The Table Setter, Jan. 11, 2024: Surprise! A Deadline

[Matthew Trueblood]

What kind of amateur operation is MLB running, anyway? I kid. (Kind of.) An offseason deadline was quietly pushed up one day last month, so it's suddenly upon us.

Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

News continues to come more in trickle than torrent, but by today at noon, teams have to either agree with arbitration-eligible players on deals to avoid that noxious process or submit their figures for a potential hearing. At 7 PM tonight, those figures will be officially exchanged. That's what much of today will be about, and then moves should pick up starting this weekend.

Everyone Just Wants a Longer Long Weekend
With much of the country set to observe Martin Luther King Jr. Day Monday and enjoy a three-day weekend, the league and the players association agreed last month to move up the deadline for the exchange of arbitration figures from Friday to today. Presumably, at least for teams who have a decent chunk of their offseason moving and shaking done, this means a four-day weekend for some folks who have worked hard for it. Call it anything you want, but you can't call it unrelatable.

Big Twins Decisions Coming Into Focus
Why does this seemingly banal procedural deadline matter? Say you're the Twins. You're facing pretty strict financial constraints this winter, pending the resolution of the TV rights questions hanging over everything, and you have seven players eligible for arbitration. Add their projected salaries (per MLB Trade Rumors) together, and they account for $18.8 million of your payroll for the coming season. That's no chump change, given how much you have committed to Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton and the holes you still need to fill.

It's also not a real number, though--not yet. As good as MLBTR's projections typically are, it could easily be as little at $17 million or (more likely, in this particular case) as much as $20.5 million that you end up paying those seven players. A few million dollars don't go as far as they used to, in MLB, but that range of possible outcomes is not totally negligible. They can shape and alter your set of options for the balance of the offseason.

For that reason, look for the team to get deals done with just about all of these guys, and if they don't get one done (with Kyle Farmer, for instance), it might signal a greater likelihood that they'll trade that player, rather than a real willingness to go to a hearing with them.

It also matters because of how the same process shapes other teams' options. The Twins are still in contact with the Brewers about a potential Corbin Burnes trade, but both sides will want to know what Burnes is actually going to make in 2024 before talking more concretely about the secondary pieces in such a trade. Today will be busy, and the stakes are higher than you'd think.

You'll Hear Nothing and Like It
While we're all going to get clarity on some arbitration stuff 24 hours earlier than expected, no one is getting clarity any time soon on the bankruptcy of Bally Sports parent company, Diamond Sports Group. An important hearing was pushed back this week, delaying any move that might give the Twins (or Rangers, or Guardians, or any of several other teams only slightly less urgently interested in how this will all shake out) more certainty about the ways they might broadcast their games (and get paid for the rights) in 2024.

As has been the case going back two decades (to the days of the first fights between cable companies and the channels trying to mill their rights to live sports into sky-high carriage fees), all of the extremely wealthy people and entities involved will ultimately win in this staredown. They're fighting over the rightmost six or seven numbers in ledgers with nine or 10 digits before the decimal point. The losers, again, are the fans. I'm not sure there's anything we can do to change that, but we shouldn't lose sight of it.

A Few Thoughts on Specific Arbitration Cases
Farmer will garner the most eyeballs today, because if his projected salary of $6.6 million pans out, he's a bit of a luxury for a team on a budget. He's not the only name worth checking on closely, though. MLBTR only pegs Jeffers for $2.3 million, but given his surface-level numbers in 2023, I would take the over. His playing time will cap his earning power, but he has a chance to get expensive over the next couple years. Catcher is one place where the Twins farm system is shallow, and finding a legitimate medium-term prospect who could take over for Jeffers should be on their to-do list for the year.

Are you ready for Arbageddon? (Get it?) Do you think the Twins will pull the trigger on any form of a Burnes trade? Let's chop it up, as the stove heats up just in time for the cold of January to really seize us all.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Are you able to elaborate on the part where you said the Twins are still in contact with Milwaukee on a potential Corbin Burnes trade? That part piqued my interest. :)

But I didn't know about today's arbitration deadline either. Thanks!

[DJL44]

Are we going to see contract extensions for any of the younger players? Will they wait until everyone has reported to camp to see who shows up healthy first?

[DJL44]

I saw MLB rejected the partnership between Diamond Sports and Amazon that would stream games on Prime. I think MLB may have their own plan for what to do with games starting in the 2025 season when they get the rights back from the remaining teams signed to contracts with Diamond Sports. That will make the Twins TV arrangements a short-term deal that only covers 2024.

[Karbo]

I would love to see the Twins get Burnes but I don't see how they can fit him in with the current budget restraints. IMO a 1 year rental should be out of the question. I wonder if the Twins could boost attendance enough, even if they could build a true powerhouse team, to offset some of the loss of TV revenue? Would it even make a difference if they could boost there attendance by say 25-30%? I kind of doubt it.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, Karbo said:

I would love to see the Twins get Burnes but I don't see how they can fit him in with the current budget restraints. IMO a 1 year rental should be out of the question. I wonder if the Twins could boost attendance enough, even if they could build a true powerhouse team, to offset some of the loss of TV revenue? Would it even make a difference if they could boost there attendance by say 25-30%? I kind of doubt it.

