Souhan: Free Agent Pitchers Not The Answer

[Mr. Brooks]

Given that Revere has a .561 OPS, I think it's safe to say that it hasn't panned out for Philly.

 

After 2 months huh?

It's an incomplete so far for both teams. Nothing more, nothing less.

[TheLeviathan]

Guys willing to sign for one or two years are generally garbage players. Especially pitchers. Now you might find some luck with hitters that way, but far less likely pitchers.

 

I would argue our 2000 core would've benefited GREATLY from two well timed FA signings. (A legit middle of the order bat where they had 1B/DH open at times during the run and another very good SP)

[TheLeviathan]

\Washington did have some very poor years and went young. I found two free agent pitcher signings in that range. They signed Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis. Sounds like the Twins to me.

 

How about Jayson Werth? Signing Matt Capps and flipping him into Wilson Ramos?

 

They did sign Edwin Jackson and trade for Gio Gonzalez prior to 2012 but they already had a foundation of a .500 team at that point.

 

Our foundation is closer than you think. Why not get ahead of the game at MASSIVE areas of need?

 

As for Atlanta, they were a 72 win team and then went out and got Vasquez, Derek Lowe, and others to help their team.

 

No matter how you shake it, utterly ignoring the FA market is absurd.

[jokin]

If you worry about prospect development with handing out contracts you're making a number of mistakes:

 

1) Prospects fail. All the time. Even elite ones. Worry about what they will earn in 6-7 years is nothing more than shooting in the dark. You have no idea and planning for something you can't predict and can't control is a horrible way to make decisions.

 

2) Going "all-in" is a popular phrase but rarely works. Most teams that go after that one or two big names to help their team usually have to sacrifice prospects, not money. So then it defeats the very thing you're talking about and only marginally increases your chances.

 

You are far better off to add talent at positions of need when you have the resources to do it and let the future chips fall where they may. That doesn't mean you buy an entire rotation or half your roster, but you do go after a few big additions that can supplement what you want your roster to look like.

 

Again, St. Louis and Atlanta are OUTSTANDING examples of the right model. Washington too. One, two, or three FA contracts are not going to cripple you if you stagger when you sign them and the value you place on them. Completely omitting one major way of adding talent just seems ludicrious on the face of it.

 

I documented that the Giants were in a similar place as the Twins just a few years ago, they have also done perhaps the best in taking the big picture approach model. They've made a mistake or two on big-name FAs without crippling the franchise in the process. Exactly the opposite of what the Twins have done.

[jokin]

 

 

 

1) Our foundation is closer than you think. Why not get ahead of the game at MASSIVE areas of need?

 

 

2) No matter how you shake it, utterly ignoring the FA market is absurd.

 

This! For the life of me, how are these obvious points even debatable?

[TheLeviathan]

I documented that the Giants were in a similar place as the Twins just a few years ago, they have also done perhaps the best in taking the big picture approach model. They've made a mistake or two on big-name FAs without crippling the franchise in the process. Exactly the opposite of what the Twins have done.

 

I never thought about the Giants, but you're right. They whiffed with Rowand and others, but it was the right idea.

[jokin]

After 2 months huh?

It's an incomplete so far for both teams. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

These are the same people that pronounced the Angels offseason as a complete flop after the first month of the season. (LA is currently on an 8 game winning streak as their bigger-name players are beginning to produce at rather predictable career rates of production)

 

FWIW, after today, Revere for the month of May is now slashing at: .333/.377/.383. That SSS argument means as much in terms of evaluating the trade as what the original poster proffered. IE, nothing.

[jorgenswest]

Missed the Jason Werth signing as I looked at pitchers, though I don't think many would say that was a good signing.

 

I saw Capps and his 5.96 ERA prior to signing and inexpensive contract. Do you want the Twins to sign more guys like Capps prior to 2010? Is he their best example of who he Twins need to look for in a free agent pitcher? So I guess if only the Twins would sign guys like Hernandez, Marquis and Capps they can return to a competitive team like Washington.

 

As for the Braves, do I really need to point out how different their roster was following the 2008 season? Look at all the guys 24-28 on that roster already successful in the majors. If you think the 2012 Twins are a comp to that team, then you are correct... The Twins are closer than I think.

[jokin]

I never thought about the Giants, but you're right. They whiffed with Rowand and others, but it was the right idea.

 

Rowand and Zito at the top of the whiff list, yet 2 World Series to show for their alleged "risky and franchise-crippling" lack of prudence and foresight. Their payrolls essentially match the Twins until very recently, and even now is only in the $130M+ range- a number that could easily be justified is within shooting distance for the Twins "devote 50% of revenues to payroll model" claim- with a full ballpark nightly and the new TV deal.

[Guest USAFChief]

I don't think it would have been wise to commit to any pitcher a large on contract in 2015. The likelihood is too great that they will not be effective or injured in the third year.

 

 

Money isn't an issue for the Twins now, and it won't be an issue in the mid term future.

 

The only risk is that the Twins might have a pitcher or two getting paid a lot of money not to pitch. That would have exactly zero impact on the 2015 team. The only impact it would have would be on the Pohlad's bottom line.

