Article: Offseason Primer: Can Minnesota Mimic Milwaukee's Success?

[USAFChief]

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. It's entirely possible (even likely) the Brewers saw something in Yelich that made them believe he had further room go grow, and/or they helped him make adjustments enabling that growth.

 

That doesn't mean they anticipated him instantly becoming an MVP-caliber hitter, but claiming they got just got lucky sorta downplays the savviness of this move by Stearns and Co.

I'm pretty sure age was part of the equation as well. It's not hard to imagine they thought, coming into his age 26 season, he had room to improve.

[h2oface]

 

Milwaukee?

Have they won anything?  I'd rather see them mimic Houston or Boston

 

Before this is all over, you may just have to add them to the list?

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

Zero long term contracts last off season, one minor trade. No big effort to add to the team last trade deadline, just a tweak here and there. What evidence is there that they will take risks? Until they do, they haven't. So far, they've only taken the risk of trading away players for minor league players.....

 

Thank you for answering even better than I could have. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Zero long term contracts last off season, one minor trade. No big effort to add to the team last trade deadline, just a tweak here and there. What evidence is there that they will take risks? Until they do, they haven't. So far, they've only taken the risk of trading away players for minor league players.....

By all accounts they made an adamant effort to sign the top free agent on the market, to what would've been the biggest FA contract in franchise history. They DID sign Addison Reed to the largest RP contract. I don't really think there's any question that the willingness is there.

[Mike Sixel]

 

By all accounts they made an adamant effort to sign the top free agent on the market, to what would've been the biggest FA contract in franchise history. They DID sign Addison Reed to the largest RP contract. I don't really think there's any question that the willingness is there.

 

They weren't even close on Darvish. And, signing a RP to a 2 year deal is risk taking? That seems like a pretty low bar

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

By all accounts they made an adamant effort to sign the top free agent on the market, to what would've been the biggest FA contract in franchise history. They DID sign Addison Reed to the largest RP contract. I don't really think there's any question that the willingness is there.

 

Agree to disagree on this being "taking a risk"

[Nick Nelson]

 

They weren't even close on Darvish. And, signing a RP to a 2 year deal is risk taking? That seems like a pretty low bar

They reportedly offered $100M+ and he signed for $126M. How is that not close? (Also, as it turns out, they were wise to draw a line and stand their ground, despite all the immense grumbling around here.)

 

Acting like that's not a significant step, nor committing $17M to a free agent reliever, just completely ignores the context and history of this franchise. Yes, it is a low bar, but that's just what it is. Let's be clear: the past regime never made that kind of plunge on the RP market and would've never dreamed of being a serious bidder on someone like Darvish. Do you disagree?

[Monkeypaws]

Mimicking another's recipe for success sounds like a recipe for failure to me. 

 

The Twins need to find their own recipe that matches their situation and personnel.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They reportedly offered $100M+ and he signed for $126M. How is that not close? (Also, as it turns out, they were wise to draw a line and stand their ground, despite all the immense grumbling around here.)

 

Acting like that's not a significant step, nor committing $17M to a free agent reliever, just completely ignores the context and history of this franchise. Yes, it is a low bar, but that's just what it is. Let's be clear: the past regime never made that kind of plunge on the RP market and would've never dreamed of being a serious bidder on someone like Darvish. Do you disagree?

 

I'm not sure a 26% difference is all that close. And, let's be honest.....if it was a real effort, no, they were not "right" about the years, they were lucky they didn't bid the most. Because if we are saying they are lucky to avoid he injury, it happened in year 1, not year 4 or 5 or 6.....

 

I don't really care about the context of Ryan and his unwillingness (or the ownership's) to spend money. They aren't competing against Terry Ryan, they are competing against the other teams in MLB. We'll know a lot more after this off season. 

 

but, I'm not sure how anyone can look at the first two years and say this FO is risk takers.

Edited October 16, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Battle ur tail off]

 

They reportedly offered $100M+ and he signed for $126M. How is that not close?

 

Let's be clear: the past regime never made that kind of plunge on the RP market and would've never dreamed of being a serious bidder on someone like Darvish. Do you disagree?

 

That's EXACTLY the kind of thing the old regime did. Offer something they know won't win the bid, then tell the media how close they were or how hard they tried. 

 

I'm not saying you are wrong in your analysis, but this new regime really hasn't proven to do anything bold as of yet. They've traded away guys that weren't coming back next year. Signed short term deals for low dollar amounts on Free Agents and traded one potential stud relief pitcher. 

 

Maybe they will, this offseason is huge for them. 

[Mr. Brooks]

They reportedly offered $100M+ and he signed for $126M. How is that not close? (Also, as it turns out, they were wise to draw a line and stand their ground, despite all the immense grumbling around here.)

