Should Twins Be Willing To Part With A Draft Pick For A Free Agent?

[John Bonnes]

Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer. It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

 

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

[johnnydakota]

Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer. It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

 

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

haren is off the market is now a chicago cub

[johnnydakota]

Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer. It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

 

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

haren is off the market is now a chicago cub

 

i can see tomarrows mlb rumors , the minnesota twins were in on haren heavy till the angels wouldnt pick up all of dans 2013 salary and throw in trout for nick blackburn , terry will be quoted as saying he cant understand why he couldnt make the deal? but hey kevin corriea and liriano are still out there

[Thrylos]

I think that the Twins are better of to try to get good pitchers through trades. The free agent market is overpriced esp. with the loss of draft picks

[kab21]

Dempster is a bad example since he was traded midseason.

 

If the pitcher is worth multiple years and 10+M/yr then he's worth a second round pick.

[Mike Sixel]

What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

[Top Gun]

Haren is a free agent.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Certainly not.

[Seth Stohs]

Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

 

OF Josh Hamilton

OF Michael Bourn

OF Nick Swisher

RHP Hiroki Kuroda

RH RP Rafael Soriano

RHP Kyle Lohse

OF BJ Upton

1B Adam Laroche

 

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.

[johnnydakota]

Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

 

OF Josh Hamilton

OF Michael Bourn

OF Nick Swisher

RHP Hiroki Kuroda

RH RP Rafael Soriano

RHP Kyle Lohse

OF BJ Upton

1B Adam Laroche

 

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.

grienke was given a offer?

[Shane Wahl]

Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer. It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

 

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

 

I would say yes but only if there was some other trade of Span or Morneau or someone that brought back at least one good+ prospect back. In a vacuum? No.

[JP3700]

Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

 

OF Josh Hamilton

OF Michael Bourn

OF Nick Swisher

RHP Hiroki Kuroda

RH RP Rafael Soriano

RHP Kyle Lohse

OF BJ Upton

1B Adam Laroche

 

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.

grienke was given a offer?

 

No, Seth's list is correct. Greinke was traded mid season so he doesn't qualify for draft pick compensation.

[kab21]

 

No, Seth's list is correct. Greinke was traded mid season so he doesn't qualify for draft pick compensation.

 

I'm surprised that neither Marcum and Jackson got offers (possibly a few others). Greinke, Dempster and Sanchez were traded during the season so they don't qualify. I think Kuroda almost to go back to the Yankees due to the offer since it doesn't make sense to part with a 1st rd pick (the best 20 teams) to sign him.

[Rick Blaine]

I think that the Twins are better of to try to get good pitchers through trades. The free agent market is overpriced esp. with the loss of draft picks

 

My thoughts exactly...

[Paul Pleiss]

I don't think the Twins will be competing for a WS championship in the next 2 seasons, so I think the smart move is to say no to the high dollar free agents that would cost a draft pick in return. Play for the long haul, and when (hopefully) our propspects in the mid-low levels of the system start to perform, then you go out and add a piece here or there and pay the price, be in draft picks or prospects, to put the team in contention for a WS title.

 

-Paul

----------------------------

Follow me, @BaseballPirate, on Twitter

www.PuckettsPond.com

[gunnarthor]

What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

 

Twins have had a decent run of sucess with 2nd round picks, believe it or not. From 01-09 Baker, Benson, Crain, Slowey and Swarzak all made at least an appearance in the majors, the Twins traded 3 other 2nd rounders (Bullock, Tyler and Landergraf) for Mlers Diamond, Cabrera and Casilla.

 

Looking at the list of QO that Seth posted, I don't think we'll lose a 2nd rounder. Obviously, I'd get rid of one for Hamilton but the Twins aren't signing him.

[John Bonnes]

Well, I'm a little slow on the new CBA rules, obviously. I didn't realize that midseason trades could not get a qualifying offer. That's an interesing twist. I can see an imminent free agent with a no-trade clause waiving it so he doesn't get a qualifying offer in his offseason. I wouldn't be shocked if that's why Dempster ultimately agreed to a trade.

