Cubs to sign Kimbrel

[Mike Sixel]

Sounds a lot like the complaints when they would not give up top prospects to get Archer who is now performing at replacement level. Also sounds like the complaints when we would not give up top prospects to get Realmuto for two years. Realmuto is still good but our catchers have performed better, especially Garver who has 4 more years under team control after this year. Before that people complained we would not give up a top prospects ( Kepler or Polanco were mentioned) for 2 years of LuCroy. Before that it was Tulo which would have been a nightmare.

The Astros seem to make trades that work, but sure, only point out bad ideas.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't believe I've read a single post that says, or even implies that.

It's possible I missed them though, could you point them out?

MLR pretty much did.

[Mike Sixel]

Everyone has also ignored the fact most of those high AAV relievers have performed poorly. Collectively, they had zero WAR collectively, That's $96M spent on those RPs this year alone and collectively they have produced replacement level value. The year before that people complained we did not sign Davis who was mediocre last year and has only has 14 IP this year and is back on the injured list. Point being, if they could have gotten Kimbrel on a 1 year or even 2 year deal, great, but spending big money on RPs has a really poor track record.

 

The highest paid RP is Britton and we were not getting him away from the Yankees. Britton has .7 bWAR / Same as Ryne Harper

 

Familia is at -.6 WAR

Andrew Miller has 0 bWAR

David Robertson has 0 bWAR

Herrera has -.6 bWAR

Joe Kelly has -.8 bWAR

 

Ottavino has been the only standout (using bWAR as a measure) 1.5 bWAR

And how have the bad guys from AAA that would be their replacements preformed?

[Mr. Brooks]

MLR pretty much did.

Pointing out that they often don't work isn't the same thing as saying never do it.

It's acknowledging that the FO, whether we like it or not, has limited resources. The risk of it not working out has to be weighed.

I read his comments as more of a rebuttal towards the posters who are saying that they should have been willing to pay more than they are comfortable valuing him at, just because that's what it takes to get him.

We all do this in life, everyday. When we go to lunch, we have an approximate idea of what we're willing to pay for a burger. We may really love a car that we look at, but at some point we say no if it crosses a certain budgetary line. Same with buying a house. You put in a fair offer, someone beats it, and you have a choice. You can try to outbid them, but at some point we all have a threshold where we have to walk away, even if we really love the house, right?

[Mike Sixel]

Pointing out that they often don't work isn't the same thing as saying never do it.

It's acknowledging that the FO, whether we like it or not, has limited resources. The risk of it not working out has to be weighed.

I read his comments as more of a rebuttal towards the posters who are saying that they should have been willing to pay more than they are comfortable valuing him at, just because that's what it takes to get him.

We all do this in life, everyday. When we go to lunch, we have an approximate idea of what we're willing to pay for a burger. We may really love a car that we look at, but at some point we say no if it crosses a certain budgetary line. Same with buying a house. You put in a fair offer, someone beats it, and you have a choice. You can try to outbid them, but at some point we all have a threshold where we have to walk away, even if we really love the house, right?

. The next time he says acquiring a RP is a good idea will be the first. Which is cool. He's very consistent in this point. And he has data

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why would that mean we are in serious trouble? $16 million is almost 20% of a likely 2021 budget. Of course that is going to make a difference.

More like 12%? No reason payroll shouldn't be $130 minimum in 2021, considering inflation.

[Mr. Brooks]

More like 12%? No reason payroll shouldn't be $130 minimum in 2021, considering inflation.

Ok sure, I agree. That is still a pretty significant chunk to just say definitively won't matter at all.

[djvang]

Good. Couldn't watch that ridiculous stance when he's looking in for the sign.

[Doomtints]

 

Sounds a lot like the complaints when they would not give up top prospects to get Archer who is now performing at replacement level.  Also sounds like the complaints when we would not give up top prospects to get Realmuto for two years.  Realmuto is still good but our catchers have performed better, especially Garver who has 4 more years under team control after this year.  Before that people complained we would not give up a top prospects ( Kepler or Polanco were mentioned) for 2 years of LuCroy.  Before that it was Tulo which would have been a nightmare.

 

Yes. I honestly can't believe I was screaming into the void when I was raising red flags on Archer and Realmuto. Garver was going to be good, though yes he won't always be as good as he is now he will still be very good for a long time. Garver isn't a guy you block. As for Archer, the best comp I can think of for him is Les Straker, and there's certainly nothing wrong with that but you stick him at the back of the rotation and hope for the best.

