Thinking Through the Potential Twins ALDS Roster

[Only Here in Negative]

This assumes the Twins make the ALDS and not the Wild Card game, which is a totally different beast. Don't worry, I've knocked on wood. Also, lets try to keep this focused on the playoff roster and not the deadline or the FO. Those threads have had their day, we're looking forward. Okay, let's go.

 

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Last year in the ALDS, three teams carried 11 pitchers and the Yankees carried 12. So we’ll carry at least 11 and consider a 12th. But first the givens for position players:

 

Catchers (2): Garver and Castro
Infielders (4): Polanco, Sano, Cron, Schoop
Outfielders (3) Buxton, Kepler, Rosario
DH (1): Cruz
Marwin (1): Marwin (who I see as the 4th OF when the Twins are healthy)

 

That's 11 locked position players. These are the pitchers I see as givens:

 

Starters (4): Berrios, Pineda, Gibson, Odo
Relievers (6): Rogers, Romo, Dyson, May, Duffey, Perez

 

Ten relievers brings us to 21 players and my first apology. I felt bad not including Arraez above, he’s definitely #22 and I’d expect to see him starting against righties while Schoop goes against lefties. More of a thought process thing than a comment on his status on a playoff roster. He's a lock and I’d be shocked if he didn’t have more at-bats than Schoop by the end of a series.

 

The Twins will also certainly carry at least one more reliever. The handedness will be interesting there. I made Perez the starter who becomes the 6th reliever because I think he pairs best as a handcuff for each right-handed starter. That said, if one of the starters bombs in September, they could easily be the one moving to the pen. Regardless, I think the Twins will have their 7th reliever be a lefty since even if Perez is in the pen, they will view him as more of a long-reliever handcuff-type for a starter who leaves early or a pitch-him-til-he-drops option for a game that goes to extras. Therefore, I think you’re looking at one of Smeltzer or Thorpe for spot #23. (And I personally loved the Twins deadline but do think they erred in not getting a cheap veteran LOOGY for that spot, I like Thorpe and Smeltzer but will not enjoy them facing a tough lefty in a big spot. Would've been an easy upgrade, even if it meant finding a guy with an option for August bullpen shuffling.)

 

So for those final two spots you’re looking at Adrianza, Cave, and Astudillo for position players or else a 12th reliever. Neither the Yankees nor the Astros have a ton of lefties in the lineup so I think you’ll see a right-handed reliever as a candidate. That means one of Hildy/Harper/Littel/Graterol/Alcala. I’ll be watching all September to see who gets hot from that group, particularly the latter two. If no one does, you’ll potentially see two position players.

 

Of those position players, Adrianza makes the most sense. He’s a late-inning defensive replacement for Sano (though if Cron continues to crater, you may see Sano at 1B and Marwin at 3B in the playoffs) and his bat has been hot for two months now. Cave is relatively redundant when the Twins are healthy since he’s a 5th OF (and is he that much better than Arraez out there?) Astudillo is more interesting if he gets hot. Having a 3rd catcher can be useful for extra innings in the playoffs so I’d probably go with Astudillo if they don’t go with an 8th pitcher . If nothing else, his contact bat could be great off the bench in a runner-on-third-with-one-out situation. (As an aside, one of my few real criticisms of Rocco has been his inability to get Garver time at 1B – why is Adrianza ever playing there when you can get Garver’s bat in the lineup? It’s not injury, since a 1B can shift to C if something untoward happens.)

 

It should be noted that nowhere on here do you see a pinch-runner type. That’s my final small criticism of the Twins’ playoff prep. Adrianza has been a key player this year but he’s largely redundant in the playoffs unless the Twins reach the World Series and are playing by NL rules. The Twins are unlikely to pinch hit multiple times in a game before that point so his only value is as a pinch runner. He's definitely better than Sano or Cruz on the basepaths but he's not that much better. The Twins would be much better off with a speed-first guy who can steal a base or score from first on any double -- but that guy isn’t currently on the 40 man. It’ll be interesting to see what the Twins do with the open 40 man spot before they hit the end of the month. Everyone hopes they add Graterol or Alcala to that open spot in case they are playoff-ready but if the Twins decide not to, will they find a speed-only guy in AA/AAA and add him? Might be a savvy move. It should also be noted that the Twins could open a second 40-man spots by moving Gonsalves to the 60 day DL. Gonsalves' spot would be an ideal spot for a speedy minor-league veteran who you wouldn't mind DFAing in the offseason. You heard it here first. Unless someone else said that elsewhere in which case, you heard it plagiarized here.

