How Could a Jhoan Duran Extension Take Shape?

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

They’re people posting that Duran is not elite. If he isn’t what is the definition of elite?

NO KIDDING - almost scrolled to the bottom to jump all over that notion!! Did anyone watch him throw in the playoffs? Back to back innings in his last outing against Houston & 1 base runner. He may need a bit more guidance with his pitch selection but his talent - ability to dominate, is second to none!

He tends to seem to want to look cool or fool people - batters - fans entering games?? Guy throws 101-102 easily & at that speed he seems to have control, wild high at 103 plus, often - his curve is nearly un-hittable but not always in the zone - splinker is devastating but seldom a strike. He chooses to not throw pitches to get ahead way too often IMO. Comes into a game and he might not throw the 101mph “controlled” fastball until his 5th pitch. Gets behind - walks guys too often. Once he gets behind, batters sit on fastball to make contact.

Throw a fastball & get ahead & then do whatever you like as hitter needs to protect the zone after first strike is called.

He’s fantastic - the $$ numbers are somewhat just semantics from us fans. Infinite options. I like the term outlined in deal shown - $3M - $5M - $7M - $9M - $13M x 3 years = $63M total guarantee 5 years with two option years.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think "all you get is a really expensive reliever" is selling elite closers short.

I think you can turn most 4th starters into elite relievers. The Twins did just that with Varland this summer.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think you can turn most 4th starters into elite relievers. The Twins did just that with Varland this summer.

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that Louie Varland and Jhoan Duran are the same.

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that Louie Varland and Jhoan Duran are the same.

Pitcher WAA

Stewart 1.2

Duran 1.0

Pagan 0.8

That's with Duran getting undeserved extra credit for leverage. Pagan actually did a better job preventing runs this season than Duran did. An "elite" reliever is worth maybe half a win more than a solid but not "elite" reliever over the course of a season.

I don't think this is Duran's best season, that is yet to come. He's going to get paid in arbitration so I would recommend they give him the money now to get the discount but I'd still trade him when he gets expensive.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Pitcher WAA

Stewart 1.2

Duran 1.0

Pagan 0.8

That's with Duran getting undeserved extra credit for leverage. Pagan actually did a better job preventing runs this season than Duran did. An "elite" reliever is worth maybe half a win more than a solid but not "elite" reliever over the course of a season.

I don't think this is Duran's best season, that is yet to come. He's going to get paid in arbitration so I would recommend they give him the money now to get the discount but I'd still trade him when he gets expensive.

If your belief is that trading out Duran for Pagan this year leads to the same results, cool. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here. I think the vast majority of relievers are pretty interchangeable year to year. I think there's a different level, though, and I think Duran is in it. You don't have to agree. You think Pagan and Varland are the same as Duran. I don't. To each their own.

[darin617]

I would honestly be putting him on the market and clean up possibly on a team desperate for a power arm.

I am afraid it's only a matter of time before either his elbow or shoulder explode. 

He also wasn't lights out this year either. With bullpen arms teams would be better to go year to year. 

[twinstalker]

How could a Jhoan Duran extension take place?

With very little forethought, probably.  I might be missing something, but the Twins have team control for four more years, and relievers who depend on velocity aren't generally the same pitcher after six years.  I was surprised he made it through this year uninjured.  I mean, it's not my money, so I don't care unless it takes away from the Twins signing someone helpful (when he's not).  See where he's at after four years here, and it might make some sense.

Duran was worse this year than last.  It's possible it's a trend.  Why not wait to see?  His BB/9 nearly doubled, and his runs/9 almost doubled, and his FIP increased by 30%.  I would certainly wait a year, probably two, before deciding to guarantee big salaries.

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If your belief is that trading out Duran for Pagan this year leads to the same results, cool. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here. I think the vast majority of relievers are pretty interchangeable year to year. I think there's a different level, though, and I think Duran is in it. You don't have to agree. You think Pagan and Varland are the same as Duran. I don't. To each their own.

