Byron Buxton’s Health is the Twins’ Biggest Offseason Key

[TopGunn#22]

The fact is, when you have a player with the physical skills like Buxton who is hurt ALL THE TIME you are going to find yourself on this endless loop of discussion.  It's unavoidable.  As a guy who likes to come to TD, I don't mind it.  It's like going on The Daily Norseman and having endless conversations about Kirk Cousins.  It comes with the territory. 

"WHEN HE'S HEALTHY..."  That pretty much says it all.  It's been correctly pointed out how "blah" his overall numbers are career wise.  It's been correctly pointed out how "good" his numbers and impact are when he's "healthy."  There is no denying that a HEALTHY Byron Buxton would be fantastic for the Twins in 2024. 

However, it has also been correctly pointed out that players like Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Miranda, and others are probably more important to the Twins in 2024.  Buxton is a Wildcard.  Anything we get from him should be considered a bonus.  He should not be prominent in any of their plans.  To fall into the never-ending trap of EXPECTING him to provide anything is refusing to learn from history and to continue to make the same mistake over and over again.  It should get someone fired.  It has also been correctly pointed out how many guys we played who were injured last year.  That's gotta stop.  

This is why I've advocated going after Tyler O'Neill in a trade with the Cardinals.  He gives you Gold Glove defense in LF and a power bat in your lineup capable of stealing 15-30 bases (provided Rocco lets him run).  When Buxton gets hurt (and he will, the only thing in question will be how severely) O'Neill could slide to CF if needed.  I think the "plan" should be to give Castro the full time job in CF once the inevitable injury happens.  Many years ago, the Twins traded for Cesar Tovar from the Reds.  In 1967 and 1968 he played EVERYWHERE.  By 1969 they decided he was good enough to be the fulltime LF and he also played a lot of CF in 1970 & 1971.  I think Castro has earned the opportunity to be a fulltime player until he plays his way out of it.      

[TopGunn#22]

The only baseball player I can think of who actually DID get healthier in his older years was Paul Molitor.  But he was almost exclusively a DH once that happened.  Molitor was a supremely gifted hitter.  Buxton is not in his class and he never will be.  For Buxton to approach the WAR numbers to justify his salary, he has to play in the field.  If it's purely offense with Buxton he may get to break even or a little higher in WAR.  His defense combined with his hitting is when he approaches a really GOOD WAR.  

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, DaveW44 said:

Not sure a healthy Buxton is anything special anymore. Might just be a good field no hit outfielder. 

17 HR & 17 doubles in ‘23 with bad leg in 86 games………..25 HR & 25 doubles is a decent production for a guy in 120 games……if he’s at all better after surgery, this seems very attainable.

Maybe not special but a real contributor and not a hole in the line-up, IMO.

Honestly, I think his days as being viewed as an elite/very good CF are gone………he may only play 30-40 games there to try & maintain health.

[JD-TWINS]

Hoping Martin has a decent Spring & then a better April/May……..with Castro playing CF principally in the first two months, we’ll need help there by summer…….a little Buxton mixed in once or twice per week would be a really nice occurrence!

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, ValleySpringsFan said:

OK, the knee surgery was a success and rehab is going great. My worry is less about the knees and more about between the ears. Will Buxton be able to play with confidence? Swing freely at the plate and run freely in the field? Or will he be focused on not getting injured again? Really pulling for the guy to figure it out this season, both for the Twins sake and his own.

His problem is he has no quit in him - he’s fragile - but with a reckless abandon mentality. I don’t think he has the ability to be reluctant after injury or we would have picked up on it over the past 9 years.

I for one hope he is more cautious in CF & on the bases……..there’s no slowing a player down in the batter’s box………would like to see him available & effective for October!

[Jeff K]

19 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Since we have learned that Buxton's bat doesn't really work if he's the full-time DH, plus it clogs up the offensive side of the lineup in a big way, Buxton in CF is the best and really only option.  I say play him in CF (with reasonable days off) until he can't do that, and then put him on the IL until he recovers enough to do it again.  That is how he will be most valuable to the Twins and likely at his most productive level.  On those days and during those periods of time when he is unavailable, some combination of Castro and Martin can take over CF.  I don't know that I would go so far as to also trade Kepler, but it isn't a crazy idea.  Save the money that would be spent on another outside option for CF and use it for another starting pitcher, whether through trade or free agency.

We also need to get past the notion that his salary is breaking the team.  If he doesn't play a lot, it's $15M, which is a lot to you and me but not the salary of a superstar player.  If he plays a lot and produces a lot, he will be paid like a superstar and the Twins will be happy to do it.  When he isn't playing well (or at all), we get frustrated by the contract, but in retrospect it was a pretty smart play by the front office and probably worth the chance.  As has been said, even 60% Buxton is a pretty good player.  Last year, unfortunately, I don't think we really got that. 

