Gross idea? Or Good Idea to Include Grossman in 2019?

[Thrylos]

 

Honest question:

Does Astudillo’s nightmarish outing as a pitcher impact his WAR number? It certainly wouldn’t help it.

 

Nah.  That's his hitting fWAR.  Each player has a hitting and a pitching WAR. 

 

Same way that pitchers' WAR is not impacted by their hitting

[DocBauer]

On a team with Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Cave, and Austin, I'm not sure where you expect to play Grossman so he can get those leadoff PAs.

A valid point to be sure. My counter would be Cave is the 4th OF, not a starter, who may even DH on occasion. Austin would be the starting 1B. Everyone takes days off and the lineup is always juggled somewhat as a result. Of course, trades and FA could jumble the entire structure of the roster and daily lineup.

 

I am not advocating nor dismissing Grossman. But I do think as the primary DH who occasionally plays a corner OF spot, he's a least worth considering for this role. I'm just not sure there is a good, viable candidate for the leadoff role with Mauer, theoretically, retiring.

[Danchat]

 

Here is some food for thought: 

 

Robbie Grossman in 129 Games and 465 PAs, had exactly the same fWAR that Willans Astudillo had in 30 games and 97 PAs.   Likely cannot have both on the Twins' bench.

Which one deserves to be there?

Having a catcher who can put up those offensive numbers is far, far more valuable than a DH-only guy like Grossman who is, at best, a bad defensive OF.

[Twins33]

He's a DH/bench guy only in my eyes. If the Twins can get a better player than that in his place then I am all for it. Position flexibility is becoming more and more important and he does not have it.

[Mike Sixel]

You want a below average hitter at DH? Mind. Boggling.

[Minfidel]

Grossman is a professional hitter. He has his limitations, but he also has a role. I said at the beginning of the year that a good team could use 150 to 200 at-bats in a season from him. I also said that a bad team gives him 250+ at-bats, and this was a bad team. That wasn’t his fault, though. I think he has a (limited) role on this team in ‘19, with the moxie to handle some leverage at-bats that the younger players would struggle with.

[snepp]

Limit him strictly to road games (+54 points ops vs home), in the second half of the season (+48 vs first), and only against lefties (+75).

[Platoon]

Limit him strictly to road games (+54 points ops vs home), in the second half of the season (+48 vs first), and only against lefties (+75).

I would like to add: only against starting pitchers whose last name starts with a "Z", on Friday afternoon games!

[TheLeviathan]

He's started 65% of games each of the last 2 seasons. Is that considered a bench role these days?

Well, that’s more about Buxton right? But that’s why I want a true (and good) CF backup.

 

Though, if Austin is on the roster and playing corner OF on occasion, it probably squeezes him out.

[wabene]

Indeed.  Perfect attributes for an NL PH.  Thus, he should be included in a package for a top of the rotation pitcher

Not another NL pitcher!

[Vanimal46]

Well, that’s more about Buxton right? But that’s why I want a true (and good) CF backup.

 

Though, if Austin is on the roster and playing corner OF on occasion, it probably squeezes him out.

This year certainly it was about Buxton not being here. 71 out of his 105 starts were in the OF.

 

Last year he was more of a DH - starting 61 out of his 106 at that spot.

[ashbury]

For the Twins he has been consistently above Replacement, but below Average - both by the eye test and by analytic methods. That kind of player should be an alternate, not a starter, if you can possibly help it. He should be on the bubble, in terms of the team's roster planning. Much depends on how much you trust Buxton.

 

His being above Replacement, it's not necessarily trivial to replace Grossman, but looking at how he was acquired (released twice), there will be alternatives even if no one in-house were present. Assuming he would get a pay raise via arbitration, already making $2M in 2018, it's very possible that a better use for the relatively small amount of money he'll command could be found.

 

Bottom line, too much outside Grossman's control will determine his fate, to answer the original question.

