Starter or Reliever? Louie Varland Needs to Be Water - Caretaker Exclusive

[Parker Hageman]

While the hype and hoopla are rightfully on the native son who will enter baseball's Hall of Fame in a Minnesota Twins uniform, another St. Paul(-adjacent)-born player could play a vital role in the team’s 2024 season. It's just a matter of how.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Martial arts legend Bruce Lee has a famous quote that says people should be more like water. Water, Lee said, can be many things. Water takes the shape of whatever is required. Put it in a cup, and it's a cup. A bottle? It's a bottle. An enormous Stanley taking up a Willians Astudillo-sized space in my cabinet? It's that, too. It's formless and highly adaptable.

Louie Varland needs to be water.

"My biggest takeaway from this past season was the importance of always adapting," Varland said, shortly after finishing one of his offseason workouts. "The league adapts to you, and you need to be ready for that." 

Varland had to adapt, all right. The Twins asked him to adapt to pitching well after the start of the game. They needed an electric arm in late-inning situations. They needed someone to subdue any potential uprisings. They needed someone to hand the ball over to Jhoan Durán and give the coaching staff confidence they would still have the lead intact.

It's not always easy embracing the role of wait-and-see arm. Starters know their schedule. They have the luxury of going through their mechanical checklists with the precision of a shuttle launch, fully knowing when they have go-time. And that's just the game day experience. Between outings, starters, for the most part, know when their next appearance will be. Relievers have more mystery, and that makes it more challenging to recover and to work on things.

Cleveland reliever and fellow Minnesotan Sam Hentges said that one of his biggest obstacles upon his relocation to the late show was that he could no longer "blow it out" in the weight room during his workout routine. As a starter, he had time for his body to heal from an outing and the between-start regimen. Instead, he had to relearn how to go about his important off-field work to keep his body ready to appear multiple days in a row.

There's a plan, a cadence to everything pitchers do, and the work done on the field is just the tip of the iceberg. In addition to the all-important conditioning routines, there are side pens that pitchers rely on to hone their stuff. These can be incredibly important for young pitchers. Starting pitchers can set their watch to them. Routine is everything.

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

“Regardless of where Varland goes from here, the Twins have an electric arm capable of filling multiple roles, which is a champagne problem.”

THIS.  Exactly.  Varland appears to be a good pitcher who is young and adaptable, and all teams need more of those.  I could definitely see him as a starter this year who transitions to the bullpen come September, or if he’s not needed in the rotation, as a 7th/8th inning guy all season.  

 

[Karbo]

Good article. If the Twins want to move him to the pen (looks like a good idea) they need to find another starter to replace him, and not a Shoemaker type!

[Parfigliano]

It would be great if he could stay a starter and effectively cover 130+ innings lost by Gray and Maeda leaving.  Stats in this article say his true value is probably in a relief role.  However things break it seems like a good way for the Twins.

[Dman]

If the Twins add another starter this offseason to the five man rotation Instead of sending Varland to St. Paul they should use him in the pen at the MLB level and keep him stretched out there.  His arm is too valuable to not be pitching at the MLB level IMO.

[TopGunn#22]

Varland is what Winder has NOT (so far) turned out to be.  Varland demonstrated that when coming out of the pen, he could dial his velo up to near 100 mph.  That's a weapon.  To me, the key guy that could determine what the Twins decide to do with Varland this season is Matt Canterino.  If Canterino is healthy and dazzling in spring training, with his "stuff" he could be that 8th inning guy, and an occasional closer alongside Duran at the back end of our bullpen.

If the Twins are actually serious about Canterino remaining a SP and if they will actually let him approach 125 innings in 2024 then there is a stronger chance to see Varland as the 8th inning/alternate closer guy.  Brock Stewart was phenomenal in his limited innings last year but the jury is out on him for 2024.  Funderburk is going to have a much bigger role this year than last, and that's a good thing.  Staumont was a decent signing if the proper role could be carved out for him.

The other thing that will determine how Varland is used, at least in 2024, is what, if any, SP the Twins acquire in a trade or FA.  Are Luis Castillo or Jesus Luzardo realistic targets?  Are Mike Clevinger or Trevor Bauer or whoever is still unsigned as a 2nd tier SP even under consideration for the Twins?  It makes little sense to me to sign a tier 2 SP unless that guy is at least considered the #3 guy in the rotation with only Lopez and Ryan ahead him, and Ober, Paddack, and by extension, Varland behind him.  Only Clevinger and Bauer at least have the pedigree of past performance to merit being slotted ahead of Ober. 

