Reusse: Optimistic About 2013 Twins

[70charger]

Do the Twins have a decent shot at having a sub-5.00 SP ERA from last year's 5.40?

 

Absolutely.

 

Given the defensive holes hollowed out of the lineup and huge projected drop in offensive production, would a highly implausible, semi-miraculous, everything-goes-perfect, American League average 4.37 SP ERA make a material difference in the W-L column?

 

Nope.

 

Then we'll see you back here in 2014?

 

 

Hey, a man can dream...

[jokin]

Then we'll see you back here in 2014?

 

 

Hey, a man can dream...

 

Sorry, as a lifelong Twins fan, I'll be here per usual, pointing out imcompetence and hypocrisy and demanding that changes be made.

 

Now go back, shut your eyes real tight, and start in again on your Make-A-Wish dreaming campaign.

[TheLeviathan]

Plouffe year 2 at 3b > Plouffe year 1

 

That's an awfully big assumption. Shall I suggest Danny Valencia as reason to not be so sure that defense will improve with time. In any case, this isn't any "better" than last year considering we had Carrol/Plouffe (who I thought played it pretty well overall) there last year.

 

Florimon at SS >> Dozier at SS (by all accounts) Dozier/Carrol at 2b = Cassila/Carrol at 2b.

 

I heard that about Florimon last year and from what I saw, he wasn't nearly the wizard we've heard about. Given the flashes we saw of the skillset I'm not ruling this out as an upgrade, but I need to see the hype matched first because a month of observations were not encouraging. Dozier was pretty terrible in his stretch so it's possible.

 

Again, you argued it was "better" - to start sniping about honest takes and being glass half-empty is skewing the argument. Congrats on shifting the argument so you could take some sort of high ground, but that was never what I claimed. The OF has taken a massive downgrade and, as you said, the infield is probably a wash. (And it wasn't very good last year) It's worth noting that it could be a very big problem for our pitching staff, enough even to offset these meager upgrades.

[gunnarthor]

I'd also suggest that "took a hit" is way too nicely phrased for comparing Span/Revere to Willingham/Parmalee. Hard to count Hicks until he's actually there and we see him play. I'm optimistic, but right now we have to look at things for what they are. I'm praying to whatever Baseball God has smote us with Drew Butera that they show mercy and have Benson ready to take over CF and stick in RF when it comes to Hicks, but that's hard to count on too.

 

Also, replacing their OBP could be difficult from their replacements.

 

I'm concerned about the MI defense but not that concerned about the OF. Span/Revere were great but Revere made Span a better CFer, something the Nats will learn. Maestro, Hicks or Benson should be better than Span in CF. I think Hicks gets the nod for opening day and every scouting write up on him thinks he'll be a great defensive CFer. There might be questions about his bat but his defense should make him pretty good. Parmelee in right isn't great but Maestro will probably be a defensive replacement for him most games which will minimize it somewhat. And if Parmelee isn't hitting, the team won't keep him out there.

 

I think by the end of the season, we'll have traded Willingham and you'll see an OF of Benson/Hicks/Arcia in Aug/Sept.

[ThePuck]

I'm concerned about the MI defense but not that concerned about the OF. Span/Revere were great but Revere made Span a better CFer, something the Nats will learn. Maestro, Hicks or Benson should be better than Span in CF. I think Hicks gets the nod for opening day and every scouting write up on him thinks he'll be a great defensive CFer. There might be questions about his bat but his defense should make him pretty good. Parmelee in right isn't great but Maestro will probably be a defensive replacement for him most games which will minimize it somewhat. And if Parmelee isn't hitting, the team won't keep him out there.

 

I think by the end of the season, we'll have traded Willingham and you'll see an OF of Benson/Hicks/Arcia in Aug/Sept.

 

Revere made Span a better CFer? How so?

[snepp]

Revere made Span a better CFer? How so?

 

Big smiles raise morale.

[mcrow]

I think on paper the Twins are better going into this ST than they peformed last season. However, it seems like the rotation always seems to under perform expectations so I'm being very cautious about it at this point. Joe Saunders might help if they get him but I don't really see him make that huge of a difference.

[PseudoSABR]

That's an awfully big assumption [that Plouffe will improve at 3b ths year].

No it's not. It's a reasonable assumption. Valencia played exclusively thirdbase and, evidently, had attitude issues that may have impacted his lack of improvement.

I heard that about Florimon last year and from what I saw, he wasn't nearly the wizard we've heard about. Given the flashes we saw of the skillset I'm not ruling this out as an upgrade, but I need to see the hype matched first because a month of observations were not encouraging. Dozier was pretty terrible in his stretch so it's possible.

