Twins to reduce payroll

[tony&rodney]

Via MLBTradeRumors, the Twins will reset their payroll to former levels. The best guesses are $125-140 million.

We can subtract the idea of Juan Soto, which was a 2% thought and likely subtract any trades for Corbin Burnes as well.

This makes perfect sense. The blueprints that used $150 million are all in the trash bin now.

[Brandon]

Here is the link to the article.  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/twins-planning-to-reduce-payroll.html  

I guess if the Twins want a starting pitcher, they will need to trade for one yet again.  also, I am sure one of Kepler or Polanco is on the trade block as well.  Also Gordon and Alcala will be kept due to price.  Farmer is out.  

Well off to work on the budget tool to figure this out.  

[Mike Sixel]

Seems like this is bigger news than this part of the forum. This makes me think Polanco is traded..... But maybe not. They love depth

[Jocko87]

This is not unexpected and not really news when you parse the statement.  We can be pretty sure they were at least $11m over comfort level with Gallo onboard prior to Correa plus the Vazquez money. 

The proper way to look at this is that they went wading in deeper waters to get Correa (twice) and are coming back to level.  Without the Correa deal they would have been down YOY this year.  Maybe they throw more money around but by that time of the year there wasn't much to spend on.  I don't see them as low as $125m but 135-140m is reasonable. 

2021 at $120m jumped to $149m is 2022 with Correa surprise deal so its been two years well over "budget".  The floor has been raised quite a bit.  As long as it doesn't go all the way back down I'll be fine.  If it was the rebuild part of the cycle it might be different.  The way I read it, they are $40-45m overspend on salaries in the last two years.  Now they are pulling back conveniently timed with when the kids are ready.  It will all work out fine.

It does tip their hand a bit they we may see some youth sooner but everyone wanted that anyway, right?

[Doctor Gast]

I like Kepler but Wallner is starting to establish himself as an OFer. If we get a good deal on Kepler, he could be gone. If FO is deperate he still might be gone. Although we have abundance of INFers, we don't have abundance of adequate INFers especially if Farmer & Solano are traded away. Polanco shouldn't be at 3B & Julien shouldn't play 2B. So we desparately still need Polanco to man 2B. You might get Julien get better at fielding the ball & even turn the DP but range you either have itor you don't, Julien doesn't. If FO came to that conclusion right away & play him at his natural position1B from the beginning, he would have broke camp with the team this last season & we would have enjoyed Julien presence from the beginning. Yet FO is still reluctant to play Julien at 1B, at 1B Julien is inexpendable, at 2B IMO he is very expendable.

[FlyingFinn]

28 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I like Kepler but Wallner is starting to establish himself as an OFer. If we get a good deal on Kepler, he could be gone.

The Yankees are looking for two OF's.

[Doctor Gast]

1 minute ago, FlyingFinn said:

The Yankees are looking for two OF's.

The Yankee's were interested in Kepler last year but didn't want to give anything for him. Maybe this year, but personally I'd hate to see him go to NYY.

[Vanimal46]

Not surprising, but still disappointing nonetheless. 

[chpettit19]

Absolutely brutal bucket of cold water thrown on the fire of fan enthusiasm they were finally building after some playoff success. It's not my money so it's easy for me to say this, but I will never understand the business decision of finally getting momentum and then not investing 15 mil into your product for a year to continue to build excitement moving forward when you're a multi-billionaire and 15 mil is a rounding error for you.

They're going to spin it as a youth movement, and I know many of you are excited for that, but a team that's truly trying to win a World Series at a more than reasonable cost takes advantage of this youth movement by adding topline talent to their roster while they have so many cheap players. See current World Series champions Texas Rangers. I'm not even asking for the Twins to go that bonkers, but just maintaining their current payroll around 150 mil means they can bring in a big time player for the next 5 years and be ok on the payroll side of things. 

I certainly hope Dave St Pete won't be confused as to why it's hard to sell tickets next year after this self-induced momentum killer of a decision.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are actually in pretty good shape. 

They have guys they pay: Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, Polanco, Kepler, Lopez, and Farmer (7 -$93M).

They have guys who are still inexpensive: Castro, Paddack, Thielbar, Jeffers, and Kirilloff. Oh ... and Dobnak (5 -$15M).

Then the rest are minimum or close: Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Duran, Jax, Stewart, Funderburk, Alcala, Ryan, Ober, Varland and guys to fill out team (14 -$11M).

