Jesus Luzardo Drawing Trade Interest

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

And see, pre-injury Ryan is better than he was in the postseason, no?

Yes, but his second half swoon wasn't just isolated to this season. He did the same thing in 2022.

And I'm not trying to crush him, if the Twins hold on to him, I'm more than happy to plug him into the rotation until he hits free agency. I just think there's a chance to upgrade.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

His strikeout stuff is better than everyone you listed here.

Where do his hard hit rate and HR rates rank? If I'm not mistaken his hard hit percentage has been getting worse year over year, and I don't expect him to be able to recover that. HRs kill you in the playoffs, and I don't trust him to not give up HRs in the playoffs. I didn't say Joe Ryan is bad. I'm glad to have him on the staff. But I think he's likelier to regress than progress from here on out.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yes, but his second half swoon wasn't just isolated to this season. He did the same thing in 2022.

And I'm not trying to crush him, if the Twins hold on to him, I'm more than happy to plug him into the rotation until he hits free agency. I just think there's a chance to upgrade.

The swoon was a LOT worse this year, but that is fair.

[rico7961]

I’m sure what the Twins FO thinks about any of the players and contract situations listed here is totally different than a lot of us fans take. 
It’s fun to state opinions and see everyone else’s

Come opening day

We will cheer for the team put on the field and have to accept the FO decisions 

GOOD or BAD

55 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I just don't see the Twins moving Jeffers right now. That's all. Julien, I can see that.

Then it would have to Wallner and Julien offered.

It’ll take a massive offer for Luzardo and Jeffers is what the Marlins REALLY need. 
I agree though that the Twins would be very hesitant to trade Jeffers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Where do his hard hit rate and HR rates rank? If I'm not mistaken his hard hit percentage has been getting worse year over year, and I don't expect him to be able to recover that. HRs kill you in the playoffs, and I don't trust him to not give up HRs in the playoffs. I didn't say Joe Ryan is bad. I'm glad to have him on the staff. But I think he's likelier to regress than progress from here on out.

So I started digging into the numbers a bit, and I got distracted. His 2nd half of 2023 was really bad, but his first half and his 2022 were about league average, even with his 2nd half of 2022, at least in terms of the homerun rate and the hard hit rates. 

I'll try to pull up numbers later tonight or tomorrow. Stupid work getting in the way of fun :)

[Cory Engelhardt]

Ok, so Joe Ryan numbers I can pull. I HOPE I get this right :)

Hard hit percentage

2021 = 29.2

2022 = 30.6

2023 = 32.6 so you are right, this has gone up each season. But he is still MUCH lower than either Gilbert or Kirby in this regard. See below.

 

Homerun rate, which is that homerun percentage of flyballs?

2021` = 11.8

2022 = 9.5

2023 14.9

The 2023 number is crazy. Through June he was at 10.4 percent, and July onward he was 21.2%^ Get him back to the 10.4 percent, and that is a solid number. 

 

For comparisons, Logan Gilbert had this hard hit percentage

2021 = 44.6

2022 = 45.6

2023 = 44.6 

Homerun rate for him

2021 = 10.9

2022 = 9.2

2023 = 13.3

 

George Kirby Hard hit rate

2022 = 38.0

2023 = 40.9

 

Homerun rate

2022 = 9.0

2023 = 10.7

 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This article makes me think Lopez would very much be in favor of a reunion.

 

https://www.fishstripes.com/2023/4/5/23671102/pablo-lopez-jesus-luzardo-miami-reunion

Thanks Cory! It's one more great incentive to reach out to MIA for Luzardo because of the comradery with Lopez

 

[jorgenswest]

The third year of control is very expensive as it combines a lower Arb salary to go with the projected level of performance. I did some math on the surplus value of that third year in a different thread but it is equivalent to about 40% of his value. Essentially that third year of control for Luzardo is equivalent to the value of Jeffers. Is one year of Luzardo worth Jeffers?

I think they are better off seeking pitchers with one or two years of control and then either extend them or take the comp pick.

[MGX]

I like Luzardo a little, but hope the Twins aren't willing to trade what is being mentioned in this thread. I don't see what suggests he'll be better than Joe Ryan...

Ryan - 335 IP - 1.109 WHIP - 4.05 ERA - 38.1% Hard hit rate - 4.1% HR rate

Luzardo - 445 IP - 1,253 WHIP - 4,18 ERA - 39% Hard hit rate - 3.3% HR rate

If someone like this costs us our starting 2b & C then I hope the Twins look elsewhere. Where would the Twins have been without the contributions of Jeffers & Julien last year? We saw that in the 1st half last year with Gray pitching like a Cy Young winner & we were still a game under .500 at the end of June. I want the Twins to add the best SP they can, but we need offense too. That's why I wish they were involved in the FA market, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen. 

