If Twins Trade from Offensive Depth to Get Pitching Help, They'd Better Be Right

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, miracleb said:

Tell me that in 3-4 years.......

Sounds like you expect the Twins supplemental draft pick that they get for losing Gray to be a really good player for the Twins who eventually gets traded for three prospects where 2 pan out and one of them becomes a future all star and eventually getting traded for a prospect and future hall of famer......  

[jmlease1]

23 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree with you jmlease1 100% up to the point of "we have adequate depth at 2B" because if we trade Polanco we will be forced to play Julien full-time at 2B which will compromise the integrity of our INF. IMO we are wasting our time with Julien at 2B where he could be learning to play 1B where he belongs. Polanco is a bargain, he has good numbers when he plays unnecessarily hurt but he has monster numbers when he's 100%. He's finally starting this season at 100%. So anyone don't sell him short.

Look, don't get me wrong: I love Polanco and would prefer to keep him. But he's our most tradeable asset if the front office has determined they need to a) cut payroll, and 2) add pitching via trade.

But I disagree that playing Julien at 2B compromises the infield. Julien started out wobbly defensively there but definitely improved as the season went along and he hit wonderfully. He can still work on 1B as he goes along, but he's the best bet at 2B if Polanco gets moved. Kirilloff is the one that should be at 1B. (and if Farmer sticks, he makes a nice partner for Julien as a right-handed bat, with Miranda potentially being a good partner for Kirilloff)

It's not about selling Polanco short: we're definitely better with him than without him. But if we're trading offensive depth for pitching, he's the most proven asset who also has depth behind him and still frees up payroll space.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Look, don't get me wrong: I love Polanco and would prefer to keep him. But he's our most tradeable asset if the front office has determined they need to a) cut payroll, and 2) add pitching via trade.

But I disagree that playing Julien at 2B compromises the infield. Julien started out wobbly defensively there but definitely improved as the season went along and he hit wonderfully. He can still work on 1B as he goes along, but he's the best bet at 2B if Polanco gets moved. Kirilloff is the one that should be at 1B. (and if Farmer sticks, he makes a nice partner for Julien as a right-handed bat, with Miranda potentially being a good partner for Kirilloff)

It's not about selling Polanco short: we're definitely better with him than without him. But if we're trading offensive depth for pitching, he's the most proven asset who also has depth behind him and still frees up payroll space.

I'm sorry I didn't mean to sound like you were short-selling Polanco. Our only difference of opinion is Julien's ability to play 2B, especially on a full-time basis. I love Julien's bat but that doesn't mean he should be our full-time 2Bman, By some guided positioning you can improve your metrics, & you can stretch him to be somewhat adequate but it doesn't hide the fact that he doesn't have the range & smoothness to turn the DP at 2B after all these years of trying.

Many talking heads say we need a 1Bman, which means they want to sign a Gallo-type FA slugger, We are not over budget we don't need to trade Polanco, Polanco is a bargain. It'll be very hard if not impossible to trade Polanco for anyone significant but the reason they want to trade Polanco is so they can free up $ so they can sign a this Gallo-type FA. It's much better to keep Polanco & rotate Kiriloff (when he's not hurt) at 1B & DH (I want to limit Buxton at DH) with Julien and eventually have Kiriloff rotating in the OF.

I respect your opinions & value them even if we disagree on this one point.

[Doctor Gast]

On 12/21/2023 at 6:04 PM, Blyleven2011 said:

I had never heard the Twins could have made a trade for Musgrove  , must of been  later in off season and I was in Texas for the winter  ...

That does not sit right with me if they passed on Musgrove  , he resigned with San Diego  for 20ml per season  ...

https://rumbunter.com/2021/01/05/pittsburgh-pirates-twins-trade-proposal/

Here is one site that showed that PIT had proposed a Musgrove/ Larnach trade.

[miracleb]

On 12/22/2023 at 10:28 AM, Brandon said:

Sounds like you expect the Twins supplemental draft pick that they get for losing Gray to be a really good player for the Twins who eventually gets traded for three prospects where 2 pan out and one of them becomes a future all star and eventually getting traded for a prospect and future hall of famer......  

Huh?......nice try.   This is easier than you think.  If Chase Petty ends up being an all star in the future, this trade is a disaster.  16-13 record, 300 innings in 2 years.   If Chase Petty never makes it to the major leagues......then the trade was excellent.  This isn't rocket science....LOL!  You can't determine how good a trade is today......with all of the future moving parts.  If Sonny Gray is now gone and the Twins are in the same boat as they were previously(except for giving up a top prospect,) then what did that do for the long run Twin's team?  If just getting into the playoffs is your goal....then I can see where your coming from..........

