Souhan: Free Agent Pitchers Not The Answer

[jokin]

Capps became a free agent because he was non tendered. He was under team control, but a last place team released him.

 

The Giants reached success because of their prospects and in spite of giving bad contracts to Zito and Rowand. It is hard to believe this has to be argued.

 

Jackson... I argued earlier about him. Read the post. Washington added him after 2011. They were a .500 team. The foundation was set. I would advocate the same for the Twins. Build the foundation and then sign free agents.

 

My suggested approach...

 

Build the system. Meanwhile go young in the majors. Once the foundation is ready add free agents.

 

The 1987-1991 run was built on the foundation of very young teams in 1981-1984.

 

The 2002-2010 was built on the foundation of very young teams in 1999-2000. Compare the 1998 roster with the 1999. Look at the contrast in ages and direction by the front office.

 

There is only one way out of this hole. The Twins can't buy there way out.

 

Except the Giants also continued to strike gold in Free Agency while their prospects were developing. So it was a joint, big picture approach to building for success, not an "in spite of" approach. The club was undeterred by the FAs they struck out on, heck, they signed Randy Johnson at the end of his career, too. It's hard to believe that this has to be argued.

 

As far as the Twins go....their foundation is being established and has been recognized by outside baseball experts as having one of the strongest groups of talent out there. You apparently are proposing that since most of these "foundation" guys are still in A ball, that the Twins wait at least 2 more years to call them up, dump the remaing veterans, including Mauer, and then endure 2-4 more years for the "foundation" to be "ready" to add FAs. That would put the club on pace for around 2018 to making a serious effort at signing the necessary FA pieces. Maybe they could go back after Mauer at that point, signing him as a FA off of Boston or whoever, as his contract expires....?

 

I would strongly argue that there are more approaches than just your opined "only way" for digging out of this hole. There are real-time examples to prove as such.

[jorgenswest]

I do agree that Washington as a model. They had prolonged struggle and worked their way out. The earlier runs by the Twins are also model with at least three years of 70 or less wins.

 

I will leave this discussion with a question that I hope to study.

 

How do teams go from prolonged losing (3 years+) to success (or continued failure)? It will be easy to look at age and determine if the teams went young or added veterans. It will be easy to see free agent acquisitions.

 

I wonder how many occurrences of a three year stretch of 70 or less wins the Twins are likely to put up have occurred in the era of free agency. The Twins have two other such streaks.

[nicksaviking]

 

On the other hand, Souhan details all the pitching they have acquired and just how darn good they have been at getting minor league pitchers that eventually had a great deal of success.

 

Aside from Johan Santana, I think the word "Great" should be dropped from that sentence. Terry Ryan has gotten some pitchers who have had success but guys like Milton, Mays and Liriano have not been great, and surely not for very long if they were at all. Considering this team does not draft pitchers well and it refuses to sign quality free agent pitchers, it is essential for Ryan to trade for young sustainable top of the rotation arms. He's done that once. I wouldn't call that great.

[jokin]

I do agree that Washington as a model. They had prolonged struggle and worked their way out. The earlier runs by the Twins are also model with at least three years of 70 or less wins.

 

I will leave this discussion with a question that I hope to study.

 

How do teams go from prolonged losing (3 years+) to success (or continued failure)? It will be easy to look at age and determine if the teams went young or added veterans. It will be easy to see free agent acquisitions.

 

I wonder how many occurrences of a three year stretch of 70 or less wins the Twins are likely to put up have occurred in the era of free agency. The Twins have two other such streaks.

 

Washington had a prolonged honeymoon as a new club returning at long last, Major League baseball to the city, starting as a resurrected corpse that was the Montreal Expos. No promises to be held accountable for, you had a very forgiving and/or disinterested fanbase, coupled with the eventual groundswell of excitement generated around building a new ballpark- and not the franchise per se or the existing players- this gave the Nats plenty of time to take the patient approach. The Twins of the last 10 years bear no resemblance to this model.

[old nurse]

Except the Giants also continued to strike gold in Free Agency while their prospects were developing. So it was a joint, big picture approach to building for success, not an "in spite of" approach. The club was undeterred by the FAs they struck out on, heck, they signed Randy Johnson at the end of his career, too. It's hard to believe that this has to be argued.

 

As far as the Twins go....their foundation is being established and has been recognized by outside baseball experts as having one of the strongest groups of talent out there. You apparently are proposing that since most of these "foundation" guys are still in A ball, that the Twins wait at least 2 more years to call them up, dump the remaing veterans, including Mauer, and then endure 2-4 more years for the "foundation" to be "ready" to add FAs. That would put the club on pace for around 2018 to making a serious effort at signing the necessary FA pieces. Maybe they could go back after Mauer at that point, signing him as a FA off of Boston or whoever, as his contract expires....?

