Kirilloff as Trade Bait

[nicksaviking]

So I guess Sports Illustrated isn't completely gone. They picked up on a discussion from MLB.TV that I don't think I've seen mentioned here yet. In it Jon Morosi says:

 "Basically what Derek Falvey indicated to me is that Lee will get some reps at second base. If you have Brooks Lee at second potentially, then you can move Julien from second to first, Correa at short, Royce Lewis at third. That's a really athletic infield if everybody's healthy and productive."

I THINK this second part is Morosi conjecture, and not an actual comment from Falvey, but perhaps it was implied to him. Either way, it makes sense and that possibility has been mentioned on this site too. Morosi's next statement was what SI was really getting at: 

"I'm a little bit worried about the Twins' rotation, but the fact that Lee is close to being major league ready, as [Falvey] told me, is a very promising development and it could even create some different options for the Twins to move a position player in a trade to bulk up their starting rotation,"

So I've been advocating for one of Julien or Lee to be traded for top end starting pitching. But SI's take was that it is likely Kirilloff the Twins are aiming to move. Makes sense, and after all, there were early off season reports about the Marlins trying to get first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino from the Royals. Heck, those reports about Pasquantino could have inspired the Twins to pivot to Kirilloff.

If moving Kirilloff is indeed the goal, to me that's a best case scenario in terms of which young players I'd prefer to keep. It seems unlikely Kirilloff has a ton of value, but I'd have thought the same of Pasquantino. And I'm not one to be shy about tossing in other appealing prospects in a trade either. In any case, if this fairy tale is a possibility, I imagine it would hinge on how well Kirilloff looks here in spring training; here's to good health!

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/report-brooks-lees-ascension-could-lead-to-trade-for-pitching

 

 

[tony&rodney]

I'm wondering what team is going to trade a pitcher, the caliber of a Pablo Lopez, one for one for Alex Kirilloff? Even if the Twins add a couple of guys like Gabriel Gonzalez and Kyle Lewis, it seems unlikely to gain a Luzardo or Kirby type starting pitcher. Do the Twins really need to add more #6-10 starting pitchers? I'm not sure why. 

The thing about Alex Kirilloff is his ceiling. The injuries and his status as only having two more arbitration years mean his value is quite low. AK has one complete season, 2018. Take a look at those minor league numbers. Then when one looks at the 2022 and 2023 stints in St. Paul, we can see the possibilities for Kirilloff. Brooks Lee has a very bright future. Does moving him into the Twins lineup and removing Kirilloff strengthen or weaken the Twins?

The Twins are in a difficult position with a full infield, some solid reserves, and a couple of decent guys stashed at AAA. That seems like a fantastic problem to live with unless Miami wants to send Luzardo or Seattle wants to give us Kirby. The chances for those trades are pretty much zero.

Alex Kirilloff played with injuries and seemed ineffective last season but he produced pretty much in line with each of the trio of Julien, Lewis, and Wallner. A whole, fully functioning AK could really be a huge cog in the middle of the Twins lineup.

I'll admit that when Alex let that double play ground ball hop over his glove against Houston, I was down on him. I didn't know his shoulder was that bad though. Injuries can decimate performance - witness Byron Buxton. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don'y make.

[Nashvilletwin]

There is a lot of solid thinking in this conjecture.  And I agree with you that Lee and Julien are ahead of Kirilloff in terms of whom we’d prefer to keep long-term.

Having said that, we still have a hole at DH against RHs (some TDers think Larnach is best suited for that role). Kiriloff can be that DH, play a corner OF and 1B. So Kirilloff trumps Larnach at this point.

But if Lee does break camp with the big club then only one of Kiriloff, Larnach and Martin do as well without an injury.   I could see Kiriloff staying as primary DH against righties and Larnach and Martin start in across the river.  Or we trade Kiriloff as he’d have the most value of those three, but still not that much. 

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

And I agree with you that Lee and Julien are ahead of Kirilloff in terms of whom we’d prefer to keep long-term.

Just curious why you think this?

Julien and Lee have more control financially. Is that the major piece in your thinking? I'm more of a believer in Julien than most and like Lee a ton too. Also I'm a little frustrated with how Kirilloff has had trouble staying on the field. However, in terms of hitting and holding down the middle of the lineup, Kirilloff has a far greater ability to achieve this task than either Julien or Lee. Can he? I don't know. But I think Falvey held him to see if he can do in Minneapolis what he did in St. Paul.

[RpR]

That they picked-up Santana shows they see problems at First Base with Kirilloff.

