The Trade Route

[scottz]

Nothing in what the Reds have done indicates they are trading Sonny Gray or any of the others in their (current likely) rotation (Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, Tyler Mahle). I'd love Gray, but he's staying put.

 

If the Cubs are truly looking to cut payroll and would listen to offers on Darvish, I'd overpay on prospects to pick up a guy who's remaining contract (4 years/$84 million) seems downright reasonable, even if he fades in 2022 and 2023.

 

What's an overpay on prospects? I don't know because that's not my job, but as a fan, I don't care. Give up more than you think you should have to if that is what it takes to make the trade. If getting Darvish is fan fiction, then I'm sorry for participating.

 

We need somebody *significantly* better than Gibson, otherwise our rotation = 2019 = not good enough in the playoffs.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

True, but the Reds also just traded for Bauer, signed Moustakas, etc.

And Sonny Gray is likely better than Ray or Jon Gray, and he is controlled longer too.

(As an aside, why do we have to discuss 3 pitchers named Gray, Gray, and Ray together )

 

Well, if Goose Gossage was still an option, we could be talking about Gray Goose. 

[dex8425]

 

Nothing in what the Reds have done indicates they are trading Sonny Gray or any of the others in their (current likely) rotation (Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, Tyler Mahle). I'd love Gray, but he's staying put.

 

 

We need somebody *significantly* better than Gibson, otherwise our rotation = 2019 = not good enough in the playoffs.

Agreed, especially because I'd be willing to bet that 2020 Gibson is better than 2019 Gibson. I'll be ticked if the one FA pitcher we sign is worse than 2020 Gibson for the Rangers. 

 

Reds are not trading Sonny Gray. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the scary thing is that this thread is at nearly 100 posts and ultimately we have maybe what... 3 names worth pursuing? 

 

This team needs pitching. They're going to need to decide where they want to overpay. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Agreed, especially because I'd be willing to bet that 2020 Gibson is better than 2019 Gibson. I'll be ticked if the one FA pitcher we sign is worse than 2020 Gibson for the Rangers. 

 

Reds are not trading Sonny Gray. 

 

Just wait till the trade deadline... Kyle Gibson dealt to Twins for Royce Lewis. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Padres are apparently trying to dump Myers contract, wonder if they would be willing to part with Mackensie Gore in order to do so.  Myers is owed about $68.5 million over the next three years (+ the buyout for his 4th year) and may only be usable as a platoon bat against lefties, so they're going to have to include a decent amount to get rid of him. Twins may have to throw in some assets as well, but there's your potential future Cole or Verlander. 

 

Why would the Padres, who are either going to try to compete this year or next, trade Gore?

 

No chance.

[USAFChief]

 

Well, if Goose Gossage was still an option, we could be talking about Gray Goose. 

Dude, this is a Minnesota thread.

 

It's duck.  

 

Duck, duck...grey duck.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think the scary thing is that this thread is at nearly 100 posts and ultimately we have maybe what... 3 names worth pursuing? 

 

This team needs pitching. They're going to need to decide where they want to overpay. 

 

 

I like the idea of Darvish as a bounce back guy

 

I like the idea of Gray or similar to get a relocation/ Wes Johnson bump

 

I am good with the right deal for an older guy like Price or similar

 

I love the idea of Snell if there is a trade to be made

 

I love the idea of Ray if there is a trade to be made

 

I love the fantasy of Sale since the Sox want to shed payroll?

 

They need to acquire someone that can be a top of the rotation arm.  

 

I'm pretty OK with all of these actually, pending availability and cost of course.

[brockbesler]

I’m beginning to feel less and less optimistic that the Twins will sign a pitcher this offseason. They just as well turn their full attention towards trades. Call up the Marlins and see what it will take to get Caleb Smith. He could be a solid backend rotation piece, with upside. If he cuts down on the homers, he could be very successful.

Then, call Arizona and Colorado. I really like Ray and I think a move out of Colorado could really help Gray. My preference is Ray, in the hopes he will like it in Minnesota and re-sign there. It seems there’s a lot of untapped potential with both these guys.

I really have no idea what it would take to land any of these pitchers, but this might be the best way to improve the rotation without getting locked into a huge contract.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I’m not wild about Boyd. I think they should check in with Tampa about Blake Snell. Tampa is a contending team, but they have done some unexpected things in the past to save money. They should also get on the phone with Atlanta to see if the Hamels signing has made any of their young pitchers available.

I like that idea. To me Snell is a step up from Berríos. I’d be willing to even go so far to trade Graterol, Balazovic, or Duran for Snell. Tampa might bite if we give up one of our top pitching prospects for a pitcher we can put at the top of the rotation.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I think the scary thing is that this thread is at nearly 100 posts and ultimately we have maybe what... 3 names worth pursuing? 

 

This team needs pitching. They're going to need to decide where they want to overpay. 