 

Well said.  CF or DL.  Nothing else matters.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I for one hope he is more cautious in CF & on the bases

I hope he works on his baserunning technique, more so than simply being cautious.  I don't think I've ever seen such awful slides from an otherwise talented athlete, as he has showcased for us from time to time, some of which looked like a miracle that they didn't result in torn structures of one type or another.

Can't speak to similar concerns about how he patrols the outfield grass, but there might be a few things likewise that court trouble, I'm not gifted enough to spot subtleties like some of the blatant basepath stuff.

[GV14218]

“the Twins have played more games (686) without Buxton than with him (670) since he made his debut.”  He can be a difference-making player when available.  But designing a roster around an enormous question mark is a huge challenge.  Will Buxton play 40 games this season, or maybe 90?  In which months?  Hurt early in the season this time, or later?  
 

So Twins FO will need to hold ready an untested prospect for CF, or spend for a quality backup (as in 2023).  So while Buxton can earn some of his $15 million salary while playing, that’s partly negated by any spend for the quality backup player required.  What a mess.  

[RpR]

Sign Taylor and alternate them as needed.

[Hubie29]

23 hours ago, DaveW44 said:

Not sure a healthy Buxton is anything special anymore. Might just be a good field no hit outfielder. 

I agree.  He is another all or nothing hitter with a career 30% strike out rate.  All the talk about Buxton is getting redundant and frankly over hyped.  Very "not clutch".  I would sacrifice a "little" defense for more contact and awareness at the plate. 

[DocBauer]

Buxton's career OPS is .768. Good, solid, productive. 

Buxton's 4yr OPS from 2019-2022, ages 25-28yo, a prime 4 year run, was .877!

Folks, that's a DIFFERENCE MAKER, even on a limited basis of availability!

I continue to state, an object to those who disagree, that IF AND WHEN Buxton's physical well being dictates he becomes a DH is NOT based on it not working in 2023. Despite TRYING to play and produce, he was a physical mess. And he probably should have been shut down earlier than he was. But when you look at what Buck has done while playing 75-90% healthy at times, if he could make the mental adjustment to being a DH one of these days...as others have...he might be great in that role. Or maybe not. But just because it didn't happen, while seriously injured, in pain, etc, in 2023 doesn't mean he/it should be discounted down the road.

But foe the immediate future, he's already better now than he was this time last season. If he can give 80 games in CF, and another couple dozen at DH, it is a huge win for him, as well as the Twins. 

That's what I'm hoping for, 80 games, another couple dozen at DH, and the remainder of his season are some  rest days and a short IL stint or two. If he can just do that for the next 3-4yrs, things look cherry!

If he can't,  then things change. But we aren't there yet.

Hope and optimism are one thing, blind faith is different. I DO believe the FO should be viewing 2024 as gravy for anything Buxton can provide. What I am unsure of these days, is to what degree they look for depth at CF. 

I'm fine with Castro there once in a while. I've become a real optimist as to Martin as an option, but how soon does the FO believe he's ready? I actually...surprise!...like unreserved  Helman as a potential OF/utility option over Gordon as a potential roster piece over Gordon. Trades might change things, but I'm not sure where Gordon fits any longer. The often discussed Keirsey is about 4th on my list for potential help in 2024.

There are some trade options with the Cardinals and Brewers that might be cheap, and realistic for a 4th OF, legitimate CF option that I find interesting. 

I really liked the idea of adding Kiermaier as that 4th OF, or maybe bringing back Taylor. But with any hope tied to Buxton, some interesting guys on hand, and potentially some budget constraints, can they afford the FA route?

I like Kiermaier a lot on a 1yr, and I might go 2yrs if the numbers make sense. (More the 1st year as enticement, maybe a player option for the second). I'm just not certain any longer that the Twins go DEEP for a CF until they add a rotation arm, and THEN examine the idea of what's the better add, a RH bat, or CF option. 

The speculation is maddening more than most seasons as there are so many moving parts between FA and trades, and who might or might not move. And I don't think we can accurately project ANYTHING until we see the FIRST MOVE, which will undoubtedly be a rotation arm.

[DocBauer]

Buxton's career OPS is .768. Good, solid, productive. 

Buxton's 4yr OPS from 2019-2022, ages 25-28yo, a prime 4 year run, was .877!

Folks, that's a DIFFERENCE MAKER, even on a limited basis of availability!

