Who’s Coming for the Twins in the Central?

[Ted Schwerzler]

More than 60 games into the 2023 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins are back to where they started on Opening Day. Flirting with a .500 record on a daily basis, they have done everything they can to squander an opportunity to pull away. Now, who among their competition is coming for them?

 

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Going into the season, Rocco Baldelli’s club was seen as a quiet contender to take the division. With Cleveland as the reigning champs, sportsbooks were understandably favoring the Guardians. That rotation has not been the same quality often orchestrated by Terry Francona, but the return of Triston McKenzie could help that. The lineup was a question mark for the guys playing at Progressive Field, and that has been the case all season.

Outside of the Guardians, it should have been expected that a Chicago White Sox team no longer led by an out-of-touch Tony La Russa could be dangerous. The roster is talented, the bullpen is expensive, and the ceilings for some of the best on the roster is higher than maybe anyone in the division.

From the onset everyone went in different directions. Minnesota got out to a strong start, while the Guardians treaded water, and even Pedro Grifol couldn’t right whatever was wrong on the South Side. Now locked into a much tighter battle, it’s worth assessing which of the Twins competitors may be the one to watch most.

Cleveland still has to be viewed as the most realistic threat to coming up on the Twins from behind. Again, the pitching has always been their calling card and will continue to be. Shane Bieber is not the same ace he was at his peak, but remains a very talented arm. McKenzie being healthy is a big boost, and Logan Allen may be the cream of the crop. Tanner Bibee has shown well in his first handful of starts as a rookie, but will need to keep that up as teams see him a second and third time.

The Guardians bugaboo is that their offense largely is what it is. Jose Ramirez remains one of the most underrated superstars in the game, but next to nothing is around him. Josh Naylor has had a nice year, but Cleveland has needed that with Josh Bell being an empty free agent signing. Mike Zunino looks like a bust, even for a team so desperate of catching help, and Steven Kwan hasn’t replicated his 2022 season.

On the flip side, Chicago’s lineup couldn’t be more dangerous if they can make things click. Only Luis Robert Jr. has done that this season, and it’s been fun to see such a talented player remain healthy. Tim Anderson looks like a shell of his former self, and Eloy Jimenez continues to remain acquainted with the injured list. Jake Burger looks like a guy who should get more significant run, but still getting so little from Yasmani Grandal and Yoan Moncada holds the production as a whole back.

Realistically the White Sox should have a better rotation than the Guardians, but Lance Lynn has been an abomination with Mike Clevinger just a middling pickup. Lucas Giolito having a better year than Dylan Cease wasn’t something to be predicted and Michael Kopech has been bit by the longball keeping him from repeating the 2022 production.

Standings chart from Yahoo Sports. 

Minnesota is the only team in the AL Central with a positive run differential, and both the Guardians and White Sox own an actual record better than their Pythagorean number. Neither have looked to be anything of a substantial force against Minnesota or some of the top competition in baseball. That’s probably the good news.

The Twins leaving the door open has put them in a position to sweat out a division they should be leading by a substantial amount at this point. Give credit to the White Sox for wiping away a horrid start, but they haven’t been .500 since the sixth game of the season. Cleveland’s furthest dip down was seven games below .500, but they have closed the gap at the top also.

If the Twins are looking behind them, and they shouldn’t be at this point, then I still think it’s the White Sox who are the most dangerous club, and Matthew Taylor recently highlighted their surge. It’s clear they are undisciplined and a terrible defensive team, but that lineup can carry them if it clicks. The rotation has significant arms, and if any pair get it going, a sustained run would not be surprising. Cleveland needs the lineup as a whole to produce well over their heads, and even a good rotation may not be able to carry them (see: Minnesota’s current production).

Minnesota’s lack of offensive production should still be seen as a silver lining that can supplement good pitching not expected to go away. The sooner that can happen, the faster they can put the competition behind them. If it doesn’t though, Cleveland is going to hang around and Chicago has the ability to go on a run. Let’s hope the Twins don’t allow either reality to come to fruition.

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[wsnydes]

Who's coming for the Twins?  Pretty much anyone not being KC.  Though, I don't really consider Detroit to be a serious threat, they're still within shouting distance.  And that's the problem.  Despite being in a putrid division and opportunities to pull away, they haven't.  So largely, it probably comes down to who is most healthy and playing decent enough ball at the right times to take a slim lead in the division come October 1st.

It should make for an exciting second half of the season, but the baseball may not be pretty.

[BillyBallLives]

Not sure why it matters. "First place" Twins would be only good for last in the AL East...do we really want to endure more play off loses? 

[miller761]

Does the remaining schedule favor on of these 3 teams?

[SwainZag]

48 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

Not sure why it matters. "First place" Twins would be only good for last in the AL East...do we really want to endure more play off loses? 

I would rather make the playoffs and have a shot at winning than not make it.  Winning the division gets you in the tournament.  

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Does the remaining schedule favor on of these 3 teams?

Not significantly. Twins remaining opponents have a .478 winning percentage. Cleveland's have a .492 winning percentage. Chicago's are a .474 winning percentage. So slight advantage to MN and Chicago as of today, but even Cleveland's remaining schedule is full of winnable games.

[blindeke]

44 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Does the remaining schedule favor on of these 3 teams?

The Twins have the softest remaining schedule, but the difference isn't huge.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I would rather make the playoffs and have a shot at winning than not make it.  Winning the division gets you in the tournament.  

If they break the playoff losing streak with one playoff win that's a step forward. This pitching staff looks pretty good for a short series. They have a good 4-man rotation and they can hide the worst relievers especially if they move starters (Maeda and Varland) to the bullpen. We have seen this offense get hot for a game here and there.

I don't think anyone else in the division will buy at the deadline to try to catch the Twins.

[D.C Twins]

Baseball realignment after sustained central division pathetic performance?

[ashbury]

The Twins' magic number this morning stood at 93 according to the RIOT tool which takes into account contenders playing against each other.  I don't see how anyone else catches them, given this fact.

[MABB1959]

23 hours ago, BillyBallLives said:

Not sure why it matters. "First place" Twins would be only good for last in the AL East...do we really want to endure more play off loses? 

They are almost a NO GO at winning a Wild Card spot.