Scott Boras Forcing Wait-and-See Twins to Keep Waiting and Seeing

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Unless they continually find 3-5 rookies who can contribute it kind of needs to happen every year. You can't have a contending team with just 3 good players.

I understand dialing back spending when your team isn't good but not when it was just 2 wins away from the ALCS.

Why would they need to find 3-5 rookies every year? Do you expect the rookies to all be one and done? Without any rookies, the Twins current starting lineup is better than what 98% of the free agents could have provided. Who are you replacing? Kirilloff maybe? Kepler, Wallner? There were only a handful of upgrade options anyway.

If you're thinking about the rotation, you're in the wrong conversation, because that has always been, and likely will only ever be, meaningfully upgraded via trade.

[mnfireman]

Gray and Maeda pitched 288.1 innings at a combined ERA of 3.31 that needs to be replaced. IF Ryan can pitch 25 more innings than last season, Ober 30 more innings and Paddack can pitch 125 innings (I'm hoping he's closer to 150 IP) that covers 180 of them. IF Varland can pitch 100 more innings than last season that covers the lost innings. Headrick may be stretched out for long relief/spot starts, there's been talk about stretching out Duran (we'll see) and there are also arms waiting in AAA & AA (Canterino, SWR, Festa, Raya). There will also be non-roster ST invitees (oh dread).

Another arm would be nice, probably necessary given how common injuries are to pitchers, and may happen, but Falvey and Levine are delivering the pitching pipeline. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Any agent who can get $11 million for Gallo in 2023 and then get $5 million for him in 2024 is who I want for my son's agent.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Why would they need to find 3-5 rookies every year?

Because a team that won't spend money has to keep trading players by the time they get to their second year of arbitration.

[Jocko87]

6 hours ago, UK Twin said:

But you never cut off communication with Scott Boras. 

This right here.  Maybe a month from now he'll need a one year spot for someone that fits.  Helping him out from time to time might not get a discount for Royce but it will help him want to have creative conversations. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Because a team that won't spend money has to keep trading players by the time they get to their second year of arbitration.

And when have they done this with the exception of Arraez which was done for very good reason.  The other one that comes to mind is Berrios who most definitely was not traded because of his 2nd year arbitration cost.

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

And when have they done this with the exception of Arraez which was done for very good reason.  The other one that comes to mind is Berrios who most definitely was not traded because of his 2nd year arbitration cost.

The Twins have Polanco and Kepler on team friendly contracts and we hear constant rumors about trading them because of budget concerns. They haven't offered a long-term contract to a pitcher other than Pablo Lopez.

There is some hyperbole in my comments but they cannot expect to field a contending team on a $120M payroll unless the farm system is consistently turning out talent - at least 3 major leaguers a year.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins have Polanco and Kepler on team friendly contracts and we hear constant rumors about trading them because of budget concerns. They haven't offered a long-term contract to a pitcher other than Pablo Lopez.

There is some hyperbole in my comments but they cannot expect to field a contending team on a $120M payroll unless the farm system is consistently turning out talent - at least 3 major leaguers a year.

What does this have to do with your claim?  They extended both of these players so using them as an argument to support your claim that they trade 2nd year arbitration players because of salary is simply ridiculous.  You are also making this out to be perpetual when it's one year because of a never to be repeated problem with their TV contract.  

BTW .... Arizona's payroll last year was $119M with $18M in sunk cost to Bumgarner.  The 101 win Orioles were at $71M.  More importantly, the twins will always be at a huge revenue disadvantage.  The only way they can win at $120M or $150M is to develop prospects. 

History is crystal clear if you bother to look at how teams built successful teams with payrolls at $150M or less by today's levels.  Roughly 80% of the highest contributing players were draft or acquired before becoming established MLers.  They were successful acquiring more modest cost free agents like Nelson Cruz or last year Zach Effrin is a good example.  Trades for established players had a very small role.  Focusing on this as intently as you have would suggest you have never actually looked at how successful teams were built for under $150M.  

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

BTW .... Arizona's payroll last year was $119M with $18M in sunk cost to Bumgarner.  The 101 win Orioles were at $71M.  More importantly, the twins will always be at a huge revenue disadvantage.  The only way they can win at $120M or $150M is to develop prospects. 

Both Arizona and Baltimore won because they turned out a helluva lot of cheap talent in a short period of time. Let's see if they can sustain that or if they'll be rebuilding again shortly.

At a $150M payroll they can afford to keep some of their own talent through the first years of what would be free agency with contract extensions (Kepler, Polanco). At $100M that isn't possible (see Tampa) and at $120M it means they have to be perfect when handing out those extensions.

If it is only a 1 year hiccup then it's even more stupid. No business has to make money every single year. It's common practice for a baseball team to take a short-term loss to try to win a World Series. It shows a nearsighted focus on short term gain at the expense of building durable franchise value.

[Parfigliano]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Both Arizona and Baltimore won because they turned out a helluva lot of cheap talent in a short period of time. Let's see if they can sustain that or if they'll be rebuilding again shortly.

At a $150M payroll they can afford to keep some of their own talent through the first years of what would be free agency with contract extensions (Kepler, Polanco). At $100M that isn't possible (see Tampa) and at $120M it means they have to be perfect when handing out those extensions.

If it is only a 1 year hiccup then it's even more stupid. No business has to make money every single year. It's common practice for a baseball team to take a short-term loss to try to win a World Series. It shows a nearsighted focus on short term gain at the expense of building durable franchise value.

The Twins franchise is very valuable.  Last I saw its estimated value was around 1.5 billion.  Not bad considering the Pohlads bought them for 44 million and got taxpayers to buy them a place to play.  I bet the franchise will be worth more next year and the year after and the year after.....

[nicksaviking]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Because a team that won't spend money has to keep trading players by the time they get to their second year of arbitration.

Not that many. And if they were to trade for a controllable pitcher now, they shouldn't have to next year.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

The Twins franchise is very valuable.  Last I saw its estimated value was around 1.5 billion.  Not bad considering the Pohlads bought them for 44 million and got taxpayers to buy them a place to play.  I bet the franchise will be worth more next year and the year after and the year after.....

The lowest price franchises are worth $1.1B and they have a much less favorable home market. The Brewers are valued higher than the Twins despite having a smaller market to draw from. The Cardinals and Mariners are each worth $2.2B which tells you what a well-run mid-market franchise is worth,

[MGM4706]

Nothing to do with Boras. Only to do with the Pohlad Bank Strategy. They are focused on the money and not on winning. So even though they spent a little more and produced a good team they are back to trying to operate on the cheap and balance out Correa money. So winning has once again been put on the back burner. The Fans also are ignored in all of their balance sheet balancing!

[tony&rodney]

Uh .... back to topic ..... Scott Boras has a job. He comes to work and is good at his job. As an agent he advises and supports his clients in the manner those players seek. His influence is overstated. The owners are never forced by Boras into a corner or their teams held up because of Scott Boras. The owners all have more power than any agent.

[NotAboutWinning]

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Uh .... back to topic ..... Scott Boras has a job. He comes to work and is good at his job. As an agent he advises and supports his clients in the manner those players seek. His influence is overstated. The owners are never forced by Boras into a corner or their teams held up because of Scott Boras. The owners all have more power than any agent.

The owners only have power if they are willing to say NO. Scott Boras is very good at whipping up FOMO to the tune of 9 figures.

[tony&rodney]

22 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

The owners only have power if they are willing to say NO. Scott Boras is very good at whipping up FOMO to the tune of 9 figures.

Yes, this is correct. However, remember that the owners only say yes when they want to.