Week in Review: Yanking the Rug Out

[Nick Nelson]

Once again, the Minnesota Twins were on a nice little roll when they ran into the New York Yankees on the schedule. Once again, that dreaded meeting sent them into a depressing death spiral, leaving us all to question the true quality and capability of this frustrating Twins team.

Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/3 through Sun, 6/9
***
Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 34-31)
Run Differential Last Week: -12 (Overall: -6)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (8.5 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 60 | NYY 5, MIN 1: Royce Returns to Familiar Result in NYC
Game 61 | NYY 9, MIN 5: Yankees Pounce on Paddack, Win Again
Game 62 | NYY 8, MIN 5: Twins Shrink in the Bronx Once Again
Game 63 | PIT 3, MIN 0: Lineup Can't Support Strong Ryan Outing
Game 64 | PIT 4, MIN 0: Slumping Offense Comes Up Empty
Game 65 | MIN 11, PIT 5: Twins Break Through in Extras to Win

NO PODCAST EPISODE THIS WEEK SINCE I'M ON THE ROAD IN PITTSBURGH. BUT WE'LL BE BACK NEXT WEEK. SUBSCRIBE ON APPLE OR SPOTIFY SO YOU DON'T MISS OUT!

NEWS & NOTES

Royce Lewis made his long-awaited return to the Twins after spending two months on the injured list, and as we learned last Sunday, Edouard Julien was the unlucky victim of a roster crunch. The slumping second baseman was optioned to Triple-A, where he homered on the first pitch he saw on Wednesday. Hopefully it'll be a short stay in the minors for one of Minnesota's most talented and crucial hitters.

 

Julien was joined at Triple-Al by Brooks Lee, who completed his rehab in Single-A and now looks to get fully back on track in his pursuit of a major-league debut. Lee notched three hits and a pair of walks in his first week back in action at St. Paul. 

HIGHLIGHTS

They went to waste thanks to the Twins offense, but both Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson delivered excellent outings in Pittsburgh. Ryan bounced back from his worst start of the year in Houston with seven innings of two-run ball, striking out eight with only two hits allowed. 

Woods Richardson's outing was even more encouraging, all things considered; he took a shutout into the seventh inning and finished with just one run allowed, striking out six. SWR showcased his newfound velocity bump, averaging 94 MPH with the fastball and touching 97, which would've been unheard of a year ago. The right-hander now owns a 2.84 ERA in 10 starts, and the Twins have gone 7-3 in those games. He's been a lifesaver for the back of the rotation.

 

Offensively, the return of Lewis was really the lone bright spot. He homered in his first two games back, but unfortunately his energy did not prove contagious.

LOWLIGHTS

The lineup is currently a woeful mess, filled with hitters who've either been slumping most of the year or previously hot bats that have gone ice cold. In the latter bucket, you have Max Kepler (4-for-22, 9 K, 1 BB) and Ryan Jeffers (2-for-15). Jeffers is batting .129 with a .286 SLG since May 15th; he's actually been worse over that span since Christian Vázquez. 

Both Kepler and Jeffers have seen their outstanding numbers hurdle back to Earth, which is disappointing but not entirely unexpected. It's a little tougher to accept the performances of players who've been unable to find any offensive game all year.

Byron Buxton is in that group. He picked up three singles in 19 at-bats last week, with six strikeouts and no walks. He's now slashing .223/.276/.357 on the season. As a Buxton fan, I was hoping he'd round into form as he settled and got comfortable, but we're now in June and he's shown no real improvement or progression. At this point, his offensive game seems very limited, and I'm not sure his defensive impact is offsetting his negatives at the plate. That said, there's not much to be done other than keep running the veteran out there and hoping he can find a pulse at the plate.

Alex Kirilloff is not so lucky as to have a $100 million contract keeping him locked into the roster. He's been in a perpetual slump since about the third week of the season, and is coming off another poor week in which he went 1-for-12 to lower his OPS to .674. Kirilloff has played in 55 games this season and has tallied multiple hits in two of them. Honestly, I'd be surprised if he isn't sent down on Monday.

Generally, I'm not sure what to say about this club. After flopping against the Yankees again, they are now 0-14 against the three best teams in the American League (NYY, CLE, BAL) and they have a negative run differential on the season. Their ace Pablo López has a 5.45 ERA – one of three starters with an ERA above five – and their closer Jhoan Durán is at 4.60. 

Nobody is really playing up to their potential. Rocco Baldelli's previous penchant for keeping his team out of prolonged funks has disappeared, with three different five-game losing streaks already on the books. It's getting much tougher to say, "They'll come around." Come around to what? They roster isn't even beat up really. They just haven't been good, nor have they given any substantial reason for anyone to be confident that will change.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Things are kind of slipping away from the Twins. They find themselves 8 ½ games out of first place here in mid-June, with roundly underwhelming performances across the board. Will they shake things up? As mentioned earlier, I would expect to see a fairly significant roster move in the coming week, such as swapping out Kirilloff for Matt Wallner. 