[BiggestRoccoFan]

If we got Luzardo it would cost us Brooks Lee plain and simple. Luzardo is a top of the rotation arm and is 23/24 and under team control for several years. He would slot in perfectly with Pablo.

You have to give up something to get something period. Polanco is not going to land you Luzardo.

I know Lee is a good prospect but we honestly don't really have a place for him. The Marlins need a SS. 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

He is 26, and I would absolutely trade Lee to get Luzardo

[JD-TWINS]

On 12/15/2023 at 2:48 PM, nicksaviking said:

How off am I? Ryan/Ober + Kepler + Vazquez and eat half his salary (as noted, they need catching) + mid level prospect for Luzardo?

Then save Polanco + Lee + Festa for one of the Mariners young pitchers.

Assuming Vazquez's remaining salary and Luzardo's arb salary are in the same ballpark, the Twins would have 35-40M left in salary to get a new backup catcher and fill in the offense in which ever way they see fit.

They don’t want to spend money in FLA.

I don’t see Kepler as a reasonable piece due to his cost & potential to end up hitting .225 for them.

I like Vazquez in Miami to fill a need & Twins pay for one of the 2 years - give them $10M in cash considerations………..they need a CF so either Martin or E. Rodriguez …………..Festa as well, as the last piece.

Solution at catcher with Vazquez - Rodriguez is their CF of the future - maybe include Gordon to help add depth at 2B - SS & CF in short term - Festa to supplement the pitching.

Seems that these 4 guys help fill holes they have and they are controllable pieces for their club.

I’d trade Julien if needed but he doesn’t seem to fit their defensive needs.

LUZARDO in return to the Twins.

I don’t like moving Lee or Jenkins…..essentially anything else in Farm System is an option.

Gordon hit .272 with 28 doubles in 405 AB’s in ‘22 when he last played with Arraez…….I would think there would be some mild respect there?

Certainly, if they want Kepler or Polanco, we should be open to moving them as well.

[nclahammer]

I can't see the Twins trading Ryan or Ober.  Starting pitchers don't grow on trees, injuries happen, and you've got to have pitching depth.   I'd rather move a prospect like Lee or Rodriguez, along with maybe Larnach, and some other pieces that are not starting pitchers.

[TopGunn#22]

The Twins trade Jeffers and Julien for a value of 63.0.  Luzardo is valued at 63.3 so the trade is essentially even.  I think that's too steep, even if it means adding a talented young LH starting pitcher to our rotation.  Braxton Garrett is a little less expensive, mid 50's for a value.  

JD Twins, the Marlins don't need a CF because they moved Jazz Chisholm there last season when they acquired Arraez.  Then they discovered that Arraez wasn't a very good 2B so they moved him to 1B and left Jazz in CF.  That's why they've been interested in Polanco.  They would probably still be interested in Emm-Rod though as a possible corner OF.

I think the Twins need 2 SP's for their rotation.  Paddack will be limited and while I'm hoping for continued improvement from Ryan, Ober and Varland I would want the depth available to adjust.  One pitcher can come via a trade.  The other needs to come from FA.  The free agent gives the Twins a veteran with a track record who could #2 or #3.  The trade should fill the rotation out with someone who could #3-#5. 

Here's a trade I posted to BBTV that nets the Twins Trevor Rogers:

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Trevor Rogers	26	Majors	SP		Low	3	32.7	7.5	25.2	20.2	25.2	30.3

Total Value:

25.2

Marlins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Griffin Jax	29	Majors	RP		Medium	4	32.1	17.8	14.4	11.5	14.4	17.2
Jorge Polanco	30	Majors	2B		Low	2	31.9	22.5	9.4	7.6	9.4	11.3
Christian Vazquez	33	Majors	C		Low	2	8.9	20	-11.1	-13.3	-11.1	-8.8
Cash											10

Total Value:

22.70

 We give the Marlins pieces they need:  A catcher, a 2B and a solid bullpen piece plus cash to offset the contracts of Vasquez and Polanco.  We add a 26 year old pitcher who was very promising a couple of years ago but has been dogged by injuries the last two seasons.  He's our #3 or #4.  We also shed $20 million in payroll.  That opens up the possibility of adding a FA SP who would be our #2.  Our rotation is:  Lopez/FA/Ryan/Rogers/Ober/Paddack (6 guys).  Varland moves to the pen for 2024 replacing Jax.  Camargo is elevated to #2 catcher.  

