Jayce Tingler comments about the team's big-picture approach to analytics

[alexlegge]

Did anyone else catch Jayce Tingler's interview on Foul Territory between playoff rounds?

Although it's largely a bunch of pre-canned yet friendly non-answers, I thought what he said in response to Adam Jones' question (starting circa 9:30 in the video) shed some unique light onto the big-picture organizational process of integrating analytics. Seemed a little informative and very reassuring.

I'm curious about what others think here...maybe I'm making too much of Tingler's enthusiasm (ultimately this might just be his means of getting a head start at managerial interviewing?).

 

[Seth Stohs]

I like it a lot. There is such a strange part of fandom that doesn't get that this is the goal of all organizations and how they use analytics. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

7 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

I like it a lot. There is such a strange part of fandom that doesn't get that this is the goal of all organizations and how they use analytics. 

What do you mean? 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I guess I read Tingler’s remarks at 9:30 as: the front office generates reams of data, and then leaves it for Rocco to sort out and make the calls. 

What am I missing? 

Edited October 15, 2023 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

What do you mean? 

The front office provides Baldelli and the coaching staff with all kinds of data for them to review and study. Some is about Twins players, and some is about the other team. The players get as much information as they want as well... 

But as Tingler said... the manager is able to make decisions using that information, but also based on his knowledge of his team. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Oh ok , I think this is in response to people who say the front office makes all the calls about the game in advance. Yeah I don’t agree with that, it has to be Baldelli. Thanks. 

[chpettit19]

If this is actually true, and not just "technically" true then the Twins should go hire Joe Maddon. If they're truly not giving Rocco any guidance throughout the year on in-game strategy they should go hire the better manager.

It feels a lot more like "technically they don't sit down with Rocco before every game so it's him making the decisions independently," or "technically Rocco doesn't know exactly how the game will go so he's making decisions in game based on the action that's taking place." Joe Ryan coming out after 2 wasn't simply Rocco watching the game and deciding Joe didn't have more than 2 innings in him. That was a predetermined decision with just a couple options he'd choose between based on how the game went. You could never convince me that Joe Ryan was seeing Alvarez a second time in that game under any circumstance. And because of that the only decision Rocco had to make in game was whether or not he thought Joe could get 9-1-2 out in the 3rd so Thielbar didn't have to come in with a guy on base to face Alvarez or if a reliever had the better chance of the 1-2-3 inning. The rest of that game was predetermined decisions on who matched up best with what part of the order and that determined which reliever came in when.

Bundy and Archer types coming out early in games is absolutely part of the FO plan. They didn't sign those guys to be 6/7 inning guys and just let Rocco pull them when needed. They went into that season having spoken with Rocco and they were all on the same page that those guys were going to be 5 and fly at the best arms. So they may not have technically sat down with Rocco before each of their starts and said "pull this guy after twice through the order," but they were absolutely part of the conversation that that would be the overall strategy with those guys for the year.

The FO let's Rocco make the decisions in game, but he's still here because he's making the decisions they want him to make. If Rocco wasn't making decisions very similar to what they expect him to make he'd have been fired already. They aren't calling into the dugout telling Rocco what to do, or popping into the clubhouse everyday to discuss that day's strategy with him, but it's not like they never talk to Rocco or have anything to say about in-game strategy. Rocco and the FO obviously discuss bullpen usage and upcoming game strategy when it comes to 26-man roster decisions and the shuttling of pitchers between St Paul and Minneapolis. The FO is involved.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If this is actually true, and not just "technically" true then the Twins should go hire Joe Maddon. If they're truly not giving Rocco any guidance throughout the year on in-game strategy they should go hire the better manager.

It feels a lot more like "technically they don't sit down with Rocco before every game so it's him making the decisions independently," or "technically Rocco doesn't know exactly how the game will go so he's making decisions in game based on the action that's taking place." Joe Ryan coming out after 2 wasn't simply Rocco watching the game and deciding Joe didn't have more than 2 innings in him. That was a predetermined decision with just a couple options he'd choose between based on how the game went. You could never convince me that Joe Ryan was seeing Alvarez a second time in that game under any circumstance. And because of that the only decision Rocco had to make in game was whether or not he thought Joe could get 9-1-2 out in the 3rd so Thielbar didn't have to come in with a guy on base to face Alvarez or if a reliever had the better chance of the 1-2-3 inning. The rest of that game was predetermined decisions on who matched up best with what part of the order and that determined which reliever came in when.

