3 Twins Takeaways from New Bat-Tracking Data

[Matthew Trueblood]

There are brand-new ways to (publicly) quantify and evaluate hitting skills. Let's take a quick look at three insights they yield for the Minnesota Twins.

Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Bat-tracking data has been the next big thing for which lovers of baseball data hungered for over a year, and on Sunday, Baseball Savant went live with new numbers that let us measure and compare players' bat speed, the solidity of their contact, and their directness to the ball. There's still nore coming, but let's take a look at three things we can learn by glancing at the new data through Twins-colored glasses.

Alex Kirilloff's Early-Season Surge, and Subsequent Struggles
Increasingly, the Twins' former top prospect's offensive performance is a topic of concern and conversation. Last week, Cody Pirkl broke down the way Kirilloff has fallen off after a very exciting hot start, and now, we can take a closer look at how that has happened.

Through April 15, Kirilloff's average swing speed was 72.9 miles per hour, and his average swing length (the distance traveled in three-dimensional space by the tip of the bat from the start of the swing to the contact point, whether contact is actually made or not) was 7.7 feet. In the second half of April, the latter number held steady, but the former one fell to 72.1 MPH. Since May 1, Kirilloff is down to 71.9 MPH in average swing speed, and his swing length has crept up to 7.8 feet.

In a vacuum, a shorter swing is better, but because shorter swings tend to be slower ones, we have to balance swing speed and swing length in evaluating a hitter's choices at the plate. Here, though, Kirilloff is losing swing speed without shortening up at all. If anything, the swing is getting a hair loopier, as well as slower. That's bad news, though it's too early in both the season and the public lifespan of this data to know how unusual it is or to assess whether it means Kirilloff is hurt again.

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[Patzky]

Now that we have a new database to ponder we have to learn what to do with it. 

[bean5302]

Kirilloff/Buxton

0/4, they must be hurt!
4/4 next day, 4HR, 5.000 0PS they're back to normal!
2/4 next day, 1.000 OPS, I think they've probably being nagged by something.
0/4, they must be hurt!

Rinse, repeat.

[Reptevia]

That seems like an extremely negligible difference. Given this new WunderMetric™️ is still in its infancy, we should take it with a grain of salt. I’m sure there are 84 other metric-based “reasons” for his decline. Or do the metrics just go down due to a slump?  Tomatoes-Tomattos?

[bean5302]

I suppose I should address the actual data, though, haha. It's a novelty for me right now, but I'm not sure how relevant this data will be. There's getting to be a pretty tall learning curve into baseball analytics for hitters. Compiling all the data into something usable is becoming pretty cumbersome.

I wish we had a more accurate (updated) version of SIERA for pitchers.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Short swing = lower bat speed (usually). Higher bat speed = harder hit ball (if hit 'squarely').

These stats could take a while to become useful. 

[Parfigliano]

Thats alot of math

[Gamblerssoftball]

I have to wonder about the effects of all this on hitters and coaches alike. How much information is too much information. I know it's more than some are going to be able to put into profitable gains. I would advise a cautious approach. 

[Eris]

We have known since Buxton was called up that his swing was too long. I guess Paul Molitor had zero influence on that. 

[Doctor Gast]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Kirilloff/Buxton

0/4, they must be hurt!
4/4 next day, 4HR, 5.000 0PS they're back to normal!
2/4 next day, 1.000 OPS, I think they've probably being nagged by something.
0/4, they must be hurt!

Rinse, repeat.

Agreed IMO these stats are more indicators than measuring sticks. If these dips in stats linger in a player like Kiriloff, then you stop him & ask him if he's battling a cold, a nagging pain, or if he has problems at home or something is distracting him in the clubhouse & try to resolve the problem.

Not say he's a bum should be send down or traded.

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

I have to wonder about the effects of all this on hitters and coaches alike. How much information is too much information. I know it's more than some are going to be able to put into profitable gains. I would advise a cautious approach. 

Teams have been using far more data than this for years. This is not new to them. The teams that are able to pick out the useful data and use it correctly are the ones that get the biggest advantage. But the stuff now being made public is only a tiny fraction of what the teams have been using for years. 

[joefish]

Just let me know what time the game starts. That's all the data I need to enjoy the game.