Souhan: Free Agent Pitchers Not The Answer

[old nurse]

Nope. Wrong as usual.

 

I've documented this elsewhere. Since 07:

 

Barry Zito

Bengie Molina

Rich Aurilia

Dave Roberts

Aaron Rowand

Jeremy Affeldt

Randy Johnson

Edgar Renteria

Juan Uribe

Mark DeRosa

Aubrey Huff

Javier Lopez (deadline trade, xtnd with big raise)

Miguel Tejada

Ryan Vogelsong (best dumpster acquisition ever? re-signed big $$$)

Melky Cabrera (via trade, raised salary to 1 yr @ $6M)

Angel Pagan (via trade on Mets salary dump, re-signed both Pagan for big bucks- 3yrs/$31.75M, and then re-signed the 2 players in the original trade w/ Mets!, Torrez & Ramirez)

Hunter Pence (de facto FA- via salary dump trade for 3 minor league non-prospects, Giants took on prorated $10.4M + $13.8M in 2013)

Marco Scutaro (de facto FA- via salary dump trade for 1 minor leaguer, Giants accept prorated $6M + re-upped for 3yrs./$20M)

 

Some good, some bad. Some supposedly "crippling". Giants still succussful over the similar time frame and payroll model as the Twins- and they took on other risks like in the fact that they bought out arb years and re-signed some of their best players, as well.

 

Nice list. I still see a list of large contracts that anyone other than the Chief would call a bust. A lot of players on the tail end of their career, take a chance, and overpaid.

[old nurse]

Is it an intentional act on your part to so consistently completely miss the point of the counter-argument?

Bicker bicker. Is it always part of your act to attribute ideas and thoughts to someone where they don't exist?

[Guest USAFChief]

Nice list. I still see a list of large contracts that anyone other than the Chief would call a bust. A lot of players on the tail end of their career, take a chance, and overpaid.

And it's absolutely killed that franchise. Same with the Tigers. Same with Atlanta. Same with Boston. Same with St Louis.

 

All those busts have prevented those franchises for years.

[old nurse]

Is this trolling? Again, the idea is not to shut off options. The Giants made some poor big investments, but they were still willing to make big investments. They were also willing to deal top prospects for big additions. Both of which I'd like this club be WILLING to do. I wouldn't close off those options.

 

 

Have I restated this in enough ways that you won't miss the point this time?

The Twins are being chastised for dumpster diving and yet San Francisco is being praised for it. The players the Giants brought in as free agents with big contracts did not pan out. In terms of additions. When you look at the additions the Giants made in taking on larger contracts for prospects they did it when they had a strong nucleus. So at the point when the Twins were even remotely near the Giants in revenue and Ryan was in charge would you say the Twins have a good nucleus to build from. From that same point what 2-4 prospects for the Twins were in AA or AAA to entice somebody to make a trade? I can see you point clearly before. I can also see your limits in your thinking which are the key points you clearly continue to miss.

[old nurse]

And it's absolutely killed that franchise. Same with the Tigers. Same with Atlanta. Same with Boston. Same with St Louis.

 

All those busts have prevented those franchises for years.

 

Sign high priced free agents as the way to go to build the franchise. San Francisco signed large free agent contracts that did not work and the franchise won in spite of it. No it did not kill the franchise, but the point was it did not help. I have to remember to keep things simple and direct for you. Nice reply to it is only money comment.

[ThePuck]

I have to remember to keep things simple and direct for you. Nice reply to it is only money comment.

 

Ah, yes, CMSgts known for being simple-minded...

[Mike Sixel]

I think people are talking across each other......

 

sometimes, signing FA players works. Usually, signing awful players does not work.

 

The argument has been made that if the Twins take a chance, and sign a HUGE contract, that it will cripple them. People are offering SF as a rebuttal to that argument. They are NOT arguing those signings worked, they are rebutting your point that if any team ever signs a bad contract, it will never be able to compete in the future. I think that rebuttal is pretty good, actually.