Not the exact same results, but within a win or two. Duran is definitely better than Pagan or Varland but not enough better to make a big difference over 60 innings. Plus, like you said you need a LOT of relievers so the impact of one of those relief pitchers is diluted. It doesn't matter if you have a stud for the 9th inning if you never get to the 9th inning with a lead.

Relief pitching has the highest cost per marginal WAR in free agency. The Twins are a mid-market team. They can't build a team paying retail prices for relievers.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Duran was worse this year than last.  It's possible it's a trend.  Why not wait to see?  His BB/9 nearly doubled, and his runs/9 almost doubled, and his FIP increased by 30%.  I would certainly wait a year, probably two, before deciding to guarantee big salaries.

Buy low, sell high. The time to buy is now.

[arby58]

14 hours ago, Bodie said:

Joe Nathan.  He was elite. Until he wasn't, and then he was not even close.

Joe Nathan started closing at age 29. Between ages 29 and 39, he had 44, 43, 36, 37, 39, 47, 14 (injured), 37, 43, and 35 saves. I guess he 'was not even close' when he turned 40.
 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Not the exact same results, but within a win or two. Duran is definitely better than Pagan or Varland but not enough better to make a big difference over 60 innings. Plus, like you said you need a LOT of relievers so the impact of one of those relief pitchers is diluted. It doesn't matter if you have a stud for the 9th inning if you never get to the 9th inning with a lead.

Relief pitching has the highest cost per marginal WAR in free agency. The Twins are a mid-market team. They can't build a team paying retail prices for relievers.

I don't care about 60 regular season innings, or reliever WAR (completely useless stat). I care about winning playoff games. Emilio Pagan trying to close out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of. Louie Varland closing out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of (if they move him to the pen full-time maybe he earns that trust, but not with a month of relief appearances). Duran is "enough better to make a big difference" in the postseason, to me. Plus, we saw Pagan try to close in 2022. It was a very big difference to Duran doing it. Not all relievers are the same. And it can be a very big difference when you have Colome and Pagan blowing save after save.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that Louie Varland and Jhoan Duran are the same.

BTW - Varland as a reliever had a 1.50 RA, 12.8 K/9 and 17.00 K/BB ratio in 12 innings. His fastball was in the upper 90s and his breaking stuff improved substantially. He was dominant.

[chpettit19]

Just now, DJL44 said:

BTW - Varland as a reliever had a 1.50 RA, 12.8 K/9 and 17.00 K/BB ratio in 12 innings. His fastball was in the upper 90s and his breaking stuff improved substantially. He was dominant.

I put literally 0 weight on a 12 inning sample size, sorry.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't care about 60 regular season innings, or reliever WAR (completely useless stat). I care about winning playoff games. Emilio Pagan trying to close out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of. Louie Varland closing out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of (if they move him to the pen full-time maybe he earns that trust, but not with a month of relief appearances). Duran is "enough better to make a big difference" in the postseason, to me. Plus, we saw Pagan try to close in 2022. It was a very big difference to Duran doing it. Not all relievers are the same. And it can be a very big difference when you have Colome and Pagan blowing save after save.

I'm with you on reliever WAR, it significantly overrates relievers compared to starting pitchers.

Pagan might not be closing out the game, but they're still going to use him (or someone like him) just like the Phillies have had to lean on Jeff Hoffman to get them through close playoff games. Meanwhile 2023 All-Star Craig Kimbrel has been awful.

If paying a premium for 60 regular season innings doesn't make sense, it makes even less sense for 3 postseason innings. The best pitcher is often someone the batter hasn't seen before. The Twins strategy of turning their unused starters (Maeda, Varland, Paddack) into relief help was effective.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm with you on reliever WAR, it significantly overrates relievers compared to starting pitchers.

Pagan might not be closing out the game, but they're still going to use him (or someone like him) just like the Phillies have had to lean on Jeff Hoffman to get them through close playoff games. Meanwhile 2023 All-Star Craig Kimbrel has been awful.

