2023 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread

[DJL44]

Love the pitching heavy draft. Do this every year.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The biggest difference in this draft was the quality of pitching prospects even in the mid to late rounds.   

Elite  - Soto - he has the chance to be a #1 pitcher.  He has good velocity, movement and command.  Needs to continue to develop. 

High Ceiling low floor HS pitcher - Questad is a very interesting pick.  It will be interesting to see how he develops

Good pitchers need to improve velocity and pitches - Hall Stoffal, Langenberg, Lee, Pasqualatto,  Bragg

Currently throwers need to develop more command and refine pitches -  Dunn, Hamilton, Bengard, Silvas, Garcia

If you look at just the good pitchers category I think you can effectively have a very solid A Ball pitching staff.  The majority of these pitchers have been starters, ultimately even though we needed some pitching prospects, we won't have enough spots for all these players as starters.  It will be curious to see which players they throw in the pen and who they leave as starters.  Gut feel I think Soto develops into a #1 or #2,  2 develop from the good pitcher category and 1 to 2 develop from the thrower category into either starters or relievers.  If we can have 4-5 legit prospects develop from this class that would be great, top it off  with 3 solid to elite bats in Jenkins, Keaschall and Winokur if this draft pans out you can heavily impact the success of the organization.  

A lot of teams will have successful draft from this class, due to the quality and quantity of the prospects.   

[gman]

Currently there are 7 catchers in the FCL team, some of who could be moved to other teams. With 15 pitchers taken in the draft, you do need catching of some type to warm of pitchers and for practice.

Are any of them potential starters? Don't know, they spread the AB's around a lot. Daniel Pina, 18, has started the best hitting wise but only about 40 plate appearances. His fielding isn't much to right home about.

[ashbury]

Let me be the first to suggest that new pitching prospect Xander Hamilton is not throwing away his shot!

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Dman said:

I believe that is 9 pitcher's in a row.  Has to be some kind of record

Twins franchise record, possibly.  But then there's the Angels' legendary 2021 draft:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=ANA&year_ID=2021&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

20 picks. 20 arms.

[Dman]

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Twins franchise record, possibly.  But then there's the Angels' legendary 2021 draft:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=ANA&year_ID=2021&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

20 picks. 20 arms.

Yeah I remember that one. Glad the Twins didn't do that this year. I like all the position players they picked but still am happy they went pitcher heavy.  Farm needed it and they don't seem to get much for arms from INTL free agency but do get bats. So draft seems to be the best way to get arms other than trades.

[DocBauer]

8 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Just wanted to do a quick compare to last years see what we think we have in value in this draft

1. Jenkins vs Lee   -  Jenkins has the slightly higher ceiling but both are very good prospects - pretty even 

2. Soto vs Prielipp -  Soto has the much higher ceiling and less injury risk,  heavily favors Soto, I still like Prielipp. 

3. Keaschall vs Schobel -  almost mere images of each other.  Wash

4. Winokur vs lost pick -   Winokur is high ceiling draft pick, 2023 win.  

This is where we start to get some real separation

5. Hall vs Morris .   Hall is the better pitcher and has a higher ceiling than Morris.  Really like the Hall pick - favors 2023

6. Questad vs Ross  - This heavily leans towards Questad.  you have high potential and even a better floor than Ross.  Real chance on hitting something here

7.  Harry vs Ortega -  Harry has good makeup - but Ortega has continued to show good pop so far,  first time I go with 2022.  

8. Santos vs Jones -  I am not high on either.  If one were to flash most likely Santos but a wash. 

9. Stoffal vs Matthews -  I think ultimately both have some talent.  I think Stoffal maybe slightly higher but willing to give this a wash.  

10.  Dougherty vs lewis -  a bit of hindsight here, but Lewis looked like had some tools to be effective pitcher.  I take Lewis even without his season performance, easily ahead here with the performance.  

11. Dunn vs Shuffield -  lets just ignore shuffield and look at Dunn vs Lewis.  Honestly this is very close even knowing what Lewis has done.  You have a lefty in Dunn that has 3 very good pitches.  You have the chance at a #3 ceiling pitcher possibly higher.  I slightly lean towards Dunn between the two but its close.     

What it shows is much higher ceilings but overall just better quality throughout (it helps having an extra pick).   You have 3 potential elite players in 2023 Jenkins, Soto and Winokur vs Lee.   I think Priellip has the potential to get back in this group but need to wait on the health.  Keaschall and Schobel both look like excellent ball players - safe picks likely good outcomes for both.  