[DJL44]

If Lee moves to 2B and Julien to 1B (I approve), then do they move Kirilloff or Kepler at the deadline? It makes equal sense to trade Kepler before he walks away next offseason, then play Wallner in RF and Kirilloff in LF.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Lavelle mentioned Kirilloff being traded as well on their chin music podcast. 
Where there is smoke I suppose there could be fire 

[RpR]

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If Lee moves to 2B and Julien to 1B (I approve), then do they move Kirilloff or Kepler at the deadline? It makes equal sense to trade Kepler before he walks away next offseason, then play Wallner in RF and Kirilloff in LF.

Kiriloff is not a good fielder, he has poor range.

Kepler is going nowhere.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Just curious why you think this?

Julien and Lee have more control financially. Is that the major piece in your thinking? I'm more of a believer in Julien than most and like Lee a ton too. Also I'm a little frustrated with how Kirilloff has had trouble staying on the field. However, in terms of hitting and holding down the middle of the lineup, Kirilloff has a far greater ability to achieve this task than either Julien or Lee. Can he? I don't know. But I think Falvey held him to see if he can do in Minneapolis what he did in St. Paul.

Kirilloff's injury history is a big concern. But I don't know about him holding down a middle of the order spot better than Julien. Kirilloff hasn't come close to doing what Julien did last year.

And unless you have a Paul Goldschmidt type, I don't think a team should shy away from moving a 1B who has equity. This team in particular; there are so many internal options.

[chpettit19]

I'd imagine it's pretty hard to get the value right for both teams in a Kirilloff trade right now. The deadline would probably be a more realistic time to see him dealt. Unless another team wants to pay you as if his May or July production from last year is his full season production it's probably best that the Twins see what kind of start he gets off to. And then I agree with @DJL44 and it becomes a question of Kepler or Kirilloff and there'd be a whole lot of other factors that went into that decision. But I don't know that I'd expect a Kirilloff trade before opening day.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd imagine it's pretty hard to get the value right for both teams in a Kirilloff trade right now. The deadline would probably be a more realistic time to see him dealt. Unless another team wants to pay you as if his May or July production from last year is his full season production it's probably best that the Twins see what kind of start he gets off to. And then I agree with @DJL44 and it becomes a question of Kepler or Kirilloff and there'd be a whole lot of other factors that went into that decision. But I don't know that I'd expect a Kirilloff trade before opening day.

I don’t see why it’s Kirilloff vs Kepler. The twins have said that Kirilloff is basically only a 1b going forward, while Kepler is a legitimately good defensive outfielder.

If they trade Kirilloff, I take it more as Lee vs Kirilloff. They would want Lee in the lineup more than Kirilloff in the lineup, in that sense.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t see why it’s Kirilloff vs Kepler. The twins have said that Kirilloff is basically only a 1b going forward, while Kepler is a legitimately good defensive outfielder.

If they trade Kirilloff, I take it more as Lee vs Kirilloff. They would want Lee in the lineup more than Kirilloff in the lineup, in that sense.

I remember them saying he's going to focus on 1B, but I don't remember anything about him being a 1B only. It goes against their standard operating procedure to limit him to 1 spot and say they'll never move him. Even Lewis this offseason said he's not totally locked into 3B only. It'd be Kepler vs Kirilloff, to me, because I'd assume they take the future into consideration when making any trade. They certainly did with the Polanco trade.

What's coming back in return? What do the standings look like? How is everyone playing? Lots of factors would go into it so it's awfully hard to make too strong of a stance either way right now. But of the the 3 guys you listed 2 of them are controlled into the future and 1 isn't. I actually wouldn't expect them to make any mid-season trades that included sending out part of their major league lineup, but if they did I'd think they'd certainly factor in Kepler's lack of team control. If Lee has convinced them that he's a better hitter than Kirilloff they're certainly not trading Lee, but if Kirilloff has built up enough value to be a worthwhile trade chip why would they want to move him? If anyone from the major league lineup is being traded at the deadline I'd assume it's a guy who's about to be a free agent (Kepler, Farmer (unlikely his option is picked up), Santana types).

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I remember them saying he's going to focus on 1B, but I don't remember anything about him being a 1B only. It goes against their standard operating procedure to limit him to 1 spot and say they'll never move him. Even Lewis this offseason said he's not totally locked into 3B only. It'd be Kepler vs Kirilloff, to me, because I'd assume they take the future into consideration when making any trade. They certainly did with the Polanco trade.

What's coming back in return? What do the standings look like? How is everyone playing? Lots of factors would go into it so it's awfully hard to make too strong of a stance either way right now. But of the the 3 guys you listed 2 of them are controlled into the future and 1 isn't. I actually wouldn't expect them to make any mid-season trades that included sending out part of their major league lineup, but if they did I'd think they'd certainly factor in Kepler's lack of team control. If Lee has convinced them that he's a better hitter than Kirilloff they're certainly not trading Lee, but if Kirilloff has built up enough value to be a worthwhile trade chip why would they want to move him? If anyone from the major league lineup is being traded at the deadline I'd assume it's a guy who's about to be a free agent (Kepler, Farmer (unlikely his option is picked up), Santana types).

