Offseason Status Update: Is This It?

[joefish]

I can't get excited about setting our goals for a half-time Buxton. Raise the floor. Find someone healthy FFS.

He did not help us as our dh last year. If he can't run in the outfield and can't dh, we need to upgrade.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, joefish said:

I can't get excited about setting our goals for a half-time Buxton. Raise the floor. Find someone healthy FFS.

He did not help us as our dh last year. If he can't run in the outfield and can't dh, we need to upgrade.

He’s played over 100 games once. He’s heading into his 10th year. He’s under contract. There is no change coming.

Couldn't hit last year because he was hurt - no legs. He shouldn’t play CF every day. He needs to DH & be an offensive contributor while healthy. Probably is DH 80 games & in OF 45 games.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I wish you were the owner and shell out the money   ...

but I'll go one better and the The twins could buy hired gun Snell  , Monty and belli ,,, cost 90 million  for the year and still  be under the salary tax cap for 2024 and ĝo for a run at the title  , 30 million each for 1 year deals for the pohlads to just to go for it , it isn't the Twins way to over spend in free agency  and I don't think signing all 3 would win us a world series  )...

I really don't like any of these three , but Montgomery  would be my pick if I had to pick , the free agent class wasn't especially strong this year and definitely are not worth the money they are seeking  ... 

I'll just go with our youth and prospects ...

We should make the playoffs again this year but again might fail to go beyond the ALDS  , but anything can happen  ...

The twins roster just doesn't feel complete yet but after spring training  I might feel differently  ...

 

No quality player is going to sign a short term deal where the Team has options to get out. If one gets hurt they are blowing in the wind in 9 months and would be damaged goods with very few teams of interest going forward. Way too much risk - stupid thing for them to do.

It’s not like they don’t have options - they (clients & Boras) are trying to optimize their return. They could make a call and be signed by Tuesday. They’re playing the game to see who steps up.

Bellinger could sign, as an example, a $23M - 4 year deal with the Cubs & probably 3 other teams anytime he chooses. He wants more $$ & more years. Same situation with Montgomery!!

Martinez is limited as a DH - Chapman had a poor last 60% of season - Snell’s demands are nuts!

[Blyleven2011]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

No quality player is going to sign a short term deal where the Team has options to get out. If one gets hurt they are blowing in the wind in 9 months and would be damaged goods with very few teams of interest going forward. Way too much risk - stupid thing for them to do.

It’s not like they don’t have options - they (clients & Boras) are trying to optimize their return. They could make a call and be signed by Tuesday. They’re playing the game to see who steps up.

Bellinger could sign, as an example, a $23M - 4 year deal with the Cubs & probably 3 other teams anytime he chooses. He wants more $$ & more years. Same situation with Montgomery!!

Martinez is limited as a DH - Chapman had a poor last 60% of season - Snell’s demands are nuts!

I totally agree , I was just playing along with fatbat ...

I agree these remaining free agents  want stupid money  and no way I would  pay it ...

No water Snell,  bellinger  , maybe Montgomery but the years and money are to high for the Twins  ...

Teams cut salary this season  and alot of them probably will go through this tv revenue thing again in 2025 or until it is all resolved , so budgets will be tight ...

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This. I have zero interest in signing another mediocre veteran to block young guys. They have plenty of those, and the back of the bench should be guys with options. It's one reason Gordon is gone, and now people want to sign an older, more expensive, guy without options?

Older? Bellinger is 28. Not exactly old. And he's never been mediocre. He's been well above average to great or horrid. But never mediocre. The reason he isn't signed yet is because nobody trusts him to not be horrid at some point over a long-term deal. A 1 year Bellinger deal would be significantly better than any realistic outcome for any of the young guys who aren't already on the 26 man roster. The chances of Martin, for example, ever putting up a 20/20 season with a 134 wRC+ while playing great defense at multiple positions is pretty much 0. That's what the "mediocre" Bellinger did last year. He's not Santana or Farmer or any of these other guys they waste 5 to 10 mil on. If they can get Bellinger as Buxton and Kirilloff insurance they absolutely should. But that feels pretty unrealistic right now.

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Bellinger in an already lefty heavy lineup doesn’t make sense, although he’s a real good player, and he would want a hefty contract, even for one year. Bringing back Taylor is more likely IMO. Either Montgomery or Snell would be a big boost to the rotation. But right now it looks like the FO is planning to shuttle relievers from St. Paul to eat up innings because of expected short starts. 

Bellinger has an OPS of .782 against lefties for his career. Was .984 last year. Simply being lefthanded doesn't automatically mean he's a bad fit. MAT's career OPS against lefties is .746. Was .914 last year. I agree it's not going to happen, but he's a better option against lefties than Taylor even though he hits left handed.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Older? Bellinger is 28. Not exactly old. And he's never been mediocre. He's been well above average to great or horrid. But never mediocre. The reason he isn't signed yet is because nobody trusts him to not be horrid at some point over a long-term deal. A 1 year Bellinger deal would be significantly better than any realistic outcome for any of the young guys who aren't already on the 26 man roster. The chances of Martin, for example, ever putting up a 20/20 season with a 134 wRC+ while playing great defense at multiple positions is pretty much 0. That's what the "mediocre" Bellinger did last year. He's not Santana or Farmer or any of these other guys they waste 5 to 10 mil on. If they can get Bellinger as Buxton and Kirilloff insurance they absolutely should. But that feels pretty unrealistic right now.