They can afford him, and they could afford an extension when it comes to that. I would probably mean moving off of some combo of Polanco/Kepler/Farmer in 2024, and all by 2025, but otherwise they can afford Burnes.

[stringer bell]

I'd like some closure on a TV deal. I'll do what I have to in order to get as many games on TV (or streaming) as I can. I just want to know what to do. I'm fine if the whole thing goes to mlb.tv, especially if there are no blackouts, but I would just like to know and also know how much it will cost me.

As far as the arbitration cases go, I'll be interested in all of the numbers. Willi Castro is also an interesting case, in that he broke out last year after being non-tendered after the 2022 season. In comparing Castro and Nick Gordon, Gordon's lower salary and longer period of team control might sway the Twins toward keeping Nick. 

I've maintained all off season that a big part of Farmer's value (competent shortstop) is mitigated with having Lewis and Castro on the roster and Lee available for recall in St. Paul. If Correa were to go down for weeks or months, the Twins have someone other than Farmer there to fill the gap. To me, this makes Farmer more of a luxury.

[Fatbat]

There are many ways to rearrange a 130M budget. If a deal works out for Burnes, there will be  at least 1 to 2 almost ready pitching prospects go to Miller town along with a vet or 2 on short term deals. It may make the budget stretch to $140M but who cares other than the Pohlads. Burnes wont be a rental, a Pablo like extention will be part of the deal. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They can afford him, and they could afford an extension when it comes to that. I would probably mean moving off of some combo of Polanco/Kepler/Farmer in 2024, and all by 2025, but otherwise they can afford Burnes.

Well, for what it's worth, Burnes has less than zero interest in an extension. I mean that unless you offered him basically the Gerrit Cole deal, he's going to free agency. But yes, they can afford him.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, Matthew Trueblood said:

Well, for what it's worth, Burnes has less than zero interest in an extension. I mean that unless you offered him basically the Gerrit Cole deal, he's going to free agency. But yes, they can afford him.

That's what I figured. I wouldn't see an extension happening before the 2024 season, or possibly even during the season. But build trust and show that you are a good team to work with, and then figure it out this next summer/fall at some point. 

But yeah, I'd be getting him to help in 2024, and figure the rest out later on.

[sweetmusicviola16]

On an extension Burnes isn't signing for anything less than 35mil a year would be my best guestimate. Burnes will not be a longterm Twin, he wants top dollar. On a one year rental I don't want to pay the price. We need all of the prospects we can muster playing at minimum wage then if we are going to compete. As time passes expect the Twins to be modeled after the A's of the 2,000's and the Rays and the Guardians. Teams that were/are competitive but never had/have enough bullets to win the WS.

Edit: Sad that you can't even refer to the Guardians as the old *nd*ans anymore on here. Lets just erase history.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Edit: Sad that you can't even refer to the Guardians as the old *nd*ans anymore on here. Lets just erase history.

You can't refer to the current minor league team in Indianapolis. This site won't allow it.

[sweetmusicviola16]

51 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You can't refer to the current minor league team in Indianapolis. This site won't allow it.

Thanks. I wasn't even aware that the team was named that and that Pittsburgh has its AAA affiliate there.

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They can afford him, and they could afford an extension when it comes to that. I would probably mean moving off of some combo of Polanco/Kepler/Farmer in 2024, and all by 2025, but otherwise they can afford Burnes.

I would think, if they really wanted to do that, they would have already moved at least Farmer. This FO tends to wait on deals, but so many have already been done, the trade market must have shrunk. I would like a package deal of either Farmer or Martin with AK to get a starter that could grow into a 2 hole type, then move Julian to 1st, and Lee to 2nd, or 3rd, with Lewis to 2nd. That could give an IF of Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Julian.

[stringer bell]

Per mlbtraderumors.com, Jeffers and Thielbar have agreed to terms on contracts (Thielbar $3.225M and Jeffers $2.425M). 

[umterp23]

25 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Per mlbtraderumors.com, Jeffers and Thielbar have agreed to terms on contracts (Thielbar $3.225M and Jeffers $2.425M). 

you beat me to the punch... saw same thing

[sweetmusicviola16]

We signed Farmer through next season, 2025 is option.

That really surprises me tbh.

 

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

We signed Farmer through next season, 2025 is option.

That really surprises me tbh.

 

mlbtraderumors.com says that it is a mutual option. Almost never happens. 

[stringer bell]

All but Gordon have agreed to terms. It looks like the Twins saved a few bucks. 

[Elliot]

For quite some time, representatives of the Twins have been trying to convince me that I can afford a season ticket package, but to no avail. I have held strong on the view that it is my money and I get to decide what I can and cannot afford. 
I have made an agreement with the team that if they agree not to try to tell me what I can afford I will extend the same courtesy to them.