The Twins seem to be giving the job to Florimon based soley on his defensive ability, so it's clear they see an improvement even if you don't.

 

Again, you argued it was "better" - to start sniping about honest takes and being glass half-empty is skewing the argument. Congrats on shifting the argument so you could take some sort of high ground, but that was never what I claimed. The OF has taken a massive downgrade and, as you said, the infield is probably a wash. (And it wasn't very good last year) It's worth noting that it could be a very big problem for our pitching staff, enough even to offset these meager upgrades.

Look, when you state that it's an "awfully big assumption" for a player to improve at a position he's ostensible still learning, people are going to wonder if you're being honest in your assessment. Maybe I'm being unfair, but lately it seems that you'll spin any contentious point so that it paints the Twins FO negatively. If there's any ambiguity, you (like a train of others posting lately) will argue tooth-and-nail that such ambiguity proves how stupid the Twins have been.

 

And for the record, I always have the higher ground.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Do the Twins have a decent shot at having a sub-5.00 SP ERA from last year's 5.40?

 

Absolutely.

 

Given the defensive holes hollowed out of the lineup and huge projected drop in offensive production, would a highly implausible, semi-miraculous, everything-goes-perfect, American League average 4.37 SP ERA make a material difference in the W-L column?

 

Nope.

 

Sorry, I'm not buying an automatic downgrade in the offense. You put an All-Star calibur Morneau into the middle of last year's lineup, replace Span and Revere with reasonable replacements, and you hold steady in runs scored right there. Forget the possibilities that Plouffe and Hicks/Benson and Doumit and even Mauer could ALL have better years. More than anything else, this season's offense will hinge on whether or not Morneau can round back into All-Star form. And I'd rate that proposition better than even money.

[Nick Nelson]

I'm hearing a lot about how the Twins shouldn't be expected to improve offensively this year. Point me to a position other than LF where they are unlikely to improve or maintain. I'm not seeing it.

[Brandon]

The Twins do have 4 potential 25-30 hr bats in the lineup this year. Mauer batting in front of all of them and Doumit somewhere in there too. As long as either Mastroianni or Hicks and one of the MI can get on base at a reasonable clip the offense should score enough. the defense will likely let a few more hits in RF but thats about it. Maybe Plouffe improves enough to offset that some. I believe we will have at lease 3 decent starters out of the bunch now if 2 more are atleast .500 record then we can compete. the bullpen will be likely average or slightly above. IMO there are more ifs than certainty on paper but that doesn't mean the talent isn't there to compete this year.

[FrodaddyG]

Sorry, I'm not buying an automatic downgrade in the offense. You put an All-Star calibur Morneau into the middle of last year's lineup, replace Span and Revere with reasonable replacements, and you hold steady in runs scored right there. Forget the possibilities that Plouffe and Hicks/Benson and Doumit and even Mauer could ALL have better years. More than anything else, this season's offense will hinge on whether or not Morneau can round back into All-Star form. And I'd rate that proposition better than even money.

Define "reasonable replacements"? For better or worse, Revere and Span were two of the Twins' best hitters last year. Those ABs will now be going to less-known quantities. As I stated in a much more thorough post elsewhere, there will be an awful lot (likely thousands) of ABs going to either proven-poor hitters or complete question marks. Without hitting on huge years from all of the established MLB-level hitters on the roster, it's going to be awfully hard to even maintain the middle of the pack offense they had last year, before their two primary table setters were dealt.

[iastfan112]

I'm hearing a lot about how the Twins shouldn't be expected to improve offensively this year. Point me to a position other than LF where they are unlikely to improve or maintain. I'm not seeing it.

 

Lots of question marks in CF, could see a slip there. Doumit was unusually healthy last year, could be the fact he could DH but I wouldn't count on him for 500+ PA again which could lead to some slippage at C. Plouffee is still very much a wildcard to me, wouldn't surprise me if his injury held him back but it could have just been one really hot streak of hitting for him. Carroll is old and could keep slipping like he did last year.

 

Now this would be very much a pessimists view if I thought all this would happen but some of it probably will. Actually, going back to the health point, no one in the lineup dealt with an injury that kept them out for long periods, will that luck hold?

[FrodaddyG]

I'm hearing a lot about how the Twins shouldn't be expected to improve offensively this year. Point me to a position other than LF where they are unlikely to improve or maintain. I'm not seeing it.