 

I would strongly argue that there are more approaches than just your opined "only way" for digging out of this hole. There are real-time examples to prove as such.

 

Over the last six years Renteria, Rowland and Zito were San Francisco's big signings. Everyone else came cheaply and were resigned when they performed. If the Twins sign players cheaply they are called dumpster diving.

[drjim]

Because the Twins' way of using the free agent market under Ryan (bottom feeding with marginal MLB pitchers and MiLB FAs) is not working, it does not mean that it cannot work.

 

The FA market was used pretty well under MacPhail, IIRC but he was not bottom feeding, bringing players like Morris, Bedrosian etc. If you bottom feed you will fail. Spendthrift Ryan's way is not working. Not Free Agency.

 

Luckily free agency hasn't changed in 25the years so I can see how this comparison is even somewhat relevant.

[TheLeviathan]

Over the last six years Renteria, Rowland and Zito were San Francisco's big signings. Everyone else came cheaply and were resigned when they performed. If the Twins sign players cheaply they are called dumpster diving.

 

Well, if all you do is sign cheap and you never splash - then yes, you are dumpster diving.

[Guest USAFChief]

Over the last six years Renteria, Rowland and Zito were San Francisco's big signings. Everyone else came cheaply and were resigned when they performed. If the Twins sign players cheaply they are called dumpster diving.

One could argue, as others have, that San Francisco is an example of how signing expensive FAs that haven't been stellar doesn't preclude you from also bringing up your minor leaguers, signing inexpensive free agents, making trades, picking up the occasional rule 5 guy, making waiver claims, and having a successful team.

 

They seem to, as others have said, used all available avenues to acquire talent, rather than ruling any out. And as it turns out, bad contracts on their books haven't prevented success. They even got a decent season out of Zito in year 6 of that 7 year contract.

[old nurse]

Well, if all you do is sign cheap and you never splash - then yes, you are dumpster diving.

So then San Francisco signed bad large contracts and dumpster dived and that is the model that was suggested for the Twins to follow.

[old nurse]

One could argue, as others have, that San Francisco is an example of how signing expensive FAs that haven't been stellar doesn't preclude you from also bringing up your minor leaguers, signing inexpensive free agents, making trades, picking up the occasional rule 5 guy, making waiver claims, and having a successful team.

 

They seem to, as others have said, used all available avenues to acquire talent, rather than ruling any out. And as it turns out, bad contracts on their books haven't prevented success. They even got a decent season out of Zito in year 6 of that 7 year contract.

And the Twins have done all of the avenues except sign a free agent to a seven year contract that they got one good year out of.

[Guest USAFChief]

And the Twins have done all of the avenues except sign a free agent to a seven year contract that they got one good year out of.

Zito hasn't been great, by any means, and hasn't given them "value" for the money. So what? He has given them around 1000 IP over that time frame, double digit wins in 4 of the first 6 yrs, and is still adding to those numbers in the last yr of his contract.

 

The point being, he hasn't been nearly the disaster some people want to make him out to be. In fact, he's been an integral part of a successful rotation for half a decade, at the cost of only money, something the Twins have available by the fistful.

[jokin]

So then San Francisco signed bad large contracts and dumpster dived and that is the model that was suggested for the Twins to follow.

 

Nope. Wrong as usual.

 

I've documented this elsewhere. Since 07:

 

Barry Zito

Bengie Molina

Rich Aurilia

Dave Roberts

Aaron Rowand

Jeremy Affeldt

Randy Johnson

Edgar Renteria

Juan Uribe

Mark DeRosa

Aubrey Huff

Javier Lopez (deadline trade, xtnd with big raise)

Miguel Tejada

Ryan Vogelsong (best dumpster acquisition ever? re-signed big $$$)

Melky Cabrera (via trade, raised salary to 1 yr @ $6M)

Angel Pagan (via trade on Mets salary dump, re-signed both Pagan for big bucks- 3yrs/$31.75M, and then re-signed the 2 players in the original trade w/ Mets!, Torrez & Ramirez)

Hunter Pence (de facto FA- via salary dump trade for 3 minor league non-prospects, Giants took on prorated $10.4M + $13.8M in 2013)

Marco Scutaro (de facto FA- via salary dump trade for 1 minor leaguer, Giants accept prorated $6M + re-upped for 3yrs./$20M)

 

Some good, some bad. Some supposedly "crippling". Giants still succussful over the similar time frame and payroll model as the Twins- and they took on other risks like in the fact that they bought out arb years and re-signed some of their best players, as well.

