambchoP]

Trade Farmer and Margot for whatever we can get. Then call up Lee and Keirsey. If we trade Kepler we might get a decent reliever. What we really need is starting pitching, like everyone else...

[Cory Engelhardt]

How do we get Arozarena on the Twins? What would that take?

With how the pitching market is lining up, I'm not really that certain there will be THAT many options for starters who are both A) Available and B) an upgrade over Ober. With that, I hope they do add to the team, and someone like Arozarena would be outstanding here. Outstanding anywhere really, but truly would help.

[Vanimal46]

Kepler would easily be the best OF available on the market if we were to trade him. And frankly, I don’t think there will be much of a drop off in team performance if we do it. 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Kepler would easily be the best OF available on the market if we were to trade him. And frankly, I don’t think there will be much of a drop off in team performance if we do it. 

With that many buyers and few sellers we could see some major leaguer for major leaguer trades instead of vets for prospects like we usually see at the deadine.

[Vanimal46]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

With that many buyers and few sellers we could see some major leaguer for major leaguer trades instead of vets for prospects like we usually see at the deadine.

Wouldn’t be opposed to that. Some team is going to zig when everyone else zags and get a pretty sweet trade return. I’m hoping the Twins are the team that zigs. 

[Vanimal46]

Tampa will be sellers… That’s just what they do. And this is the weakest Rays team in quite some time. CWS should trade Luis Robert but they don’t have to - he’s under control for 3.5 years. I don’t see Texas or Houston selling because Seattle isn’t that good of a team. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Kepler would easily be the best OF available on the market if we were to trade him. And frankly, I don’t think there will be much of a drop off in team performance if we do it. 

I'd take the chance and deal him. He's likely not the difference between advancing in the playoffs and not, not for this team. But NO CHANCE this happens, imo. Frankly, I'd embrace the future this year, and see what they have/need next year.....and deal Kepler for sure as part of that (maybe Santana and put Julien there?). See if Wallner is fixed or not. Get Rodriguez up here when healthy. 

I'd even deal Buxton (yes, he can be traded if properly incentivized), but I can't see that either. 

[RpR]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd take the chance and deal him. He's likely not the difference between advancing in the playoffs and not, not for this team. But NO CHANCE this happens, imo. Frankly, I'd embrace the future this year, and see what they have/need next year.....and deal Kepler for sure as part of that (maybe Santana and put Julien there?). See if Wallner is fixed or not. Get Rodriguez up here when healthy. 

I'd even deal Buxton (yes, he can be traded if properly incentivized), but I can't see that either. 

And we can then challenge Chicago for the bottom spot.

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

And we can then challenge Chicago for the bottom spot.

You’re saying we are going to lose 75% of our games the rest of the season because of trading Kepler?

[RpR]

8 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

You’re saying we are going to lose 75% of our games the rest of the season because of trading Kepler?

No.

Read the whole post I responded to.

[old nurse]

The front office may have to be savvy enough to identify which trams have surpluses in areas of Twins needs and what the Twins have to fill their needs. They should discuss every player on the Tampa Bay roster for prospects to see what prospects they should probably not be trading 

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Kepler would easily be the best OF available on the market if we were to trade him. And frankly, I don’t think there will be much of a drop off in team performance if we do it. 

Non All Star, above average corner outfielders don’t fetch much as rentals.  Do you think they can find an undervalued prospect like they did with Ryan? The haystack is pretty big to find that needle 

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Do you think they can find an undervalued prospect like they did with Ryan? The haystack is pretty big to find that needle

That’s the goal. Seattle showed interest in him and Polanco last winter. Haniger has been dog doo doo for Seattle and they need quality bats to hold off Houston/Texas. 

[Patzky]

18 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Twins trade their broadcast rights to somewhere where we can freaking watch them play.....

Let's trade them to Atlanta. Oh wait they're in the same boat. How about Cleveland? Ah same thing.

 

It isn't a Twins issue. It's an MLB and provider issue.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

That’s the goal. Seattle showed interest in him and Polanco last winter. Haniger has been dog doo doo for Seattle and they need quality bats to hold off Houston/Texas. 

Three broke pitchers and an above average hitting prospect type package improves the Twins?

[Vanimal46]

54 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Three broke pitchers and an above average hitting prospect type package improves the Twins?

?? 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

?? 

What did the Twins get from dealing with Seattle last time.. 

[Vanimal46]

29 minutes ago, old nurse said:

What did the Twins get from dealing with Seattle last time.. 

Why does that matter? You asked if I think the Twins can find an undervalued prospect and I said that’s the goal… with an example of a contending team that needs a RF. 

[LambchoP]

I think we should dangle Farmer Margot and Santana and get whatever we can for them. Try and use Kepler to get some pitching, maybe throw in someone like Severino or Helman who's hitting real well but positionally blocked at the MLB level. We need both SP and bullpen help. And not depth type guys but actual impact guys. Should see what CWS and Mia wants for Crochet and Luzardo. Luzardo especially should come cheap now that he's hurt. As long as it isn't tommy John it would be a move to improve the rotation next year. Crochet would help now and next year but his price tags gonna be sky high. I say pay it, we need an ace.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

What did the Twins get from dealing with Seattle last time.. 

What does that have to do with this time?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

What did the Twins get from dealing with Seattle last time.. 

More than they gave up

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

More than they gave up

3 injured pitchers and a prospect that is only OK at the A+ level for a 2b having a bad year statistically is a lose lose at this point

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

What does that have to do with this time?

Don’t expect a great return if you are trading Kepler 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, old nurse said:

Don’t expect a great return if you are trading Kepler 

Which has nothing to do with the last trade. Imo

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Why does that matter? You asked if I think the Twins can find an undervalued prospect and I said that’s the goal… with an example of a contending team that needs a RF. 

The chance of finding a prospect that is going to be good for a league average bat has a less of a probability of happening than Wallner reducing his 33% strikeout rare in St. Paul at the major league level.