The two spots vacated by Revere and Span stand out. If he gets 500 PAs, is Parmelee replacing Revere's RF numbers (while not overly impressive) with the .229 hitter he was last year or something more closely resembling his minors numbers?

 

CF depends entirely on who gets the call out of the gate. Mussolini may not produce if called upon every day, and Hicks and Benson would most likely take some serious lumps in their first go-round on the big league squad.

 

Plouffe would be my other biggest question mark. Was his crazy 40 game stretch where he mashed a real indicator, or lightning in a bottle? He'll get a chance to prove himself this year, but even with his hot quarter season, he still struggled to get his average into the .260 range before tapering off. Maybe it was the injury that dragged him back down, but bear in mind that he only hit in the .235 range the year before as well.

 

And the MI, as you have pointed out, is a mess. When the thought "Boy, they're going to miss Casilla's production" crossed my mind, I took it as a terrible sign. Some combination of bad players that combined for about 500 ABs last year is instead going to get 1000-1200 PAs in the middle infield. It may be "maintaining" in that they'll have equally awful rate stats, but since WAR is an accrued stat, technically it could make the team worse. (In the WAR sense.)

 

TL;DR I have some doubts.

[Nick Nelson]

For better or worse, Revere and Span were two of the Twins' best hitters last year. Those ABs will now be going to less-known quantities.

It's easy to not notice this because Span had a solid year, but the Twins were way below-average in CF -- .682 OPS vs. AL avg of .757. Right field was also hardly a strength, as they cycled through various lousy options early in the year before settling on Revere, whose production was fine for a great defensive CF but paltry for RF.

 

Parmelee is an unknown quantity, to be sure, but at the very least he's a guy whose asset is his bat. He fits in RF. And while I admit I'm taking a bit of a leap of faith on Hicks, the bar was not set high by last year's .267/.325/.357 line in CF.

 

Losing Span and Revere hurts the defense more than anything. I don't see them being huge losses for the offense given what the Twins have in terms of replacements.

[Nick Nelson]

If he gets 500 PAs, is Parmelee replacing Revere's RF numbers (while not overly impressive) with the .229 hitter he was last year or something more closely resembling his minors numbers?

Parmelee is a better hitter than Revere. I don't know how you could argue otherwise. Their offensive value might be a little closer when you consider Revere's base-stealing ability but still. Parmelee was better in the minors and has been better in early MLB exposure. He's certainly a better fit in an offensive position like RF.

 

And the MI, as you have pointed out, is a mess.

Par for the course.

[Riverbrian]

Offensively... I worry about the top of the order. Who will bat in front of Mauer, Willingham and Morneau. That's the sore spot... I think Morneau will rebound and I think Plouffe can bang out 30 dingers.

 

There is some offense here.

 

Florimon can hit .220 at the bottom of the order. He just has to settle in. I saw the flashes on defense... He can be special and the point made earlier that Florimon is starting 2013 over better potential hitters tells me that the Twins think so as well.

[The Wise One]

Glass 3/4 full of Koolaid kind of guy

Ploufe stays healthy and streaky

Dozier plays like he did in 2011 with the Rock Cats

Paramalee hits for a .750 OPS

Spilled the 1/4 of a glass on whater position Dozier doesn't play.

I did not even have to count on Hicks or Benson for 3 upgrades from last year

 

No Koolaid

Last June was a fluke

Last year wasn't a fluke

Parmalee is a AAAA guy

Benson and Hicks are busts

[FrodaddyG]

It's easy to not notice this because Span had a solid year, but the Twins were way below-average in CF -- .682 OPS vs. AL avg of .757. Right field was also hardly a strength, as they cycled through various lousy options early in the year before settling on Revere, whose production was fine for a great defensive CF but paltry for RF.

 

Parmelee is an unknown quantity, to be sure, but at the very least he's a guy whose asset is his bat. He fits in RF. And while I admit I'm taking a bit of a leap of faith on Hicks, the bar was not set high by last year's .267/.325/.357 line in CF.

 

Losing Span and Revere hurts the defense more than anything. I don't see them being huge losses for the offense given what the Twins have in terms of replacements.

I won't argue it's a pretty low bar. But with what could very well be 130+ games of (essentially) rookies in CF between, (my best guess) primarily Benson and Hicks, even replicating an upper 600s OPS could be a tall order for 2013. I hope they prove me wrong, as I really like both of them as all-around prospects. I'm just not sure if 2013 is anything but a "get your MLB reps in" year for either of them, with an eye towards 2014 and beyond.