 

The Twins have 1 pitcher in teh minors that looks like he'll be ready to pitch next year for sure. So even if Gibson is good, they'll still only have 1-3 decent pitchers next year.....what should Ryan do? Not sign any good FAs? Not trade prospects for good pitchers? Wait for Meyer and May to figure it out, and for Berrios to spend 3 more years in the minors?

 

If it is not trade good prospects for a proven player, and it is not sign good players to big money, what is your strategy for fixing the problem?

[gunnarthor]

He's uncomfortable dealing prospects for established talent - yes. Which is how the Tigers got Scherzer, Miggy, Sanchez, etc.

 

Well, sure but that's what you said. Ryan hoards his young prospects but that doesn't mean he's uncomfortable making trades and many of his trades have worked out quite well. He's gotten plenty of talent back while keeping his best prospects. Just comparing Mays, Milton and Liriano to Det's three guys - best seasons by WAR

 

Mays 01 - 6.7 (league min)

Fister 11 - 5.2 (league min)

Liriano 06 - 4.5 (league min)

Liriano 10 - 4.4 (1.6m)

Milton 99 - 4.2 (league min)

Schertzer 12 - 4.2 (3.75m)

Sanchez 11 - 3.8 (3.7m)

Sanchez 06 - 3.7 (league min)

Milton 01 - 3.6 (2.15m)

Milton 00 - 3.5 (league min)

Schertzer 10 - 3.3 (1.5m)

Fister 12 - 3.3 (league min)

Sanchez 10 - 3.2 (1.25m)

Mays 99 - 3.0 (league min)

 

And that doesn't include Silva who had a couple 3+ WAR years, Lohse who had 3 2+ WAR years or, obviously, Santana who has a couple cy youngs.

 

Detroit has had a payroll advantage that certainly should be considered. I'm not sure Ryan hoarding prospects is a bad thing, in fact, I think it's a good thing. Sure, not every prospect pans out but for a small market team like the Twins were in his first run, it made sense. (And he did make a few prospect trades - Keilty for Stewart, Tyler and Bowyer for Castillo). And turning Roberto Kelly into Joe Mays seems like a good thing, certainly better than giving up a top prospect for him. (And the Schertzer trade was very Twins like - Tigers parted with 2 major leaguers - Granderson and Edwin Jackson - and received 4 parts back, including two very young pitchers in Schertzer and Schlereth. They didn't trade any prospects there).

[gunnarthor]

The Twins have 1 pitcher in teh minors that looks like he'll be ready to pitch next year for sure. So even if Gibson is good, they'll still only have 1-3 decent pitchers next year.....what should Ryan do? Not sign any good FAs? Not trade prospects for good pitchers? Wait for Meyer and May to figure it out, and for Berrios to spend 3 more years in the minors?

 

If it is not trade good prospects for a proven player, and it is not sign good players to big money, what is your strategy for fixing the problem?

 

I actually think you make good points even though we probably disagree a bit. I don't think there is a quick fix for the team. Even if they added Sancez, they'd be in line for the #5 pick in next years draft instead of the #3 pick. I think FA should be used to put the finishing touches on teams that are near completion but shouldn't be part of the foundation. We simply disagree on that.

 

So basically I do think the Twins have to finish this cycle and build toward 2015. I honestly don't see any realistic option. That'll mean the Twins will have 3 bad years and 3 high picks in the draft and larger budgets for intl signings. They will have traded guys like Span, Revere, Willingham, Morneau and Perkins to get young talent that'll be part of the 2015 wave.

 

Flipping the question, what moves would you have made to make this team competitive? Outbid Boston and Detroit for Dempster and Sanchez (and do you really think the Twins could have done that)? Trade Sano, Arcia or Hicks for something? Drafted Gausman over Buxton? Keep Span and/or Revere?

[old nurse]

I think people are talking across each other......

 

sometimes, signing FA players works. Usually, signing awful players does not work.

 

The argument has been made that if the Twins take a chance, and sign a HUGE contract, that it will cripple them. People are offering SF as a rebuttal to that argument. They are NOT arguing those signings worked, they are rebutting your point that if any team ever signs a bad contract, it will never be able to compete in the future. I think that rebuttal is pretty good, actually.