 

So my guess at a playoff roster:

 

Starters (4):
Berrios
Gibson
Odorizzi
Pineda

 

Relievers (7):
Perez
Rogers
Dyson
Romo
Duffey
May
Smeltzer

 

DH (1):
Cruz

 

Catchers (2):
Garver
Castro

 

Infielders (6):
Cron
Schoop
Arraez
Polanco
Sano
Adrianza

 

Outfielders (4):
Buxton
Kepler
Rosario
Gonzalez

 

25th Man:
Astudillo isn’t going to get enough at-bats in September if this stays close so I don't see him forcing himself on the roster. Cave adds nothing and is about to lose playing time (and his 25 man spot for a few days) with Buck back. Given the Twins issues with start length and the potential for quick hooks, they’ll go with a reliever. Littel probably deserves it but I’m going to go with my heart and say Graterol shows enough down the stretch to make the roster.

 

Thoughts?

[Only Here in Negative]

If Perez moves to the rotation, you could potentially see Thorpe and Smeltzer if the Twins want two longer relievers. I think you'd only see this if there are major red flags down the stretch for 3-4 starters. But worth considering. At that point, you could even see the unthinkable 13 man staff on the roster and Adrianza taking a seat. Seems unlikely but it'd be hard to argue that Adrianza provides more value than the ability to bullpen a game.

 

Hopefully doesn't come down to that.

[SwainZag]

 

If Perez moves to the rotation, you could potentially see Thorpe and Smeltzer if the Twins want two longer relievers. I think you'd only see this if there are major red flags down the stretch for 3-4 starters. But worth considering. At that point, you could even see the unthinkable 13 man staff on the roster and Adrianza taking a seat. Seems unlikely but it'd be hard to argue that Adrianza provides more value than the ability to bullpen a game.

 

Hopefully doesn't come down to that.

 

A 13 man staff in a 5 game series is just awful roster management.  Never will happen.  

[Only Here in Negative]

 

A 13 man staff in a 5 game series is just awful roster management.  Never will happen.  

 

Agreed. I think it would take multiple injuries/flameouts and is super unlikely.

 

That said, when I look at how unlikely the Twins are to use Adrianza in the series for anything meaningful, part of me wishes that they'll have so many strong relief options that they think about leaving him off. Adrianza is really only useful if you have multiple day-to-day injuries that don't allow you to comfortably pull a guy from the roster and replace him.* Isn't it more likely that the Twins would use an extra reliever (assuming Littel or Thorpe pitch well down the stretch) in an extra inning or short-start game than need Adrianza to come off the bench?

 

Now I've kind of talked myself into that 13th pitcher. Twins aren't going to go far if they don't win the close games in extras and another reliever would be useful.

 

* Even then, I'm sure you could fake an injury to a Thorpe or Smeltzer and get Adrianza in.

[SwainZag]

 

Agreed. I think it would take multiple injuries/flameouts and is super unlikely.

 

That said, when I look at how unlikely the Twins are to use Adrianza in the series for anything meaningful, part of me wishes that they'll have so many strong relief options that they think about leaving him off. Adrianza is really only useful if you have multiple day-to-day injuries that don't allow you to comfortably pull a guy from the roster and replace him.* Isn't it more likely that the Twins would use an extra reliever (assuming Littel or Thorpe pitch well down the stretch) in an extra inning or short-start game than need Adrianza to come off the bench?

 

Now I've kind of talked myself into that 13th pitcher. Twins aren't going to go far if they don't win the close games in extras and another reliever would be useful.

 

* Even then, I'm sure you could fake an injury to a Thorpe or Smeltzer and get Adrianza in.