 

I'm also not arguing that Parmelee isn't the superior hitter to Revere. (I think my Revere stance has been well established over the years.) I've held out hope for Parmelee since he was drafted if for no other reason than it may inspire the FO to roll with more raw power hitters in the draft if he succeeds. I hope he evolves into the 800+ OPS masher he has the tools to become, but as a three true outcomes guy, if the K portion of the three remains skewed high it could marginalize his one plus asset. (Although as a 1B, his glove is far less of a liability.) However, I think by midseason he's the everyday 1B guy, (I think Morneau gets dealt) most likely opening up RF for one of either the Hicks/Benson leftover or possibly a flourishing-in-AAA Arcia, bringing about a similar CF-like question mark there.

[Thrylos]

Hendriks will go north with the team over Gibson IMO. The Twins would be making a huge mistake not to allow Gibson some time at AAA and get an extra year of team control. If there was a chance the Twins would compete I could see it, but bringing Hicks and Gibson north would be stupid stupid stupid stupid.

 

They already have 6 years of control. He is 25. So they control up to his age 31 season, which is just past his prime. No need to control post prime years.

[BrentMpls]

Ever the contrarian, Patrick Reusse ...

 

Exactly my thought when I read the thread title.

 

Well he's been doing that forever. That way he can take either side of an issue and claim the other stance was just a joke or to get people riled up.

[snepp]

Florimon can hit .220 at the bottom of the order.

 

Not only "can" he hit like **** at the bottom of the order, he most likely will.

 

 

Yay!

[Joe A. Preusser]

They already have 6 years of control. He is 25. So they control up to his age 31 season, which is just past his prime. No need to control post prime years.

 

I can't agree. What if he's a perennial All-Star by that time? Wouldn't you want that year of control then vs. ~ 4-5 starts at the beginning of this season? Cost/benifit is off the charts.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Not only "can" he hit like **** at the bottom of the order, he most likely will.

 

 

Yay!

 

Can anyone tell me (without looking it up) what Tim Laudner hit for the '87 twins?

[Kwak]

I seem to remember quite a lot of games where the Twins were basically KO'd by the 5th inning, and then slightly reduce the deficit making the final score not quite so lop-sided. My point is that a solid improvement in the rotation could occur but still lose as many games--though by one run instead of several. This would qualify as improving the rotation, the team, and yes to a degree fan entertainment ("...hey they're down only one, who knows?") but not materially affect the season's W-L record. That is my projection for 2013.

[snepp]

If I had to do it without looking it up, I'd say something like a .670 OPS.

 

'87 also was, if I recall correctly, one of (if not the worst) offensive seasons of his career.

[BrentMpls]

Can anyone tell me (without looking it up) what Tim Laudner hit for the '87 twins?

 

Not much that is for sure, but I think most remember him the Evans pickoff fondly!

[Craig Arko]

Can anyone tell me (without looking it up) what Tim Laudner hit for the '87 twins?

 

A buck-98. I remember it well, because we nicknamed a dog Bucky in his honor. Harper hit like .325 in 1991 but TK would cry every time he was behind the plate.

 

Everything's a tradeoff.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They already have 6 years of control. He is 25. So they control up to his age 31 season, which is just past his prime. No need to control post prime years.

 

There is always a reason to try to extend a good player's cost-controlled years. Or do you not think Tampa would really like one more cost-controlled year of Shields right now (not saying Tampa did anything wrong with Shields, just saying that he got a relatively late start as a 24 year old)?

[TheLeviathan]

No it's not. It's a reasonable assumption. Valencia played exclusively thirdbase and, evidently, had attitude issues that may have impacted his lack of improvement.

 

So to back up your assumption you base Valencia's regression on attitude issues? Here's the deal, every year, across the league, we hear the "It's his first full season playing a position so no question he'll be better!" and we could come up with a multitude of examples to the contrary. Hell, just a few years ago we heard that Nishioka going back to his natural position would fix things. Plouffe couldn't make a simple throw to first just two seasons ago, I'm far from convinced about anything with him at this point.

 

The Twins seem to be giving the job to Florimon based soley on his defensive ability, so it's clear they see an improvement even if you don't.

 

Or maybe they gave him the job because they have absolutely nothing else? Just throwing that out there.

 

Look, when you state that it's an "awfully big assumption" for a player to improve at a position he's ostensible still learning,

 

We could teach Mauer CF and he might "get better" and still not be any good. My point originally was that the OF defense is going to be worse....MUCH worse. And it is. How much "better" the infield is minimal at best and doesn't address the largest step back.