Could Bailey Ober Still Win A Rotation Spot?

[miracleb]

Hmmmm....maybe because one had Tommy John surgery and didn't pitch last year and the other was one of the Twins best pitchers last year (on a limited basis.)

[miracleb]

Did I mention Maeda is 35 years old.......

[hitterscount]

Are they serious about contending for the Central...  assuming that is a yes than you stick to the plan of a 5-man rotation and start the pitchers that earned their spot. If Ober continues to look great he needs to be in the rotation. If Maeda is not happy .. with his team friendly contract, I am guessing they can find someone willing to trade a decent minor leaguer for him. 

[chpettit19]

40 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Hmmmm....maybe because one had Tommy John surgery and didn't pitch last year and the other was one of the Twins best pitchers last year (on a limited basis.)

37 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Did I mention Maeda is 35 years old.......

Bailey Ober has cracked 100 innings 1 time in his professional career. Limited basis? He threw 56 innings for the Twins last year. Yeah, I'd say that's pretty limited. Devin Smeltzer threw 70.1 innings with an ERA of 3.71 for the Twins last year to put Ober's 56 innings in a little bit of perspective. 

I'm so confused by this idea that Ober is some workhorse while Maeda is some fragile flower who couldn't possibly throw 5+ innings a start. They're literally throwing the same amount right now. Since 2017 (when Bailey started his pro career) Maeda has thrown 134.1, 125.1, 153.2, 66.2 (2020), and 106.1 innings in the majors. Ober has thrown 84, 75, 78.2, 0 (2020), 108.1, and 72.2 innings. That's 586.1 innings for Maeda and 418.2 innings for Ober. There is no reason to think Bailey Ober is going to throw even 100 innings this year. None whatsoever.

I like Ober. He's too good for AAA, and deserves an MLB job. But he's the most injury prone pitcher on the staff by a mile. Pretending he's less of an injury risk than Maeda is simply ignoring the entirety of his career. I hope he comes out and throws 120+ innings this year. It'd be awful team building for the Twins to expect him to. They can't rely on more than 75 innings from Ober this year. Starters come back from TJ every year and throw 120+ innings. Verlander threw 175 last year at the age of 39 after not having pitched since 2020. If Maeda can do 2/3s of that he'll already be at Ober's career high in innings pitched.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Are they serious about contending for the Central...  assuming that is a yes than you stick to the plan of a 5-man rotation and start the pitchers that earned their spot. If Ober continues to look great he needs to be in the rotation. If Maeda is not happy .. with his team friendly contract, I am guessing they can find someone willing to trade a decent minor leaguer for him. 

Then what do you do with the rotation when Ober misses 3 months with injury? You like Varland or SWR more than an established big leaguer like Maeda if they're "serious about contending for the Central?" Cuz that's what you're asking for. Bailey Ober gets hurt every year. Literally. He's never played a fully healthy professional season. Not once. He's going to get hurt. You want Maeda in your rotation for the battle for the Central or Varland? I don't see any argument that could be made for a team that's "serious about contending" picking Varland over Maeda. 

[stringer bell]

To my knowledge, Ober was available throughout his rookie season. Due to his lack of innings in the preceding years and being a rookie, he wasn’t allowed to go deep in games that year. 
 

Last year, Ober’s injuries were confined to his lower body (if that matters) and he was fully healthy as the season ended. 
 

Maeda is older, with a more established résumé, and he so far appears to be injury free. It’s pretty tough to take a guy out of his preferred role because a younger guy looks better in Soring Training. 
 

With their new, fortified rotation, the Twins should be able to move to their sixth guy with little noticeable dropoff. That Ober might spend some time in the minors doesn’t enrage me. He’ll get plenty of big league work this season IMHO. 

[jimbo92107]

Most of these assessments seem to converge on a common strategy: If Ober's pre-season stuff is shining while Maeda looks rusty, then it makes sense to make Ober the 5th starter while Maeda goes to the pen. Use Ober's innings at the MLB level so as not to waste them in St Paul. Let Maeda continue to hone his stuff as a long reliever. If Ober gives you half a dozen starts before something puts him on the IL, by then Maeda should be sharp enough to give the team some reasonable starts. By then, you're getting close to half a season, by which time somebody in St Paul could be ready for a callup. 

On the other hand, if Ober stays healthy... Then the Twins have a surprisingly good and cheap starter, maybe for a full season this time. Plus, if Maeda's time in the pen allows him to ease back into pitching well, then it becomes a relative embarrassment of riches. 