For pitching - Hall, Questad and Stoffal and Dunn all have the tools to be good pitchers.  Mathews and Lewis appear to be the best picks for pitching on day 2 last year and we my have a gem in Lewis.  However the quantity and quality of pitching for yesterday heavily leans to 2023.  

The one caveat is Ortega,  I liked him when he was picked and he has continued to do well this year.  For the hitters drafted later, I think he has the best chance of continuing to improve and move up in the organization.   

I like the breakdown and largely agree. I almost did the exact same type of post Monday night but was just too tired after work and yardwork after. Kudos to you for having more energy than me. LOL.

I will grudgingly give you an "even" on Lee vs Jenkins based on the ceiling of Jenkins. But it's hard to do that with Lee at 3B/2B vs an OF.

I'm torn on Soto vs Prielipp. While I understand Prielipp is battling "something" right now, and being brought along painstakingly, but understandably, slow, if he's right and ready for instructs and 2024, all this injury crap behind him finally, I have to disagree that Soto has a much higher ceiling. A healthy Prielipp, no surgery, wouldn't have fallen to the Twins last year. And if he did, it would have been a choice between he and Lee. I'm glad the Twins took the shot on Prielipp. And HOPEFULLY, whatever is slowing him down at this moment is nagging, and not serious. I know it might hopefully silly to say... because some guys never make it all the way back...but if he only has a "tweak" somewhere that rest and rehab will take care of...let's just say a biceps tendinitis or something similar...he might look fantastic in 2024. So my objection is just "ceiling" between the two.

What's really interesting to me is the parallels between the two drafts.

STUD INF, that shouldn't have been there, STUD OF that we had no chance for before the lottery win. Then a potential STUD pitcher that maybe shouldn't have been available, but he was. College vs HS is different, I grant you, but the similarities are there. Then, they draft a virtual clone INF/OF player. And after that, with Winokur being an outlier for a lost pick, for the next several picks you can see arm vs arm between the two drafts. 

Just very interesting to me how parallel these past two drafts have been.

 

[twinfan4life2200]

Paulshawn Pasqualotto is thebBiggest steal of the draft, it's not even close. Fb up to 98 in the cape sitting 95 (wouldn't be surprised if he's touching 100 in the next 2 years or so), 80 grade ch and 80 grade cb when he is healthy. Unreal pick for the Twins. Let's ****ing go.

[DocBauer]

We're going to have a lot of long conversations about this draft now that the dust has settled, and TD is accumulating thumbnails for all of the draftees for us to digest and discuss. But I, of course, have my own viewpoints to toss out initially, lol.

1] Regarding the catcher debate: Unless they look potentially special, quality catchers are built, not drafted. The Twins HAVE drafted catchers, and have even signed a few international kids there...though I wish they would do more. They have the vastly improved Jeffers, and the very solid Vazquez, despite him catching the "anti-hitting" disease that has afflicted the entire Twins roster. 

**cue Ashbury with a scene from THE NATURAL that I'm not proficient enough to know how to do.**

But they aren't devoid of some young talent that might turn out. And like most drafts, this one wasn't catcher rich. Still, I believe catchers are like QB in the NFL, damn hard to find! I believe an NFL team should draft a QB every other year, late even, to see if lightening strikes for a starter, or a backup, or a potential trade chip. I also believe a ML team should draft a couple of catchers, even late, every single year for depth and HOPE. But I'm not overly surprised the Twins didn't this year. 2022 draftee Baez has everything but experience and has had his 2023 debut disrupted due to injury. And they have a few international kids to look at. And with one of the deepest drafts ever, and rookie FA possibilities, I'm OK they went mostly pitching.

2] Not the least surprised the Twins went the HS route for a lot of their picks. The value was there, and they have enough bonus $ to make it work. They selected more than a few college players who should sign lower deals to make up the difference. And in today's game, you seldom, if ever, pick a HS kid beyond the first 3 or 4 rounds unless you have an agreement in place. So I would expect virtually all the HS kids to sign without issue. What's interesting is their last 2 picks were HS players. This isn't a total surprise as while we no longer have the "draft and follow" premise before signing late that disappeared decades ago, it's still a statement saying: " We like you and will be following you in college". The Twins got lucky when SS, and top college prospect, Omari Daniel decided to turn pro vs going to college. Maybe they get lucky again. But everyone else should sign.