 

The Twins have 1 pitcher in teh minors that looks like he'll be ready to pitch next year for sure. So even if Gibson is good, they'll still only have 1-3 decent pitchers next year.....what should Ryan do? Not sign any good FAs? Not trade prospects for good pitchers? Wait for Meyer and May to figure it out, and for Berrios to spend 3 more years in the minors?

 

If it is not trade good prospects for a proven player, and it is not sign good players to big money, what is your strategy for fixing the problem?

Trading a prospect for a player is not a bad idea. The Twins have had very few prospects in the AA/AAA level that were not needed to fill a hole on the major league level that would be valuable to someone else. That may change in the next couple of years. If more than one of the arms they signed last year develops and a few of the position players continue to develop then the Twins can make a trade or two to get the established player. This off season there should be a few starters come free that may be of use near the top of the rotation. I would advocate if the Twins want one of those pitchers to trade a prospect to get one of those this season. There are examples out there like Guthrie, Francis and Maholm of free agents resigning with the team that traded for them that it does influence a player's opinion to warrant that action.

[old nurse]

Ah, yes, CMSgts known for being simple-minded...

I have dealt with enough of them to know.

[Mike Sixel]

1. Drafted Gausman, which everyone last week called idiotic, but I still think is right. Actually, I'd have drafted Appel.....either would be the Twins' best starter now.

 

2. Promote Gibson. That would give them Appel/Gausman at 1, Gibson and Diamond at 2/3.

 

3. Sign Grienke, I know, idiotic according to many, but if you have Grienke, Appel, Gibson, Diamond, other, that's a top 10 rotation, imo.

 

4. Draft the best pitcher in this year's draft....so Shipley, Stanek, or Stewart. All three are 1-3 years away (so they can replace Diamond if three years, or be the number 5 if sooner).

 

that wasn't so hard......people look at moves in isolation, as if just 1 move would not "fix" the issue. But, more than 1 move is availalble.

 

Heck, just drafting Appel/Gausman and taking the best pitcher they can this year, that could be enough if they all work out to be number 2/3 types or better.

 

Now, maybe Greinke won't sign here.....if not, then go for Dempster or Sanchez. Move down the list, not up from the bottom. I think they have plenty of money to sign one of the top three guys. Would they have signed here, I can't answer that.

 

For trades, I'd have explored if Revere or Arcia or Hicks would return more, and deal that one. I would not have dealt both Span and Revere in 1 year, but given that they passed on every other opportunity to add pitching, I understand why they did it.

 

But as you say, they are now looking at 2015 before they have good pitching, IF everything works out. How many GMs get 5 years of being one of the worst teams in their sport?

[John Bonnes]

I think people are talking across each other......

 

sometimes, signing FA players works. Usually, signing awful players does not work.

 

The argument has been made that if the Twins take a chance, and sign a HUGE contract, that it will cripple them. People are offering SF as a rebuttal to that argument. They are NOT arguing those signings worked, they are rebutting your point that if any team ever signs a bad contract, it will never be able to compete in the future. I think that rebuttal is pretty good, actually.

 

The Twins have 1 pitcher in teh minors that looks like he'll be ready to pitch next year for sure. So even if Gibson is good, they'll still only have 1-3 decent pitchers next year.....what should Ryan do? Not sign any good FAs? Not trade prospects for good pitchers? Wait for Meyer and May to figure it out, and for Berrios to spend 3 more years in the minors?

 

If it is not trade good prospects for a proven player, and it is not sign good players to big money, what is your strategy for fixing the problem?

Mike, thank you for the reasoned and civil comment to get this thread back on track. You too Gunnathor.

 

Just a warning to the rest that seem to relish throwing a personal dig into an otherwise salient point - leave out the dig. It serves no purpose other than to:

a) generate a personal dig as a response which degenerates that thread

demonstrate a level of emotional immaturity that lowers your reputation in the eyes of 80% of the people reading this stuff

c) jeopardize the substance of your post with possible deletion.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again - if TD moderators feel like they're spending too much time regulating personal feuds, I am actively encouraging them to just ban the feuders. It is an easy fix and the community will recover from losing any one of us - of that I'm sure.