Here's to embarrassment!

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

With their new, fortified rotation, the Twins should be able to move to their sixth guy with little noticeable dropoff. That Ober might spend some time in the minors doesn’t enrage me. He’ll get plenty of big league work this season IMHO. 

Doesn't enrage me that Ober spends time in the minors what is confusing me is that he goes to the minors while lessor pitchers pitch valuable innings for the Twins. What also confuses me is that some how it will take him forever to get stretched out to pitch 5 innings if he pitching in relief. If that is really the case he is a long way away from pitching 5 innings in any game since he hasn't pitched more than 2, couldn't the same same be said for Maeda?

[miracleb]

Jimbo nailed it!

[Tyler from Oregon]

With the way he's pitching currently, stashing him at AAA is a waste of innings for Ober. Would love to see them go with six starters until things sort themselves out. Best case scenario is that everyone remains healthy, and then you either move Kenta or Ober to a long relief role for the rest of the season. 

[DocBauer]

A series of thoughts, and pretty much echoing a few already shared here.

1} Not crazy about a 6 man rotation. In today's game, the 8 man pen is a reality. And it doesn't mean your starters can't give you a consistent 6 IP. But even then, the days of 200 IP and 32 GS just aren't happening any longer. 

2} Even if the proposed 5 starters have good, healthy seasons, there are going to be mild injuries, and possibly even a "tired arm" injury stint for someone like Maeda to monitor innings. There will be plenty of games for a 6th arm to start.

3} Ober, with his size, and his past injury situation that is hopefully mitigated now with all the mechanical adjustments made in 2021, is not a good fit for the pen at all. For one thing, he won't be stretched out when you need him in the rotation. And they ARE going to need him at some point. I seriously doubt Ober is a good candidate to get warmed up quickly and head to the mound when needed either. He would need a starter's type of warm up, so now you have to predict when to use him before you know for sure you need. (If that makes sense).

4} I don't want Ober at St Paul either. Nor do the Twins. He's way too good to be there, and he's likely part of the future, as well as the present. But his career and season are not hurt in any way if he spends 4-6 weeks at AAA, if even that long, remaining stretched out and ready to go.

5} I do have to admit that the piggy backing idea does actually work, should the Twins feel inclined to go that direction. One starts, goes 4-5 innings, and the other comes in after to potentially finish off the game, or at least get to the 9th, for instance. This helps keep arms stretched out, and mitigates the loss of the 8th reliever since the piggy back games generally won't need more than 1 or 2 arms beyond Maeda/Ober. But I wonder...do you alternate the starter/piggy back every other time out?

I've noticed that when you have depth like this, too many guys for one spot/area, it simply has a way of working out. Even should they begin the season with a 6 man, how long would it last before someone pulled something, or had a blister, or cracked a nail, or whatever? It's going to work itself out.

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Then what do you do with the rotation when Ober misses 3 months with injury? You like Varland or SWR more than an established big leaguer like Maeda if they're "serious about contending for the Central?" Cuz that's what you're asking for. Bailey Ober gets hurt every year. Literally. He's never played a fully healthy professional season. Not once. He's going to get hurt. You want Maeda in your rotation for the battle for the Central or Varland? I don't see any argument that could be made for a team that's "serious about contending" picking Varland over Maeda. 

I agree with you completely. 

Posters are trying to choose between Ober and Maeda... when they DON'T have to choose. We can keep both and we will need both. According to Google Maps it takes 21 minutes to get from CHS Field to Target field. 

I'll never understand the reasoning. There isn't one team in MLB that has gotten through a season with 5 starters. Everyone should be aware of that by now. Having a pitcher in AAA that's too good for AAA is what you want. Yay for us. 

Carry on... I'm with ya.

 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree with you completely. 

Posters are trying to choose between Ober and Maeda... when they DON'T have to choose. We can keep both and we will need both. According to Google Maps it takes 21 minutes to get from CHS Field to Target field. 

I'll never understand the reasoning. There isn't one team in MLB that has gotten through a season with 5 starters. Everyone should be aware of that by now. Having a pitcher in AAA that's too good for AAA is what you want. Yay for us. 

Carry on... I'm with ya.

 

It's the same with position players. I want to see the young guys, too. I'm excited to see what they can be. But we just watched a season get absolutely nuked because they didn't have anyone in AAA who had any real shot at stepping up and filling in for injuries on the major league roster. Extra depth is good, and needed!