[TheLeviathan]

The Astros seem to make trades that work, but sure, only point out bad ideas.

I think it has merit to point out in thissense: those who pound their fist about aggressive moves (who i am among often as well) give the sense that these are no brainers. As if risk doesnt exist.

 

Since that rhetoric is so unwilling to soften and be more of the "I think this helps" vs "we are dumb not to" in tone,posts like MLR's are inevitable and valid.

 

We have goal post movers and chicken littles in here most vocal. Perhaps the chicken littles should question the certain tone of their takes a bit. We all know how easy itd be to drudge up old threads where we all took turns confidently recommending some truly disasterous ideas.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not really. Buxton will be ARB 3 in 2021, and Berrios will be ARB 2. The whole point of an extension, from a player's perspective is that they give up a couple of years of free agency to essentially guarantee their ARB salaries. They might give up a couple million for the sake of security, but it's not like they are going to play their ARB 3 year for a million bucks.

I'd imagine $20 million combined for 2021 if they are extended.

They wouldn't have to get all $16 mil from just Jose and Byron. Likewise, they don't have to get it all from 2021 either.

 

They have $10 mil in guaranteed obligations for 2021 right now. They should be sustaining a $130+ mil payroll every year. I find it rather unbelievable that $26 mil in obligations for that year, known 2 years in advance, would somehow force them to lose a valuable player currently under club control. Give them some credit here!

[Doomtints]

This is a smart move by the Cubs. Their bullpen was even worse than the Twins. All of the teams in the NL Central have a weakness, and the Cubs just did a lot to mitigate theirs.

 

The Twins don't need Kimbrel to win the division this year -- if the Twins collapse, Kimbrel won't be able to stop it -- but they might have needed him for the playoffs and for the years to come.

 

The bullpen has been, at the macro level at least, good so far, but the situation still feels like the Twins don't have a single guy in the pen who could not regress down to nothing at any moment.

 

Having at least one big name in the pen is a luxury the Twins seem steadfastly determined not to have.

[prouster]

The basic sentiment appears to be all free agent relievers are bad and never worth the money. With no MLB ready arms on the farm that leaves trades. So the Twins likely have to give up more than they got for Ryan Pressley to get a guy who is not as good as Ryan Pressley.

Speaking only for myself, the issue is that signing relievers to big contracts is usually dumb, even in the bullpen era.

[Mr. Brooks]

They wouldn't have to get all $16 mil from just Jose and Byron. Likewise, they don't have to get it all from 2021 either.

 

They have $10 mil in guaranteed obligations for 2021 right now. They should be sustaining a $130+ mil payroll every year. I find it rather unbelievable that $26 mil in obligations for that year, known 2 years in advance, would somehow force them to lose a valuable player currently under club control. Give them some credit here!

Well, let's put together a hypothetical 2021 roster that mostly keeps their core intact.

 

C: Garver (ARB1): $4.5 million

C: Astudillo: $0.6 million

1B: Cron (3/35 extension): $11.7

2B: Polanco: $4.3

SS: Lewis/Arraez/Javier etc.:$0.6

3B: Sano (ARB 3): $13.5

UTIL: ?? : $0.6

OF: Rosario (ARB 3): $17.0

OF: Buxton (ARB 3): $15.5

OF: Kepler: $6.5

OF/1B/DH: Kirilloff: $0.6

INF: ??? $0.6

 

SP Berrios (ARB 2): $13.5

SP Odorizzi (4/72): $18.0

SP Gibson (4/72): $18.0

SP Mejia (ARB 1): $2.2

SP Romero/Thorpe,etc: $0.6

RP Rogers (ARB 3): $8.5

RP Parker (2/15): $7.5

RP May (1/4.5): $4.5

RP Moya: $0.6

RP Hildenberger: $0.6

RP Free Agent: $8.0

RP Rookie: $0.6

SP/RP Rookie: $0.6

 

That puts you at $162.8 million, without adding much.

They won't pay that. So, ditch the Cron extension and go with a rookie, that gets you to $151.1 million. Choose Odor or Gibson, instead of both, that gets you to $133.1.

That is more realistic, but now our rotation is pretty shaky.

How are we fitting $16 million in for Kimbrel?

[Riverbrian]

 

This is a smart move by the Cubs. Their bullpen was even worse than the Twins. All of the teams in the NL Central have a weakness, and the Cubs just did a lot to mitigate theirs.

 

The Twins don't need Kimbrel to win the division this year -- if the Twins collapse, Kimbrel won't be able to stop it -- but they might have needed him for the playoffs and for the years to come.