It's a risk if Rogers was just a flash in the pan.  It's a HR if Rogers regains his 2021 form.  He's a LH starting pitcher who would be our #2 if he's 2021 vintage.  Lopez/Rogers/FA/Ryan/Ober/Paddack.  Varland locking down games with Duran, Funderburk, Stewart and maybe even Canterino.  Young lineup intact.  Assuming the FA pitcher we sign is for 3-5 years and you have your rotation set for quite awhile.  Varland could always move back into the rotation in 2025 depending on how things play out.  Festa or Raya could move up, allowing us to trade from a position of strength in our rotation.  That kind of value could bring back something GOOD.  

 

 

[SteveLV]

If they need 2B help, the Twins should send Polo and some cash to offset his modest salary.

They might prefer Julien, and I would trade Julien in a package for Luzardo.

Something along the lines of Polanco, cash, ERod, Keaschall and Hall for Luzardo and Meyer.

Marlins add tons of offense and young, cheap prospects;  Twins add pitching.

[JD-TWINS]

34 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The Twins trade Jeffers and Julien for a value of 63.0.  Luzardo is valued at 63.3 so the trade is essentially even.  I think that's too steep, even if it means adding a talented young LH starting pitcher to our rotation.  Braxton Garrett is a little less expensive, mid 50's for a value.  

JD Twins, the Marlins don't need a CF because they moved Jazz Chisholm there last season when they acquired Arraez.  Then they discovered that Arraez wasn't a very good 2B so they moved him to 1B and left Jazz in CF.  That's why they've been interested in Polanco.  They would probably still be interested in Emm-Rod though as a possible corner OF.

I think the Twins need 2 SP's for their rotation.  Paddack will be limited and while I'm hoping for continued improvement from Ryan, Ober and Varland I would want the depth available to adjust.  One pitcher can come via a trade.  The other needs to come from FA.  The free agent gives the Twins a veteran with a track record who could #2 or #3.  The trade should fill the rotation out with someone who could #3-#5. 

Here's a trade I posted to BBTV that nets the Twins Trevor Rogers:

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Trevor Rogers	26	Majors	SP		Low	3	32.7	7.5	25.2	20.2	25.2	30.3

Total Value:

25.2

Marlins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Griffin Jax	29	Majors	RP		Medium	4	32.1	17.8	14.4	11.5	14.4	17.2
Jorge Polanco	30	Majors	2B		Low	2	31.9	22.5	9.4	7.6	9.4	11.3
Christian Vazquez	33	Majors	C		Low	2	8.9	20	-11.1	-13.3	-11.1	-8.8
Cash											10

Total Value:

22.70

 We give the Marlins pieces they need:  A catcher, a 2B and a solid bullpen piece plus cash to offset the contracts of Vasquez and Polanco.  We add a 26 year old pitcher who was very promising a couple of years ago but has been dogged by injuries the last two seasons.  He's our #3 or #4.  We also shed $20 million in payroll.  That opens up the possibility of adding a FA SP who would be our #2.  Our rotation is:  Lopez/FA/Ryan/Rogers/Ober/Paddack (6 guys).  Varland moves to the pen for 2024 replacing Jax.  Camargo is elevated to #2 catcher.  

It's a risk if Rogers was just a flash in the pan.  It's a HR if Rogers regains his 2021 form.  He's a LH starting pitcher who would be our #2 if he's 2021 vintage.  Lopez/Rogers/FA/Ryan/Ober/Paddack.  Varland locking down games with Duran, Funderburk, Stewart and maybe even Canterino.  Young lineup intact.  Assuming the FA pitcher we sign is for 3-5 years and you have your rotation set for quite awhile.  Varland could always move back into the rotation in 2025 depending on how things play out.  Festa or Raya could move up, allowing us to trade from a position of strength in our rotation.  That kind of value could bring back something GOOD.  

 

 

It seemed to me that Chisholm to CF wasn’t well received & that he really wanted to be back in the infield - also, sounded like he excelled in CF after a couple months of growing pains.m, so who knows?

Rodriguez can find a home somewhere in their OF as you state. I’d then move him and Julien and that’s it for Luzardo. If needed, Vazquez and less $$ to supplement his salary. Maybe we give them $5M total for the 2 remaining years.

Losing Julien would be felt in our depth but between Lewis - Farmer - Martin - Lee we could cover 2B & 3B (Miranda at 3B some if he hits)……could even retain Polanco if necessary.

If they’ll take on Polanco’s contract and we throw in $5M/year against Vazquez cost - OK. We keep Julien & still move Rodriguez & Winder…….this seems  reasonable.

I’m still targeting Luzardo if at all possible.

FA signing of a pitcher seems like a big stretch!

We move guys for Roger’s or Luzardo we’re in great shape.

