Fun With Numbers 2024 Edition

[GCTF]

David Festa took the L last night. It was the first time since June 8th that the Twins' starting pitcher got the loss. Doesn't necessarily mean anything but, you know, it's fun.

[lecroy24fan]

Simeon Woods-Richardson is making his 16th start tonight. He has a decision in just 4 of them.

[Brandon]

Since the Twins started the season 7-13 they have gone 56-35 a 101 win pace or .620 win percentage.

[lecroy24fan]

On 7/13/2024 at 6:25 PM, lecroy24fan said:

Simeon Woods-Richardson is making his 16th start tonight. He has a decision in just 4 of them.

In 3 starts since I said this, SWR it at 19 starts and 5 decisions.

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

Joe Ryan's season is in jeopardy. If Ryan is not able to make it back for the playoffs, how can the Twins build a playoff rotation that can allow them to compete? The most reliable starter that the Twins have is Bailey Ober. I have consistently been very high on Ober as a legit #2b/#3a type of starter on a contending team. Since April 5th (removing Ober's first start) Ober has the following stats: 

• 12-4 record (21 starts) 
• 2.98 ERA (3.37 FIP / 3.67 xFIP) 
• 126.2 IPs (6 IP per start average) 
• 136 Ks / 30 BBs (9.7 Ks - 2.13 BBs per 9 innings) 
• 84 hits (.90 WHIP) 

This ranks: 

• T2nd in Wins
• 9th in ERA
• 2nd in WHIP
• 17th in K rate, 21st in BB rate, and 15th in K/BB rate
• 10th in ERA-, 17th in FIP-, 28th in xFIP- 

This means that Ober has basically pitched at the level of a contending #2 (and probably pretty close to a contending #1 although I would say that he is a level below that) for the majority of the season. He has been benefiting from some good BABIP luck, but he is also creating some of that luck through his command and ability to mix pitches. These numbers are not that much higher than Ober's career averages, although his secondary stuff, command, and consistency have improved which has allowed him to take a jump and consistently go deeper in games against better lineups.

The next step (and they needed this regardless) is Lopez finding his form. Lopez has had peripherals for most of the year that are pretty similar to his peripherals from last year and suggest results much closer to Ober/Ryan versus what he has been producing. In addition, Lopez's actual numbers have started to improve over the last month and a half even with his mediocre start in his last start. In Lopez's last 8 starts (dating back to June 23rd) his stats are as follows: 

• 49 IP - 38 Hits - 11 BBs - 57 K's - 3.31 ERA - 1.0 WHIP

This leads to advanced stats of: 

• 10.7 K/9 - 2.02 BB/9 - 2.91 FIP - 2.85 xFIP

The main thing holding him back has been a HR% of 12.2% which continues to be high, but as you can see his peripherals continue to be even better than his actual stats -- which may always be the case for Lopez. This means over this time period Lopez has ranked: 

• 25th in ERA
• 25th in ERA-
• 8th in FIP- 
• 4th in xFIP- 

To me, this suggests that Lopez is starting to pitch like he was expected to pitch to start the season even if there is additional consistency and an additional level that he can reach. Lopez has been anywhere from 20-40% above average over the last month and a half and pitching at a #2 level with peripherals that suggest closer to ace level pitching. With Lopez's stuff he is the guy you think can elevate or maintain his numbers better against better lineups than other pitchers including Ober. 

This means that the Twins are trending towards having two contending team-level SPs even with the Ryan injury. It is unfortunate that Ryan may not make it back this season as he was pitching at a contender #2 level as well. So the question for the Twins is how do they find a 3rd SP who they can rely on. I think SWR is a guy that can be apart of a gameplan in a non-Lopez or Ober start to go 2 times through the order (3-4 innings) in a very matchup focused way. This could be the strategy that the Twins move towards along with Paddack. 

I think unfortunately this probably does put the Twins in a disadvantage in Game 1 and Game 3 of a proverbial series. To me, this means the Twins post-season hopes will come down to the development and readiness of David Festa and Zebby Matthews. This is because I think both players have the kind of stuff that can play on a level of Lopez/Ryan/Ober or better. I would argue that pure stuff wise both players profile as having better stuff than any non-Lopez pitchers on the Twins staff. 

The question is on their command, poise, mental game, arm durability this late into a season, and ability to adjust against MLB teams adjustments as scouting reports develop on them. I think there is a lot of reason to be intrigued by Festa's last 3 starts. Against 3 playoff teams or teams in the playoff hunt he has had 3 good starts:

• 14.1 IP - 3 ERs - 9 hits - 5 BBs - 22 Ks

This is an ERA under 2 with an insane strikeout rate of over 14 per 9 innings. Even though he hasn't been going deep into games, he's thrown 82, 68, and 72 pitches through 5 innings. This means that even though he's missing a ton of at bats and getting a lot of strikeouts he's pitching efficiently. Most of the damage that has been done to him has been in the 5th inning (and maybe once in the 6th inning) so he likely does need some additional development and maturation to learn how to get through the order for the 3rd time and maintain his command, control, and consistency as he starts to get him into the upper areas of his pitch count. 