 

That's just it. There isn't alot out there as far as trade targets go IMO. Their best chance was last year with Syndergaard. I would go down that road again if I am the Twins. No, you can't have Buxton and Lewis/Kiriloff. But, yes, you can have one of them and a guy from 4-10 from our prospect list. That is a good offer for him that they would have to seriously consider. 

[Battle ur tail off]

Also would be interested going after Snell or Sale. 

 

To me, the rest are not worth any of our top prospects. That said, if they can be had for less(guys outside our top 4-5), then go for it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I like that idea. To me Snell is a step up from Berríos. I’d be willing to even go so far to trade Graterol, Balazovic, or Duran for Snell. Tampa might bite if we give up one of our top pitching prospects for a pitcher we can put at the top of the rotation.

As a rough estimate, baseballtradevalues.com gives Snell a median estimated trade value of 93.8, which is higher than any Twin. (Kepler is at 85.1)

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Our top prospect is Lewis at 68.1, followed by Kirilloff at 54.7, then Graterol at 35.7. Duran and Balazovic clock in at 16 and 13.6, respectively.

 

Now, Tampa is sometimes a motivated seller, but I'm not sure they'd be *that* motivated to move Snell right now. Look how long they held on to Archer until they found the right deal (which turned out very well for them).

 

I think you'd need to give up likely Lewis or at least Kirilloff, plus other pieces, to get Snell right now. (If the Rays were willing to take less than that, frankly I'd be concerned we were buying damaged goods!)

[nicksaviking]

 

Also would be interested going after Snell or Sale. 

 

To me, the rest are not worth any of our top prospects. That said, if they can be had for less(guys outside our top 4-5), then go for it.

 

I'd be in on Snell or Sale. I'm not sure that others are worth top prospects, but if other clubs insist on one for a starter that I still mostly like, I wouldn't hold on too hard to Kirilloff. The Twins have so many corner bat options at all levels and no where to put them currently. The Twins can afford to loose a gamble on a corner bat.

[nicksaviking]

As for Snell, I was thinking Kirilloff, Graterol, Thorpe and Celestino? 

[HawksNest]

Marlins apparently want a left-handed hitting outfielder per Heyman.

 

Call them and offer Rosario and prospects to see if we can take Alcantara off their hands?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As for Snell, I was thinking Kirilloff, Graterol, Thorpe and Celestino? 

That's an interesting offer, for sure. Would make the Rays think, at least.

 

The things that might give them pause are that Kirilloff is perhaps a less-than-elite corner player, and Graterol's health and innings history. They might think that Snell's demonstrated upside is high enough, and his contract friendly enough, that they may be fielding comparable offers for awhile yet, even if Snell doesn't get back to 2018 form. (And the Chris Archer example suggests they might be right!) So no urgency on taking that offer now.

 

 

Swap Lewis in for Kirilloff and you could definitely get it down now, though, I'd imagine. But it would definitely be a high cost!

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Marlins apparently want a left-handed hitting outfielder per Heyman.

 

Call them and offer Rosario and prospects to see if we can take Alcantara off their hands?

On the surface, the Marlins probably don't need to use top trade assets to address their left-handed hitting outfielder needs.

 

But then again, they are the Marlins, so who knows -- and it behooves us to stay in contact with them!

 

FWIW, baseballtradevalues.com has Rosario at 10.8 and Alcantra at 27.4. So it might take a Balazovic (13.6) or Duran (16) to make up the difference -- I don't think the usual prospect throw-ins like Rooker or Thorpe would get it done.

 

Caleb Smith (14.1) might be more attainable, although he's still a year away from arb so I suspect the Marlins would rather bet on him one more year than cash him in right now.

[HawksNest]

 

On the surface, the Marlins probably don't need to use top trade assets to address their left-handed hitting outfielder needs.

 

But then again, they are the Marlins, so who knows -- and it behooves us to stay in contact with them!

 

FWIW, baseballtradevalues.com has Rosario at 10.8 and Alcantra at 27.4. So it might take a Balazovic (13.6) or Duran (16) to make up the difference -- I don't think the usual prospect throw-ins like Rooker or Thorpe would get it done.

 

Caleb Smith (14.1) might be more attainable, although he's still a year away from arb so I suspect the Marlins would rather bet on him one more year than cash him in right now.

 

I'd do Rosario and Balazovic or Duran for Alcantara. Sign me up for that

[HawksNest]

 

Marlins apparently want a left-handed hitting outfielder per Heyman.

 

Call them and offer Rosario and prospects to see if we can take Alcantara off their hands?

 

@https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/1204812403986202624?s=20

 

"Marlins have discussed Eddie Rosario with the Twins, per source. Asking price also extremely high. Miami’s new Bench Coach/Offensive Coordinator James Rowson has familiarity with Rosario."

 

Boom.

