Making A Pitch For Bailey Ober’s Most Important Pitch

[Cody Christie]

Bailey Ober was arguably Minnesota’s most critical starting pitcher after the team dealt away other starting rotation members at the trade deadline. To find more success in 2022, one pitch may make all the difference.

Ober is coming off a strong rookie campaign where he made 20 starts and posted a 4.19 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP. At the season’s end, he was named the team’s rookie of the year, which likely resulted in higher expectations for him entering 2022. Minnesota’s only offseason additions to the rotation include Sonny Gray and Dylan Bundy, so Ober will be relied on to accumulate innings. The Twins likely want him to take on an even more critical role, and his slider is the pitch that can help him take the next step. 

Ober used a four-pitch mix during his rookie campaign, including a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. His second most utilized pitch was his slider, as he threw it 18.4% of the time. Last season, batters posted a .264 batting average and a .542 slugging percentage. At Baseball Savant, his slider resulted in a 38.2 Hard Hit % and a 7 Run-Value. His Run-Value on his slider ranked as the 17th worst in baseball. 

One of Ober’s biggest strengths is controlling the strike zone and limiting walks. His BB% ranked in the 94th percentile, and his slider was the pitch he threw most regularly out of the zone. His slider is almost exclusively used against right-handed hitters (86%), while he regularly turns to his other offspeed offerings against southpaws. His OPS versus righties was over 100 points lower than lefties, and he had a 9.17 SO/W rate versus right-handed hitters.

Last season, Ober made specific changes to his slider to add more velocity so the pitch would look more like a fastball to hitters. There were visible changes to the pitch, which helped improve his other offspeed pitches. 

In an interview with FanGraphs, Ober said, “I started throwing a new slider [in early-to-mid-August]. I wanted something a little bit harder. It had been around 78-80 [mph], and I wanted to give hitters something different. It was kind of blending with my curveball, too. Basically, the idea was something with a bigger speed difference between my curveball and my slider.”

He went on to say, “Before, I had it a little deeper in my hand, and it had a lot more horizontal movement on it. It wasn’t as depth-y as my new one. My new one is harder [82-84] and has a little more depth, and it’s also not as horizontal anymore.”

In the minor leagues, Ober could pound the strike zone with fastballs and get consistent outs. As he establishes himself at the big-league level, he will need to continue to make adjustments and rely on his secondary pitches. Minnesota’s front office identified the changes mentioned above, and he made improvements over his final seven starts, including a 3.63 ERA and a 34-to-3 strikeout to walk ratio. 

If Ober can continue to make adjustments, he will establish himself as a long-term rotational option for the Twins. All of his other pitches are tied to the success of his slider.  How important do you think Ober’s slider is to his 2022 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[4twinsJA]

I really like Ober, probably will never be an ace but should be a solid mid-rotation starter.

[DocBauer]

I don't want to get too wrapped up in a really solid rookie year, or early results from ST this year, but I have some pretty high hopes for Ober. What impresses me most about him is not his length and how it "adds" velocity to his stuff or hides the ball, it's his overall control, his obvious work ethic, and his intelligence. He re-worked his delivery to not only add velocity, but most importantly, to find a comfortable, repeatable delivery to keep his body sound. He had some injury issues earlier in his career and commented once how he just "hurt" after games. That looks to be a completely past issue at this point.

Very impressed that he worked on developing his new slider during the season. And instead of having difficulty doing so, or wearing down near the end of the year, he actually improved and seemed to grow stronger.

Despite his new slider, I have to wonder, might it not be smart to occasionally use the "old" variation here and there, take a little off, and get that greater horizontal movement as a "show me" offering? Or does that over complicate his normal release and arsenal? 

While he might settle in as a very good #4 starter, I'm not so sure he doesn't grow in to a legitimate #3 with a little more time and refinement. 

[The Mad King]

Great insight. I expect we'll see ups and downs from him this season. Hopefully more ups and that he learns from his downs.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Wonderful article, especially incorporating the videos from Wes and from Baily  explaining the change which you wrote about. Nice job Cody/

[Twinsrtheworst]

I truly see the development happening.  I also see the growth in him, as I have watched him pitch in multiple spring training workouts and games over the years.  I believe we will be more than pleasantly surprised by his success and a few others.  I may take heat for this , but from my view we will have a top ten rotation in the AL.  I know we need more, so hoping we squeeze out some extra.  From everything I've seen down here past few weeks...do not sell this team short!  Another move would be great but excitement should be building.  Just saying hop on this hype train now before it's to late

[Doctor Gast]

I think it unwise to expect more from Ober than what he can give us in his big sophmore year. We have burned out too many SPs & RPs and have them limp across the finish line if they even finish. Again I stress a strong piggy-back system to keep everyone fresh.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, se7799 said:

I truly see the development happening.  I also see the growth in him, as I have watched him pitch in multiple spring training workouts and games over the years.  I believe we will be more than pleasantly surprised by his success and a few others.  I may take heat for this , but from my view we will have a top ten rotation in the AL.  I know we need more, so hoping we squeeze out some extra.  From everything I've seen down here past few weeks...do not sell this team short!  Another move would be great but excitement should be building.  Just saying hop on this hype train now before it's to late

OK, so you're down in ST? Tell us more about what you are seeing.

[tony&rodney]

Good read.

Ober is fun to watch. Last year, he was a mild revelation. Now, he looks like an emerging piece to a good starting pitching staff. Just watching him pitch on video, Ober controls the batter more consistently than any of the other pitchers. I think he has great value as a Sonny Gray type of pitcher and now the Twins have Gray too. It would be sweet if the Twins can add a pitcher to slot in between Gray and Ober.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

OK, so you're down in ST? Tell us more about what you are seeing.

I was down at ST and I can tell you 3 things I did not see: 1) Twins vs. Yankees, 2) Twins Vs. Phillies, 3) Twins Vs. Red Sox. All cancelled due to the frustrating lockout. Go Twins. 

[Karbo]

Glad to read the young players are making adjustments already. The sooner they learn to adjust on the fly the more successful they will be!

[mikelink45]

I am on a wait and see evaluation mode - remember that Dobnak started well and so did Smeltzer.   I want Ober to succeed and think he can, but until we see him make another 10 starts in the majors it is all conjecture - the same is true of Ryan.  The Sophomore jinx did not just get made up, it is hard to gain consistent success as the other teams scout and evaluate.  I like Ober's intelligence and Ryan's attitude so my hopes are still high that both continue their rise. 

[Twinsrtheworst]

19 hours ago, DocBauer said:

OK, so you're down in ST? Tell us more about what you are seeing.

The biggest thing I can add and takeaway from my stay here.  

1.  Many and I mean Many adjustments being done on the fly by the players. Not saying it's a bad thing, as I sence an urgency more than the past.  Definitely not as structured as in the past, I'm sure do to condensed schedule.

2.  Very positive vibe, players are busting there tail ends off.  Everyone looks like they are more trying to "catch up" for lack of a better term.  Many major league players are jumping in on A, or AA to get timing down and work in.

3. Carlos Correa looks as advertised and seems to be taking a large leadership role.