I think these things can be unrelated. But we will see how the spring looks.

I think Lee is very close to ready, so when he is, he is going to be up and playing right? And he won’t be playing in the outfield.

We will see how it plays out, but I wouldn’t quickly put Kirilloff back in the outfield

[tony&rodney]

The injuries have really put a damper on the thoughts concerning Kirilloff. I do not expect AK to get traded this season unless some team suddenly and against all odds sees him as the missing piece for their team. I don't have a good feel for how Alex is with his wrist , shoulder, conditioning, and swing right now. When i think about the maximum potential of Lee versus Kirilloff in the lineup, I believe more in AK.. Brooks Lee will almost certainly have a strong career, hopefully for the Twins, but Kirilloff has a swing to really boost the lineup. Again, that potential has been muted by injuries up to now. I'm guessing the Twins want a long look before any trade.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think these things can be unrelated. But we will see how the spring looks.

I think Lee is very close to ready, so when he is, he is going to be up and playing right? And he won’t be playing in the outfield.

We will see how it plays out, but I wouldn’t quickly put Kirilloff back in the outfield

Right now they have an opening at DH so I'd put Kirilloff (and/or Julien) there. But I don't know why they wouldn't put Kirilloff back in the outfield if that's what gives them the best fit. I wouldn't actually trade any of these guys. I think they need to bring a bat in, not trade them away. But if you're giving me Lee, Kirilloff, and Kepler as my options for trading at all between now and the deadline there's no doubt Kepler is the guy I'm trading. His Twins career is almost guaranteed to be over after this season. Kirilloff's and Lee's aren't. I'm trading the guy who's leaving anyways before I'm trading the guys I still have cheap control of.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The injuries have really put a damper on the thoughts concerning Kirilloff. I do not expect AK to get traded this season unless some team suddenly and against all odds sees him as the missing piece for their team. I don't have a good feel for how Alex is with his wrist , shoulder, conditioning, and swing right now. When i think about the maximum potential of Lee versus Kirilloff in the lineup, I believe more in AK.. Brooks Lee will almost certainly have a strong career, hopefully for the Twins, but Kirilloff has a swing to really boost the lineup. Again, that potential has been muted by injuries up to now. I'm guessing the Twins want a long look before any trade.

You believe more in AK, like, for the current AND the future?

I guess I can’t go that far.

It would be great if he can be healthy, that’s absolutely a good thing. But I like Lee’s future in the lineup more.

I’d love for both to have long and productive careers

[RpR]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I remember them saying he's going to focus on 1B, but I don't remember anything about him being a 1B only.

 

They picked up Santana, a First Baseman, end of story.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Right now they have an opening at DH so I'd put Kirilloff (and/or Julien) there. But I don't know why they wouldn't put Kirilloff back in the outfield if that's what gives them the best fit. I wouldn't actually trade any of these guys. I think they need to bring a bat in, not trade them away. But if you're giving me Lee, Kirilloff, and Kepler as my options for trading at all between now and the deadline there's no doubt Kepler is the guy I'm trading. His Twins career is almost guaranteed to be over after this season. Kirilloff's and Lee's aren't. I'm trading the guy who's leaving anyways before I'm trading the guys I still have cheap control of.

I think Kepler’s 2024 season, if he can even be 75% of what his 2nd half 2023 was, is more valuable (along with his defense) to winning in 2024 compared to trading him would do.

I don’t see them trading Kepler before the deadline unless they are out of it at that point, which I also don’t expect.

Kirilloff could slide to dh too, that works for me. I hope he is healthy 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

They picked up Santana, a First Baseman, end of story.

I don't see what story this ends at all, but you're welcome to complete any story you'd like.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

They picked up Santana, a First Baseman, end of story.

Santana is a very good defensive 1b who will get a lot of at bats against left handed pitching

[chpettit19]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think Kepler’s 2024 season, if he can even be 75% of what his 2nd half 2023 was, is more valuable (along with his defense) to winning in 2024 compared to trading him would do.

I don’t see them trading Kepler before the deadline unless they are out of it at that point, which I also don’t expect.

Kirilloff could slide to dh too, that works for me. I hope he is healthy 

Yeah, like I said, I don't see them making any trade that takes away from their current major league lineup. Was just saying, hypothetically, if they did, and those were the 3 options on who they traded, I'd trade Kepler. I love Kirilloff's bat, and if he's worth anything in trade it's because he's putting up more .850 or .900+ OPS months. I'm not trading that.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't see what story this ends at all, but you're welcome to complete any story you'd like.