 

You don't need to fake any injuries.  Anyone on the 40 man roster can be part of the playoff roster.  Adrianza can play all over the field and take this situation into account.  9th inning, tie game, 1 out and Miguel Sano is standing on 2nd base.  Adrianza is your guy.  This is a much, much, much more likely scenerio than ever having to use a 13th pitcher in a 5 game series.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If Houston/NY do not have those left handed bats, then I think you see Smeltzer left off, and a surprise add like Alcala or Graterol. That would be fun, as no one on either Houston or NY has seen either of those guys.

 

Another good point you made is having a fast pinch runner on the bench, just in case. KC was able to roster Terrance Gore. I thought the Twins signed a minor league guy who could fill that role, but I don’t know how much you trust a guy like that, who has never played a down. Maybe theSeptember call ups will enlighten us.

 

I also think Astudillo makes it. No turtle? C’mon!

 

However, carrying all three of Schoop, Arráez and Adrianza feels... inefficient?

 

This will be very interesting and very fun (knock on wood).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

You don't need to fake any injuries.  Anyone on the 40 man roster can be part of the playoff roster.  Adrianza can play all over the field and take this situation into account.  9th inning, tie game, 1 out and Miguel Sano is standing on 2nd base.  Adrianza is your guy.  This is a much, much, much more likely scenerio than ever having to use a 13th pitcher in a 5 game series.

Adrianza is just not that fast. That’s the problem.

[JW24]

 

Agreed. I think it would take multiple injuries/flameouts and is super unlikely.

 

That said, when I look at how unlikely the Twins are to use Adrianza in the series for anything meaningful, part of me wishes that they'll have so many strong relief options that they think about leaving him off. Adrianza is really only useful if you have multiple day-to-day injuries that don't allow you to comfortably pull a guy from the roster and replace him.* Isn't it more likely that the Twins would use an extra reliever (assuming Littel or Thorpe pitch well down the stretch) in an extra inning or short-start game than need Adrianza to come off the bench?

Late-game defensive replacements (and guys who can play all over the field) are so crucial in playoff games. Adrianza's defensive versatility alone makes his value to the Twins playoff roster exponentially more valuable than a 13th pitcher.

[Mr. Brooks]

You don't need to fake any injuries. Anyone on the 40 man roster can be part of the playoff roster. Adrianza can play all over the field and take this situation into account. 9th inning, tie game, 1 out and Miguel Sano is standing on 2nd base. Adrianza is your guy. This is a much, much, much more likely scenerio than ever having to use a 13th pitcher in a 5 game series.

I'm not taking Sano out of a tie game for someone who is only marginally faster than him.

 

Adrianza is not fleet of foot. If he has value on the playoff roster, it's as a defensive replacement.

[JW24]

 

Adrianza is just not that fast. That’s the problem.

He is faster than Sano, and a better defender than Sano, and would have significantly more impact in a close game in the 9th inning than a pitcher who never gets in the series.

 

In a 5 game series, where one or two plays/managerial decisions can decide each game, there is no doubt at all Adrianza's value is vastly higher than a 13th pitcher.

[Otto von Ballpark]

* Even then, I'm sure you could fake an injury to a Thorpe or Smeltzer and get Adrianza in.

If you are talking about an injury replacement in the middle of a series, only another pitcher can replace an injured pitcher, and only another position player can replace an injured position player.

 

(And of course, between series, there is no need -- you can just submit a different roster before each series.)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He is faster than Sano, and a better defender than Sano, and would have significantly more impact in a close game in the 9th inning than a pitcher who never gets in the series.

 

In a 5 game series, where one or two plays/managerial decisions can decide each game, there is no doubt at all Adrianza's value is vastly higher than a 13th pitcher.

I agree with the second part, about Adrianza being more valuable than a 13th pitcher. But I agree with the poster above, that Adrianza is only marginally faster than Sano, and not so much faster that you would automatically make that substitution in a spot like that.

[JW24]

 

I agree with the second part, about Adrianza being more valuable than a 13th pitcher. But I agree with the poster above, that Adrianza is only marginally faster than Sano, and not so much faster that you would automatically make that substitution in a spot like that.

Since we aren't in that position (yet) we don't know what the best course of action is. However, as the situation was presented (9th inning, tie game, Sano on 2nd), that run either wins the game for the Twins in the 9th, or puts them ahead prior to playing defense. If the run does not score, Sano is not coming to the plate for at least 1 inning, maybe 2. That is 3-6 outs needed defensively, and in a close game in the post season, having your best defenders on the field in that situation is crucial.