[DocBauer]

You want a below average hitter at DH? Mind. Boggling.

Nope. Want the best player and hitter I can at every position. But there is no obvious candidate to fill the lead off role. With needs such as an infielder, or two, and a reliever, or two, I am speculating a role for Grossman to fill.

[Rosterman]

The Twins starting lineup. All depends on Sano. If Sano stays at third and not DH, and Austin is at 1B. You then have Grossman as DH. You have a bench of Garver, Adrianza and Cave. Hopefully you can drop a bullpen arm and keep Astudillo. I don't see anyone else cracking the Twins roster except for whomever you put at second or shortstop. So the Twins are set if they are in rebuild mood with actually one player too many at the well, and LaMonte Wade, Luis Arraez and Zander Wiel on the 40-man (and Brian Navaretto perhaps) and all at Rochester.

 

I'm not seeing the fire being set in the Hot Stove during the pf-season unless it is in minor league vets and maybe a bullpen arm at best.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins starting lineup. All depends on Sano. If Sano stays at third and not DH, and Austin is at 1B. You then have Grossman as DH. You have a bench of Garver, Adrianza and Cave. Hopefully you can drop a bullpen arm and keep Astudillo. I don't see anyone else cracking the Twins roster except for whomever you put at second or shortstop. So the Twins are set if they are in rebuild mood with actually one player too many at the well, and LaMonte Wade, Luis Arraez and Zander Wiel on the 40-man (and Brian Navaretto perhaps) and all at Rochester.

 

I'm not seeing the fire being set in the Hot Stove during the pf-season unless it is in minor league vets and maybe a bullpen arm at best.

 

if that's the plan, good luck getting anyone to the games.......they have 40-60MM in money to spend....

 

Why not just DH Astudillo in that scenario. He can play defense too......he's >>>>>>>>>>>>Grossman.

[Vanimal46]

I would like to add: only against starting pitchers whose last name starts with a "Z", on Friday afternoon games!

Barry Zito still pitches in the major leagues?!

[yarnivek1972]

Nope. Want the best player and hitter I can at every position. But there is no obvious candidate to fill the lead off role. With needs such as an infielder, or two, and a reliever, or two, I am speculating a role for Grossman to fill.

Polanco would be a leadoff candidate. He’s got good contact ability, sees a fair amount of pitches and generally swings at pitches he should and lays off pitches he should.

[Ryan Atkins]

I think Grossman is a serviceable big league player. He has value. But...

 

Here is where he was at on August 1st: .249AVG/ .330OB/ .359SLG/ .689OPS

 

Those numbers were boosted in what amounted to "slop" time at the end of the season. Nevertheless, if you need a 4th outfielder, I would have no problem with Grossman filling that role.

 

I think we all want to see Rosario-Buxton-Kepler healthy and productive all year long, but if one of those ends up needing to be replaced with a Cave or Granite, then you will have a greater need for Grossman.

[jkcarew]

Grossman has established that he is pretty consistently a SLIGHTLY above league-average hitter.  But, that's really not what a GOOD team would want in an every-day DH.  Meanwhile, the offense isn't quite enough to carry the glove in the outfield on anything but an emergency/short-term basis.

 

Leaving only the role of bench bat...on a good team.  Unfortunately, I'm not sure that role will continue to exist in this era of rosters flooded with pitchers.  The Twins may be forced to go with an option with more defensive flexibility.  Question is, how much offense will it cost to do that?  Guys that have proved league-average bats...and defensive flexibility...and don't have terrible righty/lefty splits...are relatively rare, not easy to get.

[DocBauer]

Polanco would be a leadoff candidate. He’s got good contact ability, sees a fair amount of pitches and generally swings at pitches he should and lays off pitches he should.

To me, he would be the only guy that really fit that spot. Honestly, I think he has the ability to do well there. (I think Kepler could also do well there if this is the year he evens out his splits. But if that happens, I think he's more valuable hitting lower in the order). Now, Molitor will not be constructing the lineup next year, but I really like the way Polanco contributes with Rosario in some combination of them in the 2 and 3 spots.