But I love your analogy of Varland needing to be "water."  He must be fluid and flexible for whatever role the Twins decide to employ him.   

[gman]

Water or wine, I think he needs to come into spring training as a starter. Finding a 1 inning reliever is usual easier than acquiring a starter. Varland has the pitches to be a starter. He may start the season in 3A as Ober did last year and then come in later in April or early May, but I think once in the rotation he should be there for good. His time in the bullpen last year should help him realize his ability to get out of tough spots and close out innings.

Making trades for good relievers or #6 starters should be doable no matter the status of free agent starters.

[ashbury]

Holding his glove hand a certain way, to unlock more velocity or whatever, seems independent of whether he's starting or relieving.  I'd still like to see him start (in both senses) at St Paul, and demonstrate he can dominate AAA batters (which he did not do in 2023) for a handful of games, and then come up when a rotation opening inevitably presents itself.  Starters are too valuable.

If it looks like more of the same, at age 26, then the reliever option remains open.  Note that his 12 innings of relief in 2023 had results built on an absurdly low BABIP of .191 so don't expect the same stellar results in larger samples. (Louie's battle against Chapman in the Blue Jays postseason series was heart-pounding, and not in a good way.)

Getting anything at all out of a 15th-round draft pick remains an achievement by itself, but that's in the past and it's not greedy to want more.  Good starting is "more" than great relieving, if those indeed are our lucky choices.

[tony&rodney]

Teams are looking to fill their positions of need/ways to improve the roster. There is time and any angst within Twins Daily folks can rest easy to know that Louie Varland can be a very good starting pitcher if Falvey is unable to swing a trade for a Corbin Burnes or equivalent.

[sweetmusicviola16]

We signed Caleb Boushley, so Louie better look out.

[Parker Hageman]

30 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Holding his glove hand a certain way, to unlock more velocity or whatever, seems independent of whether he's starting or relieving...

Yes and no. 

What it tells me is that Varland's late season velocity increase/command improvement has some potential to be tied to his mechanics and not just the role. Again, the Twins are very good at getting pitchers to gain more velo through tweaks like that. He seemed to have better command of the cutter as well. The question for the Twins & Varland this offseason is whether he could be able to maintain that output over 5 innings. (IMO, he still needs to find a third pitch to make that jump and he's been working on a few things this winter so far.) 

 

[Jocko87]

7 hours ago, Parker Hageman said:

Yes and no. 

What it tells me is that Varland's late season velocity increase/command improvement has some potential to be tied to his mechanics and not just the role. Again, the Twins are very good at getting pitchers to gain more velo through tweaks like that. He seemed to have better command of the cutter as well. The question for the Twins & Varland this offseason is whether he could be able to maintain that output over 5 innings. (IMO, he still needs to find a third pitch to make that jump and he's been working on a few things this winter so far.) 

 

And it makes me wonder what he learned in the pen that can be brought back to starting. 

I've long been a fan of getting starter prospects ML innings in the pen, for the same reason i want kids to play all the sports rather than specializing on one at 12 or 13.  The muscles used are different and a stronger overall body should portend a more durable athlete once a specialty is chosen.  Learning how to let it fly in relief may or may not translate. 

I certainly want to see what he can do as a starter.  Even if he doesn't quite show that he is ready for a post season start this year, he can still make progress towards that mark.  A trade at the deadline instead of now helps this all develop.  Putting him in the pen because they trade for another starter would be disheartening because it would indicate what they feel his starter upside is.   I'd like them to keep him in AAA starting in that case.

[Boswell]

Some of the new wine turns out well, some of it will turn to vinegar.   So it goes. 

[JD-TWINS]

“…….a Champagne problem.” That says it all! If he works out as a starter, great. If not, he’s got Griffin Jax type value in the Pen. I like getting a depth arm (starter) and having Varland as a 10 start (spot starter) guy to provide some rest for the top 5 guys………seems unless he really breaks through as a starter over a number of starts, he will be in the Pen to contribute from September 15 til eliminated. An advantage of spot starts in the Show and AAA until September, is that the playoff clubs won’t have seen him firsthand much at all!