Bundy and Archer types coming out early in games is absolutely part of the FO plan. They didn't sign those guys to be 6/7 inning guys and just let Rocco pull them when needed. They went into that season having spoken with Rocco and they were all on the same page that those guys were going to be 5 and fly at the best arms. So they may not have technically sat down with Rocco before each of their starts and said "pull this guy after twice through the order," but they were absolutely part of the conversation that that would be the overall strategy with those guys for the year.

The FO let's Rocco make the decisions in game, but he's still here because he's making the decisions they want him to make. If Rocco wasn't making decisions very similar to what they expect him to make he'd have been fired already. They aren't calling into the dugout telling Rocco what to do, or popping into the clubhouse everyday to discuss that day's strategy with him, but it's not like they never talk to Rocco or have anything to say about in-game strategy. Rocco and the FO obviously discuss bullpen usage and upcoming game strategy when it comes to 26-man roster decisions and the shuttling of pitchers between St Paul and Minneapolis. The FO is involved.

That's not what he said either.  To posit that as a theory requires accepting that its somehow possible to be an either or situation. 

It sounds to me like the upper levels of any other high performance, high functioning organization.  You are responsible for your area achieving to the long term vision of the president/owner etc.  How you do it is on you within legal/ethical boundaries.  If you need something, call me, but otherwise we will touch base every couple weeks.  Maybe we have a weekly staff meeting depending on how dynamic our business is. 

It's important to note that we don't know who Rocco reports to, who reports to him, Falvines separation of duties or how involved new Pohlad is.  Without some of this information its hard to know what is going on so we have to make assumptions.  I'm going to assume that they have something much closer to a structure and responsibilities laid out and work together when needed.  Obviously they are going to be mostly on the same page. It's the only thing that makes sense.

Frankly the narrative that Falvey is telling them everything from how many innings Dylan Bundy can pitch or to pull Joe Ryan after two or pinch hit all the time etc is ludicrous.  How much time do you think the man has?  Does he do it with all the minor league teams too?

Do you suppose Rocco got a demerit on his performance review when Bundy went 8 innings on June 18th?  They both would be welcome to pitch 9 everyday if they could have.  Of all the arms in the organization the boss might ask him to protect, these are not them. 

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

That's not what he said either.  To posit that as a theory requires accepting that its somehow possible to be an either or situation. 

It sounds to me like the upper levels of any other high performance, high functioning organization.  You are responsible for your area achieving to the long term vision of the president/owner etc.  How you do it is on you within legal/ethical boundaries.  If you need something, call me, but otherwise we will touch base every couple weeks.  Maybe we have a weekly staff meeting depending on how dynamic our business is. 

It's important to note that we don't know who Rocco reports to, who reports to him, Falvines separation of duties or how involved new Pohlad is.  Without some of this information its hard to know what is going on so we have to make assumptions.  I'm going to assume that they have something much closer to a structure and responsibilities laid out and work together when needed.  Obviously they are going to be mostly on the same page. It's the only thing that makes sense.

Frankly the narrative that Falvey is telling them everything from how many innings Dylan Bundy can pitch or to pull Joe Ryan after two or pinch hit all the time etc is ludicrous.  How much time do you think the man has?  Does he do it with all the minor league teams too?

Do you suppose Rocco got a demerit on his performance review when Bundy went 8 innings on June 18th?  They both would be welcome to pitch 9 everyday if they could have.  Of all the arms in the organization the boss might ask him to protect, these are not them. 