I also wouldn't be surprised to see something like the dismissal of the hitting coach. If David Popkins and his hitting instruction program are not failing, you wonder what that it would look like if they were.

LOOKING AHEAD

It gets easier from here. The Rockies and Athletics are abjectly bad teams. Hopefully the Twins will rattle off some wins at home. Not sure it'll be all that fulfilling or satisfying even if they do. 

MONDAY, JUN 10: ROCKIES @ TWINS – RHP Dakota Hudson v. RHP Chris Paddack
TUESDAY, JUNE 11: ROCKIES @ TWINS – RHP Cal Quantrill v. TBD
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 12: ROCKIES @ TWINS – LHP Austin Gomber v. RHP Pablo López
THURSDAY, JUNE 13: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Luis Medina v. RHP Joe Ryan
FRIDAY, JUNE 14: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Mitch Spence v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
SATURDAY, JUNE 15: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Joey Estes v. RHP Bailey Ober
SUNDAY, JUNE 16: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – LHP JP Sears v. RHP Chris Paddack

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[DocBauer]

My apologies for probably repeating a couple things I've said today in a couple different OP's, but here goes:

1] For a few seconds, I'm almost willing to accept a Yankees curse over the Twins. (Why us?) But I can't accept the HANGOVER affect they leave on the Twins. Following the 1st series, the Twins just bombed against Cleveland. After this last series, they looked completely inept the first 2 games against Pittsburgh. Enough!

2] Except for a handful of games this year, the pitching is not the problem. Even with Lopez performing a Broadway version of Jeckyl and Hyde...which he kinda did early last year also...he's also flashed, as have Ryan, Ober, and Paddack. SWR is still feeling his way, but has absolutely been a lifesaver. And I agreed with the broadcast comments the other day that it just LOOKS like he's feeling more and more confident. 

3] The OFFENSE has been the biggest issue this season, and they were the part of this team I felt the most confident in coming in. Larnach is looking like he's figured it out, Kirilloff, unfortunately, has not. Miranda looks back! Correa is back. Lewis is...well...back. despite a recent slump, Kepler and Jeffers have been really good for the most part. 

Buxton looks like his old self in the field and on the bases. He whips the bat in a way that seems to indicate the bat speed is still there. But he's been downright immune to contact of any significant degree. Julien and Wallner have disappointed so far, though I still like the ability and potential of both. Can they, and possibly Lee, help Jumpstart the offense. Hopefully. But Buck needs to figure something out in a hurry before he's a defensive specialist hitting at the bottom of the order.

I don't like, but accept Vazquez as a defensive specialist these days. But despite a few hits lately, I'm still not seeing much value in Margot overall for the season. And while I'm a Farmer fan and was happy to see him back, he's just been invisible. Santana has been better than I expected. He's actually contributed. But almost daily use, including against RHP isn't really helping anyone. 

All that being said, there's still too much damn talent on hand for the offense to perform these disappearing acts.

4] Offensively, the Twins are way down on K's, but also down on HR production. Though last I heard, they were near the top in doubles. For the UPTEENTH TIME...for anyone wiling to actually listen...the Twins philosophy is NOT "swing for the fences and if you K it's alright". The ACTUAL philosophy is "work the count, tire the pitcher, find something you like, and HIT THE BALL HARD". HITTING THE BALL HARD can mean anything from a sacrifice fly, to a solid base hit, to a double/triple, to and INCLUDING HR's. Actually working the count means you will also end up with some BB as well. Walks are good. The majority of the time, a K is no worse than a pop-up, grounder, or fly ball out. Once in a while they're preferable to a grounder to eliminate a double play ball. But NOBODY wants to set a K record.

So K's are way down, but so is scoring. Part of that is a weak bench of 3 guys in particular. Part of that is missing Royce for 2 months. Part of that is Julien and Wallner needing a reset, with the caveat of Larnach and Miranda being better to actually assist the offense. But part of the issue is there are times where you just need good contact. And that hasn't always been there, despite the offensive principles put in place that actually make a lot of sense.

Nick, you referenced the replacement of Popkins. But my question is, the seeming lack of solid contact that's needed at times...that SHOULD be there based on the Twins basic hitting philosophy...is that on the roster as constructed? An inability for too many of the current roster to get it done? Or is the issue on the teachings of Popkins? Are the Twins hitters being TOO SELECTIVE/PATIENT at times? Or are they not being instructed to make in bat adjustments correctly? Reference the old "choke up" method of hitting?

