2023 MLB Draft Day 2 Thread

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Right, it's pretty mediocre. I think they have actually done a fairly good job of picking the right pitchers. I just think they need to pick more of them. Weight pitchers higher on future value than the position players. Take more shots on goal. A glut of pitchers is a lot better problem to have than a glut of future second basemen or corner outfielders.

We might not love the development and minors, but FG has their system 13th overall, before netting two top 100 guys this year. 

[Mike Sixel]

From Fangraphs:

Minnesota took the final player of the consensus top five available in Jenkins. The rest of their draft was mildly surprising. Soto throws hard, but I didn’t expect his sink-oriented heater to appeal to a more progressive team’s sensibilities. Keaschall checks a lot of data-related boxes and definitely has plus athleticism to the eye, but I’m not sure his feel to hit was actually tested by the Pac-12.

[Dave Borton]

Quote

the Twins are placing a premium on character, and then looking to see if the player has the tools that match the character.

I remember an interview with Falvey on WCCO radio the November after he was hired. This is exactly what he said in the early part of the interview. He wouldn't be after specific positions on the field. He was after character and they would draft and develop their tools.

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We might not love the development and minors, but FG has their system 13th overall, before netting two top 100 guys this year. 

Well, one top 100 for sure, not sure if the pitcher will be top 100 or just barely outside it. If you have a 50 future grade, you are in the top 120 or so on their site....

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I know some get frustrated with the front office and drafting and especially day 2 but lets even just look at last years draft. 

1. Lee  800 OPS in AA - had a heck of a game yesterday, if he can get up to 850 or higher OPS will continue to be a very highly rated prospect.  He has a ton of doubles, if a few more of those turn into home runs his OPS will jump.  

2. Priellip,  injured but looks to still have the elite arm talent worthy of draft slot. 

2B.  Schobel - one of best hitters in A+ ball  840 OPS over 1.000 OPS in June

4. Morris - Low 3 ERA  in A ball

5. Ross - 780 OPS A+  

6. Ortega - 820 OPS A+

7. Jones -4.53 ERA A+

8. Matthews - 3.7 ERA A+

9. Lewis - 2.29 ERA A+

10. Shuffield - 780 OPS A ball

11. Cossetti - 950 OPS A+ Ball 

 

Now all these players will likely not perform as they move up,  but some well, and the more you have - the better chance 1 or more will be solid or better MLB players.  Right now the success rate on last years draft is stupidly good, and that is currently without Priellip being healthy and pitching.   

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, IA Bean Counter said:

I know some get frustrated with the front office and drafting and especially day 2 but lets even just look at last years draft. 

1. Lee  800 OPS in AA - had a heck of a game yesterday, if he can get up to 850 or higher OPS will continue to be a very highly rated prospect.  He has a ton of doubles, if a few more of those turn into home runs his OPS will jump.  

2. Priellip,  injured but looks to still have the elite arm talent worthy of draft slot. 

2B.  Schobel - one of best hitters in A+ ball  840 OPS over 1.000 OPS in June

4. Morris - Low 3 ERA  in A ball

5. Ross - 780 OPS A+  

6. Ortega - 820 OPS A+

7. Jones -4.53 ERA A+

8. Matthews - 3.7 ERA A+

9. Lewis - 2.29 ERA A+

10. Shuffield - 780 OPS A ball

11. Cossetti - 950 OPS A+ Ball 

 

Now all these players will likely not perform as they move up,  but some well, and the more you have - the better chance 1 or more will be solid or better MLB players.  Right now the success rate on last years draft is stupidly good, and that is currently without Priellip being healthy and pitching.   

I mean Lee is still in the top 20-30 prospects overall by most sites....Cosssetti looks great as does Schoebel. Prellip was all about the risk, i was all for taking the chance and won't rip them if it doesn't work. 

The others all look like decent picks.

[Mike Sixel]

56 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure any team does that? Like I said, not sure.

You need 5 OF too....

That said, sure, I'd take more chances on arms early, but this wasn't the year for that, given how round 1 went. 

Atlanta did this year....three pitchers so far.

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

The other pick that has been mentioned and most would love is Cameron Johnson.  6'5" - has elite arm talent and is a lefty.  There are some signability concerns.  Another possibility the Twins or another team have something set up with the player.  Will have to wait and see.  

Was he the kid who was a LSU commit?  If that is the one that I'm thinking about, the signability concerns may come from his apparent strong desire to play at LSU.

[jmlease1]

39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

From Fangraphs:

Minnesota took the final player of the consensus top five available in Jenkins. The rest of their draft was mildly surprising. Soto throws hard, but I didn’t expect his sink-oriented heater to appeal to a more progressive team’s sensibilities. Keaschall checks a lot of data-related boxes and definitely has plus athleticism to the eye, but I’m not sure his feel to hit was actually tested by the Pac-12.

That's an interesting statement; they seem to be saying that they don't like Soto that much because his stuff doesn't work up in the zone which is where modern analytics are telling pitchers to go...but one of the things a progressive team is also thinking about is not needing to have every pitcher be the same guy. 

On Keaschall that kinda reads like they don't have a great reason to downgrade him but want to anyways, so they're picking "competition". By that measure, every HS player should probably get a ding?

I'm not really sure why they were surprised by these picks: none of them are a reach, all of them have some standout abilities on them...did they just expect the twins to take a chunky college slugger in all their mocks?

[jmlease1]

9 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Right now the success rate on last years draft is stupidly good, and that is currently without Priellip being healthy and pitching.   

So far last year's draft is coming along nicely! Now, they did focus on college players in that draft (first 13 picks were all college guys) and I would expect those to have a greater chance of initial success in pro ball, due to their greater experience and development than a HS kid...but it's still an impressive hit rate so far.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, jmlease1 said:

That's an interesting statement; they seem to be saying that they don't like Soto that much because his stuff doesn't work up in the zone which is where modern analytics are telling pitchers to go...but one of the things a progressive team is also thinking about is not needing to have every pitcher be the same guy. 