 

Seth is right. This doesn't really affect the Twins this year. That's really good news.

[diehardtwinsfan]

What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

 

The odds of a second round pick making it are far higher than you'd think. A good class will net you 2 or 3 decent major leaguers, and most of those guys will come from the top 5 picks, so I wouldn't throw one away lightly. I do think that if the Twins were a player or two away from a realistic shot at the series, then yes, by all means sacrifice one. But this team has some significant rebuilding and will need a decent dose of luck to make the playoffs next year, so no, I wouldn't give away a 2nd rounder for that.

[Twins GFP]

Considering the Twins threw away a draft pick for Capps, nothing would surprise me. That being said, I would find it hard to believe the Twins would give up that high of a pick for Lohse or Swisher (nobody else is really up their alley cost or position wise).

[jorgenswest]

What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

 

Twins have had a decent run of sucess with 2nd round picks, believe it or not. From 01-09 Baker, Benson, Crain, Slowey and Swarzak all made at least an appearance in the majors, the Twins traded 3 other 2nd rounders (Bullock, Tyler and Landergraf) for Mlers Diamond, Cabrera and Casilla.

 

Looking at the list of QO that Seth posted, I don't think we'll lose a 2nd rounder. Obviously, I'd get rid of one for Hamilton but the Twins aren't signing him.

 

Of 56 picks, 6 have a career WAR over 10. Most recent picks still have a lot of time to get there. Based on Twins picks, I would think it is less than a 25% chance that a second round pick will make a significant contribution. Complete list at

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&

[Bark's Lounge]

I don't think the Twins will be competing for a WS championship in the next 2 seasons, so I think the smart move is to say no to the high dollar free agents that would cost a draft pick in return. Play for the long haul, and when (hopefully) our propspects in the mid-low levels of the system start to perform, then you go out and add a piece here or there and pay the price, be in draft picks or prospects, to put the team in contention for a WS title.

 

-Paul

----------------------------

Follow me, @BaseballPirate, on Twitter

www.PuckettsPond.com

 

Bark's Lounge endorses this message.

[Mike Sixel]

So, 3 more years of sucking?

[johnnydakota]

Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

 

OF Josh Hamilton

OF Michael Bourn

OF Nick Swisher

RHP Hiroki Kuroda

RH RP Rafael Soriano

RHP Kyle Lohse

OF BJ Upton

1B Adam Laroche

 

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.

grienke was given a offer?

 

No, Seth's list is correct. Greinke was traded mid season so he doesn't qualify for draft pick compensation.

thanks i had forgotten the entire year rule

[johnnydakota]

So, 3 more years of sucking?

 

depends on who takes over for the 3 stooges and when ...could be another 70s decade for us ,if jipppy pohlad doesnt cut bait and start fishin

[TheLeviathan]

So, 3 more years of sucking?

 

Tossing tons of money into an overpriced market and giving away high draft picks sounds like a good recipe to guarantee you suck down the line for only a marginal shot at being ok next year. This is not how you build a strong organization.

[70charger]

So, 3 more years of sucking?

 

depends on who takes over for the 3 stooges and when ...could be another 70s decade for us ,if jipppy pohlad doesnt cut bait and start fishin

 

You're like a broken record. You're like Peter Griffin playing "Surfin' Bird." Just shut up with that schtick already.

 

And by the way, I think Paul Pleiss is right. We're not contending very soon, so stay away from the high-dollar guys, start winning a bit more each year, and build from your farm system up.

[Mike Sixel]

So you are basically saying, " suck for 2 to 3 more years". That is the effect of not signing free agents for the going rate and not trading for guys, isn't it? They have no pitching. It isn't even that they have bad pitching, I am not sure they even have 5 starters on the 40 man roster. If that is your plan, you have to deal every veteran, right?

[Winston Smith]

What's the point they aren't going to sign any of those guys anyway!