Joe Benson leading off?

[Mave]

Joe hit leadoff today, and now I have a number of questions. I admittedly haven't been paying close enough attention to see if he has in previous ST games, but regardless, does this make sense to anyone else? Do the Twins realistically expect Joe to hit leadoff? Is this just an attempt to get him extra ABs at the start of the game? In Benson, aren't we looking at more of a Torii Hunter (free swinger, bigger power threat, plus fielder) than a Denard Span? Are we just stuck in a world where speedy CF's who provide plus defense= leadoff hitter? Am I just anxious/confused/making-a-mountain-out-of-a-molehill because I'm looking at 6 inches of fresh powder (and more still falling), opening day is just weeks away, it's midterms week and I really just want baseball to start again?

 

It just strikes me as odd-- like when the Tigers kept trotting Granderson out as their leadoff hitter when he didn't really possess the complete skill set required of the position.

[Guest USAFChief]

Um, let's see: yes, no, maybe, probably, conceivably, undoubtedly. Any more questions?

[Oldgoat_MN]

USAFChief - you kind of stop the comments when you answer all the questions in the first post.

Think about the rest of us.

Thank you

 

P.S. Mave - I wouldn't make too much out of Benson leading off a ST game. He's fast, but I don't expect his OBP to push him to leadoff.

[ashbury]

Um, let's see: yes, no, maybe, probably, conceivably, undoubtedly. Any more questions?

 

Possibly.

[Mave]

Chief-- Nope. All clear. Much appreciated.

 

Goat-- I agree-- in the minors his OBP isnt terrible, but the strikeout totals... ouch... pretty much an annual minimum of 2:1 K/BB, topping 100 K's/year several times.

 

I won't put the topic to bed just yet-- one more hypothetical question. Let's say for the sake of said scenario that Benson not only makes the team but is slated as the everyday leadoff hitter. I'm thinking he would be right-handed Jacque Jones 2.0 (with a better defense). Thoughts?

[Seth Stohs]

Power-wise, the Right-handed Jacque Jones comp is pretty good. However, Benson had very good Isolated Discipline in the minors, so he should walk more than Jones and strikeout just as much. Better defense too. When Hicks or Mastroianni have been in the lineup, they've led off and Benson has hit 6th or 7th or so.

[twinsnorth49]

Are we just stuck in a world where speedy CF's who provide plus defense= leadoff hitter?

 

Yes, it's Gardy's world and we all have to live in it.

[kab21]

My comp for Benson is Drew Stubbs (high k's and BB's, late blooming power and decent CF defense). Baker has batted Stubbs 1st or 2nd 75% of his career so far and I would not be shocked if Gardy did the same with Benson.

 

In addition to a world where CF = leadoff hitter and 2nd base = #2 hitter the Twins really don't have a lot of options for leadoff and the #2 hitter. Assuming that Mauer, Morneau and Willingham are 3/4/5. There is no conceivable way that Gardy won't have Mauer #3.

[jokin]

Yes, it's Gardy's world and we all have to live in it.

 

Outstanding...

[jokin]

My comp for Benson is Drew Stubbs (high k's and BB's, late blooming power and decent CF defense). Baker has batted Stubbs 1st or 2nd 75% of his career so far and I would not be shocked if Gardy did the same with Benson.

 

In addition to a world where CF = leadoff hitter and 2nd base = #2 hitter the Twins really don't have a lot of options for leadoff and the #2 hitter. Assuming that Mauer, Morneau and Willingham are 3/4/5. There is no conceivable way that Gardy won't have Mauer #3.

 

So, you're saying Mauer's going to be coming up to the plate with the bases empty, a lot, this year?

[cmathewson]

The twins are looking to replace Denard Span in CF. There are three candidates: Mastroiani, Hicks and Benson. The fact that Benson cannot hit leadoff will hinder his chances of making the team. You might think this isn't fair to him, but when you look at the other people in this order who can hit a little (Mauer, Morneau, Plouffe Parmelee and Doumit), it makes sens that the CF has to lead off. If we had a shortstop or second baseman who could lead-off, Benson might make more sense as a number 8 hitter. But we don't. And we do have a natural leadoff hitter in the CF competition (Hicks). Benson (or Mastorianni) hitting lead off in spring games is just a way to show everybody who the leader of the competition is (Hicks). It is clear to all the scribes that the Twins want Hicks to replace Span and are giving the others opportunities to compete in order to motivate them.

[Twins Twerp]

Does benson being out of options mean he cant start in minors or that once up he cant be sent down?