[wabene]

On 12/22/2023 at 8:54 AM, Doctor Gast said:

I agree with you jmlease1 100% up to the point of "we have adequate depth at 2B" because if we trade Polanco we will be forced to play Julien full-time at 2B which will compromise the integrity of our INF. IMO we are wasting our time with Julien at 2B where he could be learning to play 1B where he belongs. Polanco is a bargain, he has good numbers when he plays unnecessarily hurt but he has monster numbers when he's 100%. He's finally starting this season at 100%. So anyone don't sell him short.

The only guy I see moving Julien off of second is Lee and that won't be right away. I love Polo, always been one of my favs. Now is the perfect time to deal him because that is the area we have depth and he has 2 years of control, so more value. If the perception that Jorge is healthier than he's been in years, then even more value. Julien can be one of the best second baseman in the league, average or better in the field with the best bat. Even with Polo gone if Kirilloff, Lewis, Correa, Julien, Lee and even Miranda are all healthy and productive (a big if), you have a surplus. 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Huh?......nice try.   This is easier than you think.  If Chase Petty ends up being an all star in the future, this trade is a disaster.  16-13 record, 300 innings in 2 years.   If Chase Petty never makes it to the major leagues......then the trade was excellent.  This isn't rocket science....LOL!  You can determine how good a trade is today......with all of the future moving parts.  If Sonny Gray is now gone and the Twins are in the same boat as they were previously(except for giving up a top prospect,) then what did that do for the long run Twin's team?  If just getting into the playoffs is your goal....then I can see where your coming from..........

and breaking the streak and winning a playoff series. That was a good season, man. Sure winning it all would be great, but if that is all you can accept, you will forever be disappointed. Arby and JM already said much of what I was going to say about that trade. Gray was exactly what we needed and he delivered. The win loss record is irrelevant. The Twins should be commended not only for the very smart deal, but for putting in place a pitching program that got more out of Sonny than anybody else had. People say he's glad to leave here. Hardly, I'm sure he's got 70 million reasons why he appreciates the Twins. Sonny is not a fool. This is exactly the kind of deal a team like the Twins needs to close the gap with those that have all the advantages. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Huh?......nice try.   This is easier than you think.  If Chase Petty ends up being an all star in the future, this trade is a disaster.  16-13 record, 300 innings in 2 years.   If Chase Petty never makes it to the major leagues......then the trade was excellent.  This isn't rocket science....LOL!  You can determine how good a trade is today......with all of the future moving parts.  If Sonny Gray is now gone and the Twins are in the same boat as they were previously(except for giving up a top prospect,) then what did that do for the long run Twin's team?  If just getting into the playoffs is your goal....then I can see where your coming from..........

I understand your point to be that basically the addition of Gray did nothing for us in year 1 and the team was good not great in the 2nd year so the overall impact is modest.  However, when a player performs well there are a lot of fans who don't care much about the cost.  Fans love immediate gratification.  The tone here sways heavily toward the immediate like it did last year when most insisted we push in our chips because the teams was in 1st play.  Never mind it was not a very good team that had numerous injuries.

If this "investment" was measured as we would any other investment, we would measure the overall return.  Gray's return was good for 1 year.  If another investment was good over the course of 6 1/2 years it would return far more than Gray.  In real life, we chose this investment every time.  Not so for many fans when it comes to trades.  Fans would not like me running a team because I would make decisions based on the overall return.  Of course, as you pointed out.  The return on Petty might be nothing or a perineal all-star.   There is a lower minimum return with Petty.  There is also the potential for a far greater return with Petty which I believe is your point.

[miracleb]

23 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I understand your point to be that basically the addition of Gray did nothing for us in year 1 and the team was good not great in the 2nd year so the overall impact is modest.  However, when a player performs well there are a lot of fans who don't care much about the cost.  Fans love immediate gratification.  The tone here sways heavily toward the immediate like it did last year when most insisted we push in our chips because the teams was in 1st play.  Never mind it was not a very good team that had numerous injuries.

If this "investment" was measured as we would any other investment, we would measure the overall return.  Gray's return was good for 1 year.  If another investment was good over the course of 6 1/2 years it would return far more than Gray.  In real life, we chose this investment every time.  Not so for many fans when it comes to trades.  Fans would not like me running a team because I would make decisions based on the overall return.  Of course, as you pointed out.  The return on Petty might be nothing or a perineal all-star.   There is a lower minimum return with Petty.  There is also the potential for a far greater return with Petty which I believe is your point.

I think we would not want you running the team because you want an "immediate" return (which would end up sacrificing the future.)  Now if you were to bring a championship in the next two years (while sacrificing the future,)........then all is forgiven!   :-)

[jorgenswest]

On 12/23/2023 at 1:27 PM, Doctor Gast said:

https://rumbunter.com/2021/01/05/pittsburgh-pirates-twins-trade-proposal/

Here is one site that showed that PIT had proposed a Musgrove/ Larnach trade.