I'm not saying the Twins do or don't need to make a change in instructors. The basic offensive principal that the Twins employ has been proven to work and makes sense. But the tremendous cold streaks indicate that SOMETHING is missing either in the framework of said philosophy, or the lack of approach and adjustments within.  I just don't know how much of that is on the players, or the instruction.

There's a lot to like about this team, and what's coming up, and there's a lot of season left. But there's just WAY TOO MANY games virtually GIVEN AWAY to the opposition.

[Peter]

Ugly week for sure-yesterday was much needed win. With home stand upcoming and favorable schedule rest of season it’s time to get back on winning streak/claw back into central division race!!! Go Twins!!!

[UpstateNewYorker]

It's gotten hard to tell what exactly the Twins' offensive strategy is, but I don't think it's "work the count." They are 21st in MLB in walks. On the TV broadcast they have said many times that the Twins are the worst team in MLB at hitting breaking balls. It might be our hitters just aren't good enough, no matter the approach.

[mikelink45]

Thanks for another good summary of a bad week.

I keep thinking about the rotation and currently I would see the 1 - 5 positions as

1. Ryan
2. SWR
3. Lopez
4. Ober
5. Paddock

This is not what I expected, but the question comes from the Yankee series - is this a rotation that can win in the post season?  I don't think so.

Buxton is an enigma.  His current OPS+ is 82.   For the last three years his BA and OBP are consistent but not good.  His SLG has diminished three years it a row.  He is not a star and maybe he never was - 2021 was not an indicator of greatness - it was an outlier.  The expectations are from us fans and we have to adjust and he needs to slip down the lineup.

I like Castro and the way he plays the game - I also think we are overusing Jeffers - give him a higher pct of games at C and let Miranda DH.  Is Santana heating up for the rest of the season or is this just a short burst?  Jeffers has reverted to the player we all wanted to trade for the last two years - he fooled us with a second half burst last year.  Will he do it again?

Kiriloff, Julien and Wallner are my biggest disappointments.

Then there is the question of Duran - can he get back his dominance?

[mikelink45]

Fascinating player poll on the Athletic today - who is most overrated - Jazz Chisholm, but coming in third is Carlos Correa - Carlos Correa (6.7 percent), Tim Anderson and Jack Flaherty (5 percent) were next, while Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, Elly De La Cruz, Manny Machado and Blake Snell (3.3 percent) rounded out our leaderboard.

On our team I say Byron Buxton, then Pablo Lopez, Duran, and Ober. - Not sure where to put Correa - he is doing what is needed, but is not the star of a Turner, Betts, or some other SS.

In another poll they asked which teams they would sign with if no taxes, contracts and rosters were considered - guess which team came in last among those on the list at 2.3%?

 

[LambchoP]

Aside from Ryan and SWR, our rotation has been garbage. Tough to see that from Pablo, I guess we put too much pressure on him to be our ace this year. Offense needs some juggling. Just dump Margot and Farmer. Call up Keirsey Jr, maybe E Rod. Might as well give Festa a few spot starts, see if any of them are ready to help us next year. Too bad Buxton looks cooked. Even healthy he's looking at a full season line of that? .220 BA. 10 Hr. 5 SB. . No walks and tons of strikeouts. That's not acceptable for over 15 million per year. Is he just going to be a defensive specialist the rest of his career? :(

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Fascinating player poll on the Athletic today - who is most overrated - Jazz Chisholm, but coming in third is Carlos Correa - Carlos Correa (6.7 percent), Tim Anderson and Jack Flaherty (5 percent) were next, while Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, Elly De La Cruz, Manny Machado and Blake Snell (3.3 percent) rounded out our leaderboard.

On our team I say Byron Buxton, then Pablo Lopez, Duran, and Ober. - Not sure where to put Correa - he is doing what is needed, but is not the star of a Turner, Betts, or some other SS.

In another poll they asked which teams they would sign with if no taxes, contracts and rosters were considered - guess which team came in last at 2.3%?

 

That's a pretty significant misrepresentation of where the Twins ranked in the question about where players would sign. They came in tied for 14th at that 2.3%. Actually a pretty impressive placement considering we're in fly over country. And they didn't receive a single vote for teams with a bad reputation among players.

[h2oface]

"Their ace Pablo López ......"

Seriously? It is really comical to call him an ace. His career ERA is even above 4 again. He never was an ace. It is unfortunately apparent that his one very good 2/3 of a season last year might be an outlier. I just hope he can be a consistent #3. That would be valuable. 

[mikelink45]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That's a pretty significant misrepresentation of where the Twins ranked in the question about where players would sign. They came in tied for 14th at that 2.3%. Actually a pretty impressive placement considering we're in fly over country. And they didn't receive a single vote for teams with a bad reputation among players.

2.3% is good - we certainly see percentages differently. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

2.3% is good - we certainly see percentages differently. 