 

The bullpen has been, at the macro level at least, good so far, but the situation still feels like the Twins don't have a single guy in the pen who could not regress down to nothing at any moment.

 

Having at least one big name in the pen is a luxury the Twins seem steadfastly determined not to have.

 

I'm not saying it will be same with Kimbrel but the Cubs have really had an amazing run of bad luck in the free agent market. 

 

Aside from Lester who has done very well. You are looking at Heyward, Darvish and Chatwood. 

 

Ouch

[yarnivek1972]

Well, let's put together a hypothetical 2021 roster that mostly keeps their core intact.

 

C: Garver (ARB1): $4.5 million

C: Astudillo: $0.6 million

1B: Cron (3/35 extension): $11.7

2B: Polanco: $4.3

SS: Lewis/Arraez/Javier etc.:$0.6

3B: Sano (ARB 3): $13.5

UTIL: ?? : $0.6

OF: Rosario (ARB 3): $17.0

OF: Buxton (ARB 3): $15.5

OF: Kepler: $6.5

OF/1B/DH: Kirilloff: $0.6

INF: ??? $0.6

 

SP Berrios (ARB 2): $13.5

SP Odorizzi (4/72): $18.0

SP Gibson (4/72): $18.0

SP Mejia (ARB 1): $2.2

SP Romero/Thorpe,etc: $0.6

RP Rogers (ARB 3): $8.5

RP Parker (2/15): $7.5

RP May (1/4.5): $4.5

RP Moya: $0.6

RP Hildenberger: $0.6

RP Free Agent: $8.0

RP Rookie: $0.6

SP/RP Rookie: $0.6

 

That puts you at $162.8 million, without adding much.

They won't pay that. So, ditch the Cron extension and go with a rookie, that gets you to $151.1 million. Choose Odor or Gibson, instead of both, that gets you to $133.1.

That is more realistic, but now our rotation is pretty shaky.

How are we fitting $16 million in for Kimbrel?

I’d say your projections for Sano and Buxton are both too high. That’s superstar money you are projecting. Neither has demonstrated that level for more than a couple months at a time. Frankly, $4.5 mil for Garver in his first arb year seems steep as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, let's put together a hypothetical 2021 roster that mostly keeps their core intact.

 

C: Garver (ARB1): $4.5 million

C: Astudillo: $0.6 million

1B: Cron (3/35 extension): $11.7

2B: Polanco: $4.3

SS: Lewis/Arraez/Javier etc.:$0.6

3B: Sano (ARB 3): $13.5

UTIL: ?? : $0.6

OF: Rosario (ARB 3): $17.0

OF: Buxton (ARB 3): $15.5

OF: Kepler: $6.5

OF/1B/DH: Kirilloff: $0.6

INF: ??? $0.6

 

SP Berrios (ARB 2): $13.5

SP Odorizzi (4/72): $18.0

SP Gibson (4/72): $18.0

SP Mejia (ARB 1): $2.2

SP Romero/Thorpe,etc: $0.6

RP Rogers (ARB 3): $8.5

RP Parker (2/15): $7.5

RP May (1/4.5): $4.5

RP Moya: $0.6

RP Hildenberger: $0.6

RP Free Agent: $8.0

RP Rookie: $0.6

SP/RP Rookie: $0.6

 

That puts you at $162.8 million, without adding much.

They won't pay that. So, ditch the Cron extension and go with a rookie, that gets you to $151.1 million. Choose Odor or Gibson, instead of both, that gets you to $133.1.

That is more realistic, but now our rotation is pretty shaky.

How are we fitting $16 million in for Kimbrel?

In your last post, you predicted $20 mil combined for Buxton and Berrios. Now it's $29 mil?

 

And now Cron is part of our core and needs to be extended through age 33? And we have to extend Odo and Gibson (through age 35) and pay them $18 mil every season? Hey, if you made this list a couple weeks ago, you could have given the same contract to Martin Perez too!

 

And we're extending Blake Parker at $7.5 mil per for age 36-37, and budgeting an additional $8 mil for a FA reliever -- yet somehow none of this money can be applied toward Kimbrel's $16 mil?

 

And you're confident that Rosario is going to get $5 mil more than Ozuna in arb 3? With Buxton and Sano close behind? If these guys all stay perfectly healthy and keep playing great the rest of 2019 and through 2020, which you seem to be projecting here, we will be able to afford more than a $130 mil payroll in 2021. (And/or they will have great trade value, so moving them before they hit FA may not be a hardship at all -- it might be prudent.)