I read it several times and don’t see any information other than a writier suggesting a deal much like the many deals we see on the Twins Daily site. I don’t see a report of the Pirates even being engaged in talk with the Twins much less making an offer. This is the same author that suggested Priester for Kepler and Polanco. Neither was news.

Is it possible that the Larnach/Musgrove was never real?

[Doctor Gast]

19 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I read it several times and don’t see any information other than a writier suggesting a deal much like the many deals we see on the Twins Daily site. I don’t see a report of the Pirates even being engaged in talk with the Twins much less making an offer. This is the same author that suggested Priester for Kepler and Polanco. Neither was news.

Is it possible that the Larnach/Musgrove was never real?

Let's say as an example, the Twins were interested in Ethan Salas (wish they were) & maybe even made an offer with Polanco & Kepler. That would not make the news because Salas is not on the trading block. Likewise with PIT was interested (which was at least well-known around PIT) in Larnach. It only made sense that they'd make a Musgrove/ Larnach offer since they were shopping Musgrove.  That wouldn't make the news because the Twins weren't interested in Musgrove or trading Larnach.

But my point back then, was they should have been interested in Musgrove because #1  PIT had a very good eye for pitching talent, and #2 they had terrible pitching coaching that really held down their pitchers. Gerrick Cole & Tyler Glasnow are 2 that came to mind that exploded after leaving PIT. PIT was actively shopping Musgrove & that's where the Twins focus should have been (to take advantage of that opportunity) not on signing FAs, Happ & Shoemaker.

Twins have a few trading opportunities now and that's where they should focus their attention, not FA.

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Let's say as an example, the Twins were interested in Ethan Salas (wish they were) & maybe even made an offer with Polanco & Kepler. That would not make the news because Salas is not on the trading block. Likewise with PIT was interested (which was at least well-known around PIT) in Larnach. It only made sense that they'd make a Musgrove/ Larnach offer since they were shopping Musgrove.  That wouldn't make the news because the Twins weren't interested in Musgrove or trading Larnach.

But my point back then, was they should have been interested in Musgrove because #1  PIT had a very good eye for pitching talent, and #2 they had terrible pitching coaching that really held down their pitchers. Gerrick Cole & Tyler Glasnow are 2 that came to mind that exploded after leaving PIT. PIT was actively shopping Musgrove & that's where the Twins focus should have been (to take advantage of that opportunity) not on signing FAs, Happ & Shoemaker.

Twins have a few trading opportunities now and that's where they should focus their attention, not FA.

The Pirates received 5 players for Musgrove including David Bednar and Endy Rodriguez. It is just hard to believe that the Twins had an opportunity to get him for Larnach and failed to do so.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The Pirates received 5 players for Musgrove including David Bednar and Endy Rodriguez. It is just hard to believe that the Twins had an opportunity to get him for Larnach and failed to do so.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/83319

Here we see Larnach & Musgrove were close in value, here was a very fair trade

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/83229

The players who headed this trade were Head & Luchessi. Looking backward, Bednar was worth practically nothing. While Endy was a throw-in from NYM. He was worth 2.4.

PIT traded away 36,4MM in value & received 15.6MM. a deficit of 21MM, Pirates were plundered. Head & Luchessi haven't amounted to anything while PIT got lucky with Bednar & Endy.

 

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/83319

Here we see Larnach & Musgrove were close in value, here was a very fair trade

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/83229

The players who headed this trade were Head & Luchessi. Looking backward, Bednar was worth practically nothing. While Endy was a throw-in from NYM. He was worth 2.4.

PIT traded away 36,4MM in value & received 15.6MM. a deficit of 21MM, Pirates were plundered. Head & Luchessi haven't amounted to anything while PIT got lucky with Bednar & Endy.

 

Sorry, Lucchesi went to NYM so subtracting 5.8MM which PIT received to only 9.8MM makes for a greater deficit of 26.8MM which adds to SD larceny 

[Riverbrian]

On 12/25/2023 at 11:13 AM, jorgenswest said:

I read it several times and don’t see any information other than a writier suggesting a deal much like the many deals we see on the Twins Daily site. I don’t see a report of the Pirates even being engaged in talk with the Twins much less making an offer. This is the same author that suggested Priester for Kepler and Polanco. Neither was news.

Is it possible that the Larnach/Musgrove was never real?

I could cry. The overwhelming existence of this sort of thing is scary.  

If you are not careful. the media today can get you believing something that isn't true and from there it's just a short little trip to be angry about it. 

There is a great quote.

The people will believe what the media tells them they believe.
- George Orwell

It's a great quote but Orwell never said it. It was attributed to Orwell on Social Media. 

https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2022/03/fact-check-orwell-did-not-write-line-about-people-believing-what-the-media-tells-them-they-believe.html

We've reached the point where even quotes that are succinct and accurate... are still somehow not accurate on social media.