 

Ok, let's get back to the topic....

[stringer bell]

Scherzer was a prospect they got for dumping Jackson. the Twins should be so lucky as to have the c level talent that Miami wants when they dump players and comes calling

Scherzer had completed a year + when he was dealt to the Tigers. I don't consider that a prospect. That is where Diamond is right now. I would say that Ryan is very hesitant to deal for someone who will cost the team money in salary. I also believe that the market for players with more than one year of service who project to be well above average (like Scherzer) is very steep. In talking about 2014, adding someone whith a bright future and more than a year of major league service would cost a lot--probably more than Ryan (and a lot of other GMs) is willing to spend. Perhaps the Twins could snare a Scherzer-like talent at the trade deadline if they deal the Hammer.

[chopper0080]

Free agency isn't the route to long term success.

 

Signing an over 30 guy to a multiyear almost guarantees being stuck with the decline phase of the player.

 

One year or even two year guys often are not very good to begin with or are already in decline. Someone has probably done the study, but it sure seems like the majority of last winters bargains are struggling.

 

The route to long term success is to develop pitching from within. Adding young pitchers like Meyer, May and even Worley is a step in that direction.

 

I agree that building a team through free agency is not the answer, but it is an important tool to have in the toolbox. In modern sports, teams do not have the luxury of waiting years for prospects to develop and depending on that development to translate to the big leagues. In baseball that is even more true with the length of time it takes most prospects to make it to the big leagues.

 

There is no question that a strong minor league system is the most important part for a MLB baseball team to maintain success. However, FA is an important tool to fill the gaps and helps bridge the gaps between the waves that prospects come in. To ignore FA or use it so conservatively that you don't "overspend" on players is like playing golf with half of your clubs.

 

Several conservative and successful teams use free agency well while not hindering their farm systems or getting themselves into financial binds. Anibal Sanchez was a prime example how FA should be used. Same could be argued about Mike Napoli. As an organization you should be as confident in your free agenct approach as you are in your draft approach. Free agent money should be spent wisely, but spending wisely doesn't only mean spending cheaply.

[ThePuck]

No one has suggested building a team through free agency...things always go to the extremes around here. Some suggest FA bargain basement shopping all the time doesn't do much to help the team, especially when there's significant payroll flexibility. Others say spending market value and market years on actual quality players should be avoided cause they might end up being bad contract later on...instead it's best if the team just banks the money instead of taking a chance on making the team better by spending cause it might end up being a bad contract.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike, thank you for the reasoned and civil comment to get this thread back on track. You too Gunnathor.

 

.

 

Given my rants last week, I love the irony that I am the voice of reason.....actually, I did not like how I felt after last week, so I'm either going to post differently, or avoid certain threads, or maybe the whole site. It's not making me happy to chat here lately.....

[gunnarthor]

Given my rants last week, I love the irony that I am the voice of reason.....actually, I did not like how I felt after last week, so I'm either going to post differently, or avoid certain threads, or maybe the whole site. It's not making me happy to chat here lately.....

 

I suspect as the season gets worse, the tone on these boards will too. At least most of the draft discussion has been civil.

[Mike Sixel]

I suspect as the season gets worse, the tone on these boards will too. At least most of the draft discussion has been civil.

 

Which is why I may decrease how much I come here......if coming here is just going to annoy me, I'm going to come less.

[Kenneth Kitsom]

The only thing good about Revere is his defense. I'll roll with Hicks and his potential over Revere any day. I'm happy Ryan was able to get ANYTHING for Revere.

[zenser]

In my opinion, there are decent options via free agency. I think that if you are using FA to fill one rotation spot (maybe two at best or a bullpen spot) that you can maybe find an arm or two.

 

I think this link is pretty telling of why the Twins have struggled both with their rotation and fielding major league players in general.

 

Last time each AL team drafted an All-Star - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

 

2002 was the last All-Star drafted by the Twins and it was Even Meek who was Pittsburgh's rep in 2010.

