How Sonny Gray Turned the Corner

[Matthew Trueblood]

If you don’t look closely enough, you’ll miss it. The differences between Sonny Gray’s 2022 and 2023 seasons are so subtle that you could fool yourself into thinking he’s the same guy, only healthier. It ain’t so.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Last December, I wrote about Sonny Gray and the Twins’ persistent problem with seizing the platoon advantage on the mound. We discussed the two distinct pitchers living within Gray, because every pitcher needs to have a bifurcated approach with which they can succeed against two very different opponents: left- and right-handed batters. At the time, as I wrote, he was largely a two-pitch pitcher against lefties, and only a little more than that against righties. He worked, mostly, north and south, and he got plenty of strikeouts but was somewhat vulnerable to power.

By now, everyone has heard about Gray’s embrace of the sweeper, which is the same pitch that has transmogrified Pablo Lopez into an ace. Last week, our Parker Hageman delivered a deep dive on Lopez, with heavy emphasis on that sweeper and its unique utility. As Parker shared, Lopez’s breakthrough came when the Twins helped him understand that throwing a good sweeper doesn’t require the same hand or wrist action–the same manipulation of the baseball–as a typical slider.

Much of the magic of the sweeper lies in the confluence of grip and arm angle. That allows a pitcher to add it to their suite of breaking balls without cannibalizing the rest of the set, as often happened in the past when a hurler who specialized in either the curve or the slider tried to mix in the other.

After a year of tinkering and blending it in with his former, truer slider, Gray has made the full conversion to the sweeper in 2023. It’s been a smashing success. Gray has achieved:

• A swing rate of 54.3 percent on sweepers (7th-best of 98 pitchers who have thrown at least 200 sweepers)
• A Whiff rate (as a percentage of swings) of 41.8 percent (19th)
• A Called Strike Probability (an estimate of a pitcher’s tendency to be around the zone with a pitch, expressed as the chances that an average pitch in the sample would be called a strike if the batter doesn’t swing) of 30 percent (97th on the aforementioned list of 98)

He’s getting a lot of chases on the offering, and many of those swings are coming up empty. The sweeper has been a lethal weapon for Gray. Note that hitters are waving at it often, despite the fact that it’s rarely even especially close to the strike zone by the time it arrives at home plate.

That doesn’t make sense. Usually, especially with a breaking ball, a pitcher has to establish both an ability and a willingness to land the ball in the strike zone, to induce hitters to take the bat off their shoulders. Gray isn’t around the zone with the sweeper very much at all, but he’s getting an above-average swing rate against it, anyway. How?

Unfortunately, the deep-dive into this topic is for Caretakers only. We need to reserve this deep-dive content for Caretakers because these types of stories cost more to produce, and Caretakers support them. So if you're a Caretaker, just scroll down. If you're not, maybe consider becoming a Caretaker? There are lots of other benefits, like a free Winter Meltdown ticket and early access for guests, special callouts on the site, and lots more inside or in-depth content like this. So please consider joining our little club. The money is going to a site you love, to support coverage you love, and writers you value. Thank you so much.  

View full article

[Dman]

That was very informative. Really appreciate the work put in on the article.  Thanks for the great read!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Incredible amount of information in this article. Thank you for your attention to detail. Fascinating.

[JD-TWINS]

Couldn’t force myself to read everything but well put together! Details!

My question is, if the TWINS are fortunate enough to get to the ALCS, do we try to bring back the same group & make Gray a real offer? An offer something like 25% north of the qualifying offer of approximately $20M. So $25M/year for 2 years for him to stay settled with his family in MN …….with a very competitive club. He wants to win!!

$25M is what we’re paying him & Mahle combined this year - no big budget increase.

With players we have coming up and with the veterans we have in place, I don’t see us spending on any new position players. I don’t know where a new guy would fit with what we have coming back?

IMO we proved this year that we can piece together 12-13 guys in the Pen to cover needs through the year & still have a solid playoff group. This year may be a little better than we can expect going forward BUT I still don’t see us spending on relievers, outside of our current group.