 

It seems like you are combining wildly optimistic player projections, with extremely pessimistic revenue/payroll projections. It doesn't add up.

 

Not to mention, you seem to be assuming the front office will stop seeking/finding complementary bargains like how we got Cron, Odo, etc. in the first place.

 

12% of an anticipated 2021 payroll isn't nothing, but known well in advance, it's something that can be managed and mitigated by any competent front office without severe hardship.

[Mr. Brooks]

In your last post, you predicted $20 mil combined for Buxton and Berrios. Now it's $29 mil?

 

And now Cron is part of our core and needs to be extended through age 33? And we have to extend Odo and Gibson (through age 35) and pay them $18 mil every season? Hey, if you made this list a couple weeks ago, you could have given the same contract to Martin Perez too!

 

And we're extending Blake Parker at $7.5 mil per for age 36-37, and budgeting an additional $8 mil for a FA reliever -- yet somehow none of this money can be applied toward Kimbrel's $16 mil?

 

And you're confident that Rosario is going to get $5 mil more than Ozuna in arb 3? With Buxton and Sano close behind? If these guys all stay perfectly healthy and keep playing great the rest of 2019 and through 2020, which you seem to be projecting here, we will be able to afford more than a $130 mil payroll in 2021. (And/or they will have great trade value, so moving them before they hit FA may not be a hardship at all -- it might be prudent.)

 

It seems like you are combining wildly optimistic player projections, with extremely pessimistic revenue/payroll projections. It doesn't add up.

 

Not to mention, you seem to be assuming the front office will stop seeking/finding complementary bargains like how we got Cron, Odo, etc. in the first place.

 

12% of an anticipated 2021 payroll isn't nothing, but known well in advance, it's something that can be managed and mitigated by any competent front office without severe hardship.

$20 million combined was the minimum for back loaded extensions. This projection has them playing out year by year.

Your Cron comment is evidence that you didn't read the post all the way through. Same goes for your comment regarding Odorizzi and Gibson.

 

Yes, you could swap out Parker and the FA for Kimbrel, but that makes an already shaky bullpen that I have projected above, and makes it even thinner.

 

I would expect Rosario to get more than Ozuna, yes, mostly due to inflation.

Sano might be high, I don't know. What do you think he'll get in ARB3?

Buxton I actually think I'm likely to be low on. I certainly can't force anyone to join me, but I think what we're seeing right now is Buxton's floor going forward. I expect a perennial fringe MVP candidate.

 

Which projections are wildly optimistic? And why would that affect payroll? Our payroll is always going to be in that 14th-19th range, I don't think performance is going to change that.

 

I don't have the FO finding bargains, because bargains would actually raise my projected payroll above, as all openings except one reliever we're filled with min salaries.

 

Would you care to assemble your 2021 protection, that keeps the core together, and see how Kimbrel fits in?

[Mr. Brooks]

I’d say your projections for Sano and Buxton are both too high. That’s superstar money you are projecting. Neither has demonstrated that level for more than a couple months at a time. Frankly, $4.5 mil for Garver in his first arb year seems steep as well.

A catcher that hits like Garver, you think that's high? That's essentially what Rosario is getting ARB1 as a corner outfielder.

[drivlikejehu]

 

The Astros seem to make trades that work, but sure, only point out bad ideas.

 

This was completely non-responsive to MLR's post. You and others are advocating for specific moves and players -- just because good acquisitions are *possible* doesn't mean you have any idea which ones are actually smart.

 

The Astros do, sure. But they aren't posting here, so when it comes to talking about Kimbrel or anyone else, their front office acumen is utterly irrelevant.

[DiscGolfer]

 

Well, let's put together a hypothetical 2021 roster that mostly keeps their core intact.

C: Garver (ARB1): $4.5 million
C: Astudillo: $0.6 million
1B: Cron (3/35 extension): $11.7
2B: Polanco: $4.3
SS: Lewis/Arraez/Javier etc.:$0.6
3B: Sano (ARB 3): $13.5
UTIL: ?? : $0.6
OF: Rosario (ARB 3): $17.0
OF: Buxton (ARB 3): $15.5
OF: Kepler: $6.5
OF/1B/DH: Kirilloff: $0.6
INF: ??? $0.6

SP Berrios (ARB 2): $13.5
SP Odorizzi (4/72): $18.0
SP Gibson (4/72): $18.0
SP Mejia (ARB 1): $2.2
SP Romero/Thorpe,etc: $0.6
RP Rogers (ARB 3): $8.5
RP Parker (2/15): $7.5
RP May (1/4.5): $4.5
RP Moya: $0.6
RP Hildenberger: $0.6
RP Free Agent: $8.0
RP Rookie: $0.6
SP/RP Rookie: $0.6

That puts you at $162.8 million, without adding much.
They won't pay that. So, ditch the Cron extension and go with a rookie, that gets you to $151.1 million. Choose Odor or Gibson, instead of both, that gets you to $133.1.
That is more realistic, but now our rotation is pretty shaky.
How are we fitting $16 million in for Kimbrel?