You think the FO brings in noted lefty killers like Farmer, Luplow, and Garlick and don't have a conversation with Rocco about using them against lefties as much as possible? They just cross their fingers Rocco will use them that way? As I said, they're not doing it before every game, but they're having those talks frequently. Like you said, likely every week or 2. Thus Jayce's talk of being "blown away" by how much freedom Rocco had is more along the lines of being technically true, and not some revelation that the FO has no part in how players are used.

And, yes, the FO does it with every minor league team, too. You think it was just a coincidence that Royce Lewis played all over in AAA before being called up to play all over? You think it's a coincidence Austin Martin is doing the same? Gardenhire just need a 3B for some random games here and there and decided to use Lee there on his own? You think the managers had free reign to use Walker Jenkins however they chose this summer? Those are FO edicts handed down to the managers, and then its the manager's job to fit all the pieces together. I never mentioned Falvey, I said the FO. It doesn't have to be the president having all the conversations. The point is that the managers of any team in the organization aren't acting independently of the FO. It's a 2 way street and the minor league clubs are giving feedback on how players are looking, and the strengths and weaknesses they're seeing, but it's the FO, more than just Falvey, who are driving the bus on player usage.

The FO isn't making every in game call, but acting like Rocco doesn't get input from them is what's ludicrous. I haven't said it's bad that they have input. Haven't said it's the wrong strategy. Just said this isn't some grand reveal that Rocco is acting completely independently, and truly using his gut to make all decisions real time without predetermined choices that were in place before the game started. The FO didn't send in the ALDS roster hoping Rocco would use guys in certain ways. They talked to Rocco and came up with a plan on how the roster best fit, and how each guy would best be used. They didn't add Ober with no idea that Rocco would start him game 1. Rocco wasn't just reading Ryan's body language and pitch data after the 2nd inning and decided he didn't have it that day. 

[Linus]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If this is actually true, and not just "technically" true then the Twins should go hire Joe Maddon. If they're truly not giving Rocco any guidance throughout the year on in-game strategy they should go hire the better manager.

It feels a lot more like "technically they don't sit down with Rocco before every game so it's him making the decisions independently," or "technically Rocco doesn't know exactly how the game will go so he's making decisions in game based on the action that's taking place." Joe Ryan coming out after 2 wasn't simply Rocco watching the game and deciding Joe didn't have more than 2 innings in him. That was a predetermined decision with just a couple options he'd choose between based on how the game went. You could never convince me that Joe Ryan was seeing Alvarez a second time in that game under any circumstance. And because of that the only decision Rocco had to make in game was whether or not he thought Joe could get 9-1-2 out in the 3rd so Thielbar didn't have to come in with a guy on base to face Alvarez or if a reliever had the better chance of the 1-2-3 inning. The rest of that game was predetermined decisions on who matched up best with what part of the order and that determined which reliever came in when.

Bundy and Archer types coming out early in games is absolutely part of the FO plan. They didn't sign those guys to be 6/7 inning guys and just let Rocco pull them when needed. They went into that season having spoken with Rocco and they were all on the same page that those guys were going to be 5 and fly at the best arms. So they may not have technically sat down with Rocco before each of their starts and said "pull this guy after twice through the order," but they were absolutely part of the conversation that that would be the overall strategy with those guys for the year.

The FO let's Rocco make the decisions in game, but he's still here because he's making the decisions they want him to make. If Rocco wasn't making decisions very similar to what they expect him to make he'd have been fired already. They aren't calling into the dugout telling Rocco what to do, or popping into the clubhouse everyday to discuss that day's strategy with him, but it's not like they never talk to Rocco or have anything to say about in-game strategy. Rocco and the FO obviously discuss bullpen usage and upcoming game strategy when it comes to 26-man roster decisions and the shuttling of pitchers between St Paul and Minneapolis. The FO is involved.

 Couldn’t agree with this more. 

[Nine of twelve]

One should not compare the front office's involvement with major league teams and its involvement with minor league teams. The mission of the Twins (and all teams) is to win at the major league level. The role of minor league teams is to support that mission by preparing players to perform in the majors. Individual players are handled almost as if they are on rehab assignments. So the front office must be and will be much more involved with how players are handled in the minor leagues, and as a result managing games in the minors will be done completely differently.