3] The Twins don't "type cast" their arms, which I love. If they did, in a misguided attempt, Ryan wouldn't be a Twin right now. They are more than eager to grab a Prielipp, or a Soto early. But they are also ready to draft a Hall in the 4th round who doesn't have the absolute "measureables" of 6' 2" and above, and weigh in at 200lbs plus. They are smart enough to realize control is a good thing, as is deception, and secondary stuff. They believe in "pitching" talent, knowing they can work on velocity, control, and even refining a secondary pitch. 

And while they still grabbed a handful of arms that DON'T make the absolute "measurable" numbers, what they look for, rotation or bullpen, are arms to work with and then develop. 

But other than "we believe we can unlock more velocity and find better control and a 3rd or even 4th pitch" mantra, what they believe in is an arm that just hasn't hit it's potential yet. 

With that being said, if there was an OBVIOUS "type" in the Twins draft strategy for pitchers beyond the first couple or rounds, you would see two things:

A] An arm coming off injury or a great arm with great stuff just coming off a poor season with potential still in place.

B] A long and lengthy arm, probably from a smaller school, who hasn't found their full potential yet. Think Ober and Varland, Lewis and Mathews last year, and look at some of the draftees this year on day 2 and 3. Length leads to velocity and deception. Smaller school kids means they were undervalued  coming out of HS, still growing and developing. 

Just like last year, you can see some potentially underrated arms that fit the Twins MO of future development and possibilities. 

My ONLY complain is I just wish there were more LH arms to work with.

 

[ashbury]

21 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

My ONLY complain is I just wish there were more LH arms to work with.

The scouts/evaluators' jobs are finished now.  It's up to development to make a few tweaks like that.

Quote

**cue Ashbury with a scene from THE NATURAL

I only know how to do Lollygaggers from Bull Durham.

[big dog]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

The scouts/evaluators' jobs are finished now.  It's up to development to make a few tweaks like that.

I only know how to do Lollygaggers from Bull Durham.

Let's not forget your Rickrolling prowess. Wait, no, I'd like to forget that.

[Doctor Wu]

Pitchers, pitchers, and more pitchers! I love this strategy, especially, as many have noted, that this draft is deeper in quality arms than in the past. Sure, another catcher would have been nice, but I love the accumulation of young arms. And as a bonus we now have one of the best names in the game: Paulshawn Pawqualotto

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, twinfan4life2200 said:

Paulshawn Pasqualotto is thebBiggest steal of the draft, it's not even close. Fb up to 98 in the cape sitting 95 (wouldn't be surprised if he's touching 100 in the next 2 years or so), 80 grade ch and 80 grade cb when he is healthy. Unreal pick for the Twins. Let's ****ing go.

Guessing this new poster is Pasqualotto's relative. Glad to have a new Twins fan.

[Fatbat]

19 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Pasqualotto,  another good pitcher at this point in the draft.  Good slider,  could use a little more velocity and movement on 92 mph fastball.   I am really liking the pitchers in this draft.   Still waiting for that 6'6" mound of clay in a prospect :).  

Soto is 6’5” and 17 yo. Plenty of clay there to mould….

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I like the breakdown and largely agree. I almost did the exact same type of post Monday night but was just too tired after work and yardwork after. Kudos to you for having more energy than me. LOL.

I will grudgingly give you an "even" on Lee vs Jenkins based on the ceiling of Jenkins. But it's hard to do that with Lee at 3B/2B vs an OF.

I'm torn on Soto vs Prielipp. While I understand Prielipp is battling "something" right now, and being brought along painstakingly, but understandably, slow, if he's right and ready for instructs and 2024, all this injury crap behind him finally, I have to disagree that Soto has a much higher ceiling. A healthy Prielipp, no surgery, wouldn't have fallen to the Twins last year. And if he did, it would have been a choice between he and Lee. I'm glad the Twins took the shot on Prielipp. And HOPEFULLY, whatever is slowing him down at this moment is nagging, and not serious. I know it might hopefully silly to say... because some guys never make it all the way back...but if he only has a "tweak" somewhere that rest and rehab will take care of...let's just say a biceps tendinitis or something similar...he might look fantastic in 2024. So my objection is just "ceiling" between the two.

What's really interesting to me is the parallels between the two drafts.