[snepp]

Doesn't Benson have an option remaining?

 

 

Anyway, technically everybody on the 40-man roster is already "up" because there is no 25-man roster during the offseason/spring. Any player without options would have to pass through waivers to get to the minors.

[Brad Swanson]

My comp for Benson is Drew Stubbs (high k's and BB's, late blooming power and decent CF defense). Baker has batted Stubbs 1st or 2nd 75% of his career so far and I would not be shocked if Gardy did the same with Benson.

 

In addition to a world where CF = leadoff hitter and 2nd base = #2 hitter the Twins really don't have a lot of options for leadoff and the #2 hitter. Assuming that Mauer, Morneau and Willingham are 3/4/5. There is no conceivable way that Gardy won't have Mauer #3.

 

Stubbs is a solid comp for Benson, but Benson might be better defender. As for the number 2 hitter, if the Twins really believe in Chris Parmelee, he should hit 2nd. He'd get far more at bats batting 2nd, compared with 7th or 8th. If they like him enough to basically hand him a job in right field, why not hand him the second spot in the order as well?

 

Benson definitely has at least one option left.

[Boom Boom]

Whoever is the opening day CF will hit leadoff. Gardy constructs lineups on autopilot- hence Redmond batting third, Tolbert batting second and Gomez leading off.

[Badsmerf]

Parmelee will never hit 2nd. Gardy is much too old school for that. He wants a #2 hitter that can bunt and move runners. Personally, I'd bat Joe Mauer lead-off. Why wouldn't you want the guy that gets on base the most in the league receiving the most AB's on the team? Stubbornness is the answer, in case anyone was asking that question to themselves for a fraction of a second.

[jokin]

Stubbs is a solid comp for Benson, but Benson might be better defender. As for the number 2 hitter, if the Twins really believe in Chris Parmelee, he should hit 2nd. He'd get far more at bats batting 2nd, compared with 7th or 8th. If they like him enough to basically hand him a job in right field, why not hand him the second spot in the order as well?

 

Benson definitely has at least one option left.

 

Agree with this and have advocated for such in the past. With no obvious potentially successful candidates for typical Gardy batting order construction and his adamant opposition to moving Mauer up in the order, why not try an AL East-style bopping #2 hole hitter instead of a Slap-N-Punch-N-Judy that inexplicably has Gardy so enamored to? This would be a good chance in a 1st Down-Punting season to experiment with Parmelee hitting just behind Hicks/Mastro and just in front of Mauer. Now, all we need is someone to spike Gardy's cherry juice to get this done.

[DaveW]

Parmelee will never hit 2nd. Gardy is much too old school for that. He wants a #2 hitter that can bunt and move runners. Personally, I'd bat Joe Mauer lead-off. Why wouldn't you want the guy that gets on base the most in the league receiving the most AB's on the team? Stubbornness is the answer, in case anyone was asking that question to themselves for a fraction of a second.

 

1. Hicks

2. Mauer

 

That is the top of the lineup that can win you some ball games.

 

Parmelee isn't a #2 hitter, you need a guy who at least has a little speed or preferably can get on base at a good clip. Parmelee personally projects as a #6/#7 hitter to me.

[h2oface]

the nats did pretty damn good with werth hitting lead off last year. now they are tampering with success and hitting span first and werth second. benson now has 3 hits in 20 ABs with 7 Ks and 4 walks. he seems really over matched.

[Shane Wahl]

1. Hicks

2. Mauer

 

That is the top of the lineup that can win you some ball games.

 

Parmelee isn't a #2 hitter, you need a guy who at least has a little speed or preferably can get on base at a good clip. Parmelee personally projects as a #6/#7 hitter to me.

 

Yeah, I would be hella on board with a Hicks-Mauer top of the order. Other than that it just seems like it would have to be Carroll-Mauer. But Gardy's choice might be something like Mastro-Dozier-Mauer.

 

Hicks-Mauer-Willingham-Morneau-Doumit-Plouffe-Parmelee-Dozier-Florimon is actually a formidable lineup. If Hicks is down, I would honestly just put Boggs in there at leadoff. Yeah.

[Shane Wahl]

Back to the original issue, I do see that Benson could be a 5 or 6 hitter. That said, I do imagine that he will be traded no later than 2015.

[jokin]

Yeah, I would be hella on board with a Hicks-Mauer top of the order. Other than that it just seems like it would have to be Carroll-Mauer. But Gardy's choice might be something like Mastro-Dozier-Mauer.