I think that Festa may be able to be a guy that can provide Lopez/Ober level production 2x through the order. In the minors Festa's FB averaged about 96.5mph and so far in the pros he's been in the mid to upper 95 range on average. For reference, Lopez is at about 94.7mph, Ryan is at 93.9mph, and Ober is at 91.9mph. Although we know that Ryan and Ober have physical traits and deliveries that allow their fastballs to play as much higher velocity pitches. Festa throws harder than any of the aforementioned Twins pitchers and sits 94-97mph. In addition, Festa is 6'6 with great extension driven by his length/frame meaning that his fastball also plays even faster than his measured velocity. 

I am looking forward to doing additional deep dive(s) into Festa to see how much that is true based on the data. This fastball velocity and extension is a big part of the reason why he has an 11.2 K/9 rate in his minor league career. This includes a K rate of 12.3 K/9 in 150 innings above AA and 13.4 K/9 at AAA. Festa has actually missed more bats the higher he has risen levels and as he has improved his stuff. This is excited to see because normally this trend is the reverse. I think this is a strong indicator that Festa has really strong MLB stuff.  

In addition to his fastball, Festa has shown an increased ability, willingness, and comfortability throwing his secondary pitches. In the MLB, Festa has thrown his change-up (25%)  and slider (33%) about 58% of the time. He has breaking stuff that can move at 3 different speeds and break downwards towards either side of the zone. This suggests a pitch mix that has the potential to work against both LHP and RHP. As Festa continues to develop, he has a real ability to tunnel effectively off of these pitches. You can see that in this highlight package against the Cubs. 

Festa is able to command his fastball at the bottom of the zone and off of this get swinging strikes with two different levels of vertical drop on the change-up and slides as hitters defend against the fastball. His change-up has really interesting hard downward breaking movement and it looks like he can throw 2 different shapes of breaking balls one that has harder vertical drop and one that moves more horizontally. And then as hitters start to lay off the breaking ball breaking out of the zone he paints the knees with a 96mph fastball. 

This is a pitch mix that profiles as a pitcher who can be a Ryan/Lopez level pitcher or better--a guy who can get both LH & RH hitters out and go the 3rd time through the order. For Festa, his challenge will be his command and how often he gives up home runs. I think something interesting about Festa is that while he is a FB pitcher much like Ryan, Lopez, and Ober he seems to have a pitch mix that looks for him to work in the bottom part of the zone more often. 

In AA/AAA, Festa walked about 4 batters per 9 innings and has given up about 1-1.2 HRs per 9 innings. This does suggest some problems for Festa. He has been improving to some degree as he advances and he has had a 2.2 BB/9 at the major league level. If he struggles to throw strikes, he will probably become more of a 3/4 in the rotation who tries to maximize through 2-2.5x through the order, not throw any pitches that teams can hit, and offsets walks with the swing and miss stuff. If he can get his BB rate under 3 per 9 innings, Festa can be a really good pitcher. 

As for the Twins in this season, I think the most obvious plan is to let Festa/SWR try to combine for 6-8 innings in Game 3. I think allowing Festa and SWR to maximize their velocity and not worry about pitch count can get you enough production where you shouldn't count the season out with the Twins offense. 

The x-factor for the Twins is Zebby Matthews. I think we all know who ZM is so I will keep this short. Matthews has risen quickly through the Twins minor leagues because of his ability to command multiple pitches, limit walks, miss bats, and get outs. At 6'5 225 with a fastball that sits 95-96+ and multiple breaking pitches, he has a profile that may be even higher than Festa's. While it's most likely true that he is not ready this year, if the Twins are serious they should allow themselves to get a chance to see how he can perform. 

If the Twins can add another SP with plus stuff to their rotation who they can trust to go 2x through the order this puts them in a much stronger position. In order to have the depth to get through a 7 game series and keep their bullpen fresh having 3 pitchers (Festa, SWR, and Matthews) who can all eat 3-4-5 innings would put the Twins in a pretty strong position. 

Promoting Matthews would be aggressive based on his experience and his maturation in terms of how many innings he has pitched in his career and this late into the season, but if anyone has the frame to be durable and handle that it's Matthews. 

__________________________________________________________________________________

The Twins IMO have enough pitching talent and "stuff" to contend in the playoffs even without Ryan. The bigger challenge will actually be the volume of innings needed in the regular season. SWR, Festa, Varland, and Paddack all either will not go deep into games or will struggle to throw quality innings. The Twins are going to need to be really creative to rotate arms through and keep their bullpen fresh.