 

Which brings me back to the Grossman idea at #1, his job being to work the count and get OB for the hitters behind him, hopefully with a good enough BA and some pop to contribute when guys at the bottom of the order are on.

 

Hey, I'm not advocating this is the IDEAL choice. I would love a trade or FA signing for a guy who could DH daily, maybe play the field a day or two here and there, and provide the OB Grossman does, but as a better threat. But this teams needs a RP, or two. They need at least 1 good infielder, and probably a decent 2nd option for competition and depth. (I honestly believe these may be of greater need and importance than a SP, unless we bring in a top of the order starter). So unless we can make these moves and STILL find a veteran guy to bring in for the job, I'm simply wondering if this is an option that has merit.

[Vanimal46]

Grossman has established that he is pretty consistently a SLIGHTLY above league-average hitter. But, that's really not what a GOOD team would want in an every-day DH. Meanwhile, the offense isn't quite enough to carry the glove in the outfield on anything but an emergency/short-term basis.

 

Leaving only the role of bench bat...on a good team. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that role will continue to exist in this era of rosters flooded with pitchers. The Twins may be forced to go with an option with more defensive flexibility. Question is, how much offense will it cost to do that? Guys that have proved league-average bats...and defensive flexibility...and don't have terrible righty/lefty splits...are relatively rare, not easy to get.

There's one available this winter! Marwin Gonzalez plays all over the field in Houston and one year removed from a .907 OPS season... I'd advocate for him over Grossman on the bench any day. Probably Adrianza too.

[DocBauer]

Grossman has established that he is pretty consistently a SLIGHTLY above league-average hitter.  But, that's really not what a GOOD team would want in an every-day DH.  Meanwhile, the offense isn't quite enough to carry the glove in the outfield on anything but an emergency/short-term basis.

 

Leaving only the role of bench bat...on a good team.  Unfortunately, I'm not sure that role will continue to exist in this era of rosters flooded with pitchers.  The Twins may be forced to go with an option with more defensive flexibility.  Question is, how much offense will it cost to do that?  Guys that have proved league-average bats...and defensive flexibility...and don't have terrible righty/lefty splits...are relatively rare, not easy to get.

In my ideal world, the Twins will have enough SP to carry only a 7 man bullpen. That allows a 5 man bench of Garver/Castro, Cave, Adrianza, another utility player (hopefully/possibly Astudillo, and then one more spot. That spot could be a primary DH, who can HOPEFULLY play in the field once in a while without embarassing himself. Once again, is there room, and is there a guy out there, to add who can be mkre of a threat than Grossman?

 

There is no rule that states your DH can't be your lead off hitter. I'm reminded of many years ago when the Angels used Brian Downing as their primary DH and #1 hitter. Wade Boggs was an elite hitter and OB machine for Boston, but not a real HR hitter, and had no speed, but he did a great job at the top of the order. Mauer's best role was finally found...albeit late...as the #1 hitter for the Twins.

 

I want a roster that is flexible, absolutely. My above bench options provide that, IMO, and even most of the projected starters can flex to other positions. I'm just thinking there is room for a guy to be the primary DH and and hit in that #1 spot.

[DocBauer]

There's one available this winter! Marwin Gonzalez plays all over the field in Houston and one year removed from a .907 OPS season... I'd advocate for him over Grossman on the bench any day. Probably Adrianza too.

Now, I really like this idea, or someone similar. He offers versatility, seems to be an OK hitter, and offers some pop. His splits aren't bad for a switch hitter either. My concern is his career OB is not very good, but not bad the past 2 years at .377 and .324.

