Relief Pitchers. Do We Ever Really Know?

[stringer bell]

Do we ever really know how a relief pitcher will fare? I tagged five disappointing relief arms that were acquired by the Falvey/Levine front office and didn't even list Emilio Pagán. Many of the pitchers came to Minnesota with good credentials, but crashed and burned. What is interesting is that the two active guys, Floro and López have thrived in their new environments (for now). 

The Twins added several relief pitchers this year, none of whom had a big salary. So far, Jackson has been pretty bad, Okert probably just passable, and Topa and Staumont injured. I guess if you have enough bodies, somebody will thrive, but until they succeed no one really knows how they will do.

[Doctor Wu]

I'm always puzzled and leery of relief pitchers and their track record. Up and down, hit and miss; use whichever cliche best fits, but you are right; there just isn't real way to figure out or predict how these relief pitchers will perform from one year to the next, or even from one month to the next. I remain perplexed. 

[Craig Arko]

That’s why you get a lot of them. Some will fare better than others at different points of the season. 

[Riverbrian]

They are deployed 1 inning at a time.

Bad Innings will happen from time to time and when they do... they take a long time to repair because they are deployed 1 inning at a time.  

I don't have any bullpen concerns at the moment. The pendulum swings. 

[Mike Sixel]

Ya  outside a few great RPs, from what I read, results are somewhat variable year to year..... It's why it's great to trade them at the deadline if you are out of it

[FlyingFinn]

14 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I guess if you have enough bodies, somebody will thrive, but until they succeed no one really knows how they will do.

It makes the ones who succeed every year, like Duran, that much more valuable.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

They are deployed 1 inning at a time.

Bad Innings will happen from time to time and when they do... they take a long time to repair because they are deployed 1 inning at a time.  

I don't have any bullpen concerns at the moment. The pendulum swings. 

Completely accurate - it also takes longer to forget about a bad outing when a guy does pitch well only one inning at a time. Good outings are EXPECTED from relievers at a near 100% rate. They can’t make mistakes and recover in same outing very often. Because they only face 2-6 guys it seems they should just get guys out!!

Thielbar will be better in 3 or 4 of his next 5 outings………Sands, when used a bit more judiciously, will again get outs. Jax was in a game a week ago and he loaded the bases with no outs and then got out of it with only one run……a victory of sorts. At the time most were critical. If Joe Ryan does that in the first inning he’s completely absolved.

Relievers have a tough job - much of it, due to their frequency of use, is between their ears!! Gotta be confident and mentally tough!

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Do we ever really know how a relief pitcher will fare? I tagged five disappointing relief arms that were acquired by the Falvey/Levine front office and didn't even list Emilio Pagán. Many of the pitchers came to Minnesota with good credentials, but crashed and burned. What is interesting is that the two active guys, Floro and López have thrived in their new environments (for now). 

The Twins added several relief pitchers this year, none of whom had a big salary. So far, Jackson has been pretty bad, Okert probably just passable, and Topa and Staumont injured. I guess if you have enough bodies, somebody will thrive, but until they succeed no one really knows how they will do.

It depends on what metric you're talking about when it comes to how a reliever will fare. ERA or FIP? Probably not as they vary wildly, based on luck since relievers just don't pile up a lot of innings.

Bailey Ober's game 1 performance would ruin a whole season for a reliever who pitches 60 innings a year. 8 ER in 60 innings = 1.20 ERA even if the other 50-60 appearances were all scoreless.

Floro's BABIP is .218 this year vs. his career .315 and his xFIP is 3.65 due to his 0.0% HR/FB rate. His 95% strand rate is also completely unsustainable.
Lopez's BABIP is .283 this year vs. his career .318 number, and his xFIP is 4.65 also due to his 0.0% HR/FB rate. Lopez also owns a lucky 80% strand rate.

They'll both regress a lot.