[hitterscount]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Then what do you do with the rotation when Ober misses 3 months with injury? You like Varland or SWR more than an established big leaguer like Maeda if they're "serious about contending for the Central?" Cuz that's what you're asking for. Bailey Ober gets hurt every year. Literally. He's never played a fully healthy professional season. Not once. He's going to get hurt. You want Maeda in your rotation for the battle for the Central or Varland? I don't see any argument that could be made for a team that's "serious about contending" picking Varland over Maeda. 

Maybe Ober is due for a full season?  Maeda certainly has an injury history as well... and he's not likely in the long-term plans. Keeping Ober in the minors as a backup waiting for someone getting injured isn't how it should work, IMO, if he earns the spot during ST he should be in the rotation. 

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Maybe Ober is due for a full season?  Maeda certainly has an injury history as well... and he's not likely in the long-term plans. Keeping Ober in the minors as a backup waiting for someone getting injured isn't how it should work, IMO, if he earns the spot during ST he should be in the rotation. 

He's well overdue for a full season. But that doesn't mean he's likely to get it. You think they're just going to jump a guy who's cracked 100 IP once from 75ish innings to 150ish innings in 1 season? That doesn't sound like something many teams would do. Especially if that player is part of the "long-term" plans. 

Maeda has an injury history? What's that? He's never been on the IL for more than 15 days in a row before his TJ surgery in his 14th professional season. Maeda has almost no injury history. Certainly no worse than the typical major league pitcher. What do the long-term plans have to do with the 2023 season? Your statement was about a team that was "serious about contending for the Central" in 2023, wasn't it? The long-term plans shouldn't have anything to do with competing for the division title in 2023. 

You're kind of trying to have it both ways here. If it's about the long-term plans then Ober shouldn't be expected to top 110-120 innings this year so as to mitigate his injury risk for the long-term. But if it's about contending for the division in a serious way in 2023 then you don't want a guy who you won't let throw more than 110-120 innings as a rotation staple because you're either having him go for short starts, and putting more pressure on your pen (didn't work well last year), or you're skipping his starts throughout the year and bouncing someone into and out of the rotation randomly. Neither of those situations is ideal for contending in 2023. 

Maybe that isn't how it should work, but it is. It's the nature of the CBA where certain players are allowed to be sent to the minors and brought back while others aren't. It's also the nature of incentive laden contracts. They're a tool the Twins will want to use again moving forward. If you take a guy who's got nearly $10 million tied into starting vs relieving and you put him in the pen with no shot to reach any of his incentives you're making it way harder to offer deals with incentives in them to future players. Whether it's how it should be or not, this is how major league baseball works. Ober would/will still get plenty of opportunities to start.

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It's the same with position players. I want to see the young guys, too. I'm excited to see what they can be. But we just watched a season get absolutely nuked because they didn't have anyone in AAA who had any real shot at stepping up and filling in for injuries on the major league roster. Extra depth is good, and needed!

September was just 6 months ago and already forgotten by Halloween. 

14 Starting Pitchers were used in 2022 - 38 pitchers total saw action. So... somebody check my math... 24 pitchers used out of the bullpen? 

13 Outfielders were used in 2022 - 24 position players total. 

When 2022 was all said and done... 62 players crossed the white line at some point. A nickel here and nickel there and pretty soon you have a dollar. 

And we got to move Maeda? To make room for Ober? 

Solano is redundant? Gallo is Superfluous?

62 players not only wore the uniform but showed up in a box score in 2022 and no matter how painful that September "Cave" in was... many are in a state of oblivion talking about log jams before the first snow falls. 😄

[TwinsDr2021]

17 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll never understand the reasoning. There isn't one team in MLB that has gotten through a season with 5 starters. Everyone should be aware of that by now. Having a pitcher in AAA that's too good for AAA is what you want. Yay for us. 

Carry on... I'm with ya.

 

If Ober was about 3 years younger (like Varland) I would completely agree with what you are saying, but he will be 28 in July, if he isn't good enough to make the major league roster at age 27 can we all agree he isn't part of the Twins future rotation (he will have 3 years of control after this year) and he just a pitcher of depth and another guy they pipeline failed to produce?

If that is what the Twins are thinking, than I am 100% behind sending him to AAA to start the season. My hope with Ober was that he would make a nice 2 or 3 year run as a starter then be traded away for prospects before becoming a free agent. (you know the way pipelines are created) (the same with Ryan and Varland since they both got a late start in the majors and there is no reason to sign either long term since both will be controlled into their very early 30's isn't that the whole idea with not getting players into the majors until their mid 20's, have them controlled though their prime for cheap and dump them before paying any real money?