[jokin]

And the Twins have done all of the avenues except sign a free agent to a seven year contract that they got one good year out of.

 

Is it an intentional act on your part to so consistently completely miss the point of the counter-argument?

[TheLeviathan]

So then San Francisco signed bad large contracts and dumpster dived and that is the model that was suggested for the Twins to follow.

 

Is this trolling? Again, the idea is not to shut off options. The Giants made some poor big investments, but they were still willing to make big investments. They were also willing to deal top prospects for big additions. Both of which I'd like this club be WILLING to do. I wouldn't close off those options.

 

Have I restated this in enough ways that you won't miss the point this time?

[Rosterman]

The Twins, still, fall into a category of team closer to, say, the Oakland A's...then anyone else who has won a pennant. Look at the turnover on the A's roster. They bring guys up. The trade players away when they are on the cusp, or have a good season. In keeping with the A's-look, the Twins would've flipped Young after his super year. Willingham would've been major tradebait this winter and thru spring training. They would be looking hard at Benson and figuring out a way to increase his value (start him, say, at AA) then letting him suck marbles at AAA. You'd be looking at prospects to package for pre-arbitration players, like Hermsen, who supposedly doesn't have a fly's butt chance of ever making the team, and packaging him with, say, Carroll tio a team needing infielder backup help and might trade a fifth starter, which may be better than the 26th or 41st player the Twins are already going after.

 

At some point, the Twins need to sign a short-term A-level pitcher (Morris) or a long-term body (Grienke). I'm sorry, Baker, Radke...they just aren't top of the line guys. You might develop them...but are they in the system and will they pan out.

 

And sometimes you re-sign your own free agents (Nathan, Kubel) for marketrate or above with the hopes of trading them away (of course, Pavano and Capps shoudl've got us a B- prospect...so you win some, lose some).

 

No one says being a general manager is an easy job. But the Twins do have money to spend, wisely and, even, stupidly perhaps. They have to advance to that next level where they play ALL the player games. The business man Smith didn't pan out. The grizzled veteran scout isn't keeping up with the times.

 

Maybe what ownership and management need is a tremendous loss of butts in the sets (yes, pre-sell is still good for the year, but when those folks would rather be somewhere else than come to a game where they already got a ticket, it WILL hit home in reduced concessions and all).

 

Be interesting to see how many of the 20+ free-agent pitchers on the lowend the Twins signed this year actually stick around to play again...here or anywhere else. Seems a lot are getting some nice Florida sunshine and rehab monies from a team hopeful for a breathing body.

[Mr. Brooks]

So then San Francisco signed bad large contracts and dumpster dived and that is the model that was suggested for the Twins to follow.

 

I believe the point is that it doesn't have to cripple you if you sign a bad massive FA pitcher contract.

I really don't see this as being very complicated or hard to understand.

[jokin]

I believe the point is that it doesn't have to cripple you if you sign a bad massive FA pitcher contract.

I really don't see this as being very complicated or hard to understand.

 

Or an additional bad massive FA position player contract....yeah, those 2 contracts were really "crippling"...

[Highabove]

On February 5 of 1991, Andy Macphail signed Jack Morris to a free agent contract of 3.7 million dollars which also included his bonus. This contract was 80% higher then anything he had received in Detroit. In 1991, Jack Morris had the 5th highest contract in Baseball. The rest is history.

Would Ryan had made this deal?? Would we have had the same outcome with one of his dumpster dive deals?

[Mr. Brooks]

On February 5 of 1991, Andy Macphail signed Jack Morris to a free agent contract of 3.7 million dollars which also included his bonus. This contract was 80% higher then anything he had received in Detroit. In 1991, Jack Morris had the 5th highest contract in Baseball The rest is history.

Would Ryan had made this deal?? Would we have had the same outcome with one of his dumpster dive deals?

 

No, he would not. And if he had during one of our playoff years, we might have another banner hanging up.

[johnnydakota]

I don't think that the Twins have THAT MUCH quality pitching in the minors that acquiring a decent FA starter would block them down the road. That assumes that virtually everyone will pan out.

 

Having to much pitching, hmmm i guess we could always trade 1 for a shortstop or 2b if we ever were in that situation

[johnnydakota]

I don't think it would have been wise to commit to any pitcher a large on contract in 2015. The likelihood is too great that they will not be effective or injured in the third year.