You claimed the Twins came in last in that poll. That is factually incorrect. They came in 14th out of 30. There were 16 teams that got fewer votes. 9 teams didn't get a single vote. You are significantly misrepresenting where they came in on that poll by claiming they came in last. They didn't. They were in the top half of the league.

[Doctor Gast]

Quote

I also wouldn't be surprised to see something like the dismissal of the hitting coach. If David Popkins and his hitting instruction program are not failing, you wonder what that it would look like if they were.

IMO The problem is not recognizing the inefficiency of the "all or nothing" approach until well into the season. If they reset the hitting program since spring training, we'd be in better shape. IMO the "all or nothing" approach is not Popvich's idea or fault. But that's not to say he'll not be blamed for it. The "all or nothing" approach thrives on FBs not on the outside. That's why all the non-FBs.

Popvich helped Jeffers with breaking away from that approach last year. Somehow pitchers have adjusted & Jeffers is fine-tuning. Buxton is too streaky & not hot enough. Castro & Correa are dependable, Miranda, Kepler,  & Larnach have been good. Kiriloff has been a puzzle (IMO his arm is overused in the OF) he's a great hitter. Even Santana, Margot, Vazquez & Farmer have improved. The problem they're not putting it together & hitting in the clutch. You can help teach not striking out but clutch hitting is hard to teach. Being gut punch again by NYY doesn't help either. Once "Mr Clutch" Lewis gets settled in again we can go on an extended winning streak.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

27 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Popvich helped Jeffers with

Do you mean Popovich? 🙂

[D.C Twins]

Biggest problems are:

1. Veteran 'stars' underperforming. Lopez and Buxton. They are paid and expected to be two of our big-time performers and to date they have both been disappointing. 

2. Veteran journeymen who should have never been signed/acquired AND block young players. Santana, Farmer, and 'you MAR-GOT-to be kidding me' 

... and Nick... if Popkins wasn't fired yet up until this point.... what makes you think they do it now? (Don't get me wrong, I was ready for the whole coaching staff to be gone long ago.... but what is different now?) 

[mikelink45]

On 6/10/2024 at 10:17 AM, chpettit19 said:

You claimed the Twins came in last in that poll. That is factually incorrect. They came in 14th out of 30. There were 16 teams that got fewer votes. 9 teams didn't get a single vote. You are significantly misrepresenting where they came in on that poll by claiming they came in last. They didn't. They were in the top half of the league.

Well I am sorry you are so offended.  Of all the teams listed they were last.  But it amounts to the same thing - are you happy to be 14th?

[chpettit19]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Well I am sorry you are so offended.  Of all the teams listed they were last.  But it amounts to the same thing - are you happy to be 14th?

Not offended, just pointing out your complete inaccuracy. If the list were only 5 teams and they were last on that list would you be upset that they were "last?" 

In a league full of Latin players and guys from warm weather states? Yeah, I'm thrilled with 14th. Did you read the stipulations? Roster makeup didn't matter (so not just looking to join the best team), contracts didn't matter (so not going for the biggest deal), state taxes, etc. didn't matter (still not looking for most money). It was basically picking what location you like best (thus the part where the explanation below the chart says "The responses skewed toward players' residential preferences, with many citing that they'd like to play for the team closest to where they live in the offseason or where they grew up"). You think a lot of guys from warm weather states or Latin countries are picking MN as their offseason home? I'm guessing not. The explainer even mentions some guys wanting to play in the new Texas park or Boston cuz of Fenway. 

The fact that the Twins were even in the middle speaks to how highly players talk about the Twins organization, I'd say. What reason (knowing rosters didn't matter in the question) would any player have for picking MN? There's plenty of things to bash this organization for, but this isn't one of them. You didn't count the number of teams in the chart and assumed it was some big shot at the Twins by the players in MLB. You claimed they were last. It wasn't a shot at the Twins and they weren't last. A flyover location being in the top half is actually pretty shocking. The Reds were the only other team on that list that weren't in a major city (Chicago- Cubs, not Sox), on a coast, or in a warm weather location. This simply wasn't the shot at the Twins you tried to claim it was.

[wabene]

On 6/10/2024 at 9:29 AM, mikelink45 said:

 

In another poll they asked which teams they would sign with if no taxes, contracts and rosters were considered - guess which team came in last among those on the list at 2.3%?

 

That is misleading. They were tied for 14th on that list with 3 other teams. The list was only 18 teams long. So middle of the pack, which is fitting. Not that the poll or list means anything. The MLB is predominantly Southern born US players and Latin players. The unique charms of this state are unknown to them. The pool of players who would vote for the Twins would likely be limited to players from the Midwest or players that had played here. You do see many players in all the sports set up shop here after experiencing what this area has to offer. 

Edit: I see I was ninja'd by the venerable Chpettit.