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If Ober was about 3 years younger (like Varland) I would completely agree with what you are saying, but he will be 28 in July, if he isn't good enough to make the major league roster at age 27 can we all agree he isn't part of the Twins future rotation (he will have 3 years of control after this year) and he just a pitcher of depth and another guy they pipeline failed to produce?

If that is what the Twins are thinking, than I am 100% behind sending him to AAA to start the season. My hope with Ober was that he would make a nice 2 or 3 year run as a starter then be traded away for prospects before becoming a free agent. (you know the way pipelines are created) (the same with Ryan and Varland since they both got a late start in the majors and there is no reason to sign either long term since both will be controlled into their very early 30's isn't that the whole idea with not getting players into the majors until their mid 20's, have them controlled though their prime for cheap and dump them before paying any real money?

Lots to respond to.🤔

if he isn't good enough to make the major league roster at age 27 can we all agree he isn't part of the Twins future rotation 

I don't agree. 3 Pitchers are potentially gone from the rotation after this season. I hope Ober continues to pitch well and slides into one of those spots.  

but he will be 28 in July,.. (he will have 3 years of control after this year) and he just a pitcher of depth and another guy they pipeline failed to produce?

Actually, 4 Years of Control after this year. Service time is currently 1.124 with two options remaining. He could potentially be with us for awhile but he won't matter anymore in terms of this discussion because you are tagging him a "just a pitcher of depth".  "another guy" "pipeline failed to produce" because? we have 5 other capable starting pitchers? That's too all or nothing or too black and white with nothing in between.  

If that is what the Twins are thinking, than I am 100% behind sending him to AAA to start the season

I don't know what they are thinking. If I had to guess, they are thinking that Bailey Ober if healthy will start a lot of games for the Minnesota Twins because the disabled list will be utilized like it has been utilized every single year. 

 

Bailey Ober isn't competing against Kente Maeda for a spot. Maeda doesn't have options. He is competing against those who have options (Lopez and Ryan) for a spot. The CBA makes it possible to stash talented players with options in the minors. The CBA makes it nearly impossible to stash talented players without options in the minors. The frequency of injury makes it an absolute necessity to have talented players stashed in the minors. 

[TwinsDr2021]

14 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Lots to respond to.🤔

if he isn't good enough to make the major league roster at age 27 can we all agree he isn't part of the Twins future rotation 

I don't agree. 3 Pitchers are potentially gone from the rotation after this season. I hope Ober continues to pitch well and slides into one of those spots.  

but he will be 28 in July,.. (he will have 3 years of control after this year) and he just a pitcher of depth and another guy they pipeline failed to produce?

Actually, 4 Years of Control after this year. Service time is currently 1.124 with two options remaining. He could potentially be with us for awhile but he won't matter anymore in terms of this discussion because you are tagging him a "just a pitcher of depth".  "another guy" "pipeline failed to produce" because? we have 5 other capable starting pitchers? That's too all or nothing or too black and white with nothing in between.  

If that is what the Twins are thinking, than I am 100% behind sending him to AAA to start the season

I don't know what they are thinking. If I had to guess, they are thinking that Bailey Ober if healthy will start a lot of games for the Minnesota Twins because the disabled list will be utilized like it has been utilized every single year. 

 

Bailey Ober isn't competing against Kente Maeda for a spot. Maeda doesn't have options. He is competing against those who have options (Lopez and Ryan) for a spot. The CBA makes it possible to stash talented players with options in the minors. The CBA makes it nearly impossible to stash talented players without options in the minors. The frequency of injury makes it an absolute necessity to have talented players stashed in the minors. 

If the Twins control him for 5 more years including this year then that changes my opinion on how the Twins handle him, doesn't change my opinion on his future but that isn't important.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If the Twins control him for 5 more years including this year then that changes my opinion on how the Twins handle him, doesn't change my opinion on his future but that isn't important.

I think it's fantastic that someone with Ober's ability is currently sitting 6th on the depth chart. 5 Decent starters in front is wonderful. 

I am also excited that Paddack, Canterino, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Balazovic are 7 through 11. 

[miracleb]

Looking like the Ober/Maeda "controversy" might be switching to the Maeda/Mahle "controversy."  Maeda needs to build up to get to 3-4 innings and Mahle can't get past 2-3 innings.....

[NotAboutWinning]

Ober's stock might be rising. Maeda is having another rough outing against an Atlanta lineup of mostly starters 😕 Doesn't look to have anything on his fastball.