I continue to state, an object to those who disagree, that IF AND WHEN Buxton's physical well being dictates he becomes a DH is NOT based on it not working in 2023. Despite TRYING to play and produce, he was a physical mess. And he probably should have been shut down earlier than he was. But when you look at what Buck has done while playing 75-90% healthy at times, if he could make the mental adjustment to being a DH one of these days...as others have...he might be great in that role. Or maybe not. But just because it didn't happen, while seriously injured, in pain, etc, in 2023 doesn't mean he/it should be discounted down the road.

But foe the immediate future, he's already better now than he was this time last season. If he can give 80 games in CF, and another couple dozen at DH, it is a huge win for him, as well as the Twins. 

That's what I'm hoping for, 80 games, another couple dozen at DH, and the remainder of his season are some  rest days and a short IL stint or two. If he can just do that for the next 3-4yrs, things look cherry!

If he can't,  then things change. But we aren't there yet.

Hope and optimism are one thing, blind faith is different. I DO believe the FO should be viewing 2024 as gravy for anything Buxton can provide. What I am unsure of these days, is to what degree they look for depth at CF. 

I'm fine with Castro there once in a while. I've become a real optimist as to Martin as an option, but how soon does the FO believe he's ready? I actually...surprise!...like unreserved  Helman as a potential OF/utility option over Gordon as a potential roster piece over Gordon. Trades might change things, but I'm not sure where Gordon fits any longer. The often discussed Keirsey is about 4th on my list for potential help in 2024.

There are some trade options with the Cardinals and Brewers that might be cheap, and realistic for a 4th OF, legitimate CF option that I find interesting. 

I really liked the idea of adding Kiermaier as that 4th OF, or maybe bringing back Taylor. But with any hope tied to Buxton, some interesting guys on hand, and potentially some budget constraints, can they afford the FA route?

I like Kiermaier a lot on a 1yr, and I might go 2yrs if the numbers make sense. (More the 1st year as enticement, maybe a player option for the second). I'm just not certain any longer that the Twins go DEEP for a CF until they add a rotation arm, and THEN examine the idea of what's the better add, a RH bat, or CF option. 

The speculation is maddening more than most seasons as there are so many moving parts between FA and trades, and who might or might not move. And I don't think we can accurately project ANYTHING until we see the FIRST MOVE, which will undoubtedly be a rotation arm.

[jkcarew]

“The key to the Twins offseason is Buxton’s Health”

Really? For the sixth year in a row that’s the key?? Just cross our fingers and hope he becomes good offensively over the coarse of a full season and also available over a full season? Not one, but TWO things he’s almost never done? 
 

When, if ever, do we acknowledge he’s no longer the best or most valuable player on the team? The team has been better with him in the past…but that’s the past…they certainly weren’t better with him last year. And it makes zero sense to wish and hope that that’s going to reverse coarse in a significant and lasting way as the physical issues pile up and he heads deeper into his 30’s.
 

Let’s find some starting pitching. A bat, and a new center fielder. Buxton will find plenty of playing time if available. But, if the success of 2024 is riding on his performance and availability, let’s fire the FO now. I refuse to accept Buxton’s issues being a source for coulda/shoulda nonsense for yet another season. I might be a fool, but I’m not THAT much of a fool.

[ashbury]

Key is just the wrong word.  Wildcard might fit the situation better.  If by some unlikely miracle Buxton has a full season of what he showed in pieces 2019-2022, he could be awesome. That's a wildcard for planning purposes.

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I really liked the idea of adding Kiermaier as that 4th OF, or maybe bringing back Taylor. But with any hope tied to Buxton, some interesting guys on hand, and potentially some budget constraints, can they afford the FA route?

I like Kiermaier a lot on a 1yr, and I might go 2yrs if the numbers make sense. (More the 1st year as enticement, maybe a player option for the second). I'm just not certain any longer that the Twins go DEEP for a CF until they add a rotation arm, and THEN examine the idea of what's the better add, a RH bat, or CF option. 

The speculation is maddening more than most seasons as there are so many moving parts between FA and trades, and who might or might not move. And I don't think we can accurately project ANYTHING until we see the FIRST MOVE, which will undoubtedly be a rotation arm.

I liked the way you summed this up Doc.  Pitching should be the first priority.  How that goes down will dictate what they have to spend elsewhere.  It makes a big difference if they trade for a guy on a prearb contract or Tyler Glasnow.  I don't think Glasnow is going to happen but the point remains the same.

I don't see Kiermeir signing as a 4th OFer.  He is going to sign where he continues to be a primary player.  If they really believe Buxton's knee will be fine, I could see Harrison Bader.  Great late inning defensive substitution and he has a career .821 OPS against LHP  so he could start against LHP or pinch hit late in games.  He will be much more affordable.