[yarnivek1972]

In my ideal world, the Twins will have enough SP to carry only a 7 man bullpen. That allows a 5 man bench of Garver/Castro, Cave, Adrianza, another utility player (hopefully/possibly Astudillo, and then one more spot. That spot could be a primary DH, who can HOPEFULLY play in the field once in a while without embarassing himself. Once again, is there room, and is there a guy out there, to add who can be mkre of a threat than Grossman?

 

There is no rule that states your DH can't be your lead off hitter. I'm reminded of many years ago when the Angels used Brian Downing as their primary DH and #1 hitter. Wade Boggs was an elite hitter and OB machine for Boston, but not a real HR hitter, and had no speed, but he did a great job at the top of the order. Mauer's best role was finally found...albeit late...as the #1 hitter for the Twins.

 

I want a roster that is flexible, absolutely. My above bench options provide that, IMO, and even most of the projected starters can flex to other positions. I'm just thinking there is room for a guy to be the primary DH and and hit in that #1 spot.

Little remembered fact (because he almost never did so afterward): Dan Gladden played his first game for the Twins as their DH.

 

Of course, that was likely because he had never played in the Dome before and the Twins opened at home. TK didn’t want to throw him out there before getting a chance to practice under the roof. As I recall, it was SOP for call ups/new guys to take fly balls after the first night game because playing the roof at night was much different than daytime - which it would be prior to game time.

 

Tom Kelly putting players in position to succeed. It’s why he has two rings.

[DocBauer]

Little remembered fact (because he almost never did so afterward): Dan Gladden played his first game for the Twins as their DH.

Of course, that was likely because he had never played in the Dome before and the Twins opened at home. TK didn’t want to throw him out there before getting a chance to practice under the roof. As I recall, it was SOP for call ups/new guys to take fly balls after the first night game because playing the roof at night was much different than daytime - which it would be prior to game time.

Tom Kelly putting players in position to succeed. It’s why he has two rings.

Great post! Especially about TK!

 

But you also help prove my point about the DH and lead off spot. Who says your DH has to be a middle of the order slugger who can't play a position? Who says he has to be a SB demon? His primary job is to work the count, hopefully, and get OB. His secondary job is to hopefully be some kind of threat when the bottom of the order produces and gets OB ahead of him. (After all, he's only guaranteed to LO once per game).

 

Let us be optimists, for a moment, and say that Buxton and Sano will be healthy and re-set for 2019. Let us also assume, not a stretch, that Kepler evens out his splits and Austin's production and potential, despite some BA/SO questions, is not smoke and mirrors. Not really to crazy to imagine, yes?

 

1] Grossman/FA/Trade-DH

2] Rosario-LF

3] Polanco-2B/SS

4] Sano-3B

5] Kepler-RF

6] Austin-1B

7] Garver/Castro-C

8] Buxton-CF

9] Unamed infielder-SS/2B

 

Not trying to deviate off the original topic, as it's still there. We need a guy in that #1 spot to lead off and keep things going when he doesn't. Barring a current roster surprise, (Buxton?), milb surprise, (Wade?), or unknown acquisition, someone needs to fill that role.

[jkcarew]

There's one available this winter! Marwin Gonzalez plays all over the field in Houston and one year removed from a .907 OPS season... I'd advocate for him over Grossman on the bench any day. Probably Adrianza too.

But my point would be that a guy like Gonzalez is not going to sign anywhere for a bench role...or bench money. He’s already essentially an every-day player even while playing for the best team in baseball.

 

I’d take him, no doubt about that...but we’re talking top super-utility guys now...rare. He’ll have similar leverage as will Escobar both in terms of money and where he wants to make his money. Also the same age. I do think the Twins should take an aggressive look in that direction, though...especially, if Escobar is not looking to come back.

[TheLeviathan]

 

There's one available this winter! Marwin Gonzalez plays all over the field in Houston and one year removed from a .907 OPS season... I'd advocate for him over Grossman on the bench any day. Probably Adrianza too.

 

I don't think he's signing on to be a bench player anywhere.  I'm ok paying him starter money though, but that's what you'll have to do.