How a Depleted Minnesota Twins Bullpen Figures to Re-Form Itself for Opening Day

When pitchers and catchers reported to Hammond Stadium at the Lee Health Sports Complex in Fort Myers this Valentine's Day, the Twins were seen to have one of the most formidable bullpens in baseball. FanGraphs projected the Minnesota bullpen to be the second-best bullpen in MLB, generating 4.5 Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), just behind the Philadelphia Phillies, at 4.9. At the time, most outlets projected the team's bullpen to be constructed of the following pitchers:

1. Jhoan Durán - RHP
2. Griffin Jax - RHP
3. Brock Stewart - RHP 
4. Caleb Thielbar - LHP
5. Justin Topa - RHP 
6. Steven Okert - LHP
7. Jay Jackson - RHP 
8. Josh Staumont - RHP

Durán was the closer, Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar were the primary set-up relievers, and Topa, Okert, Jackson, and Staumont would pilot the middle innings, with the potential of becoming high-leverage relievers if others higher on the totem pole became injured or performed poorly. Fast-forward a month, and much of the optimism surrounding the pen remains. FanGraphs still projects the unit to generate the second-most fWAR. The Twins acquired a bevy of veteran arms intending to assemble the deepest bullpen in MLB, equipping them with the unique privilege of being able to store multiple MLB-caliber relievers at Triple-A St. Paul.

The Twins acquired Okert and Jackson knowing they no longer had minor-league options, which effectively guaranteed them spots on the 26-man roster. Fellow recently-acquired pitchers Topa and Staumont both have options remaining (Topa has two; Staumont has one), yet either of them beginning the season at Triple-A was deemed unlikely, as the organization sought after both players in trade and free agency, respectively. That being the case, returning relievers Jorge Alcalá and Kody Funderburk were seen to be the primary short-relief depth options at Triple-A alongside waiver claim Zack Weiss and non-roster invitees Daniel Duarte, Jeff Brigham, and Ronny Henriquez. 

The organization's philosophy of hoarding an abundance of replacement-level to above-average arms was applauded by most pundits and fans alike. Alas, recent injury updates have spoiled the front office's well-constructed plans. On Monday, the Twins announced Thielbar (hamstring) and Durán (oblique strain) will begin the season on the 15-day injured list. Thielbar, the Twins' primary left-handed bullpen arm, had been dealing with his issues since the beginning of camp. The 37-year-old Minnesota native had been ramping up earlier this month and recently threw live batting practice against infielder Kyle Farmer, as recorded by Twins Daily's Nick Nelson:

The veteran had eyes on an eleventh-hour comeback attempt. Unfortunately, his nagging injury has sidelined him for at least the season's first week and a half. In response, the Twins will need to promote a short reliever initially anticipated to start the season at Triple-A. Fellow southpaw Funderburk would be the logical substitute. Yet, the 27-year-old has performed poorly this spring, evidenced by a 5.19 ERA over 8 2/3 innings pitched. The Dallas Baptist product has also battled control issues that weren't present in the 12 dominant innings he threw during his rookie campaign last season.

Funderburk's inability to attack the zone could prompt the Twins to hand Alcalá the keys to Thielbar's spot in the bullpen. Alcalá has been quantifiably great in his outings, generating the fourth-highest Stuff+ among pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 100 pitches this spring. The hard-throwing righty has also posted a spare 2.57 ERA, while striking out seven hitters over seven innings pitched and 28 batters faced. Alcalá has long been viewed as a breakout candidate among the Twins faithful (ask Tom Froemming), but 2024 could be the season where the 28-year-old puts it all together and becomes the high-leverage reliever many thought he could become after his inspiring 2021 campaign.

Durán landing on the injured list to begin the season was unexpected. The 26-year-old's early-season absence signifies an emergency test of the organization's stockpiled bullpen depth. With Alcalá replacing Thielbar, it is fair to assume Durán's injury has guaranteed Staumont a spot on the Opening Day 26-man roster. Staumont has struggled with command this spring, evidenced by five walks in just 4 2/3 innings pitched. Still, the former Royals reliever touched 98 miles per hour with his four-seam fastball in his most recent outing. Many questioned whether Staumont would make the roster just days ago. Now, he looks awfully safe. 

With Alcalá replacing Thielbar and Staumont replacing Durán, the team's eighth bullpen job will ultimately come down to whether they prefer a second left-handed reliever (in Funderburk) or an arm that can be stretched out over multiple innings. The Twins' preference has gone unknown this spring, but manager Rocco Baldelli shed light on which type of reliever the organization could bring to Kansas City.

"We need length in our bullpen," the skipper told reporters Saturday. "Pete (Maki), in his last pitchers meeting, made the statement to the entire group: there might be a couple guys in this room who are likely gonna throw one inning, but everybody else who is a bullpen arm will have to throw more than one inning.

"[The Twins] clearly cannot have six one-inning guys in the bullpen," Baldelli continued. "You can't get through, forget 162 games; you can't get through 13 games in a row over a decent stretch early in the season without a bunch of guys going at least two, if not more than two innings out of your bullpen."

Baldelli's quotes suggest the Twins could be leaning toward rostering a stretch reliever at the beginning of the season. Cole Sands or Brent Headrick would be the favorites to inhabit that role. Although Headrick has outperformed Sands in Spring Training, the team will likely prefer to roster a righthander in that kind of job, giving Sands the upper hand. Baldelli strongly suggested the team could prioritize rostering relievers who can be stretched out.

Barring further attrition, Jax, Stewart, Topa, Okert, and Jackson are locks to make the Opening Day bullpen, with Jax and Stewart receiving the bulk of save opportunities. Alcalá will, presumably, take Thielbar's vacated roster spot, Staumont will take Durán's spot, and whether the team's decision-makers elect to bring Funderburk or a stretch reliever to Kansas City on Opening Day will depend entirely on organizational preference.

Reporter credit: @Nick Nelson