Poll: Which longer-term starting pitcher contract would you sign?

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins need starting pitchers, I know it, your family knows it -- dogs know it. And now we have some predicted contracts for the free agent market, thanks to the MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 list.

This poll includes all of the 3+ year predicted contracts for free agent starting pitchers (with the exception of Scherzer -- sorry. that ain't happening!).

Which one of these contracts would you most like the Twins to sign, and why? Do you think you're getting the best pitcher in the group, or rather the best value?

[big dog]

I would really, really love to see the Twins sign any one of the top three (Ray, Gausman, Strohman). And one from the group below that. Put the names in a hat, pick one of each.

There, that's all I want.

[dex8425]

Wow, I'd be shocked if Gausman gets 6/138. He's had one good season as a starter. 

[nicksaviking]

Ray would be my top choice. Rodriguez's upside would hold my interest as well. I still struggle to trust Gausman as I'd have a hard time buying into a pitcher's continued success coming from San Francisco. I'll admit that hesitancy may be unfounded though; could just be a personal distrust.

I wouldn't want any of the other guys starting Game 1 of a playoff series though so I have much less interest in them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I should add that signing Stroman (Marcus), with Strotman (Drew) still on the roster, would also necessitate a full-time proofreader here at Twins Daily.

[stringer bell]

I saw that the predictors had one vote for the Twins getting Stroman and two for Rodriguez, as well as one for Kluber (out of three votes). I like most of these guys far better than what was served up this year by the Twins. 

[bean5302]

If the Twins could get Stroman for 5 years at $110MM total, that's a no brainer, but I don't see it happening. No QO, coming off a career year and 4 out of the past 5 seasons over 3 fWAR, super consistent and durable.

Robbie Ray has more upside than Stroman, but far more down side because of his control issues. Ray strikes me much more as a Francisco Liriano type. I just don't trust he'll be consistent throwing strikes or be able to sustain the swinging strike rate going forward.

 

[Brandon]

Gray is 4 years on mlbtraderumors.  I went with that contract cause is allows Twins to sign more pitchers.  Signing Stroman is 2nd choice but will we be able to afford more pitching.  I think signing Stroman would require more pitching be acquired by trade.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

27 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

Wow, I'd be shocked if Gausman gets 6/138. He's had one good season as a starter. 

"Good" is obviously a subjective term, but Gausman has more than just 2021 on his resume.

Here are the career numbers as a starter for Gausman and Stroman:

#	Name	Team	GS	IP	K%	BB%	WAR	RA9-WAR
1	Marcus Stroman	- - -	173	1018.0	20.0%	6.8%	19.1	19.2
2	Kevin Gausman	- - -	197	1117.0	23.0%	6.9%	18.8	18.3

Pretty close in overall results, exact same age, and Gausman's 2021 was better than Stroman's too.

FWIW, Stroman is a groundball pitcher, Gausman is a flyball pitcher.

[Otto von Ballpark]

5 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Gray is 4 years on mlbtraderumors.

Corrected! Typo by me, sorry.

[Otto von Ballpark]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If the Twins could get Stroman for 5 years at $110MM total, that's a no brainer, but I don't see it happening. No QO, coming off a career year and 4 out of the past 5 seasons over 3 fWAR, super consistent and durable.

Good point -- for the Twins to actually land one of these, especially at the high end, they may actually have to beat these contract offers. (And we may not have the benefit of being allowed to match, after our initial offer -- no real history or geographic connection with any of these guys that I can see.)

[nicksaviking]

Twins K% by starters:

2019: 22.4% - 13th in MLB

2020: 23.2% - 12th in MLB

2021: 20.0% - 25th in MLB

They need to start missing bats again. This should be the top priority for potential Twins FA starters from my perspective.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is a really good list at very difficult prices. I ended up coming close to just closing my eyes and blindly clicking an option because the dollars all looked competitive and it's hard to decide whether I wanted someone higher end like Stroman or someone without the extreme financial risk, like Gray.

[TwinsDr2021]

How about the bottom three, that would be $33 million next year, it would be those three with Ober, Ryan, Dobnak, and the prospects for depth.

Then go out somehow and make a big trade for a Pitcher, even it if means way over paying.

[nicksaviking]

I have to think after the season they just had, the Giants are going to end up retaining at least ONE of their pitchers, if not two.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The name I keep looping back to is Eduardo Rodriguez. Given his age and ability, 5/$70m is really enticing to me.

[Vanimal46]

Jon Gray at a similar contract Ervin Santana received looks like a very realistic possibility. 

[dex8425]

3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

"Good" is obviously a subjective term, but Gausman has more than just 2021 on his resume.

Here are the career numbers as a starter for Gausman and Stroman:

#	Name	Team	GS	IP	K%	BB%	WAR	RA9-WAR
1	Marcus Stroman	- - -	173	1018.0	20.0%	6.8%	19.1	19.2
2	Kevin Gausman	- - -	197	1117.0	23.0%	6.9%	18.8	18.3

Pretty close in overall results, exact same age, and Gausman's 2021 was better than Stroman's too.

FWIW, Stroman is a groundball pitcher, Gausman is a flyball pitcher.

Stroman is projected to get a smaller contract though. I don't see a team going 140m to get Gausman. Personally I'd give Stroman more $$ over Gausman because of his much more consistent track record of success. 

[travkro]

I don't get the love affair with Jon Gray. Averages about 5 innings a start, I know it fits into Rocco's 2 times through the lineup.  I'd go for Rodriguez, Stroman or Ray who will go 7 innings.

[Otto von Ballpark]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Jon Gray at a similar contract Ervin Santana received looks like a very realistic possibility. 

Why sign Jon Gray to an Ervin Santana contract, when we can just sign Ervin Santana himself?

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

9 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I should add that signing Stroman (Marcus), with Strotman (Drew) still on the roster, would also necessitate a full-time proofreader here at Twins Daily.

Embrace the chaos: retain Juan Minaya and trade for Sean Manaea.

[nicksaviking]

On 11/9/2021 at 2:41 PM, travkro said:

I don't get the love affair with Jon Gray. Averages about 5 innings a start, I know it fits into Rocco's 2 times through the lineup.  I'd go for Rodriguez, Stroman or Ray who will go 7 innings.

I think the innings pitched perspective needs to be scrapped, because at this time, that tends to be an organizational prerogative more than it is a measure of the pitcher.

Gray isn’t among my top choices, but I do have some interest. Mostly because Colorado pitchers have to pitch, or at least are told to pitch differently due to the dynamics of their geography and park. His velocity and repertoire my play differently if getting ground balls isn’t a major part of the game plan.

[Greglw3]

I’d have the Twins sign the Robbie Ray contract.