__________________________________________________________________________________

As a Twins fan, if I longer horizon than this year, if the injury to Ryan and lack of moves creates a scenario in which Festa & Matthews are promoted earlier and more aggressively (out of necessity) the Twins front-office and ownership could come out of this looking smart. It is a credit to the Twins front-office and coaching staff that over the past few years they have been able to consistently take starting pitchers and develop them. I have not seen a Twins team that has been able to so consistently get internal development from pitchers, additional velocity and improving pitch mixes. 

Next season and over the next few years if the Twins have (1) Lopez (2) Ryan (3) Ober (4) SWR (5) Festa (6) Matthews this sets them up to have a cost-controlled and elite SP group. Now, we will see how much SWR, Festa, and Matthews can develop and how consistent they can be at the MLB level but really if either Festa or Matthews can develop to the Lopez/Ryan/Ober level the Twins are positioned well for the next 5 years.

[USAFChief]

Without looking, who is 3rd in games played on the Twins as of today?

[lecroy24fan]

I looked. My jaw hit the floor.

[Brandon]

With the Twins Tonkin is averaging 24 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.

[Brandon]

Royce Lewis knocked in his 100th career RBI today.  He has 458 career AB.  Is that the fewest ABs to 100 RBI in Twins history?  for more fun he has 33 HRs as well.  

[Brandon]

Since starting the season in a 3 for 47 slump.  Kyle Farmer has hit .36 for 137 a .263 Ave with 10 Doubles a triple and 5 Home Runs (16 XBH in 137 AB) his slash line since the slump is .263 / .327 / .460 / OPS .787. Which is pretty good for a bench guy, better than Castro.

[USAFChief]

Luis Arraez just had his streak of 141 ABs without a strikeout end.

Longest such streak in 20 years.

[lecroy24fan]

29 is the new MLB record for consecutive hittles pinch hitting Ab's. Margot is in the record books.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, lecroy24fan said:

29 is the new MLB record for consecutive hittles pinch hitting Ab's. Margot is in the record books.

CONGRATS!!*

*to Rocco

[Riverbrian]

15 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

29 is the new MLB record for consecutive hittles pinch hitting Ab's. Margot is in the record books.

It's a pretty incredible record considering he only struck out 5 times. 

It's actually 34 Pinch Hit Plate Appearances total. He did manage to walk 5 times. 

24 of those pinch hit plate appearances were against left handed pitching. So... it's pretty clear that we lost the advantage that we were trying to gain with those 24 pinch hit attempts. 

Let's just use one player (Trevor Larnach) for the example because Trevor has 23 plate appearances against left handers this year. For the sake of discussion. Let's say that all of Margot's pinch hit attempts were coming for Trevor Larnach. 

Larnach has 5 more hits in those 23 PA's. All of this maneuvering resulted in 5 less hits. 

Let's say that Margot had a decent year pinch hitting against left handers. Let's say he got 10 hits in those 24 PA's. All of this maneuvering would have resulted in 5 more hits. 

Over what is now 152 games. You have to wonder about the point of it all. 

[Brandon]

On 9/19/2024 at 8:50 AM, Riverbrian said:

It's a pretty incredible record considering he only struck out 5 times. 

It's actually 34 Pinch Hit Plate Appearances total. He did manage to walk 5 times. 

24 of those pinch hit plate appearances were against left handed pitching. So... it's pretty clear that we lost the advantage that we were trying to gain with those 24 pinch hit attempts. 

Let's just use one player (Trevor Larnach) for the example because Trevor has 23 plate appearances against left handers this year. For the sake of discussion. Let's say that all of Margot's pinch hit attempts were coming for Trevor Larnach. 

Larnach has 5 more hits in those 23 PA's. All of this maneuvering resulted in 5 less hits. 

Let's say that Margot had a decent year pinch hitting against left handers. Let's say he got 10 hits in those 24 PA's. All of this maneuvering would have resulted in 5 more hits. 

Over what is now 152 games. You have to wonder about the point of it all. 

The point of it all is to end up on this thread of course 😃👍

[lecroy24fan]

So out of curiosity I looked at how many pitchers started a game for the Twins this year and was kind of amazed it was only 10, and 2 of them were Henriquez and Okert operating as an opener. 

[stringer bell]

Here is an odd Fun with Numbers stat. Ex-Twin Donovan Solano has a lifetime .279 average, he has 279 lifetime runs scored and lifetime 279 RBI.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Here is an odd Fun with Numbers stat. Ex-Twin Donovan Solano has a lifetime .279 average, he has 279 lifetime runs scored and lifetime 279 RBI.

My daughter just said Solano needs to retire right now, when I read her this.  We raised her right.