 

Once it narrows down to the guys willing to sign for one or two years, the player still has to choose to sign with the Twins and pitch in front of their poor defense.

 

The Twins have had two successful runs in the last thirty years. In both cases they went very young first 1981-1982 and 1999-2000 and built from there. Look at the cycle from 1993-1998 to see how trying to do both worked out.

 

In fact with the signings of old guys like Willingham, Doumit, Carroll and Correia, I would suggest that are trying to be both competitive while rebuilding. They aren't doing it very well. I would prefer they dump and go young.

 

Yes after all it isint like the team is saving that money to make a run after a championship .So instead of taking a chance on a quality pitcher lets just make a larger profit for ownership

 

FYI Kids born after our last championship are bar hopping now

[johnnydakota]

So then San Francisco signed bad large contracts and dumpster dived and that is the model that was suggested for the Twins to follow.

Kind of like owning a car, while you have to put gas in to make it go , if you dont add oil and transmission fluids , so your car breaks down , just as the twins have .Terry Ryan has down graded every player since his return , refusing to add quality through free agency , and now proclaiming bewilderment as to why we arent leading the division

[Riverbrian]

Kind of like owning a car, while you have to put gas in to make it go , if you dont add oil and transmission fluids , so your car breaks down , just as the twins have .Terry Ryan has down graded every player since his return , refusing to add quality through free agency , and now proclaiming bewilderment as to why we arent leading the division

 

I get your point but I don't think Terry Ryan is proclaiming bewilderment. I think he knows exactly why we are not leading the division.

[cmathewson]

May is more than likely a bullpen arm.

Worley is Nick Blackburn at best.

Revere is nothing special, but we basically gave him away for nothing. In fact if May never reaches the majors, or only does as a middle reliever, we will probably end up getting negative WAR in the trade.

Yuck.

 

It's more than you typically get for a center fielder who will not likely get on base more than a third of the time and who has no power and no arm.

[stringer bell]

The Twins need to acquire pitching from all available avenues. As many have pointed out, they can't close the door on signing free agents. I think the Twins need to explore acquiring high quality arms via trade as the Tigers have done. They wouldn't be trendy picks for the World Series without Sanchez, Fister, and Scherzer. Of course, it would help if they hit big in the draft and also score a major piece via free agency such as Guthrie, Sanchez and Iwakuma.

[TheLeviathan]

The Tigers have acquired so much key talent through trades and free agency it's insane. It makes it even more depressing that those two avenues are the ones Ryan is least comfortable with.

[gunnarthor]

The Tigers have acquired so much key talent through trades and free agency it's insane. It makes it even more depressing that those two avenues are the ones Ryan is least comfortable with.

Ryan is uncomfortable with trades? In his first go around he traded for a multiple cy young winner as well as Mays, Milton, Liriano, Nathan (7 combined all star games), Silva, Boof, Lohse.

 

In his second go around he's already traded for Meyer, May and Worley.

[TheLeviathan]

Ryan is uncomfortable with trades? In his first go around he traded for a multiple cy young winner as well as Mays, Milton, Liriano, Nathan (7 combined all star games), Silva, Boof, Lohse.

 

In his second go around he's already traded for Meyer, May and Worley.

 

He's uncomfortable dealing prospects for established talent - yes. Which is how the Tigers got Scherzer, Miggy, Sanchez, etc.

[The Wise One]

He's uncomfortable dealing prospects for established talent - yes. Which is how the Tigers got Scherzer, Miggy, Sanchez, etc.

 

Scherzer was a prospect they got for dumping Jackson. the Twins should be so lucky as to have the c level talent that Miami wants when they dump players and comes calling

[The Wise One]

Zito hasn't been great, by any means, and hasn't given them "value" for the money. So what? He has given them around 1000 IP over that time frame, double digit wins in 4 of the first 6 yrs, and is still adding to those numbers in the last yr of his contract.

.

The point being, he hasn't been nearly the disaster some people want to make him out to be. In fact, he's been an integral part of a successful rotation for half a decade, at the cost of only money, something the Twins have available by the fistful.

Wins are a team stat, but if double digit wins in 4 of the last 6 years is a yardstick for being an integral part of the team then Zito=Correia

By your thought process signing a free agent is not a bad thing as it only costs money. Then there should be no criticism of the Twins off season signings as it costs them nothing but money that they have in fistfuls. Praise should be heaped on them as this could encourage them to spend more. Granted they can't spend as much as the Giants as they have 40 million less in revenue. The idea of spending money regardless of the value in return for which it was spent on is a curious one to me though. It does fly in the face of sound business and personal finance. It does though sound like government spending