If paying a premium for 60 regular season innings doesn't make sense, it makes even less sense for 3 postseason innings. The best pitcher is often someone the batter hasn't seen before. The Twins strategy of turning their unused starters (Maeda, Varland, Paddack) into relief help was effective.

The Twins used Pagan twice this postseason. They were losing both games when they put him in. 

Jeff Hoffman has been used 7 times, 4 of them he went less than an inning, including 3 appearances of .1 innings, one of which he blew the lead. He's pitched in the 8th inning 3 times, 1 he faced 2 batters and blew the lead, another he faced 1 batter, the other his team was up 6-1. 

I don't mean to be rude, but I'm not going to continue with this discussion. I appreciate the back and forth, but we simply don't agree. You're not going to convince me that building a pen full of Pagan and Varlands is the same as building a pen full of Duran and Haders. Maeda was used twice, while losing, and wasn't particularly good in either appearance. Paddack was used twice, while losing, but was quite good. Varland faced 4 batters and got 2 outs in the WC round and wasn't trusted to be used at all in the ALDS. They're not at all a good example of your point that relievers are all the same.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You're not going to convince me that building a pen full of Pagan and Varlands is the same as building a pen full of Duran and Haders.

The Twins can't afford the latter and even having Duran didn't help them advance past the 2nd round this year. One relief pitcher cannot carry a team in the postseason, they just don't pitch enough innings to have that kind of impact.

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins can't afford the latter and even having Duran didn't help them advance past the 2nd round this year. One relief pitcher cannot carry a team in the postseason, they just don't pitch enough innings to have that kind of impact.

One any player can't carry a team in the postseason. Yordan Alvarez did everything he could to carry Houston, and they're now done. One starting pitcher can't carry a team in the postseason either. Should they not try to get superstar starters or bats? I'm not going to respond anymore. There is a difference between bad, ok, good, great, and elite players at every position. And it matters at every position. Even the bullpen.

[Bodie]

8 hours ago, arby58 said:

Joe Nathan started closing at age 29. Between ages 29 and 39, he had 44, 43, 36, 37, 39, 47, 14 (injured), 37, 43, and 35 saves. I guess he 'was not even close' when he turned 40.
 

No, he wasn't.  He was not even close.

Elite doesn't mean good.  Or even great.  The elite are by definition the best of the best. 

[Bodie]

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If your belief is that trading out Duran for Pagan this year leads to the same results, cool. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here. I think the vast majority of relievers are pretty interchangeable year to year. I think there's a different level, though, and I think Duran is in it. You don't have to agree. You think Pagan and Varland are the same as Duran. I don't. To each their own.

Sorry to but in others' debate,  but you are correct. 

As the old adage goes:  there are lies, damnable lies and then statistics.  Any statistic that says that Pagan and Duran are even close to equal pitchers this past season can be put in the same circular file as OPS+ (which says that '23 Gallo was above average!).

[TL]

I really want Duran to do the smart thing (if offered) and take the ~$30MM, with possibility of ~$55M with options, and not question it. Taking a chance that you maybe can get a $100MM contract 4 years from now has way too much injury/performance risk to not bank life changing and perhaps generational money right now.

I hope the Twins offer it as part of a strategy to lock up their pre-arb core and trust that in aggregate those deals will pay off even if one or two of them falter.

 

 

[ashbury]

17 hours ago, Bodie said:

Sorry to but in others' debate, 

OPS+ (which says that '23 Gallo was above average!).

It does not.  And I'm not going to debate this here, to further dilute the Duran discussion.  But you don't get a free shot like that either.

[Bodie]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

It does not.  And I'm not going to debate this here, to further dilute the Duran discussion.  But you don't get a free shot like that either.

I checked.

Gallo's 2023 OPS+ is 101 

[TwinsDr2021]

I am against extending relief pitchers in general, but if Duran and his agent were dumb enough to sign this deal I do it in a heartbeat.

IMO this deal offered is at least 15 million to low side. If I am Duran's agent there is no way I am telling him to sign a deal that takes 3 years of free agency for 40 million.