 

Acting like that's not a significant step, nor committing $17M to a free agent reliever, just completely ignores the context and history of this franchise. Yes, it is a low bar, but that's just what it is. Let's be clear: the past regime never made that kind of plunge on the RP market and would've never dreamed of being a serious bidder on someone like Darvish. Do you disagree?

Darvish wasn't going to sign without a player opt out. Any offer that didn't include one wasn't particularly close.

Aside from that, $26 million is a pretty huge difference.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Darvish wasn't going to sign without a player opt out. Any offer that didn't include one wasn't particularly close.
Aside from that, $26 million is a pretty huge difference.

Well, not so much when you consider the Cubs deal was for 6 years and MN's offer was most likely 5. Darvish bet against himself by very possibly taking less annually for a longer deal, and insisting on an opt-out. It was a terrible contract for Chicago and I was glad the Twins said no thanks. Said so at the time.

 

But that is all beside the point because again, by all accounts, they were quite serious in their pursuit of the top free agent on the market.

 

(Also, the only thing I've seen reported is that the Twins offered $100M+, why are we just assuming it was exactly 100 and running with that number? To suit the argument?)

 

 

but, I'm not sure how anyone can look at the first two years and say this FO is risk takers.

Well, no one said that. The original statement in question was that they are unwilling to take chances or risks. I find it dubious. They were deep in Dozier trade talks their first offseason and they were in on Darvish all of last winter.

 

They just weren't going to take a risk that didn't make sense, and given how things have played out, I hardly think it's something to be criticized.

[ChrisKnutson]

If Twins FO were to follow the Brewer’s blueprint, the closest thing to the Yelich trade that they could replicate is if they were to make a trade for the D’backs’s SS/3B/2B Ketel Marte, who like Yelich, has the tools to be an All-Star (probably not MVP tho).

 

Hypothetically, a deal for Marte would probably require giving up Stephen Gonsalves, Wander Javier, and maybe even Lamonte Wade.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Also, if the Twins were to follow the Brewer blueprint on handling Alcala the same way the Brewers handled Hader, that would mean promoting Alcala in mid-2020 after Alcala makes a dozen starts at AAA with a 5 ERA and 6 walks per 9, in other words, so wild that he’s ineffective. And then the Twins would have to move Alcala directly to the bullpen after the promotion, and Alcala would be successful there.

 

Seems unlikely the Twins would do something like that for a guy who “can’t find the strike zone” in AAA, or have it work out if they did.

Edited October 17, 2018 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[jtkoupal]

Yeah the Twins could mimic the Brewers' success.... IF they acquire 2 MVP candidates and build a dominant bullpen. It's gonna take more than a few modest FA signings to live up to what the Brewers have done.

 

In fairness, though, the Twins do have a better rotation, so the team will be built a little different. However, too much needs to get done for them to realistically turn it around that drastically in one offseason.

 

The Twins could very well be better than 78-84 next year, but 95 wins doesn't seem particularly realistic.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, not so much when you consider the Cubs deal was for 6 years and MN's offer was most likely 5. Darvish bet against himself by very possibly taking less annually for a longer deal, and insisting on an opt-out. It was a terrible contract for Chicago and I was glad the Twins said no thanks. Said so at the time.

 

But that is all beside the point because again, by all accounts, they were quite serious in their pursuit of the top free agent on the market.

 

(Also, the only thing I've seen reported is that the Twins offered $100M+, why are we just assuming it was exactly 100 and running with that number? To suit the argument?)

 

 

Well, no one said that. The original statement in question was that they are unwilling to take chances or risks. I find it dubious. They were deep in Dozier trade talks their first offseason and they were in on Darvish all of last winter.

 

They just weren't going to take a risk that didn't make sense, and given how things have played out, I hardly think it's something to be criticized.

Perhaps they thought they were serious. But again, without a player opt out, it wasn't. Darvish wanted a player opt out, and someone was going to give him one.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yeah the Twins could mimic the Brewers' success.... IF they acquire 2 MVP candidates and build a dominant bullpen. It's gonna take more than a few modest FA signings to live up to what the Brewers have done.

 

In fairness, though, the Twins do have a better rotation, so the team will be built a little different. However, too much needs to get done for them to realistically turn it around that drastically in one offseason.

 

The Twins could very well be better than 78-84 next year, but 95 wins doesn't seem particularly realistic.

 

I think 95 wins is very plausible.  For one, Cleveland is about to lose their two best players from an already weak bullpen.  Their starting staff is still awesome, but they can be challenged.

 

For two, the team has the trade assets in the minors to supplement any signings with trade value.  In fact, of the additions they make to improve, I hope the majority come from trade.  The FA signings should hopefully fill in the gaps/bullpen.