Gray is an anchor on our staff now & his attitude/fire would carry a lot of juice going forward. We need to see Ryan-Ober-Paddack prove themselves over a full season before we have one of them taking up Gray’s slack.

Sonny Gray a Twin in ‘24?

[HoskenPowell]

Go Twins!!!!   Packed house , lots of noise and positive vibes!!!!!

[terrydactyls]

16 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Couldn’t force myself to read everything but well put together! Details!

My question is, if the TWINS are fortunate enough to get to the ALCS, do we try to bring back the same group & make Gray a real offer? An offer something like 25% north of the qualifying offer of approximately $20M. So $25M/year for 2 years for him to stay settled with his family in MN …….with a very competitive club. He wants to win!!

$25M is what we’re paying him & Mahle combined this year - no big budget increase.

With players we have coming up and with the veterans we have in place, I don’t see us spending on any new position players. I don’t know where a new guy would fit with what we have coming back?

IMO we proved this year that we can piece together 12-13 guys in the Pen to cover needs through the year & still have a solid playoff group. This year may be a little better than we can expect going forward BUT I still don’t see us spending on relievers, outside of our current group.

Gray is an anchor on our staff now & his attitude/fire would carry a lot of juice going forward. We need to see Ryan-Ober-Paddack prove themselves over a full season before we have one of them taking up Gray’s slack.

Sonny Gray a Twin in ‘24?

I was thinking about this a couple of days ago, but a little more long term.  Here is my idea.  The Twins offer Gray a 4-year, $90M contract that pays him $30M in 2024, $25M in 2025, $20M in 2026, and $15M in 2027 with buyouts in both 2026 and 2027.   By 2026 and 2027, those salaries will probably be the norm for a #4 or #5 starter.  This would give the Twins a base group of starters of Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober, and Varland for the next few years.  With the position players the Twins already have locked up for the next five years (more or less), they should be able to be a serious World Series contender during that time.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Wow.  What a deep dive into a fine pitcher!  I think that one of the biggest turnabouts over Twins starting staffs of the past would be the analytical piece of the equation.  I feel like there was a time when it was just “see ball” “throw ball” and that has certainly changed a great deal.  Good luck today Sonny!  Go Twins!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

It surely is nice to be October and discussing the Twins playoff games and not discussing the June 2024 draft.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

It surely is nice to be October and discussing the Twins playoff games and not discussing the June 2024 draft.

It's alot better discussing positivity  and not negativity  ...

Go Twins  ...

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I wasn't able to read the full analytics of it.  If Gray continues to perform it is going to put pressure on the Twins.  It would make you want to try to run it out again,  while at the same time increasing the contract Gray gets with every successful playoff start.   The extension for Pablo looks like pure gold right now.  I think you are easily looking at 70 to 80 million on a 3-4 year contract for Gray that could get as high as 90 million.  

If he walks the Twins will get a comp pick at the end of the first round.  2 years of Gray,  a good run in the playoffs possibly even more and another late 1st round draft pick for Petty seems like a dream scenario.   

You know the Twins are comfortable with what Gray is and are comfortable with his performance and know he can be an extremely strong 1B pitcher to Lopez 1A.  I fear his velocity is right on the precipice of greatly hindering his performance.  In 2016  he was average 94-95 MPH.  It is now down to 92.9.    I think as it continues to decline to lower 92 to 91, even with more horizontal and vertical manipulation, that the hard hit rates are going to start popping back up.  With as many runners that Sonny has been stranding on the base paths, if that occurs at inopportune times his ERA could be significantly higher.   As much as I love Sonny for this year and what he is doing and want it to continue this playoff run, the best thing for the Twins would be to let him walk, and find another undervalued pitcher that is considered very good that they think they can make into great.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

It's alot better discussing positivity  and not negativity  ...

Go Twins  ...

After watching today's 9 to 1 loss to Houston, I have one question:  "When does the 2024 draft take place?"