…………………

Another move is to find a home for Vazquez & assume it only saves Twins $5M/yr. Move Polanco for $10.5M. $121 current total as of today Payroll Total, less the two veteran trades and we’re at $105M…….sign the FA you were considering above - J. Montgomery for $26M for 5 years and the Payroll Total is $131M and a 15% reduction from 2023! Rotation is set - great depth for Infield intact - Bullpen is set - OF support is coming with Martin & Rodriguez evolving.

[BiggestRoccoFan]

On 12/16/2023 at 9:17 PM, JD-TWINS said:

They don’t want to spend money in FLA.

I don’t see Kepler as a reasonable piece due to his cost & potential to end up hitting .225 for them.

I like Vazquez in Miami to fill a need & Twins pay for one of the 2 years - give them $10M in cash considerations………..they need a CF so either Martin or E. Rodriguez …………..Festa as well, as the last piece.

Solution at catcher with Vazquez - Rodriguez is their CF of the future - maybe include Gordon to help add depth at 2B - SS & CF in short term - Festa to supplement the pitching.

Seems that these 4 guys help fill holes they have and they are controllable pieces for their club.

I’d trade Julien if needed but he doesn’t seem to fit their defensive needs.

LUZARDO in return to the Twins.

I don’t like moving Lee or Jenkins…..essentially anything else in Farm System is an option.

Gordon hit .272 with 28 doubles in 405 AB’s in ‘22 when he last played with Arraez…….I would think there would be some mild respect there?

Certainly, if they want Kepler or Polanco, we should be open to moving them as well.

You are not going to get Luzardo without Lee or Jenkins being included in a trade.

If the Twins won't include either one of those in a potential deal then I hang up the phone if I am the Marlins.

[BiggestRoccoFan]

On 12/15/2023 at 1:23 PM, rico7961 said:

It might take Jeffers and Julien for the Marlins to maybe consider. They need a C bad and Julien would be a fit also

Is this to much to give up for Luzardo?

Too much?

Try not enough.

[BiggestRoccoFan]

On 12/15/2023 at 2:03 PM, rico7961 said:

 

If Miami trades Luzardo the names Lewis, Lee, and Jeffers are gonna be brought up.

Not Kepler or Vázquez. 
They won’t even consider taking on any unnecessary salary 

Finally someone who gets it!

I keep reading all of these deals Twins fans propose but you are not getting Luzardo without Lewis or Lee being involved.

You have to give up something to get something people.

Lee is the one I would part with,

Do I want to trade Lee?

No but you have to give up something to get something.

 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, BiggestRoccoFan said:

You are not going to get Luzardo without Lee or Jenkins being included in a trade.

If the Twins won't include either one of those in a potential deal then I hang up the phone if I am the Marlins.

Not sure other organizations think a guy that was top 5 OBP in the game in ‘23 (Julien) along with E. Rodríguez is not a satisfactory return? Toss in Gordon as a depth piece that’s cheap & an arm like Sands/Winder to eat some bullpen innings. They seem to be in a win soon mode & Jenkins is at least a ‘26 arrival on a fast track.

[MGX]

1 hour ago, BiggestRoccoFan said:

Too much?

Try not enough.

There is no way I'd trade Julien & Jeffers for Luzardo. If that is the ask then I hope the Twins move on.

[MGX]

2 hours ago, BiggestRoccoFan said:

You are not going to get Luzardo without Lee or Jenkins being included in a trade.

If the Twins won't include either one of those in a potential deal then I hang up the phone if I am the Marlins.

So they hang up the phone, then move on. It's not like Luzardo is a must have for the Twins. 

[laloesch]

4 hours ago, BiggestRoccoFan said:

You are not going to get Luzardo without Lee or Jenkins being included in a trade.

If the Twins won't include either one of those in a potential deal then I hang up the phone if I am the Marlins.

I have to agree here.  If I was the Marlins I'd ask for Jeffers plus one of two prospects (Lee or Jenkins) + Varland.  

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, BiggestRoccoFan said:

Too much?

Try not enough.

 

8 minutes ago, laloesch said:

I have to agree here.  If I was the Marlins I'd ask for Jeffers plus one of two prospects (Lee or Jenkins) + Varland.  

Aren't the reports that the Marlins were willing to trade him to KC for Pasquantino? How valuable do you think Pasquantino is? Would you trade Jeffers, Lee or Jenkins, and Varland for him?

[BiggestRoccoFan]

On 12/18/2023 at 11:54 AM, MGX said:

There is no way I'd trade Julien & Jeffers for Luzardo. If that is the ask then I hope the Twins move on.

Well then thank goodness you are not our GM.