[Jocko87]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You think the FO brings in noted lefty killers like Farmer, Luplow, and Garlick and don't have a conversation with Rocco about using them against lefties as much as possible? They just cross their fingers Rocco will use them that way? As I said, they're not doing it before every game, but they're having those talks frequently. Like you said, likely every week or 2. Thus Jayce's talk of being "blown away" by how much freedom Rocco had is more along the lines of being technically true, and not some revelation that the FO has no part in how players are used.

And, yes, the FO does it with every minor league team, too. You think it was just a coincidence that Royce Lewis played all over in AAA before being called up to play all over? You think it's a coincidence Austin Martin is doing the same? Gardenhire just need a 3B for some random games here and there and decided to use Lee there on his own? You think the managers had free reign to use Walker Jenkins however they chose this summer? Those are FO edicts handed down to the managers, and then its the manager's job to fit all the pieces together. I never mentioned Falvey, I said the FO. It doesn't have to be the president having all the conversations. The point is that the managers of any team in the organization aren't acting independently of the FO. It's a 2 way street and the minor league clubs are giving feedback on how players are looking, and the strengths and weaknesses they're seeing, but it's the FO, more than just Falvey, who are driving the bus on player usage.

The FO isn't making every in game call, but acting like Rocco doesn't get input from them is what's ludicrous. I haven't said it's bad that they have input. Haven't said it's the wrong strategy. Just said this isn't some grand reveal that Rocco is acting completely independently, and truly using his gut to make all decisions real time without predetermined choices that were in place before the game started. The FO didn't send in the ALDS roster hoping Rocco would use guys in certain ways. They talked to Rocco and came up with a plan on how the roster best fit, and how each guy would best be used. They didn't add Ober with no idea that Rocco would start him game 1. Rocco wasn't just reading Ryan's body language and pitch data after the 2nd inning and decided he didn't have it that day. 

You think Rocco isn't part of the front office?

Really, I'm just going to cut and paste this for all these discussions.

[Jocko87]

7 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

One should not compare the front office's involvement with major league teams and its involvement with minor league teams. The mission of the Twins (and all teams) is to win at the major league level. The role of minor league teams is to support that mission by preparing players to perform in the majors. Individual players are handled almost as if they are on rehab assignments. So the front office must be and will be much more involved with how players are handled in the minor leagues, and as a result managing games in the minors will be done completely differently.

One absolutely should, if they want to understand the dynamics.

The front office and the owner sets the mission and touches base with each area as needed.  They don't flippin set pitch counts or innings limits, they hire the people who do that.  It's not different in the majors or minors. 

The minor league ops reports up to Falvey and/or Lavine (we don't know who does what) on their part of the mission. 

Rocco is certainly part of the discussion for what they need at the major league level.  He doesn't have to concern himself with players until they come on his radar as major league players which positionally puts him at the right hand of the front office, at the least. 

The framing that he just takes orders and is some sort of foot soldier is not realistic and needs to stop.

[Obsvr]

A great organization is in sync from top to bottom.  Whether or not you agree with their decisions, this front office is very well run.  Of course Rocco and the FO are working hand in hand, just as the FO is working closely with the minor league teams.  It sure seams from the outside looking in that there is a cohesive system and plan from the top to the bottom.

[alexlegge]

On 10/14/2023 at 9:16 PM, chpettit19 said:

If this is actually true, and not just "technically" true then the Twins should go hire Joe Maddon. If they're truly not giving Rocco any guidance throughout the year on in-game strategy they should go hire the better manager.

Interesting takes on your part. I like this one in particular, because your basic premise is spot on. But who's to say that Rocco *isn't* the better manager for this team in 2024 and beyond? That seems debatable. 