 

Hicks-Mauer-Willingham-Morneau-Doumit-Plouffe-Parmelee-Dozier-Florimon is actually a formidable lineup. If Hicks is down, I would honestly just put Boggs in there at leadoff. Yeah.

 

 

1. Hicks

2. Mauer

 

That is the top of the lineup that can win you some ball games.

 

Parmelee isn't a #2 hitter, you need a guy who at least has a little speed or preferably can get on base at a good clip. Parmelee personally projects as a #6/#7 hitter to me.

 

 

1) Hicks/Mauer is my personal preference, as well, w/ Carroll @ #9 (terrific in 2012 batting 9th: 274/357/333 vs. League Average of 233/292/349). Unfortunately, we all understand that it is unlikely to happen.

 

2) I think we all know that Dozier is going to be given every chance to bat Second, but Parmelee fits into the AL East concept of the 2-Hole batter to a certain extent and could possibly answer the concerns about OBP, while providing a pull-hitting LHB to hit behind Hicks and offset his lack of speed by providing a much more favorable GB/FB ratio to the alternatives and increased OF gap power to limit the DP possibilities and increase the overall TB numbers.

 

Consider- if OBP is the main concern, these are Parmelee's career batting slashes, which are encouraging enough to suggest that if given a chance, Parm could develop into a superior OBP guy in the 2-Hole:

 

MLB: 265/336/448 (w/ MOB 278/354/426)

AAA: 338/457/645

MiL: 273/365/455

 

Here's the AL average at the 2-Hole in 2012:

 

AL#2: 254/314/389

 

Here's the Twins average at the 2-Hole in 2012 vs. AL East team slashes (Revere skews up the Twins numbers, getting half the ABs @ #2):

 

MNT2: 273/321/329

 

NYY2: 253/341/479

TBJ2: 247/319/422

BOS2: 263/312/397

BAL2: 230/277/375

TBR2: 230/304/423

 

2012 AL East Average: 249/311/419.

 

This data shows that OBP is clearly less important in the AL East- while power is clearly emphasized, even to light-hitting Tampa Bay! Parmelee could provide clearly superior OBP numbers to the AL East average while possibly matching or exceeding their power numbers.

 

More data:

 

XBHs in the 2-Hole for the Twins in 2012: 27

XBHs AL East average at 2-Hole in 2012: 59.5

 

SFH for Twins from 2-Hole in 2012: 10

SFH for AL East average @#2 in 12: 5.1

 

I have no hope that the Twins would at least try this option, but the alternatives for this year are comparatively pathetic. (Sadly, after retrieving all these numbers, it made putting Mauer at #2 all-the-more-obvious decision).

[Guest USAFChief]

IMO, who is in the lineup is much more important than where they hit in the lineup. Your best hitters should be somewhere near the top so they come to the plate more often over the course of a season. Other than that, "leadoff," "#2 hitter," etc are just names that have little to do with how many runs a team scores.

[fairweather]

Welcome to sur la table. It's improbable but not impossible.

[kab21]

I expect Hicks to struggle this year. He has some flaws and he's always taken a year to adjust when he was simply moving up a level in the minors. Moving up to the majors is a huge jump.

 

I also like the idea of parmelee 2nd but realistically there is almost no chance it happens.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Benson had a .388 OBP at AA in 2011. Last year was a disaster for him.

IF AA was not his ceiling and IF he comes back and proves to be a MLB player his OBP could very well be fine, based on history.

Don't really care if he strikes out a lot if he gets on base at a good clip (though without a high BABIP the two don't go together well).

[Rosterman]

Benson has options this year and, I believe, next season too. Wouldn't have to be exposed until 2015. But if he doesn't produce, expect him to be at least packaged in a trade before then.

[Kwak]

How much would the Twins receive in a trade for a guy who has failed at the major league level and plays a position the Twins are known to have in excess?

[Willihammer]

A while back I went through the hitting results for teams based on position in the order, trying to find a relationship to the scoring that teams did.

 

I'm not totally sure how to interpret the data. The strongest correlation between lineup production and team scoring is at the 1st and 4th spots in the order. My theory is that, because the 1st spot will lead off at least once per game, and the 4th spot is guranteed to leadoff the 2nd inning in about 1/3 of all games (and then more or less randomly for the rest of the game), production in those two spots is more critical than elsewhere in the lineup.

 

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-WTZ5aHBJWHRRQ3c/edit?usp=sharing

[ashbury]

How much would the Twins receive in a trade for a guy who has failed at the major league level and plays a position the Twins are known to have in excess?

 

Depends on whether you can find one team needing good CF work and wanting to take a chance on his bat, or two of them.