There are players near ready to contribute: Martin, Miranda, Camargo, Lee, Pratto, Helman, Severino, Kiersey Jr., and pitchers.

The Twins need to make a decision at second base going forward. Seattle is waiting for a phone call or visit. Some combination of Polanco, Kepler, Julien, Lee, and some minor league players lower in value will get their attention. NOT ALL - don't panic. 

The Twins need to add a pitcher of value and that might sting a bit, but that is why Falvey makes the big bucks. 

The Twins could be better next year.

[FlyingFinn]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins need to make a decision at second base going forward. Seattle is waiting for a phone call or visit. Some combination of Polanco, Kepler, Julien, Lee,

If we are cutting salary, it's not going to be Julien or Lee. It will be Polanco, Kepler or/and Farmer.

[chpettit19]

Just now, FlyingFinn said:

If we are cutting salary, it's not going to be Julien or Lee. It will be Polanco, Kepler or/and Farmer.

And they aren't bringing back one of Seattle's cheap, controllable arms.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Absolutely brutal bucket of cold water thrown on the fire of fan enthusiasm they were finally building after some playoff success. It's not my money so it's easy for me to say this, but I will never understand the business decision of finally getting momentum and then not investing 15 mil into your product for a year to continue to build excitement moving forward when you're a multi-billionaire and 15 mil is a rounding error for you.

They're going to spin it as a youth movement, and I know many of you are excited for that, but a team that's truly trying to win a World Series at a more than reasonable cost takes advantage of this youth movement by adding topline talent to their roster while they have so many cheap players. See current World Series champions Texas Rangers. I'm not even asking for the Twins to go that bonkers, but just maintaining their current payroll around 150 mil means they can bring in a big time player for the next 5 years and be ok on the payroll side of things. 

I certainly hope Dave St Pete won't be confused as to why it's hard to sell tickets next year after this self-induced momentum killer of a decision.

I totally agree with this sentiment. 

However, unless one is to just abandon all hope or baseball altogether, an adjustment is needed. Tampa Bay doesn't have any secrets, they just work harder in my view to find ways to build a team that can compete. 

 

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, FlyingFinn said:

If we are cutting salary, it's not going to be Julien or Lee. It will be Polanco, Kepler or/and Farmer.

To bring back a good pitcher will require, as I suggested, a combination of players. Yes, Polanco or/and Kepler would likely be just a part of the package. Brooks Lee or Julien have some value as well. 

Of course there is the alternative of just rolling out the roster that is current. It is under budget right now or less than $125 million. When one looks at those lineups many people have  suggested, the teams listed are pretty much a return of the players already in the system plus a few free agent signings. Subtract the FA and there is your team for those who are opposed to trading.

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And they aren't bringing back one of Seattle's cheap, controllable arms.

You do not believe that Seattle has any interest in any of Polanco, Kepler, Julien, Lee, Wallner, etc.?

It is unknown whether any Twin has any value to another team, but Falvey has a job to determine how to fit pieces together which requires conversations with other teams.

[chpettit19]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

I totally agree with this sentiment. 

However, unless one is to just abandon all hope or baseball altogether, an adjustment is needed. Tampa Bay doesn't have any secrets, they just work harder in my view to find ways to build a team that can compete. 

 

How big of an adjustment? People keep quoting the "54.8 million" the Twins are "losing" as if they're not going to get paid to broadcast baseball games next year. Only half of that 55 mil goes to MLB payroll anyways. So about 27-28 mil. And they're going to get money to broadcast games next year, I promise. Even if it's only half that's still 12-14 mil for payroll they're getting back. So ignoring everything else, and just looking at the TV contract they will be down 12-14 mil in payroll.

The top number we've seen reported is 140 mil in payroll for 2024. Which is 15 mil below where they were at last year, and more than accounts for their TV revenue being half as much. But what about playoff revenue? I'm quite positive they weren't counting on that in their 2023 payroll (at least not advancing beyond the WC, or even hosting the WC round) so there's a few extra mil they made last year so now we're down to maybe 10-12 mil lower in payroll. If they don't take a self-induced step backwards (and that's what cutting payroll is despite everyone's excitement about the young guys and the team spinning this as a youth movement) in 2024 it is more than reasonable to expect another playoff trip and another few mil, or more, from that and we're now down to single digits when it comes to lost payroll expectations. If the Pohlads won't cover that fans should be pissed.

