What is the Outlook of the Twins Bullpen Heading into Opening Day?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Poor performances and injury concerns have muddied the Twins' plan at the bullpen heading into the season. What is the unit's outlook as Opening Day nears?

When pitchers and catchers reported to Hammond Stadium at the Lee Health Sports Complex in Fort Myers this past Valentine's Day, the Twins were seen to have one of the most formidable bullpens in baseball. FanGraphs projected the Twins bullpen to be the second-best bullpen in MLB, generating 4.5 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR), just behind the Philadelphia Phillies with 4.9. At the time, most projected the team's bullpen to be constructed of the following pitchers:

1. Jhoan Durán - RHP
2. Griffin Jax - RHP
3. Brock Stewart - RHP 
4. Caleb Thielbar - LHP
5. Justin Topa - RHP 
6. Steven Okert - LHP
7. Jay Jackson - RHP 
8. Josh Staumont - RHP

Durán was the closer, Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar were the primary set-up relievers, and Topa, Okert, Jackson, and Staumont would pilot the middle innings with the potential of becoming high-leverage relievers if others higher on the totem pole became injured or performed poorly. Fast forward a month later, and much of the optimism surrounding the 'pen remains. FanGraphs still projects the unit to generate the second most fWAR behind the Phillies. The Twins acquired a bevy of veteran arms intending to assemble one of (if not the) deepest bullpen in MLB. Yet, with a surplus of veteran depth comes a unique hurdle.

The Twins acquired Okert and Jackson, knowing they no longer had minor league options, which effectively guaranteed them spots on the 26-man roster. Fellow recently acquired pitchers Topa and Staumont both have minor league options remaining (Topa has two; Staumont has one), yet either of them beginning the season at Triple-A was deemed unlikely, as the organization sought after both players in trade and free agency, respectively. That being the case, returning relievers Jorge Alcalá and Kody Funderburk were seen to be the primary short relief depth options at Triple-A alongside waiver claim Zack Weiss and non-roster invitees Daniel Duarte, Jeff Brigham, and Ronny Henriquez. 

The organization's plan was well thought out and applauded by most factions of the fanbase. Yet, the organization backed itself into a corner, purposely giving itself little room to maneuver. Seven of the Twins' eight bullpen spots were occupied, with the only wiggle room residing in whether the organization wanted to fill the eighth bullpen spot with Staumont or a stretch reliever in Cole Sands or Brent Headrick. Less than two weeks before the beginning of the 2024 regular season, it is still being determined whether the Twins want to hand the eighth and final bullpen spot to Staumont or a short reliever. However, recent injury updates and performances have shed light on what the team's bullpen construction will look like come March 28.

Thielbar, the Twins' primary left-handed bullpen arm, has been dealing with hamstring issues since the beginning of camp. The 37-year-old Minnesota native had been ramping up earlier this month and recently threw live batting practice against infielder Kyle Farmer, as recorded by Twins Daily's Nick Nelson:

 

Thielbar is behind schedule, and with Opening Day less than two weeks away, it will be difficult for the veteran southpaw to ramp up enough to partake in regular season game action when the Twins head for Kansas City. In response, the Twins will presumably need to hand one of its short relief spots to a reliever who was initially anticipated to be a Triple-A depth arm. Fellow left-handed reliever Funderburk would be the logical substitute. Yet, the 27-year-old has performed poorly this spring, evidenced by a 5.19 ERA over 8 2/3 innings pitched. The Dallas Baptist product has also displayed newfound control issues that weren't present in the 12 dominant innings he threw during his rookie campaign last season. 

With Funderburk not being a viable option, it appears the team will turn to Alcalá to take Thielbar's spot in the bullpen. Alcalá has been quantifiably great in his outings, generating the fourth-highest Stuff+ amongst pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 100 pitches this spring. The hard-throwing righty has also given up a mere 2.57 ERA while striking out seven hitters over seven innings pitched and 28 batters faced. Alcalá has long been viewed as a breakout candidate among Twins-faithful (ask Tom Froemming), but 2024 could be the season where the 28-year-old puts it all together and becomes the high-leverage reliever many thought he could become after his inspiring 2021 campaign. Performing well this spring has presumably given him the opportunity to achieve the lofty expectations placed upon him. 

 

With Alcalá likely replacing Thielbar in the bullpen, the team's eighth bullpen will ultimately come down to whether they prefer Staumont or a stretch reliever. The Twins' preference has gone unknown this spring, yet manager Rocco Baldelli shed light on which reliever the organization could bring to Kansas City. Baldelli told reporters on Saturday that "we need length in our bullpen." Baldelli continued, "Pete (Maki), in his last pitchers meeting, made the statement to the entire group: there might be a couple guys in this room who are likely gonna throw one inning, but everybody else who is a bullpen arm will have to throw more than one inning." Baldelli also noted that, "(the Twins) clearly cannot have six one-inning guys in the bullpen...You can't get through, forget 162 games; you can't get through 13 games in a row over a decent stretch early in the season without a bunch of guys going at least two, if not more than two innings out of your bullpen." 