STUD INF, that shouldn't have been there, STUD OF that we had no chance for before the lottery win. Then a potential STUD pitcher that maybe shouldn't have been available, but he was. College vs HS is different, I grant you, but the similarities are there. Then, they draft a virtual clone INF/OF player. And after that, with Winokur being an outlier for a lost pick, for the next several picks you can see arm vs arm between the two drafts. 

Just very interesting to me how parallel these past two drafts have been.

 

Doc, I agree with everything you said.  An even though I said even I still rank Lee ahead of Jenkins in a ranking.  

Priellip is so difficult,  all the arm talent in the world,  but hasn't been able to throw for essentially 3 years.   I hope they are babying him,  I really do, the worry is he need another tommy John and gone for the next 2 years.    Yes that would suck.   You make that pick every day though.  

The drafts really matched up except they sprinkled in more high school players at the top.  The difference was the quality of arms from rounds 8-15.  The Twins got to #1 starters of players at major colleges with good programs in the 11th and 12th round.  Langenberg and Pasqualotto are amazing picks,  good stuff and know how to pitch.  Can they improve them enough to make them legitimate MLB level players? Add in Dunn who already has some elite pitches, but some command issues and I  would be shocked if  at least 1 of those doesn't hit and more than likely all 3 will look very strong at the A and A+ level and then AA becomes the separator on whether they are legit prospects or not.   

Someone posted the arms primarily consisted of 3 categories after the 2 high school kids were picked.  Pitchers who slightly underperformed expectations from last year, were recovering from injury, and lastly small colleges.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/baseball/2023/07/11/minnesota-twins-select-iowa-baseball-ty-langenberg-in-11th-round-of-mlb-draft-hawkeyes/70397411007/

[Fatbat]

@DocBauer With the extra $2.4M$ given to them in the lottery, they should have plenty to sign those last two highschoolers. They can no doubt go under slot on several picks as well and $500k over budget total. I bet all 20 picks sign and 5 years look back at a great draft. 

[2wins87]

On the whole, I loved the potential for high upside early. You can get talent late in the draft, but odds are the franchise-building, all-star types are going to get taken early. They got a couple of good options there.

15 out of 21 picks were pitchers. Only two college bats. This wasn't a draft designed to impact the major league team quickly, but I'm OK with that.

If they have one developmental strength as an org it's improving those later round pitching picks, so in that sense they were drafting to their strength. There could be trade chips to fill the gaps in a couple of years.

[twinfan4life2200]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Guessing this new poster is Pasqualotto's relative. Glad to have a new Twins fan.

Negative. I have seen him since he was young and know the family well. Has been on every top club team in the country his whole life and believe it or not can hit just as well as pitch if not better. His CH is bugsbunny and his CB before injury was just an absolute wipeout 12/6. Slider has + traits once he gets it mastered but he just learned it this season right after injury. He is a straight gamer. Hardest worker in the gym as well and has an absolute superstar diet over the last 4 years. Has been facing pro hitters like Stott and others in Vegas during his HS off seasons and making them look foolish over the last 4-5 years. Genuinely an amazing pick by the Twins. Congrats.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, Fatbat said:

@DocBauer With the extra $2.4M$ given to them in the lottery, they should have plenty to sign those last two highschoolers. They can no doubt go under slot on several picks as well and $500k over budget total. I bet all 20 picks sign and 5 years look back at a great draft. 

I will be surprised if they sign the 19th or 20th round picks.

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Guessing this new poster is Pasqualotto's relative. Glad to have a new Twins fan.

 

37 minutes ago, twinfan4life2200 said:

Negative. I have seen him since he was young and know the family well.

I think you have to give our friend DJL44 credit for at least being "close" with that guess.

Welcome to the site.  I hope we have lots of successes from young Pasqualotto to celebrate together.

[twinfan4life2200]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

 

I think you have to give our friend DJL44 credit for at least being "close" with that guess.

Welcome to the site.  I hope we have lots of successes from young Pasqualotto to celebrate together.

True haha. Thank you. Looking forward to all the success for the team going forward.

[twinfan4life2200]

18 years old here against some of the best hitters on the west coast including Jacob Gonzales, I believe they also played on the same team for a few years, Now throwing 98 sitting 95. 12th pick because of "medical concerns". ElAttrache did a pretty good job I would say if anyone had a chance to watch his college Junior season. There is also video of him versus Bryson Stott somewhere around and other Vegas pro's and they couldn't touch him at that age. The future is bright Twin fans.