[SwainZag]

 

I'd do Rosario and Balazovic or Duran for Alcantara. Sign me up for that

 

How talented is Alcantara?  FIP 4.55, 6.9 K/9, 3.69 BB/9.  Gibson had much better numbers than he did last season.  I'm not seeing how he makes the team that much better unless we are banking on huge improvement.

 

Wouldn't Balazovic been a similiar rated prospect that Alcantara was?   Would seem like an odd move to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd do Rosario and Balazovic or Duran for Alcantara. Sign me up for that

I suspect another piece would be involved too, especially since the Marlins would be taking on all the money in that deal. Is it too late for them to throw in Wei Yi Chen's remaining salary obligations? They'd obviously have to think highly of Balazovic or Duran too.

 

And maybe I'm light? Alcantra is still 2 years away from arb -- Marlins might still bet on him for a breakout season. They didn't trade Ozuna or Realmuto early, after all. Zac Gallen might have been the exception rather than the rule, and they certainly didn't trade him for anyone like Rosario, but rather an up-the-middle top 100 prospect.

[AZTwin]

I would do that last deal in a heartbeat which means AZ likely wouldn’t

I wouldn’t. You are trading 2 guys that are contributing soon in a playoff race and both guys have higher upside for that playoff race you are trading for rendering it pointless. Larnach I understand since there is some organizational depth there. I would see if they would do Kirilloff or Larnach straight up. If not you could package Larnach with a guy like Baddoo and that should get it done

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How talented is Alcantara?  FIP 4.55, 6.9 K/9, 3.69 BB/9.  Gibson had much better numbers than he did last season.  I'm not seeing how he makes the team that much better unless we are banking on huge improvement.

 

Wouldn't Balazovic been a similiar rated prospect that Alcantara was?   Would seem like an odd move to me.

That's fair. Alcantra was obviously only 23, in his first full MLB season, but improvement isn't guaranteed, especially with Alcantra's non-elite history. (Is he a ground-ball artist or something? Low K rates, in the majors and minors.) I'm indifferent but I wouldn't blame the FO if they liked him for some reason (although I reserve the right to blame them if they turn out to be wrong ).

 

From the Marlins side, they will want to be compensated for forgoing the chance at an Alcantra breakout. And that might be too much for the Twins side to pay right now.

[AZTwin]

I'd do Rosario and Balazovic or Duran for Alcantara. Sign me up for that

No. Alcantara is not a good pitcher. He projects to be a 4 starter at best or more likely, a bullpen arm. I wouldn’t do any of those players straight up for Alcantara. I might do alcantara straight up for Rortvedt but I’m not sure the Twins would be interested in that...

[nicksaviking]

 

How talented is Alcantara?  FIP 4.55, 6.9 K/9, 3.69 BB/9.  Gibson had much better numbers than he did last season.  I'm not seeing how he makes the team that much better unless we are banking on huge improvement.

 

Wouldn't Balazovic been a similiar rated prospect that Alcantara was?   Would seem like an odd move to me.

 

I like Alcantara's velocity and four seam/slider usage, but I'd need to know more about why he doesn't strike anyone out. If that's not something that has a clear and obvious fix to it I wouldn't be interested.

[AZTwin]

@https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/1204812403986202624?s=20

 

"Marlins have discussed Eddie Rosario with the Twins, per source. Asking price also extremely high. Miami’s new Bench Coach/Offensive Coordinator James Rowson has familiarity with Rosario."

 

Boom.

Once again I seem to be plugged in pretty good

[AZTwin]

As for Snell, I was thinking Kirilloff, Graterol, Thorpe and Celestino?

Rays would do that in a heartbeat. Take out Graterol and the Twins might start considering it

[SwainZag]

 

That's fair. Alcantra was obviously only 23, in his first full MLB season, but improvement isn't guaranteed, especially with Alcantra's non-elite history. (Is he a ground-ball artist or something? Low K rates, in the majors and minors.) I'm indifferent but I wouldn't blame the FO if they liked him for some reason (although I reserve the right to blame them if they turn out to be wrong ).

 

From the Marlins side, they will want to be compensated for forgoing the chance at an Alcantra breakout. And that might be too much for the Twins side to pay right now.

 

Gotcha.  Admittingly do not know much about the guy, but his numbers didn't jump out to much.  He has never had great control and despite throwing fairly hard his K numbers past A ball are not impressive.  Would just seem like an odd move for the Twins to give up an asset in Eddie and a high upside prospect in Balazovic to acquire him....unless they saw something untapped in him.

 

Albeit in a smaller sample size, Smeltzer's rate numbers were similar to Alcantara's last year.

[nicksaviking]

Also, the Marlins claim that the Rangers asking price for Nomar Mazara was high, despite the fact that all they got was the Sox #7 prospect who hasn't yet reached AA. 

 

No idea what the Twins are asking for, and I don't think Mazara is all that great, but sounds more like the Marlins are a bit full of wind.