An adjustment shouldn't be needed. Their sell job of losing all this money and being doomed is PR spin to get people to still buy season tickets. Yes, Tampa wins, but Oakland doesn't, Pittsburgh doesn't, KC doesn't, Miami doesn't, Baltimore doesn't, Cinci doesn't. Pointing to the 1 team out of the bottom 10 payrolls that actually wins consistently is misrepresenting the likelihood of being a sustained winner while cutting payroll. The rest of the bottom 3rd in payrolls have little spikes here and there where they can try to make a run. They don't sustain success by any means. Tampa is an outlier, not a norm.

[FlyingFinn]

Anyone else picture this - we don't do much of anything in free agency, Buxton is unable play CF, and the Twins change their plan and move Lewis to CF? I think the lower payroll gets, the more likely this is to happen.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You do not believe that Seattle has any interest in any of Polanco, Kepler, Julien, Lee, Wallner, etc.?

It is unknown whether any Twin has any value to another team, but Falvey has a job to determine how to fit pieces together which requires conversations with other teams.

I was responding to the post suggesting it'd be Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer that move. And, no, those 3 will not bring back a young arm from Seattle. Trading Julien, Lee, and/or Wallner types for an arm doesn't improve the team, it just weakens an offense that is already counting on an historic rookie class maintaining their production over full seasons while also adding more top end talent from the system. And an offense that has been the most constant problem when it comes to winning playoff games. They already scored 3 runs or fewer in 4 of their 6 playoff games and now people want to trade from the top of the offense?

The expectation that Julien, Lewis, and Wallner all maintain their performance while Lee, Martin, Severino, etc. are also all productive MLB players is a massive bet. And then you add on that you need a few of those guys to turn into legitimate stars to actually have a real shot at the WS is an even bigger bet. The more likely result is that multiple of these young guys fail. That's just the reality of it. It's why you supplement them with established big leaguers, and not cut payroll while your window is wide open.

[Reptevia]

I think $125M is the CEILING.  Trade Polanco and Kepler. No, there is not anyone “better” waiting in the wings, but you generally don’t get better when you cut payroll. 

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Anyone else picture this - we don't do much of anything in free agency, Buxton is unable play CF, and the Twins change their plan and move Lewis to CF? I think the lower payroll gets, the more likely this is to happen.

This should happen regardless of what happens to the payroll. It's easier to find someone who can play 3B well vs. someone who can play CF well. Both Lewis and Austin Martin should be training in the OF this offseason. 

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

How big of an adjustment? People keep quoting the "54.8 million" the Twins are "losing" as if they're not going to get paid to broadcast baseball games next year. Only half of that 55 mil goes to MLB payroll anyways. So about 27-28 mil. And they're going to get money to broadcast games next year, I promise. Even if it's only half that's still 12-14 mil for payroll they're getting back. So ignoring everything else, and just looking at the TV contract they will be down 12-14 mil in payroll.

The top number we've seen reported is 140 mil in payroll for 2024. Which is 15 mil below where they were at last year, and more than accounts for their TV revenue being half as much. But what about playoff revenue? I'm quite positive they weren't counting on that in their 2023 payroll (at least not advancing beyond the WC, or even hosting the WC round) so there's a few extra mil they made last year so now we're down to maybe 10-12 mil lower in payroll. If they don't take a self-induced step backwards (and that's what cutting payroll is despite everyone's excitement about the young guys and the team spinning this as a youth movement) in 2024 it is more than reasonable to expect another playoff trip and another few mil, or more, from that and we're now down to single digits when it comes to lost payroll expectations. If the Pohlads won't cover that fans should be pissed.

An adjustment shouldn't be needed. Their sell job of losing all this money and being doomed is PR spin to get people to still buy season tickets. Yes, Tampa wins, but Oakland doesn't, Pittsburgh doesn't, KC doesn't, Miami doesn't, Baltimore doesn't, Cinci doesn't. Pointing to the 1 team out of the bottom 10 payrolls that actually wins consistently is misrepresenting the likelihood of being a sustained winner while cutting payroll. The rest of the bottom 3rd in payrolls have little spikes here and there where they can try to make a run. They don't sustain success by any means. Tampa is an outlier, not a norm.

I try not to get too wound up about those things I cannot control. 

Yes, I agree with you about how this has put a dent in what the Twins could potentially accomplish in regards to fielding a better team next season. I'm very frustrated by all of this too and disagree with the direction.