Also, while the pitching changes in Game 4 absolutely felt predetermined, I don't know if that's the most accurate word to describe them. Rocco seems to use more of an algorithmic-like approach to in-game strategy, which allows for many possible scenarios to unfold though also employs preplanned approaches for each of them. The result should always *feel* predetermined as it plays out, but in reality it's a reflection of most/all scenarios being taken into account. This is essentially the concept of 'multiple outs' used by magicians and mentalists...as well as many other forward-thinking experts in a variety of industries/settings.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The move to put Buxton on the roster before Game 4 and then put him in the game in a big spot would be a good way to test our theories about how the front office and the manager come to decisions. Unfortunately we are not privy to the discussions they had. 

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

You think Rocco isn't part of the front office?

Really, I'm just going to cut and paste this for all these discussions.

Jayce Tingler doesn't seem to think he is. "I've been absolutely blown away by how much they put on Rocco's plate. The front office stays really out of it. We are provided so much information, and we talk through all the scenarios before the game. And then at the end of the day Rocco makes the call."

Actually, the more I listen to that Jayce may actually be saying that him, Rocco, and the FO sit down everyday and discuss all the scenarios before the game. But I won't go that far. No, Rocco is not part of the FO. He works in tandem with them, but he is not a member of the front office.

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, alexlegge said:

Interesting takes on your part. I like this one in particular, because your basic premise is spot on. But who's to say that Rocco *isn't* the better manager for this team in 2024 and beyond? That seems debatable. 

Also, while the pitching changes in Game 4 absolutely felt predetermined, I don't know if that's the most accurate word to describe them. Rocco seems to use more of an algorithmic-like approach to in-game strategy, which allows for many possible scenarios to unfold though also employs preplanned approaches for each of them. The result should always *feel* predetermined as it plays out, but in reality it's a reflection of most/all scenarios being taken into account. This is essentially the concept of 'multiple outs' used by magicians and mentalists...as well as many other forward-thinking experts in a variety of industries/settings.

I don't mind Rocco, but I'd take Joe Maddon over him 10 out of 10 times. But we're not here to discuss outside options so we can leave that there. Probably wasn't necessary for me to even bring up in the first place.

I disagree that the results should always feel predetermined, though. Well, maybe I mean they shouldn't feel THAT predetermined. I don't believe Joe Ryan would've faced Alvarez even if he'd gone 11 up, 11 down. I don't think he'd even have gotten the chance to go 11 for 11 because they prefer relievers come in with a clean situation so they would've started the 4th with Thielbar facing the top of the order. I could certainly be wrong, and maybe there was a scenario that Ryan could've been allowed to go through the order a second time if he was throwing a no-no. 

Maybe the best way to describe it is that the predetermined plans are just too broad, or basic. What if Ryan had gone 10 up, 9 down, with the 1 HR, would Rocco have left him in? Was Rocco taking into account Ryan's pitch data? Batted ball data? Was it simply runs given up? Hits given up? Ks? BBs? I don't believe that Rocco was taking all that into account when he pulled Joe Ryan. I think it was far more basic than that. I think Joe Ryan was going to go once through the order and they were turning it over to the bullpen. I don't think they trusted Ryan to not have a blowup inning and they weren't going to take the chance. They wanted once through the order and he was done. He got through 8 guys and that triggered the "out." The "multiple outs" were 2 innings, 3 innings, or he's terrible and doesn't even make it 2. That is too predetermined. If there's not a situation that would've allowed him to go 4+ innings it's too predetermined for my liking. And this isn't just Rocco/the Twins. The Blue Jays ended their season by doing the same thing with Berrios. Very narrowly defined options based on FO data, and determined before the first cleat steps foot on the rubber, is how many, if not most, teams run now. And I think it's the wrong way to do things.

[Jocko87]

12 hours ago, Obsvr said:

A great organization is in sync from top to bottom.  Whether or not you agree with their decisions, this front office is very well run.  Of course Rocco and the FO are working hand in hand, just as the FO is working closely with the minor league teams.  It sure seams from the outside looking in that there is a cohesive system and plan from the top to the bottom.

Exactly, with one additional point.  If they do disagree, which I'm sure they do at times, they do it privately.  Sort it out behind closed doors but when they move forward they are on the same page. 

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Jayce Tingler doesn't seem to think he is. "I've been absolutely blown away by how much they put on Rocco's plate. The front office stays really out of it. We are provided so much information, and we talk through all the scenarios before the game. And then at the end of the day Rocco makes the call."