On Keaschall that kinda reads like they don't have a great reason to downgrade him but want to anyways, so they're picking "competition". By that measure, every HS player should probably get a ding?

I'm not really sure why they were surprised by these picks: none of them are a reach, all of them have some standout abilities on them...did they just expect the twins to take a chunky college slugger in all their mocks?

I think the Soto pick was slightly surprising as it wasn't a college player.  However the Twins have been willing to take high end HS pitchers shown by the Raya and Petty.  As to Keaschall, they may have thought there were higher rated prospects,  however if he performs like Schobel, the Twins will have confirmation on picking him where he went.  He is a bit of a pop up prospect and seems like he checks off the character category in spades.   Go look at most Twins drafts the last couple years, other than last years early picks, they have been continually trashed and fans and media usually highly dislike day 2 and 3 picks, yet they tend to strongly outperform on these picks.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

10 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Was he the kid who was a LSU commit?  If that is the one that I'm thinking about, the signability concerns may come from his apparent strong desire to play at LSU.

Yes,  it appears he would like to go - but if drafted has a a high bonus demand.  Right now the most likely candidates to sign a player like that would be 1. Pittsburg,  likely have plenty of ammo after likely signing Skenes to a below slot deal,  and possibly the Twins,  who also possibly got a below market deal their first 2 picks - its hard to say if the Twins have any savings on their first 3 picks but history shows they likely do.  Detroit may have also gotten a deal on Clark as well.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Alright,  about ready to roll,  lets see how they go on day 2, and prepare to be initially disappointed :) 

[Dman]

The run on pitchers has begun.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Damn Hurley just went 2 picks before.  

[Dave Borton]

There goes Hurly. I am finding I can't keep up, particularly in day 2. I go down a rabbit hole researching a player, and 3 more drafts have been done.

[2wins87]

Brandon Winokur, HS outfielder.

I like it.  Plenty of upside.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Winokur,  HS OF - definitely a different feel to this draft than past drafts.   

[jmlease1]

There were a couple of college pitchers left from KLaw's list that i liked, but we're getting in the territory where I've never heard of a lot of these guys, so gotta trust the scouting.

[Dman]

The Twins draft team finally listened to me and got a guy who is a solid plus runner.  Winokur kind of a typical Twins pick.  Good power, great arm and some questions yet about the hit tool.  I like that they went high school.  They are going to have a monster class of outfileders coming up the ranks with all the INTL signings and now drafting two high school outfielders.

They went shortstop heavy last year so nice to see them focus on the outfield.  If Winokur can play center this pick makes me happy.

[DJL44]

Why is Hunter Owen dropping?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Dman said:

The Twins draft team finally listened to me and got a guy who is a solid plus runner.  Winokur kind of a typical Twins pick.  Good power, great arm and some questions yet about the hit tool.  I like that they went high school.  They are going to have a monster class of outfileders coming up the ranks with all the INTL signings and now drafting two high school outfielders.

The trend I see right now with both HS hitters is short compact swings.   Both with decent to above hit tool with plus power.   

[Seth Stohs]

I love the HS picks. Says a lot about Falvey/Levine/Johnson/Scouts, etc... Who knows if they'll even be around when these kids get to the big leagues, but they're going with the young'ns, and that's awesome. 

Wickonur is tall, tons of power! Like it! 

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

The trend I see right now with both HS hitters is short compact swings.   Both with decent to above hit total with plus power.   

I agree the Twins model must like the swing outcomes of both players.  Still just a 50 hit tool grade as a high schooler is not a ringing endorsement to me,  Kirilloff was rated 60 hit when he went and it hasn't been easy for him.  Winokur very well might be better than that 50 grade but it still leaves me questioning the bat.  Everything else looks like it will be plus so the Twins obviously think the bat will be fine and if it is they might end up with a 5 tool player in the 3rd round.  Pretty nice get if it all works out. If the bat isn't good enough then they get nothing so there is risk there and mainly with the bat IMO.

[2wins87]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Why is Hunter Owen dropping?

Hasn't held up for a full College season, probably

[Einstein]

Big kid. I like it. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

49 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

I think the Soto pick was slightly surprising as it wasn't a college player.  However the Twins have been willing to take high end HS pitchers shown by the Raya and Petty.  As to Keaschall, they may have thought there were higher rated prospects,  however if he performs like Schobel, the Twins will have confirmation on picking him where he went.  He is a bit of a pop up prospect and seems like he checks off the character category in spades.   Go look at most Twins drafts the last couple years, other than last years early picks, they have been continually trashed and fans and media usually highly dislike day 2 and 3 picks, yet they tend to strongly outperform on these picks.  

The media does not highly trash them. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I enjoy reading about and keeping an eye on the draft even though I only know about the first-round(ish) players what I read on here and a few other places online, and I don't know who the later-round players are at all.

Here and there I'll pull up the write-up of a player drafted by another team just to see who one of these random guys is, so I just discovered the tidbit that the Astros just drafted a graduate student: Jake Bloss, 99th overall pick, a pitcher. Seems like he was still eligible to play because he had gotten his undergrad degree in 3 years, so he kept playing when he moved on to Georgetown to start a master's degree, and seemingly got better. No particular meaning there, just not an origin story for a draft prospect that you see often.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

The media does not highly trash them. 

The media has had concerns on day 2 and 3, most of the thrashing is on the board.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Tanner Hall,  solid pick - good command plus changeup.  Only 90 mph fastball as high as 94-95.  That would be something the staff can work with.  Likely a good piece of clay for A and A+ ball.