However, I'm a baseball fan and Twins fan and neither are likely to suddenly end. Also, the Pohlads have always run the Twins as a business, which is their prerogative and I felt this was predictable.  

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I was responding to the post suggesting it'd be Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer that move. And, no, those 3 will not bring back a young arm from Seattle. Trading Julien, Lee, and/or Wallner types for an arm doesn't improve the team, it just weakens an offense that is already counting on an historic rookie class maintaining their production over full seasons while also adding more top end talent from the system. And an offense that has been the most constant problem when it comes to winning playoff games. They already scored 3 runs or fewer in 4 of their 6 playoff games and now people want to trade from the top of the offense?

The expectation that Julien, Lewis, and Wallner all maintain their performance while Lee, Martin, Severino, etc. are also all productive MLB players is a massive bet. And then you add on that you need a few of those guys to turn into legitimate stars to actually have a real shot at the WS is an even bigger bet. The more likely result is that multiple of these young guys fail. That's just the reality of it. It's why you supplement them with established big leaguers, and not cut payroll while your window is wide open.

Again, i think we agree that this is a big disappointment. The way to improve is by adding solid players and allowing the prospects and young guys to develop in their careers without so many expectations, and those other things you say. 

The reality of corporate decision-making changes the calculus.

"The Twins need to make a decision at second base going forward. Seattle is waiting for a phone call or visit. Some combination of Polanco, Kepler, Julien, Lee, and some minor league players lower in value will get their attention. NOT ALL - don't panic."

This is what I wrote, copied just above.

You may not agree but a decision at second base frees up either Julien or Lee to be added to Polanco or Kepler plus a few lottery types. In any event, perhaps other teams do not see any value in the Twins players enough to return anything worthwhile. That is an unknown to me. It just seems like there are still possible trades to make.

 

[chpettit19]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

I try not to get too wound up about those things I cannot control. 

Yes, I agree with you about how this has put a dent in what the Twins could potentially accomplish in regards to fielding a better team next season. I'm very frustrated by all of this too and disagree with the direction.

However, I'm a baseball fan and Twins fan and neither are likely to suddenly end. Also, the Pohlads have always run the Twins as a business, which is their prerogative and I felt this was predictable.  

Oh, it's certainly not a surprise, but I think it's also worth us voicing our frustrations and not allowing them to sell this as anything other than them trying to make as much as they can without regards to trying to build a contending team. 

My everyday life won't change in any way, shape, or form because of this, but I'll voice my opinions on things because I assume the Twins are run well enough to have people gauging public sentiment towards their team. I will let it be known that I find this unacceptable. I'm sure season ticket reps are hearing it already. I've already gotten calls the last few weeks trying to get me to sign up for my season ticket package again. There's a 0% chance of that happening. 

I will always cheer for the Twins, but I won't pretend this isn't a slap in the face to fans. The Pohlads won't care while they sit on their stacks of cash, and St Peter has already made his opinions known about what he thinks of Twins fans after the 2022 season, but while not getting too wound up about it, I'll still voice frustrations. 

None of this is to suggest you should act or feel as I do. We all fan our own ways. Just giving you my perspective and why I'll be whining all over TD all day.

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

This should happen regardless of what happens to the payroll. It's easier to find someone who can play 3B well vs. someone who can play CF well. Both Lewis and Austin Martin should be training in the OF this offseason. 

Well, many folks have thought Lewis in CF and Lee at 3B would strengthen the team. The Twins, or at least Falvey and Baldelli have firmly commented on this as has the agent, S. Boras. Oh, people can change their minds but I think that ship has sailed.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Again, i think we agree that this is a big disappointment. The way to improve is by adding solid players and allowing the prospects and young guys to develop in their careers without so many expectations, and those other things you say. 

The reality of corporate decision-making changes the calculus.

"The Twins need to make a decision at second base going forward. Seattle is waiting for a phone call or visit. Some combination of Polanco, Kepler, Julien, Lee, and some minor league players lower in value will get their attention. NOT ALL - don't panic."

This is what I wrote, copied just above.

You may not agree but a decision at second base frees up either Julien or Lee to be added to Polanco or Kepler plus a few lottery types. In any event, perhaps other teams do not see any value in the Twins players enough to return anything worthwhile. That is an unknown to me. It just seems like there are still possible trades to make.