Actually, the more I listen to that Jayce may actually be saying that him, Rocco, and the FO sit down everyday and discuss all the scenarios before the game. But I won't go that far. No, Rocco is not part of the FO. He works in tandem with them, but he is not a member of the front office.

I wouldn't think Jayce would be at all.  In my estimation of a structure, Jayce would work for Rocco.  Rocco is the head of operations for the most important department in the business.  In corporate terms he would be a Vice President level reporting to Thad who is a SVP/GM who "leads all facets of baseball operations" according to his MLB.com bio. 

I will grant that Rocco is not listed anywhere on the Twins.com front office directory, which is a fascinating read but he has the positional authority on the same level as Daniel Adler or Sean Johnson.   They probably just list the coaches elsewhere because its sports but he is the room.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office

I'm also fascinated by taking this list of people and putting them on a Visio flow chart and trying to work out the actual reporting structure.  Probably not very fascinating to most but I'm that kind of nerd. 

[August J Gloop]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't mind Rocco, but I'd take Joe Maddon over him 10 out of 10 times. But we're not here to discuss outside options so we can leave that there. Probably wasn't necessary for me to even bring up in the first place.

I disagree that the results should always feel predetermined, though. Well, maybe I mean they shouldn't feel THAT predetermined. I don't believe Joe Ryan would've faced Alvarez even if he'd gone 11 up, 11 down. I don't think he'd even have gotten the chance to go 11 for 11 because they prefer relievers come in with a clean situation so they would've started the 4th with Thielbar facing the top of the order. I could certainly be wrong, and maybe there was a scenario that Ryan could've been allowed to go through the order a second time if he was throwing a no-no. 

Maybe the best way to describe it is that the predetermined plans are just too broad, or basic. What if Ryan had gone 10 up, 9 down, with the 1 HR, would Rocco have left him in? Was Rocco taking into account Ryan's pitch data? Batted ball data? Was it simply runs given up? Hits given up? Ks? BBs? I don't believe that Rocco was taking all that into account when he pulled Joe Ryan. I think it was far more basic than that. I think Joe Ryan was going to go once through the order and they were turning it over to the bullpen. I don't think they trusted Ryan to not have a blowup inning and they weren't going to take the chance. They wanted once through the order and he was done. He got through 8 guys and that triggered the "out." The "multiple outs" were 2 innings, 3 innings, or he's terrible and doesn't even make it 2. That is too predetermined. If there's not a situation that would've allowed him to go 4+ innings it's too predetermined for my liking. And this isn't just Rocco/the Twins. The Blue Jays ended their season by doing the same thing with Berrios. Very narrowly defined options based on FO data, and determined before the first cleat steps foot on the rubber, is how many, if not most, teams run now. And I think it's the wrong way to do things.

But did you look at the data? In two innings Joe gave up 4 hard hit balls, including one that hit him on his body. It's very likely that they wanted him to get through 3 innings vs two, but 3 was definitely the plan, and when that third was going to feature Altuve and Bregman, it was time for Joe to go out. I would argue that was a direct result not of some front office machinations or Rocco being under the sway of spreadsheets, but of Joe Ryan hiding an injury and being reasonably ineffective the back half of the year.  That lead to him not being fully prepped for a longer start. Even in the  start he wobbled through the lineup once. I'm certain the hope was to win the game and ultimately the series and have a shot at building Joe up in later starts. 

An elimination game is not the time to be like 'go gettim Joe'. 

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I wouldn't think Jayce would be at all.  In my estimation of a structure, Jayce would work for Rocco.  Rocco is the head of operations for the most important department in the business.  In corporate terms he would be a Vice President level reporting to Thad who is a SVP/GM who "leads all facets of baseball operations" according to his MLB.com bio. 

I will grant that Rocco is not listed anywhere on the Twins.com front office directory, which is a fascinating read but he has the positional authority on the same level as Daniel Adler or Sean Johnson.   They probably just list the coaches elsewhere because its sports but he is the room.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office

I'm also fascinated by taking this list of people and putting them on a Visio flow chart and trying to work out the actual reporting structure.  Probably not very fascinating to most but I'm that kind of nerd. 