[Vanimal46]

On 10/24/2023 at 8:57 AM, chpettit19 said:

I don't care about 60 regular season innings, or reliever WAR (completely useless stat). I care about winning playoff games. Emilio Pagan trying to close out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of. Louie Varland closing out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of (if they move him to the pen full-time maybe he earns that trust, but not with a month of relief appearances). Duran is "enough better to make a big difference" in the postseason, to me. Plus, we saw Pagan try to close in 2022. It was a very big difference to Duran doing it. Not all relievers are the same. And it can be a very big difference when you have Colome and Pagan blowing save after save.

You say that this year but you don’t know what the future holds. If playoff success is all you’re seeking, there are unlikely playoff heroes all the time. 

A mid market team like the Twins can’t afford market rate prices for relievers without sacrificing something else. Falvey has proven over multiple seasons the ability to cobble together a top of the league bullpen. 

[Vanimal46]

On 10/24/2023 at 7:46 AM, DJL44 said:

Relief pitching has the highest cost per marginal WAR in free agency. The Twins are a mid-market team. They can't build a team paying retail prices for relievers.

Bingo. Not without sacrificing something else. Would I rather have a $15 million closer, or use that money on a bat, or multiple players for the roster? I know what I’m choosing. 

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

You say that this year but you don’t know what the future holds. If playoff success is all you’re seeking, there are unlikely playoff heroes all the time. 

A mid market team like the Twins can’t afford market rate prices for relievers without sacrificing something else. Falvey has proven over multiple seasons the ability to cobble together a top of the league bullpen. 

Nobody can predict the future, that's not a reason to plan on Pagan being your closer instead of Duran. The goal is to give yourself the best odds of finding future success. Do you think that's to rely on Pagan types or Duran types? You can't predict Atlanta's elite offense going ice cold in the playoffs, but do you think it's equally as good to rely on Washington's offense to have been a playoff success this year? Not knowing what the future holds isn't at all a reason to fill your team with guys who've historically been far worse. I don't understand what you're even trying to suggest there. "Hey, Joey Gallo may hit .300 in 2024, you don't know what the future holds!" I'll take my chances with Duran over Pagan.

That's why I'd extend Duran now so they don't have to pay market rates. No team can afford market rates everywhere so they all have to sacrifice something else. I would sacrifice certain other things to lock in Duran at a below market rate. The Twins bullpen ERA in 2023 was 15th best in baseball. In 2022 it was 16th best. In 2021 it was 20th best. In 2020 it was 6th best. In 2019 it was 10th best. in 2018 it was 22nd best. In 2017 it was 22nd best. I'm not seeing the "top of the league bullpen" over "multiple seasons" there. And the only reason they weren't right at the bottom in 2022 was because Duran carried them to respectability. Taking Duran out of this pen would be a massive blow, and they'd be well below average overall. They put together a very nice bullpen for the last couple weeks of the regular season and playoffs in 2023, but they absolutely haven't had a "top of the league bullpen" for multiple seasons.

[Vanimal46]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The goal is to give yourself the best odds of finding future success. Do you think that's to rely on Pagan types or Duran types? You can't predict Atlanta's elite offense going ice cold in the playoffs, but do you think it's equally as good to rely on Washington's offense to have been a playoff success this year? Not knowing what the future holds isn't at all a reason to fill your team with guys who've historically been far worse. I don't understand what you're even trying to suggest there.

I replied to a post where your literal first sentence is I don’t care about 60 regular season innings. And proceeded to talk about feeling better about Duran in a playoff series vs. Pagan. What was this about? What are you suggesting? 

 

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

That's why I'd extend Duran now so they don't have to pay market rates. No team can afford market rates everywhere so they all have to sacrifice something else.

The first post you made is the under market rate contract is a no brainer but Duran would never sign it. So we have to offer market rates or higher. 
 