Taylor. People are mentioning Taylor. And other affordable guys. 

As for bellinger, he was terrible before last year and wants big money and lots of years. But if he'll come for three years, sure, they could do that. Pretty risky..... Given their budget constraints. 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Older? Bellinger is 28. Not exactly old. And he's never been mediocre. He's been well above average to great or horrid. But never mediocre. The reason he isn't signed yet is because nobody trusts him to not be horrid at some point over a long-term deal. A 1 year Bellinger deal would be significantly better than any realistic outcome for any of the young guys who aren't already on the 26 man roster. The chances of Martin, for example, ever putting up a 20/20 season with a 134 wRC+ while playing great defense at multiple positions is pretty much 0. That's what the "mediocre" Bellinger did last year. He's not Santana or Farmer or any of these other guys they waste 5 to 10 mil on. If they can get Bellinger as Buxton and Kirilloff insurance they absolutely should. But that feels pretty unrealistic right now.

Yeah, Willie Castro is the fallback in CF, Carlos Santana is already platooning at 1B (and he's one Kirilloff injury/IL stint away from regular starts) and Anthony DeSclafani is taking the mound every 5th day but we're worried about Snell, Montgomery, or Bellinger blocking guys? 

[Riverbrian]

On 2/17/2024 at 2:49 PM, Craig Arko said:

Is that all there is

Is that all there is?

If that's all there is my friends

Then let's keep dancing

Let's break out the booze and have a ball

If that's all there is?

Girl don't lie, just to save my feelings
Girl don't cry, and tell me nothing's wrong
Girl don't try to make up phony reasons
I'd rather leave than never believe

 

If this is it, please let me know

[arby58]

On 2/17/2024 at 8:56 PM, bjorks said:

I may have missed this, but it's funny to see our most grossly underpaid position player (Lewis) and our highest paid "5th" (DeSclafani).  

That's the baseball salary structure at play (which is part of the CBA with the players union). There is the opportunity for young impactful players to make extra money via the pre-arbitration bonus pool - Julio Rodríguez picked up an additional $1,865,349, Corbin Carroll $1,812,337, Adley Rutschman $1,798,439, etc. 

Six Twins also benefited: Ober ($432,752), Julien ($397,629), Ryan ($341,931), Lewis ($341,190), Jeffers ($300,304), and Duran ($271,789).

[arby58]

Even if this is 'all there is' (and I do think they will add a right-handed hitting outfielder who can play CF), last year most people didn't think Castro would even make the team let alone be an impactful player. There is the chance for some players to elevate themselves, even absent trades or free agent signings. Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Ober, Varland, and Wallner all did last year.

I was (pleasantly) surprised to see that ESPN in their projections, has the Twins fifth in MLB and a forecast of 88.9 wins and a  73.5% chance of making the playoffs. Quite frankly, if they win 89 games, they have a 100% chance of making the play-offs. In the write-up, they mentioned expected return to more normal form for Correa and Buxton and expected continued progression by their young talent. Sounds about right. They also say the Twins have picked up 2.2 wins with their offseason moves. Somewhat dubious on that. ESPN also projects the Twins farm system as 9th best in MLB, so there clearly is some decent talent in the pipeline, at least as they see it.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Even if this is 'all there is' (and I do think they will add a right-handed hitting outfielder who can play CF), last year most people didn't think Castro would even make the team let alone be an impactful player. There is the chance for some players to elevate themselves, even absent trades or free agent signings. Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Ober, Varland, and Wallner all did last year.

I was (pleasantly) surprised to see that ESPN in their projections, has the Twins fifth in MLB and a forecast of 88.9 wins and a  73.5% chance of making the playoffs. Quite frankly, if they win 89 games, they have a 100% chance of making the play-offs. In the write-up, they mentioned expected return to more normal form for Correa and Buxton and expected continued progression by their young talent. Sounds about right. They also say the Twins have picked up 2.2 wins with their offseason moves. Somewhat dubious on that. ESPN also projects the Twins farm system as 9th best in MLB, so there clearly is some decent talent in the pipeline, at least as they see it.

I know a lot of people don't like to use Pythagorean W-L when looking at a season, but the game is about runs scoring on offense and run suppression when on defense. The Twins scored 119 more runs than their opponents and according to Pythag should have won 93 games last year. With some regression to the mean, the Twins can be equally "good" and win more games this year and slip a bit and still come up with a better record. The Twins did well in extra-inning games, but were substandard in one and two run games, yielding only 87 wins last year. I expect better fortune this year, with an improved bullpen and more veteran players. 

Do I want to see another 30-something guy brought in to be a platoon outfielder and Buxton insurance? No, particularly if he takes away at-bats from Matt Wallner. I would be okay with bringing in a guy who plays DH versus right handed pitching and puts on a glove to give Kepler or Wallner a day off pretty often against left handed pitching. Would any of the veterans in question be accepting of being a platoon player on the short side of the platoon? I already see the veteran Santana squeezing Kirilloff out of at-bats, I don't want to see it with Wallner as well. 

The best move the Twins made at the trade deadline in 2023 was no move. Perhaps the same can happen now, leaving a spot for someone to win among the position players. The obvious candidates would be Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda and Austin Martin. 

[sorney]

TIme for Cody!!!