I wasn't suggesting that Jayce would be, I was suggesting that Jayce, Rocco's right hand man, separated Rocco and the FO in that interview which is a pretty clear indication that Rocco is not part of the FO.

Rocco is in some rooms, yes. Nobody is denying that. Our concerns aren't about Rocco going upstairs, it's about the upstairs people going downstairs. There has to be some level of partnership between the FO and the coaching staff. What we have concerns with is that the level of input the FO has in coaching decisions. KOC needs to let Kwesi know what type of players fit his system, but Kwesi shouldn't be telling KOC what type of system to run. Some of us have concerns that those lines are, or are becoming, too blurred with the Twins (and many other baseball orgs).

It has become far more about the people in the FO coming up with a plan for how to win baseball games, devising a plan to accumulate certain players, and then dictating (or at least that's our fear) how those players are deployed in games. Because of that process managers have less control, and some of us don't like that. The platoon strategy deployed by the Twins this year wasn't, in my opinion, Rocco sitting down and looking at the roster he was given and deciding to platoon guys. It was the plan devised by the FO to best maximize things due to their perceived limitations in how good of players they can accumulate.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

But did you look at the data? In two innings Joe gave up 4 hard hit balls, including one that hit him on his body. It's very likely that they wanted him to get through 3 innings vs two, but 3 was definitely the plan, and when that third was going to feature Altuve and Bregman, it was time for Joe to go out. I would argue that was a direct result not of some front office machinations or Rocco being under the sway of spreadsheets, but of Joe Ryan hiding an injury and being reasonably ineffective the back half of the year.  That lead to him not being fully prepped for a longer start. Even in the  start he wobbled through the lineup once. I'm certain the hope was to win the game and ultimately the series and have a shot at building Joe up in later starts. 

An elimination game is not the time to be like 'go gettim Joe'. 

I haven't voiced any opinions on whether pulling Joe was the right or wrong decision (at least I haven't meant to). My entire complaint is "the plan" and how large the possibility of veering off it is. I want no part of short start plans determined before the pitcher takes the mound. None. You should go into every game knowing who your long guy out of the pen is, or if you're going with a bunch of 1 inning guys, etc. but the idea that "3 was definitely the plan" is a problem to me. We don't need to get into the psychology of it, but having Rocco already anticipating pulling Joe early puts him in an extra cautious position before Joe even warms up for the game. I have to imagine the Blue Jays manager was feeling all sorts of things when they got through the 4th and Berrios was cruising but "the plan" called for a shift to the lefty to get Rocco to make moves. I bet if that wasn't a predetermined plan with very limited options for Berrios being able to go longer he goes out for the 5th, and there's a pretty decent chance Joe Ryan is starting game 3 of the WC round instead of game 4 of the ALDS. 

I've never suggested they should've been like 'go gettim Joe,' I've simply said they shouldn't have predetermined that he wasn't getting past the 3rd. And this is all about much more than just that 1 game. It's about their general struggles (in my opinion) with getting off "the plan" for entire seasons. There's some need in many of the analytically driven plans to gain a decent sample size before changes can be made, but there are times for quicker decisions. Forcing their young lefties into extreme platoon situations stops you from ever gaining the sample size needed to even know if that is a good strategy, and can become a self-fulfilling prophecy when they struggle against lefties in their limited opportunities. Sticking with Gallo for way, way, way, way, way too long because the plan was to have optimal depth for the entire year even if it meant playing a horrible player is a problem, to me at least. It's not just about that game, it's about their general lack of ability to make quick adjustments based on what's actually happening, and not their estimated outcomes.