 

Util Gonzalez 9M (under contract)

SP Perez 7.5M (option)

DH Cruz 12M (option)

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Util Gonzalez 9M (under contract)

SP Perez 7.5M (option)

DH Cruz 12M (option)

The projected roster you quoted is for 2021.

[bird]

 

I also remember 87 and 91, to be fair.

 

And of course their pathetic failure to win in 1965, right? I blame Jim Pohlad for that debacle.

[USAFChief]

 

And of course their pathetic failure to win in 1965, right? I blame Jim Pohlad for that debacle.

No, of course not. I don't blame Pohlad.

 

I blame Mauer. Dude didn't drive in a single run in the entire Series. You could look it up.

[Craig Arko]

No, of course not. I don't blame Pohlad.

 

I blame Mauer. Dude didn't drive in a single run in the entire Series. You could look it up.

Indeed. He wasn’t even born for another 18 years. Da Bum.

[bird]

 

Indeed. He wasn’t even born for another 18 years. Da Bum.

 

 

Yeah, and even if you cut the guy some slack for not being born yet, he hit too many postseason foul balls.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Which projections are wildly optimistic? And why would that affect payroll? Our payroll is always going to be in that 14th-19th range, I don't think performance is going to change that.

 

Those arb numbers and extensions all seem to assume 2019 health and performance going forward, which has obviously been pretty great. A single slump or injury -- which is likely to occur somewhere -- would knock millions off your estimates.

 

If they keep playing like the 2019 squad, and winning, I think the payroll can grow. If they are at $120-130 mil these past two years, with fan interest -- ticket sales, advertising dollars -- coming off fairly pedestrian .500-ish performances, I could see $140 mil off of a 90 win season, and maybe even $150 mil off a deep playoff run (which adds significant revenue).

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would expect Rosario to get more than Ozuna, yes, mostly due to inflation.

 

Rosario is already getting $690k more than Ozuna as an arb1. How does that level of inflation rise to $5 mil by arb3?

 

And Ozuna had a breakout season after his arb1 award, 149 OPS+, followed by a 107, and still only wound up at $12.25 mil in arb3. Rosario, for all his homers, still only has a 122 OPS+ for 2019 so far, and a 111 career.

 

Seems unlikely that Rosario would get $17 mil in arb3. This is the kind of projection optimism that seems to permeate your list. Which is why in reality, I don't think it would be that difficult to add a $16 mil commitment for 2021 right now.

[USAFChief]

 

Rosario is already getting $690k more than Ozuna as an arb1. How does that level of inflation rise to $5 mil by arb3?

And Ozuna had a breakout season after his arb1 award, 149 OPS+, followed by a 107, and still only wound up at $12.25 mil in arb3. Rosario, for all his homers, still only has a 122 OPS+ for 2019 so far, and a 111 career.

Seems unlikely that Rosario would get $17 mil in arb3. This is the kind of projection optimism that seems to permeate your list. Which is why in reality, I don't think it would be that difficult to add a $16 mil commitment for 2021 right now.

The biggest error in the projection: Odorizzi/Gibson $36M

[Otto von Ballpark]

.

Your Cron comment is evidence that you didn't read the post all the way through. Same goes for your comment regarding Odorizzi and Gibson.

 

For the record, I did read your post all the way through. Your second revision, dropping Cron and one of Gibson/Odo, is probably closer to reality, although it still includes your optimism for Rosario, Berrios, Buxton, etc. as already noted.

 

And that second revision comes in at basically our exact same 2018 payroll, with $15.5 mil allocated for two FA/old relievers. Which actually kind of proves my point that fitting in a $16 Kimbrel commitment for 2021 wouldn't be that hard.

 

If by "breaking up the core" you mean not extending Cron at $11 mil per year through age 33, and Gibson at $18 mil per through age 35, and Parker at $7.5 mil per through age 36 -- well, I think enough of those decisions will be made anyway, regardless of Kimbrel, to give us at least $16 mil in 2021 flexibility.