 

Why would you be willing to take Sano out of a game for a defensive replacement, but not be willing to pinch run for him prior? Only reason I can think of is shifting guys around defensively so Sano would move to 1st, Cron (or whoever) comes out, and Adrianza then enters the game at that point in order to upgrade defensively while keeping Sano's bat in the lineup should his spot come up again.

 

I hope Rocco has to make some of these decisions. Nothing is better than playoff baseball

[Only Here in Negative]

 

He is faster than Sano, and a better defender than Sano, and would have significantly more impact in a close game in the 9th inning than a pitcher who never gets in the series.

 

In a 5 game series, where one or two plays/managerial decisions can decide each game, there is no doubt at all Adrianza's value is vastly higher than a 13th pitcher.

 

But is he redundant with Schoop and Arraez already on the roster? Not to mention Marwin? It isn't Sano vs. Adrianza.

[Only Here in Negative]

 

 

Why would you be willing to take Sano out of a game for a defensive replacement, but not be willing to pinch run for him prior? 

Defensive replacement means you're up late. Pinch runner means you're down or tied most likely. In the former you hopefully don't need his bat. In the latter, you are much more likely to need it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Since we aren't in that position (yet) we don't know what the best course of action is. However, as the situation was presented (9th inning, tie game, Sano on 2nd), that run either wins the game for the Twins in the 9th, or puts them ahead prior to playing defense. If the run does not score, Sano is not coming to the plate for at least 1 inning, maybe 2. That is 3-6 outs needed defensively, and in a close game in the post season, having your best defenders on the field in that situation is crucial.

 

Why would you be willing to take Sano out of a game for a defensive replacement, but not be willing to pinch run for him prior? Only reason I can think of is shifting guys around defensively so Sano would move to 1st, Cron (or whoever) comes out, and Adrianza then enters the game at that point in order to upgrade defensively while keeping Sano's bat in the lineup should his spot come up again.

 

I hope Rocco has to make some of these decisions. Nothing is better than playoff baseball

Honestly my preference is to just leave Sano at third and in the lineup. Unless there is a clear situation where he could be pinch run for, like the bottom of the 9th, tie game, one or two outs, singles hitter coming up. It depends.

[Only Here in Negative]

 

If you are talking about an injury replacement in the middle of a series, only another pitcher can replace an injured pitcher, and only another position player can replace an injured position player.

(And of course, between series, there is no need -- you can just submit a different roster before each series.)

 

Interesting and a smart move by MLB to stop gaming of the system. Probably a good argument for Adrianza too, especially with some nagging injuries to guys like Buck, Rosario, Cruz, and Cron.

[JW24]

 

But is he redundant with Schoop and Arraez already on the roster? Not to mention Marwin? It isn't Sano vs. Adrianza.

This, I think, is the toughest argument against Adrianza. With the positional versatility of Marwin and Arraez, Jake Cave is probably the guy who should get Adrianza's spot as a late game pinch runner/defensive replacement. Even still, his value as a defensive replacement is almost nothing if Buxton, Kepler and Rosario are all healthy and in the lineup.

[JW24]

 

Honestly my preference is to just leave Sano at third and in the lineup. Unless there is a clear situation where he could be pinch run for, like the bottom of the 9th, tie game, one or two outs, singles hitter coming up. It depends.

I agree with this.

 

Perhaps a better initial situation would have been if Cron had been on 2nd instead of Sano, and Adrianza was available to pinch run and replace him defensively (Sano slides to 1st).

 

Either way, Adrianza has significantly more value than a 13th pitcher, which was the original topic regarding roster construct. Trying to identify the specific situations he will be used in is an exercise in futility. 

[Only Here in Negative]

 

This, I think, is the toughest argument against Adrianza. With the positional versatility of Marwin and Arraez, Jake Cave is probably the guy who should get Adrianza's spot as a late game pinch runner/defensive replacement. Even still, his value as a defensive replacement is almost nothing if Buxton, Kepler and Rosario are all healthy and in the lineup.