The playoffs are a very small sample size. The platooning, short starts, extra rest, etc. etc. etc. big picture strategies the Twins deploy for 162 games are designed to work over the long run. You aren't expecting your pinch hitter, platoon moves to work every time, you just expect them to work more often than not over a 162 game sample. The ALDS isn't a 162 game sample, it's a 5 game sample, max. Part of the problem with the extreme platoon strategy is that it forces you to use it in the playoffs when it's not an effective strategy because you've limited your guys for 162 games and you've made it so the chances of the lefties succeeding against playoff lefties is even smaller because they only got 50 PAs randomly spread over 6 months against lefties. The playoffs are about your best beating their best. If you can't leave your leadoff hitter, and/or 5 hole hitter, in the game because a lefty came in you've already doomed yourself. It's not about just Joe Ryan. Or just the ALDS. Or even just 2023. This is a team built almost entirely around the idea that they can win by taking lesser pieces and mixing and matching them effectively enough over the long haul to win more than they lose. That isn't a recipe for winning championships. At least I haven't seen it work yet.

[August J Gloop]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I haven't voiced any opinions on whether pulling Joe was the right or wrong decision (at least I haven't meant to). My entire complaint is "the plan" and how large the possibility of veering off it is. I want no part of short start plans determined before the pitcher takes the mound. None.

Why not? What is wrong with telling someone who hasn't thrown a single inning in two weeks, nor a successful start in over a month that he's out there to face that brutal lineup once. Let him know he can air it out for a max of 3 innings hopefully 9 batters and get out of there with a 0? How is that a bad plan in that situation? If Sunny hadn't laid the egg the day before it wouldn't have been the plan. They would have been running ahead and said Joe give us a good start, 5-6 please. And then if he'd looked shaky they'd adjust. But they knew it would be a tall order in the tough sitch and set him up to succeed. And in the end the plan basically worked. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

Why not? What is wrong with telling someone who hasn't thrown a single inning in two weeks, nor a successful start in over a month that he's out there to face that brutal lineup once. Let him know he can air it out for a max of 3 innings hopefully 9 batters and get out of there with a 0? How is that a bad plan in that situation? If Sunny hadn't laid the egg the day before it wouldn't have been the plan. They would have been running ahead and said Joe give us a good start, 5-6 please. And then if he'd looked shaky they'd adjust. But they knew it would be a tall order in the tough sitch and set him up to succeed. And in the end the plan basically worked. 

I'm going a little out of order here, but why would Sonny's performance matter? It's the playoffs, and they were going to face Verlander in game 5 with the season on the line if they lost game 4 (after Sonny won game 3 in this hypothetical). If Joe Ryan only going through the order once was the best chance to win why would you have a different plan depending on Sonny's performance?

Ryan went 6 innings, 1 earned against Texas in September. 4.2, 2 earned against Tampa. 6 innings, 2 earned against LA, with 10 Ks. None of those were successful starts? Dang, tough crowd. If Joe Ryan was so untrustworthy why would you have him lined up for game 3 of the WC round with your season on the line? If they were just going off recent performance why didn't they line Ober up for that start? Or Kenta? Was it because they came up with a plan well ahead of time and didn't adjust to what was actually taking place on the field? The more pitchers you use in a game, the more have to be good. That's why it's a bad plan. One of the other guys wasn't good and that's all it took. 

But, again, it isn't about just that game. Predetermined plans without any realistic way of adjusting them are a bad strategy. It was fascinating to see 2 predetermined plans come together in the Berrios start. One had to fail, and I'm glad it was the Jays. The Blake Snell WS start is one that gets thrown out a lot. Predetermined that he'd go twice through the order without any real way of changing that and the bullpen was bad and it cost them a championship. The counterpoint being the Harvey WS start where they left him in and he lost it. But at least that decision was "made" by the player's performance that day, and not what the computer predicted might happen. I'm an analytics guy. Teams need to use them. But handcuffing yourself to them in a way that takes away your ability to make real time changes is a bad use of analytics.

[jdgoin]

Tingler didn't say anything of any consequence. They have at least 6 people on top of the coaching staff to help with disseminating information and put together game plans. I would believe some combo of Derek and/or Thad are talking with them multiple times per day. Many front office staff are now meeting the manager/coaches before and after the game. The manager and front office is more of a partnership now than it has ever been in most orgs.