 

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins bullpen ERA in 2023 was 15th best in baseball. In 2022 it was 16th best. In 2021 it was 20th best. In 2020 it was 6th best. In 2019 it was 10th best. in 2018 it was 22nd best. In 2017 it was 22nd best. I'm not seeing the "top of the league bullpen" over "multiple seasons" there.

You feel better about me saying top half of the league in bullpen? Because that’s what I meant and you kindly showed stats where they have shown to cobble together a top half of the league bullpen with relative nobodies. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I replied to a post where your literal first sentence is I don’t care about 60 regular season innings. And proceeded to talk about feeling better about Duran in a playoff series vs. Pagan. What was this about? What are you suggesting? 

 

The first post you made is the under market rate contract is a no brainer but Duran would never sign it. So we have to offer market rates or higher. 
 

 

You feel better about me saying top half of the league in bullpen? Because that’s what I meant and you kindly showed stats where they have shown to cobble together a top half of the league bullpen with relative nobodies. 

I'm suggesting Jhoan Duran is a far better bet to close out a 1 run playoff game than Pagan is. I'm not sure what the confusion is. Do you disagree with that statement? 

I said he wouldn't sign one that far below market rate. I didn't say to pay him 20 mil a year from now on, I said he wasn't likely to leave 100 mil on the table so you were going to have to increase the numbers from what Seth suggested..

Yes, I feel better with you saying top half of the league instead of top of the league if you mean top half and not top. But even top half is a stretch. They have 2 seasons clearly in the top half. 2 right at the halfway point. And 3 seasons clearly in the bottom half. These boards are full of many of us complaining about the bullpen building every offseason, and during every season. Is the goal to be a "top half of the league" team or a "top of the league" team? I'd like to be top of the league, but not every fan has the same goal. Being the 15th best offense or rotation wouldn't impress many of us, why should we be impressed that they were the 15th best bullpen while being carried for most of the season by the guy people seem to be ok moving on from because he's no more trustworthy than Pagan or any random #4 starter? You think this pen would be "top half of the league" without Duran? I certainly don't.

[Shobae]

I know I'm coming late to this but I am firmly convinced that the Twins need to extend Duran this off-season. First and most importantly they can buy out one of his pre-arb seasons where he is basically being robbed of millions of dollars, that gives them more leverage then they will have at any point in the future. The other fact is that he is coming of a down season, which means he will be cheaper than if he puts up a 2022 level campaign at some point in the future. Now if you think, this season is more his norm then maybe you shouldn't extend him, but I am not very convinced by that. We know that velocity and having more than 2 pitches are general indicators of success and Duran has both of those. He isn't some FB only guy (which is his worst pitch funnily enough) who could be finished by one major arm injury.

The reason you need to extend Duran is because you are extremely unlikely to get a pitcher with his caliber of stuff in the future, heck it could be decades before that happens. Also we all know what the high end closers are making in FA and that's not amount of money you want to be spending on a reliever. So it makes sense to lock up an elite reliever for his prime at well below market rate. Yes there is risk involved but if this team is willing to give Buxton 100 mil, then there is no reason not to extend Duran (arguably there is less risk than with Buxton). Also not having to worry about the number 1 in your bullpen for the next 4-7 years is something that any team should want.

As for the actual contract itself I think that's perhaps a more realistic model, but personally I wouldn't do that it like that. Back-loading a deal when he's far more likely to be cooked while paying him basically what he would have made without an extension in his first 2-4 seasons makes no sense at all to me. The incentive for him is that he has guaranteed money but also has that now. I would probably start with 4/5 mil for this season which is massive underpay still for what you're getting even if you think 1 war = 4 (half of FA) he should be making at least 8. So I'd probably do something along the lines of 5, 6, 8, 10, 12.5, 12.5 guaranteed, which works out to 54 mil over 6 seasons, which is fair(ish) to both sides and I think would give Duran serious incentive to sign. I'm sure the actual contract would look different but my overall philosophy would be pay him significantly more than he would make in the first 3 seasons, as to spread it more evenly on the back end when there is more risk of him being washed/cooked from TJ.