 

I wouldn't be surprised by a trade of anyone you mentioned. I just don't think it's a good way to improve this team. Even taking into account the payroll reduction. Trading any of the young guys for an arm is, at best, a neutral move, in my opinion. Taking everything out of this other than "is the team better after the trade" when it comes to a trade of Julien, Lee, Wallner, any young guy, my opinion is that the team would not be any better after the trade. This offense isn't good enough, and trading someone you expect to be a vital part of an already not good enough offense simply doesn't make the team better, in my opinion.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The reality of corporate decision-making changes the calculus.

 

This is an interesting sentiment to me. If we're looking at this strictly from a corporate decision-making point of view I'd argue this is actually the opposite of what a non-sports corporation would do. 

The Twins are the product, right? In most corporate situations they create a product, think it'll sell, and then adjust off that. If they have a product that isn't selling as well as they'd like, but is vital to their business, they'd likely invest in that product to improve it knowing that's the most likely way to sell more of it, correct? I doubt the typical corporate decision is to take the most vital product they have, the core of their business, see it not making as much as they'd like, and then actively make it worse in hopes of being able to improve sales for the future.

I work in pricing in distribution. We have dozens of manufacturers we work with. During the last 3 years we've seen prices for the products we distribute fluctuate wildly. We were handed price increases from manufacturers regularly as they adjusted during the 2020-2022 time frame. Never once did they come to us and say "hey, we're going to go ahead and make this product worse while not lowering the cost of it at all and we expect to see the sales increase so we can then make the product better again in the future." And, to me, that's what the Twins are doing now.

[tony&rodney]

One could argue that the depth added last offseason was an integral part of the team's success in 2023. When a team cuts payroll by (potentially) $20+ million, depth will not be as strong.

The two Twins I have enjoyed the most in the last five years (Jorge Polanco & Max Kepler) would ideally be centerpieces of a 2024 team. However, financial realities may interfere with their inclusion on next year's team. One or both may be traded.

The Twins could use a veteran bat like Hoskins and a veteran outfielder like Kiermaier. Both would create depth. Both seem like remote possibilities if the budget shrinks to $125 million. That leaves a greater dependence on guys like Austin Martin, Willi Castro, Jose Miranda, Anthony Pratto, Michael Helman, and Yunior Severino. The odds are not in their favor over veterans, but this is what the Twins are looking at for 2024 potentially.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This is an interesting sentiment to me. If we're looking at this strictly from a corporate decision-making point of view I'd argue this is actually the opposite of what a non-sports corporation would do. 

The Twins are the product, right? In most corporate situations they create a product, think it'll sell, and then adjust off that. If they have a product that isn't selling as well as they'd like, but is vital to their business, they'd likely invest in that product to improve it knowing that's the most likely way to sell more of it, correct? I doubt the typical corporate decision is to take the most vital product they have, the core of their business, see it not making as much as they'd like, and then actively make it worse in hopes of being able to improve sales for the future.

I work in pricing in distribution. We have dozens of manufacturers we work with. During the last 3 years we've seen prices for the products we distribute fluctuate wildly. We were handed price increases from manufacturers regularly as they adjusted during the 2020-2022 time frame. Never once did they come to us and say "hey, we're going to go ahead and make this product worse while not lowering the cost of it at all and we expect to see the sales increase so we can then make the product better again in the future." And, to me, that's what the Twins are doing now.

Twins calculus. Is that fair?

Again, I'm not a fan of the Twins front offices or owners and never have been. I'm just a lowly baseball fan.

[tony&rodney]

The common thought that Royce Lewis should be shifted to CF to create an opening for Brooks Lee at 3B has been floated for over a year and re-booted consistently. In theory it seems like a good fix.

In practice, all of Falvey, Baldelli, Boras, and Lewis believe that Royce is best suited to play third base. This creates a backup.

The Twins have second basemen galore: Polanco, Julien, Farmer, Castro, and Gordon with MLB experience and Lee, Martin, Pratto, Helman, and Severino with AAA experience.

If Julien has peaked or the feeling is that his defense and batting attributes are not that stellar, trade him if there is worth.  The same goes for Lee. Both Julien and Lee are at peak value. A couple of years ago, Austin Martin and SWR brought Jose Berrios to Toronto. Is it possible that one of Kepler or Polanco, either Julien or Lee, plus a guy like SWR and Jovani Moran could return a very good pitcher? What does it take?