[TheLeviathan]

Well, sure but that's what you said.

 

yes, but in the context of talking Detroit. A quick survey of the roster would have illustrated this for you. The rest of your post is fine but it ignores Sanchez, Cabrera, Hunter, Peralta, Fielder, V-Mart and others that Ryan's tendencies indicate he may not have pursued. Detroit's market is not so different from ours...their success speaks to how a willingness to use all resources can transform a team. I worry we lack a willingness to use many of the same avenues that have been CRITiCAL for where they are now.

[TheLeviathan]

The Twins are being chastised for dumpster diving and yet San Francisco is being praised for it. The players the Giants brought in as free agents with big contracts did not pan out. In terms of additions. When you look at the additions the Giants made in taking on larger contracts for prospects they did it when they had a strong nucleus. So at the point when the Twins were even remotely near the Giants in revenue and Ryan was in charge would you say the Twins have a good nucleus to build from. From that same point what 2-4 prospects for the Twins were in AA or AAA to entice somebody to make a trade? I can see you point clearly before. I can also see your limits in your thinking which are the key points you clearly continue to miss.

 

you clearly don't. I do not deny that he might do what you suggest, but he ramped his rhetoric this offseason and what do we have to show for it? What you don't get is that I don't deny Ryan MIGHT do these things, but what is irrefutable is that he has not during any trench of tenure, done so to date.

 

And please, you are conflating points. Jorgensen is arguing against using FA at all at this point and you are mixing replies to that in accurately with other conversations. The Giants example was a clear response to Jorgensen that you are twisting into a point no one is making.

[gunnarthor]

Detroit's market is not so different from ours...their success speaks to how a willingness to use all resources can transform a team. I worry we lack a willingness to use many of the same avenues that have been CRITiCAL for where they are now.

 

The big difference between the Tigers and Twins has been how much money the owner has been able/willing to pay. Criticism of Ryan for his small market approaches in the dome days under Carl isn't valid, IMHO. Ryan now has the potential (apparently) of spending much more than he has (although we don't know how much the Pohlads are letting him spend. He'll never blame them for payroll issues). I'm ok with the small market approach while he rebuilds this team but I expect the FO to spend money when the team is ready to compete. I understand that others are not.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Given my rants last week, I love the irony that I am the voice of reason.....actually, I did not like how I felt after last week, so I'm either going to post differently, or avoid certain threads, or maybe the whole site. It's not making me happy to chat here lately.....

 

Hmm... isn't "The voice of Reason" married to Mr. Bonnes?

[Mike Sixel]

Trust me, John and Mike are not married......

[johnnydakota]

Ryan is uncomfortable with trades? In his first go around he traded for a multiple cy young winner as well as Mays, Milton, Liriano, Nathan (7 combined all star games), Silva, Boof, Lohse.

 

In his second go around he's already traded for Meyer, May and Worley.

And hows that working out so far this season?

[TheLeviathan]

The big difference between the Tigers and Twins has been how much money the owner has been able/willing to pay. Criticism of Ryan for his small market approaches in the dome days under Carl isn't valid, IMHO. Ryan now has the potential (apparently) of spending much more than he has (although we don't know how much the Pohlads are letting him spend. He'll never blame them for payroll issues). I'm ok with the small market approach while he rebuilds this team but I expect the FO to spend money when the team is ready to compete. I understand that others are not.

 

We share that expectation but personally I don't think we have to wait to start that process. To be clear, I'm not "holding it against" Ryan, just stating facts. He may well break his pattern of behavior but I expected some signs of tht this last offseason, and it didnt happen. So I'm wary about the future.

[glunn]

Which is why I may decrease how much I come here......if coming here is just going to annoy me, I'm going to come less.

 

The bickering seems to come in waves. Please be patient while we deal with it.

[Mike Sixel]

The bickering seems to come in waves. Please be patient while we deal with it.

 

 

It's not the bickering, its my personal reaction to the current and future state of the team. It really isn't about other posters at all.....but yes, there are some things the community could work on.....