[TheLeviathan]

Missed the Jason Werth signing as I looked at pitchers, though I don't think many would say that was a good signing.

 

The point was the added a gamer who was productive and fit an area of need. He isn't hurting their bottom line right now and is seen as a team leader. Is he financially hitting to his charge? No, but many players don't. FA signings or not.

 

Is he their best example of who he Twins need to look for in a free agent pitcher?

 

Investing money into potential trade bait. Yes, yes I do. Do you have a more productive way to spend those resources?

 

If you think the 2012 Twins are a comp to that team, then you are correct... The Twins are closer than I think.

 

The point is you don't let losing dictate your pursuit of quality players that can be part of your future. You are so hung up on hamstringing future budgets it's really quite ridiculous. Did Zito and Rowand cripple the Giants?

 

The Twins can afford to sign players and should be addressing minor league shortcomings (see: Pitching) sooner rather than later. Then, hopefully if all goes well with the prospects, we are better prepared to contend sooner.

[jorgenswest]

I never thought about the Giants, but you're right. They whiffed with Rowand and others, but it was the right idea.

 

I concede. As soon as the Twins have young guys ready like Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Posey, Sandoval, Wilson, and Romo ready to go they can open the bank.

[Mr. Brooks]

I concede. As soon as the Twins have young guys ready like Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Posey, Sandoval, Wilson, and Romo ready to go they can open the bank.

 

It seems like the Zito signing was quite a few years ago. Did the Giants have all those guys ready to go at that time, or did they open the bank in anticipation of those guys coming up in the years to come?

[jorgenswest]

The point was the added a gamer who was productive and fit an area of need. He isn't hurting their bottom line right now and is seen as a team leader. Is he financially hitting to his charge? No, but many players don't. FA signings or not.

 

Investing money into potential trade bait. Yes, yes I do. Do you have a more productive way to spend those resources?

 

Wow. I will be clearer. You argued that the Twins need to sign pitchers like Washington (who signed Capps, Hernandez and Marquis). Isn't that exactly who the Twins have signed?

 

That Washington was able to give Capps a cheap contract following a season with an ERA of 5.96 is exactly what the Twins do. He had a career half season and they found someone dumb enough to give up a good prospect.

 

I really don't think these are the kinds of signings you are advocating for the Twins.

 

In all cases mentioned these teams turned themselves around with great prospects. That should be the Twins sole focus.

[Guest USAFChief]

I concede. As soon as the Twins have young guys ready like Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Posey, Sandoval, Wilson, and Romo ready to go they can open the bank.

 

At that point, when all these super prospects the Twins have are "ready," won't you be arguing they can't tie up any money in free agents because all these young superstars are going to need to get paid in a few years?

[jorgenswest]

At that point, when all these super prospects the Twins have are "ready," won't you be arguing they can't tie up any money in free agents because all these young superstars are going to need to get paid in a few years?

 

No. Build the foundation and then add with free agency. Winning will take care of the extra funds needed.

[TheLeviathan]

I concede. As soon as the Twins have young guys ready like Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Posey, Sandoval, Wilson, and Romo ready to go they can open the bank.

 

At the time they signed Rowand, not even half your list was playing for them full-time. Zito, a year prior, even less. So, did you bother to fact check at all?

 

Isn't that exactly who the Twins have signed?

 

Even Matt Capps had more career success than Kevin Correia. You left Edwin Jackson off too.

 

In all cases mentioned these teams turned themselves around with great prospects. That should be the Twins sole focus.

 

You mean...like the mighty Kansas City Royals? Total slash and burn projects like you're suggesting aren't very productive either. I guess we could deal Mauer and everyone else and keep a payroll of 20ish million for a few years. Then, of course, if even a third of our prospects fail and we aren't good enough to "go all in", we can start another 7 year rebuild. Yay!

 

But you're right, your completely one dimensional approach is probably the epitome of wisdom.

[Mr. Brooks]

Wow. I will be clearer. You argued that the Twins need to sign pitchers like Washington (who signed Capps, Hernandez and Marquis). Isn't that exactly who the Twins have signed?

 

That Washington was able to give Capps a cheap contract following a season with an ERA of 5.96 is exactly what the Twins do. He had a career half season and they found someone dumb enough to give up a good prospect.

 

I really don't think these are the kinds of signings you are advocating for the Twins.

 

In all cases mentioned these teams turned themselves around with great prospects. That should be the Twins sole focus.

 

No, that is not what the Twins do.

There is a HUGE difference between signing a guy (giving up nothing except money), then flipping him for a good prospect, and trading a good prospect for a guy, then forfeiting a 1st round pick to re sign him. That is the difference between a well run organization, and a questionably run organization.

The Twins have had opportunities to sell high on guys, and have failed to do so.

[jokin]

At the time they signed Rowand, not even half your list was playing for them full-time. Zito, a year prior, even less. So, did you bother to fact check at all?

 

 

 

Even Matt Capps had more career success than Kevin Correia. You left Edwin Jackson off too.