Baldelli's quotes suggest the Twins could be leaning toward rostering a stretch reliever at the beginning of the season. As noted earlier, Sands or Headrick is the favorite to occupy that role. Headrick has outperformed Sands in Spring Training, though the team will likely prefer to roster a right-hand stretch arm, giving Sands the upper hand. Although Baldelli strongly suggested the team prioritizes rostering relievers who can be stretched out, short relief candidate Staumont has performed well this spring, illustrating a steady increase in velocity coming back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery last August. Barring health, Durán, Jax, Stewart, Topa, Okert, and Jackson are locks to make the Opening Day bullpen. The Twins will likely enter the season with Okert being the only left-handed reliever in the bullpen. Alcalá will presumably take Thielbar's spot, and whether the team's decision-makers elect to bring Staumont or a stretch reliever to Kansas City on Opening Day will depend entirely on organizational preference. 

 

View full article

[mikelink45]

I have said all spring that it is nice to have a good BP projection, but it comes down to the season and the in game performance.  The jury is still out.  Let's hope it gets pieced together. 

[Karbo]

Looks like all that depth will be needed. Now the question is quantity over quality? Only the regular season will be the answer.

[jorgenswest]

20 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Fellow left-handed reliever Funderburk would be the logical substitute. Yet, the 27-year-old has performed poorly this spring, evidenced by a 5.19 ERA over 8 2/3 innings pitched. The Dallas Baptist product has also displayed newfound control issues that weren't present in the 12 dominant innings he threw during his rookie campaign last season. 

This isn’t very compelling evidence. Is his velocity down? Has the movement changed? According to Fangraphs swinging strikes are way up. Velocity is not his ticket to the majors but has it dropped a few ticks from the 91.4?

Velocity is Staumont’s ticket. Has it returned to pre-injury level? I read it was down early on. I also saw he recently hit 98.

I think Alcala already earned a spot over Staumont. If it is between Staumont and Funderburk I am not looking at ERA or even strike outs and walks to make the decision. Even the pitch level data is unreliable at this point but it is far better.

edit: Staumont’s velocity update
 

[Doctor Gast]

It was refreshing to hear Baldelli voice the importance of long relief where as soon as '22 when Bundy & Archer were signed on the idea of incorporating the piggyback system & then later abandoned for the 1 & done approach. That quickly burned out the BP & then the rotation.

[ToddlerHarmon]

My casual glances at box scores tell me Duarte has looked good this spring. Can anyone confirm? If they go for a 1-inning guy, does he have a shot?

[SotaSports in NM]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

This isn’t very compelling evidence. Is his velocity down? Has the movement changed? According to Fangraphs swinging strikes are way up. Velocity is not his ticket to the majors but has it dropped a few ticks from the 91.4?

Fundy does have 12 strikeouts in 8.2 innings this spring. From what I've seen hits against him haven't been hard contact, and the 5 walks isn't all that concerning because as a young pitcher he could be tuning his pitches in spring (like all pitchers do, really). I'd actually be surprised if he doesn't replace Thielbar, with Alcala getting Duran's spot and Staumont/Sands getting the last spot.

[Whitey333]

They sure count on Cole sands a lot these past couple of years.  What has he contributed?  Not much.  He surely isn't worthy of a roster spot.  With all the injuries he will probably make the pitching staff by default.  Even without the rash of injuries this spring the bullpen was/is staffed by a lot of question marks.  Go Twins.

[Beast]

A bunch of AAAA guys and bargain bin guys who were once promising a half decade ago does not continue bullpen depth.  There is no rational basis to believe guys like Alcala, Staumont, etc. will provide any positive value.

[DocBauer]

I don't know if we can accurately state Funderburk has had a bad spring. The 9 BB in 12.1 IP is just awful! But 12K's in those 12 IP and an opponent BA AVG...10 hits in 12 IP...of .217 is awfully good.

I think there's a good chance they'll keep a long man since Rocco is always fearful of a "just in case" game.

If there are no other injuries over the next month, I think the pen can hold on and be OK in the short term, but obviously not as good without Duran. That's a huge blow. 

[Guest]

Can’t say I particularly care for the NY Yankees VIP wrist band.

[JD-TWINS]

Jax - Stewart - Jackson - Okert - Sands - Alcala - Funderburk - Topa……….,a very solid group, just missing The Hammer in the 9th……fingers  crossed for Duran to come back in 6-8 weeks ready to go!!

Thielbar really seems to be breaking down. So, while I think he’ll come back and pitch, even some meaningful innings in ‘24, I think he’s nearly done and could be ineffective v. high end playoff teams. Not holding my breath for him to be a key piece of the Pen this year.

I think Jackson has the biggest chance to be this year’s Joe Smith. His age doesn’t bother me but I’ve seen him pitch twice and his stuff just doesn’t seem to be all that effective. He has a decent track record recently so hoping for the best.