I remember them saying he's going to focus on 1B, but I don't remember anything about him being a 1B only.

[nicksaviking]

15 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think these things can be unrelated. But we will see how the spring looks.

I think Lee is very close to ready, so when he is, he is going to be up and playing right? And he won’t be playing in the outfield.

We will see how it plays out, but I wouldn’t quickly put Kirilloff back in the outfield

I'm not sure which arm he's had his multiple injury issues with, but if it's his throwing arm, outfield might already be a asking too much.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Kepler is going nowhere.

He absolutely is next offseason.

[tony&rodney]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

You believe more in AK, like, for the current AND the future?

I guess I can’t go that far.

It would be great if he can be healthy, that’s absolutely a good thing. But I like Lee’s future in the lineup more.

I’d love for both to have long and productive careers

Naturally (greed) I want both players on the Twins. There really isn't a position for Lee right now but if he forces his way on to the roster the Twins will find a position for him.

I don't believe that health is as easy to predict as we all wished. Alex Kirilloff has had years ruined by TJ surgery, Covid, his wrist X2, and shoulder. That is a bunch of injuries. I don't know about injury-prone.

Look at what AK did in 2018 and at how he dominated in AAA at St. Paul in 2022 and 2023. Perhaps Alex is healed and fully healthy. We will find out soon enough.

For both now and going forward, an Alex Kirilloff who can get in his zone at the plate has the ability to hit for average and power on an every day basis. We may have subdued expectations because of the repeated time missed, which is to be expected. 

Like I said, Lee is real close and should be good, but he has never dominated like Kirilloff at the plate and still must conquer AAA. BTW - I believe Brooks Lee will do very well at AAA.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, RpR said:

I remember them saying he's going to focus on 1B, but I don't remember anything about him being a 1B only.

Yes? I don't believe Carlos Santana is taking Alex Kirilloff's job. They have a DH spot. So while I don't think Kirilloff is a 1B only, there's also a possibility he doesn't play in the OF. I don't think they're going to refuse to play him in the OF, but I don't think the Santana signing is some sort of indication that he isn't playing 1B primarily, or even solely. So I don't believe any story is ended. They have Larnach as a lefthanded OFer so does that end the story on Kirilloff playing the OF? I don't see any story being ended at all, sorry.

[Cory Engelhardt]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He absolutely is next offseason.

Still a ton of value for this season though 

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Naturally (greed) I want both players on the Twins. There really isn't a position for Lee right now but if he forces his way on to the roster the Twins will find a position for him.

I don't believe that health is as easy to predict as we all wished. Alex Kirilloff has had years ruined by TJ surgery, Covid, his wrist X2, and shoulder. That is a bunch of injuries. I don't know about injury-prone.

Look at what AK did in 2018 and at how he dominated in AAA at St. Paul in 2022 and 2023. Perhaps Alex is healed and fully healthy. We will find out soon enough.

For both now and going forward, an Alex Kirilloff who can get in his zone at the plate has the ability to hit for average and power on an every day basis. We may have subdued expectations because of the repeated time missed, which is to be expected. 

Like I said, Lee is real close and should be good, but he has never dominated like Kirilloff at the plate and still must conquer AAA. BTW - I believe Brooks Lee will do very well at AAA.

I think you and I are probably 2 of the higher folks around here on Kirilloff. I think he's a natural born hitter and am just hoping to see a healthy season out of him so we can see what he can really do. Julien-Lewis-Kirilloff could be really fun for the next 5-10 years if they all hit their peaks.

I would disagree that there's not a spot for Lee right now. I think the DH spot is wide open. I don't think they should be rushing to get him to the majors after his solid, but far from spectacular AAA debut last year. But if he looks like one of their 9 best hitters during the spring they could definitely call him up, start him at 2B, and use the DH spot to fit their 9 best hitters in against righties and lefties. With the way they're talking him up I've actually started leaning towards them maybe hoping he tears spring apart and gives them their 9th hitter against righties and lefties that they traded away with Polanco. 

I'm so excited that we actually get to see game action starting tonight and we can start discussing actual play instead of all our hypotheticals and predictions!

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Still a ton of value for this season though 

Right, but if they can do another Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan trade it would be really tempting.

[stringer bell]

43 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not sure which arm he's had his multiple injury issues with, but if it's his throwing arm, outfield might already be a asking too much.

Kirilloff’s wrist and shoulder injuries have been to his right (non-throwing) shoulder. IIRC, he did have elbow surgery to his left elbow. His throwing arm is rated below average.