 

 

 

You mean...like the mighty Kansas City Royals? Total slash and burn projects like you're suggesting aren't very productive either. I guess we could deal Mauer and everyone else and keep a payroll of 20ish million for a few years. Then, of course, if even a third of our prospects fail and we aren't good enough to "go all in", we can start another 7 year rebuild. Yay!

 

But you're right, your completely one dimensional approach is probably the epitome of wisdom.

 

Well-stated.

 

Expect mod recriminations and chastisement to redound upon your PM box soon.

[TheLeviathan]

If it came off as sarcasm that was too biting, I retract my phrasing. But it just baffles me that people advocate utterly ignoring one dimension of adding talent when you only have a few avenues in the first place.

[jokin]

No. Build the foundation and then add with free agency. Winning will take care of the extra funds needed.

 

Or you can do both, as the Giants did, and they still "took care of the extra funds needed" by winning, developing prospects and augmenting with FAs in real time. With Twins-equivalent payrolls. It's a complete real-time refutation of your premise.

[old nurse]

Guys willing to sign for one or two years are generally garbage players. Especially pitchers. Now you might find some luck with hitters that way, but far less likely pitchers.

 

)

 

Couldn't agree with you more. Look at the 4 who signed multi year contracts. None were likely to sign with the Twins unless the offer blew the doors off the competitive bids. You described the rest.

[jokin]

Money isn't an issue for the Twins now, and it won't be an issue in the mid term future.

 

The only risk is that the Twins might have a pitcher or two getting paid a lot of money not to pitch. That would have exactly zero impact on the 2015 team. The only impact it would have would be on the Pohlad's bottom line.

 

Not a conspiracy buff, but why do the FO defenders not see that their only acceptable "perfect scenarios" for turning this thing around actually look and sound like paens and apologias for Ryan and the ownership.

[TheLeviathan]

Couldn't agree with you more. Look at the 4 who signed multi year contracts. None were likely to sign with the Twins unless the offer blew the doors off the competitive bids. You described the rest.

 

Well, to be clear, I think you can gamble with some of those 1-2 year deals. But they can't be your primary FA emphasis.

[jokin]

Couldn't agree with you more. Look at the 4 who signed multi year contracts. None were likely to sign with the Twins unless the offer blew the doors off the competitive bids. You described the rest.

 

Of course, they likely would have whiffed at the top guys- it's simply not in Ryan's nature to ever make a big splash signing, but there were plenty of guys 2 or more levels above Leviathan's refuse and recycle heap that the Twins seem so enamored to- there were, in fact, many flippable and serviceable short-term guys that they could have actively pursued to supplement the rotation, both in the 2012 and 2011 offseasons.

[Kwak]

This discussion happens every year. The Twins will conjure up: overpaying, blocking future prospects, some people fail, can't build the entire team this way, etc. The fans counter with: results failure, ineffective drafts, prospects also fail, need for cornerstones, and more.

[jorgenswest]

At the time they signed Rowand, not even half your list was playing for them full-time. Zito, a year prior, even less. So, did you bother to fact check at all?

 

Even Matt Capps had more career success than Kevin Correia. You left Edwin Jackson off too.

 

Capps became a free agent because he was non tendered. He was under team control, but a last place team released him.

 

The Giants reached success because of their prospects and in spite of giving bad contracts to Zito and Rowand. It is hard to believe this has to be argued.

 

Jackson... I argued earlier about him. Read the post. Washington added him after 2011. They were a .500 team. The foundation was set. I would advocate the same for the Twins. Build the foundation and then sign free agents.

 

My suggested approach...

 

Build the system. Meanwhile go young in the majors. Once the foundation is ready add free agents.

 

The 1987-1991 run was built on the foundation of very young teams in 1981-1984.

 

The 2002-2010 was built on the foundation of very young teams in 1999-2000. Compare the 1998 roster with the 1999. Look at the contrast in ages and direction by the front office.

 

There is only one way out of this hole. The Twins can't buy there way out.

[TheLeviathan]

The Giants reached success because of their prospects and in spite of giving bad contracts to Zito and Rowand. It is hard to believe this has to be argued.

 

You are making a point to miss the point. Your argument was that FA deals cripple teams. My point was that they don't. Not that Rowand and Zito lead them to a WS, but that their signings didn't prevent them from doing so. Cmon, please keep up with your own arguments here.

 

Build the system. Meanwhile go young in the majors. Once the foundation is ready add free agents.

 

So sell off Mauer too? You'd have to. Plus, what if the foundation flops? Another 7 years of rebuilding?

 

There is only one way out of this hole. The Twins can't buy there way out.

 

This may be the sixth time someone has made this point to you. No one is suggesting that. No one. No one is saying you abandon the farm in favor of building in FA. It's just being pointed out that they aren't mutually exclusive. You can, and should, utilize both to make your team better. I feel like we're going in circles because you can't keep yourself focused on the point at hand.

[snepp]

I think Target Field should enable them to buy their way into the playoffs every year.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm sorry, I couldn't help it.

[TheLeviathan]

I think Target Field should enable them to buy their way into the playoffs every year.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm sorry, I couldn't help it.

 

Is it possible for a major league team to just not have a farm system? Because that's what I'm arguing.

 

100% FA acquisitions.