 

Are you now on team 13 pitchers? :-) Or maybe Team Astudillo? His bat control and ability to play catcher may be more valuable. Though of course there's something to leaving with who brought you to the dance. Adrianza has been on this team all year and has been a big cog. Leaving him off has the potential to be disruptive.

 

I wish the Twins had been able to grab Billy Hamilton or someone. The clear value is in having that base stealing threat. Does anyone know a similar guy in AA/AAA?

[howeda7]

I don't see Perez on the roster as a reliever. if he continues to pitch well, you can argue for him in the rotation. Smeltzer and Perez in the bullpen would be redundant.

[howeda7]

 

 

I wish the Twins had been able to grab Billy Hamilton or someone. The clear value is in having that base stealing threat. Does anyone know a similar guy in AA/AAA?

+1. He would be huge as a pinch runner and/or to insert into the line-up when Buxton injures himself next.

[JW24]

 

Are you now on team 13 pitchers? :-) Or maybe Team Astudillo? His bat control and ability to play catcher may be more valuable. Though of course there's something to leaving with who brought you to the dance. Adrianza has been on this team all year and has been a big cog. Leaving him off has the potential to be disruptive.

 

I wish the Twins had been able to grab Billy Hamilton or someone. The clear value is in having that base stealing threat. Does anyone know a similar guy in AA/AAA?

I am not remotely in favor of 13 pitchers. However, in the event of a blowout, Adrianza has shown he can throw an inning if needed.

 

Not in favor of Astudillo either. The Twins hopefully don't need a 3rd catcher and his positional versatility is not needed with Arraez, Marwin, and Adrianza on the roster already.

 

I think it comes down to Cave or Adrianza.

[Number3]

All very interesting for pure discussion but how about whose hot and whose not as the criterion? I think that who performs and who doesn't in those 12 games against Red Sox, Nationals and Indians should have a huge impact on who plays in the playoffs assuming, knock on wood, that they are in the DS. Anyone who tanks in those games or gives an indication that they are not ready for prime time should be on probation. That includes the defensive side in key positions. Putting the best defense possible on the field against Astros and Yankees is paramount.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If everyone is healthy, I put both Cave and Schoop on the roster, probably at the expense of Astudillo.

 

Schoop has an OPS of .933 against LHP while Arraez bats left-handed.

 

Cave has reverse splits this year but those are a temporary illusion more often than not. Last year, he had a significant split in favor of RHP.

 

Those are my bench bat players and make the roster for that reason.

[yarnivek1972]

The Twins have a cheap loogy. His name is Ryan O’Rourke. I don’t know if I would call him a veteran as he only has about 50 IP at the MLB level, but he’s been around. I personally think he would be extremely more useful in September (and hopefully beyond) than Brusdar Graterol, a guy with fewer than 60 IP above A ball.

[Only Here in Negative]

 

+1. He would be huge as a pinch runner and/or to insert into the line-up when Buxton injures himself next.

booo!

 

I don't see Perez on the roster as a reliever. if he continues to pitch well, you can argue for him in the rotation. Smeltzer and Perez in the bullpen would be redundant.

 

I think its unlikely that you don't bring all 5 starters. Most teams do, part of its just a continuity thing.

[Only Here in Negative]

 

The Twins have a cheap loogy. His name is Ryan O’Rourke. I don’t know if I would call him a veteran as he only has about 50 IP at the MLB level, but he’s been around. I personally think he would be extremely more useful in September (and hopefully beyond) than Brusdar Graterol, a guy with fewer than 60 IP above A ball.

 

I forgot about him. That said, he has given up four home runs in 50 innings in AAA with a 5.1 BB/9. The K numbers are now just decent and not elite. I think they're more likely to go with a Thorpe or Smeltzer in that role, even if it is new to them.

 

But interesting to think of him. I'd be terrified of his appearances but he has been around.

[Mike Sixel]

Schoop 100% should be on the roster.

[BeantownTwinsFan]

 

I wish the Twins had been able to grab Billy Hamilton or someone. The clear value is in having that base stealing threat. Does anyone know a similar guy in AA/AAA?

 

Would folks consider Wade (if healthy) or the forgotten man - Nick Gordon - as 2 guys currently on the 40 man?  Any reads on Gordon's speed/baserunning?